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September 2011 NPD Predictions - closes October 10

D

donny2112

Member
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, October 10th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: August 28-October 1 (5 weeks, August was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: October 13th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[NDS]
[PS3]
[WII]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[360] 400K        [360] 400 thousand
[360] 400,000     [360] 400.000
[360] 400000      [360] - 400000


Potential hardware impacting events in September:
Red 3DS - September 9 (23 days)
Gears of War 3 320GB 360 Slim - September 20 (12 days)
Madden's release falls inside of the September 2011 NPD period. Last year it had 19 days in the August 2010 NPD period.


August's Results - thanks to EviLore/Nirolak

EviLore said:
Hardware
Xbox 360: 308K (-13.7%)
Nintendo 3DS: 235K
PlayStation 3: 218K (-3.5%) [Comes from press release statement math and known numbers.]
Wii: 190K (-22.2%)
Nintendo DS: 165K (-51.9%)
Click to expand...

Aug-10 -> Sep-10 transition:

Code: 
      Aug-10  Sep-10   % change
360     357K    484K   + 36%
NDS     343K    403K   + 17%
PS3     226K    312K   + 38%
WII     244K    254K   +  4%

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
G

Goldmund

Member
walking fiend said:
aren't 360 prediction high? does some one have YoY for the past months? I believe they have been decreasing?
Click to expand...
My predictions have always been and will continue to be wild guesses. My ranking isn't all bad, despite this fact.
 
B

Boney

Banned
walking fiend said:
aren't 360 prediction high? does some one have YoY for the past months? I believe they have been decreasing?
Click to expand...
Well Gears 3 and it's budle released so.

I just wonder if 3DS is gonna decline this month.
 
B

BurntPork

Banned
walking fiend said:
aren't 360 prediction high? does some one have YoY for the past months? I believe they have been decreasing?
Click to expand...
It's because of Gears 3.

Boney said:
Well Gears 3 and it's budle released so.

I just wonder if 3DS is gonna decline this month.
Click to expand...
Almost definitely, sadly.
 
B

BurntPork

Banned
Boney said:
Keep in mind that September always sees and increase in hardware.
Click to expand...
Yes, but an $80 price cut inflates hardware numbers.

That said, with Flare Red and SF64 launching, I think it'll still stay above 200k. I'd love if it could hit 250k, though.
 
D

donny2112

Member
walking fiend said:
does some one have YoY for the past months? I believe they have been decreasing?
Click to expand...

yoy_360-16.png
 
B

BurntPork

Banned
donny2112 said:
[360] 375K
[3DS] 345K
[PS3] 275K
[WII] 225K
[NDS] 195K



Just take out the "Xbox" part, and it'll be fine. :)
Click to expand...
And "DS" needs to be changed to "NDS"

That 3DS prediction... Did you mean to put 245k?
 
O

Orgen

Member
[360] 391K
[3DS] 316K
[PS3] 269K
[WII] 232K
[NDS] 198K

walking fiend said:
aren't 360 prediction high? does some one have YoY for the past months? I believe they have been decreasing?
Click to expand...

No they haven't. And if the 360 can sell 308K in 4 weeks, it can easily sell 400K in 5 weeks (and + Gears 3 bundle).
 
W

walking fiend

Member
donny2112 said:
graph
Click to expand...
thx for the graph donny.
Judging by past number, and assuming GeoW having a H3 effect, I see where those 350-400K 360 are coming

And does anyone have DS numbers now?! :(

3DS should normally sell less than last month, but it should have replaced DS to some extent as well, that is YoY DS+3DS should probably stay the same and 3DS may sell good this month as well, or even increase a bit because of the new red release. Though, really hard to predict how much of DS it'll manage to replace considering the slow propagation of 3DS news in the US.

OK, got all the data I thought I need:

[360] 440,000
[3DS] 255,000
[NDS] 175,000
[PS3] 344,000
[WII] 250,000
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Dedication Through Light said:
How is 360 getting half a mln units in September on Gears 3? Expecting a 200K increase over last month is just shocking to me.
Click to expand...


It sold 75k a week last month and the 500k predictions are expecting 100k a week. I'm not expecting it, but huge releases could cause 33% weekly increases.
 
D

donny2112

Member
BurntPork said:
That 3DS prediction... Did you mean to put 245k?
Click to expand...

No. :p

walking fiend said:
3DS should normally sell less than last month,
Click to expand...

Remember that the price drop happened in the middle of the month last month, so the weekly average was higher for the last two weeks than it was for the month. It may have gone down since the end of August, too, but just don't forget that the 3DS weekly average for August isn't a good picture of how sales went each week last month for the system.
 
B

BurntPork

Banned
Duxxy3 said:
[360] 480,000
[3DS] 160,000
[NDS] 120,000
[PS3] 200,000
[WII] 145,000
Click to expand...
Are you remembering to take into account that five weeks are being counted this month as opposed to four last month? Everything except 360 getting big drops is extremely unlikely, especially those enormous Nintendo plummets.
 
B

Boney

Banned
donny2112 said:
No. :p



Remember that the price drop happened in the middle of the month last month, so the weekly average was higher for the last two weeks than it was for the month. It may have gone down since the end of August, too, but just don't forget that the 3DS weekly average for August isn't a good picture of how sales went each week last month for the system.
Click to expand...
Not only that, but there's was no big name title that would incentivise people to get it right away, other than the ambassador program. So 3DS sales could go up on both, DS backlog strength, and end of summer effect that will propell it upwards.

It can go both ways, but selling 300k shouldn't be unreachable
 
Duxxy3

Duxxy3

Member
BurntPork said:
Are you remembering to take into account that five weeks are being counted this month as opposed to four last month? Everything except 360 getting big drops is extremely unlikely, especially those enormous Nintendo plummets.
Click to expand...

Is every prediction being challenged this month?

Nintendo released nothing. Sony and Microsoft are competing for the same money and Microsoft released the bigger game and had a system bundle with it.
 
B

BurntPork

Banned
Duxxy3 said:
Is every prediction being challenged this month?

Nintendo released nothing. Sony and Microsoft are competing for the same money and Microsoft released the bigger game and had a system bundle with it.
Click to expand...
Nintendo released Star Fox 64 3D, Kirby Mass Attack, and the Flame Red 3DS this month. They released nothing last month. It's pretty bold to say that the weekly average for Nintendo handhelds will drop 44% this month. PS3's average should be up due to the price cut. You're free to make your own predictions, but I'm just warning you that those predictions seem a bit random and uninformed.
 
Duxxy3

Duxxy3

Member
BurntPork said:
Nintendo released Star Fox 64 3D, Kirby Mass Attack, and the Flame Red 3DS this month. They released nothing last month. It's pretty bold to say that the weekly average for Nintendo handhelds will drop 44% this month. PS3's average should be up due to the price cut. You're free to make your own predictions, but I'm just warning you that those predictions seem a bit random and uninformed.
Click to expand...

None of those are nintendo system sellers. And i could say that the 3DS saw a bump just because of the 3DS price drop. Those that were interested in the system but wanted a lower price bought it in august.

The PS3 price drop has done almost nothing in north america. In september it had to compete with Gears 3 and its system bundle.

I may be off on my numbers but this year it seems safer to bet low. Hardware sales have been pretty crap all year except on the 360 and pre-august DS.
 
M

MikeE21286

Member
Haven't played in a while. Should be fun

BurntPork said:
Are you remembering to take into account that five weeks...
Click to expand...

Well no I wasn't good sir :p

[360] 425k
[3DS] 190k
[NDS] 180k
[PS3] 320k
[WII] 240k
 
W

watershed

Banned
[360] 370K
[3DS] 250K
[NDS] 145K
[PS3] 200K
[WII] 180K

I'm trying to be conservative in my estimates this month as I was way off for August.
 
T

Thoraxes

Member
[360] 359K
[3DS] 286K
[NDS] 246K
[PS3] 213K
[WII] 159K

The only thing I got even close to last month was the 3DS. I got the 3DS exact though, right on the money. Just hoping I replicate that success.
 
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