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September 2011 NPD Predictions - closes October 10

M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
UberTag said:
If they've had a weekly decrease in sales in September despite the launch of Resistance 3 and their new ad campaign? Probably not.

At least they're set up nicely for month-over-month increases through the holiday season.

370K+ should have resulted in a lot more pomp and circumstance in Sony's PR blurb.
Click to expand...

Yeah, they would've said it, knowing how they work.
...So far, just FYI, lolchartz predictions are much nearer to real numbers than Pachter & friends' ones :lol
 
S

Saiyar

Unconfirmed Member
Elios83 said:
Madden and Resistance 3 this year for them, against........nothing last september?
Click to expand...

Dead Rising 2 was the biggest new PS3 game. It sold 370k on all platforms. The fact that COD:MW2 was in the top 10 suggests software was low so 52% YoY does seem realistic.

Looking at Augusts sales 52% increase MoM would be abysmal.
 
G

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
Kusagari said:
lol where all the people who said Gears wouldn't beat Madden combined.
Click to expand...
WHo said that and how do we know Madden combined is not more that Gears?
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
MS PR
Xbox 360 maintains its lead over the current-generation console market, poised to finish 2011 as the best-selling console.

Kinect momentum continues with a growing portfolio of more than 75 Kinect for Xbox 360 titles in the market by holiday – four times larger than last holiday. A robust Kinect portfolio, blockbuster game releases, major entertainment partnerships and new hardware offerings prime Xbox 360 for a record holiday sales season.

September 2011 NPD highlights include:
· Holding 42 percent share of the overall current-generation console market, Xbox 360 sold 438,000 units in September, maintaining the number-one console spot in the U.S. for 2011. This marks the seventh consecutive month Xbox 360 has had more than 40 percent of the current-generation console market share. (Source: NPD Group, September 2011)

· Total retail spend on the Xbox 360 platform in September (hardware, software and accessories) reached $534 million, the most for any console in the U.S. and more than total retail spend from the current-generation console competition combined. (Source: NPD Group, September 2011)

· During the month of September, Xbox 360 held six of the top ten console game titles including: “Gears of War 3,” “Madden NFL 12,” “Dead Island,” “FIFA Soccer 12,” “NHL 12” and “Deus EX: Human Revolution.” (Source: NPD Group, September 2011)


“Gears of War 3” launched on September 20 and sales have already soared past three million copies worldwide* in the first week, pushing the franchise beyond one billion dollars in lifetime sales*.

The month of October is packed with exclusive Xbox 360 title launches including “Forza Motorsport 4” and “Kinectimals Now with Bears!” launching earlier this week and “Dance Central 2” and “Kinect Sports: Season Two” available on Oct. 25. Consumers are also looking forward to “Kinect: Disneyland Adventures” and “Halo: Combat Evolved Anniversary” on Nov. 15.

In addition to a robust holiday portfolio with something for everyone, Microsoft is rolling out the next generation of TV entertainment on Xbox LIVE, bringing a breadth of content providers to Xbox 360 and innovative user experiences unmatched by any other games or entertainment devices. With nearly 40 world-leading TV and entertainment providers, including Bravo, Comcast, HBO GO, BBC and Televisa, the platform is taking a major step toward realizing its vision to bring all the entertainment you want, shared with the people you care about, made easy.

All of the entertainment, partner support, record growth and sales momentum make us confident that Xbox 360 will have another record year.
Click to expand...
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Nintendo PR
Nintendo News

Nintendo DS Crosses 50 Million Units Sold

The best-selling video game system in U.S. history reached another milestone in September: Lifetime sales of the Nintendo DS™ family of systems have surpassed 50 million units, according to the NPD Group, which tracks video game sales in the United States.

“The Nintendo DS forever changed the gaming landscape, and the fact that consumers continue to embrace the platform is a testament to its value and mass appeal,” said Scott Moffitt, Nintendo of America’s executive vice president of Sales & Marketing. “Our hand-held story continues with the Nintendo 3DS system, which just had its second consecutive month of growth and enters its first holiday season with a monster lineup of games, including Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7.”

Other Nintendo milestones reached in September include:

Nintendo sold more than 260,000 Nintendo 3DS™ portable entertainment systems, an increase of more than 10 percent from the previous month. Nintendo has sold nearly 450,000 units of Nintendo 3DS following a price reduction on Aug. 12.
The Legend of Zelda™: Ocarina of Time™ 3D became the first Nintendo 3DS title to surpass 500,000 total units sold in the United States.
Nintendo sold more than 647,000 total hardware units in September, including 240,000 Wii™ systems and more than 145,000 units of the Nintendo DS family.
The 273 million software units sold for the Nintendo DS family equates to more than 107,000 games being sold per day, every day for almost seven years. More than 273 million units of software have been sold for the platform in the United States, including 24 of the top 25 and 43 of the top 50 best-selling portable games in this hand-held generation.
Click to expand...
 
F

Fernando Rocker

Banned
 
G

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
I don't know why Sony missed the opportunity to mention they are the only console with YoY growth.
 
S

Seda

Member
Nintendo DS Crosses 50 Million Units Sold

The best-selling video game system in U.S. history reached another milestone in September: Lifetime sales of the Nintendo DS™ family of systems have surpassed 50 million units, according to the NPD Group, which tracks video game sales in the United States.

“The Nintendo DS forever changed the gaming landscape, and the fact that consumers continue to embrace the platform is a testament to its value and mass appeal,” said Scott Moffitt, Nintendo of America’s executive vice president of Sales & Marketing. “Our hand-held story continues with the Nintendo 3DS system, which just had its second consecutive month of growth and enters its first holiday season with a monster lineup of games, including Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7.”

Other Nintendo milestones reached in September include:

Nintendo sold more than 260,000 Nintendo 3DS™ portable entertainment systems, an increase of more than 10 percent from the previous month. Nintendo has sold nearly 450,000 units of Nintendo 3DS following a price reduction on Aug. 12.
The Legend of Zelda™: Ocarina of Time™ 3D became the first Nintendo 3DS title to surpass 500,000 total units sold in the United States.
Nintendo sold more than 647,000 total hardware units in September, including 240,000 Wii™ systems and more than 145,000 units of the Nintendo DS family.
The 273 million software units sold for the Nintendo DS family equates to more than 107,000 games being sold per day, every day for almost seven years. More than 273 million units of software have been sold for the platform in the United States, including 24 of the top 25 and 43 of the top 50 best-selling portable games in this hand-held generation.
For more information about Nintendo, visit http://www.nintendo.com.
Click to expand...

http://nintendoeverything.com/75878/nintendo-responds-to-september-2011-npd-data/

EDIT:BAH
 
U

user_nat

THE WORDS! They'll drift away without the _!
Kusagari said:
lol where all the people who said Gears wouldn't beat Madden combined.
Click to expand...
I'm right here.
Pretty happy to be wrong about that lol

edit: I wasn't wrong.. even better!
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
...Oh. A...bit disappointed by 3DS number.
Not bad, however, but not so good as I hoped (300k)

EDIT: DS did worse than last month?
With 5 weeks instad of four?
This is good... and even scary: what DS loses go to 3DS XD
 
S

Saiyar

Unconfirmed Member
Nintendo sold more than 260,000 Nintendo 3DS™ portable entertainment systems, an increase of more than 10 percent from the previous month.
Click to expand...

That doesn't look good. How many weeks in August was the price cut?
 
D

DarkChild

Banned
Gadfly said:
I don't know why Sony missed the opportunity to mention they are the only console with YoY growth.
Click to expand...
Because their PR is disaster. They brag when they have nothing to show, and when they do they make themselves look dumb. Sony PR, thats wussup.
 
E

Elios83

Member
Gadfly said:
I don't know why Sony missed the opportunity to mention they are the only console with YoY growth.
Click to expand...

Maybe because they want to be fully coherent......that or because a second place is still a second place, especially after a price cut XD
 
B

bigtroyjon

Member
Gadfly said:
I don't know why Sony missed the opportunity to mention they are the only console with YoY growth.
Click to expand...

Even when they have an unexpectedly great month they still manage to fuck up the pr.

Pretty impressive month, they should have bragged more.
 
E

Exterminieren

Banned
Decent enough numbers for 3DS, but needs compelling software out to really get it to catch light. 260K for a month with little system selling software (Star Fox... doesn't really count) isn't too shabby, but it still needs to improve.
 
B

BurntPork

Banned
As I feared, 3DS saw a nasty weekly drop compared to the first two weeks after the drop, and it's probably going to drop even more next month. (Only <12% compared to the weekly average for all of August, though.) I'm guessing it'll drop to 45k/week in October.

3DS is still doomed here. :/
 
W

watershed

Banned
artwalknoon said:
[360] 370K
[3DS] 250K
[NDS] 145K
[PS3] 200K
[WII] 180K

I'm trying to be conservative in my estimates this month as I was way off for August.
Click to expand...


This month's numbers:
Xbox 360: 438K (PR)
Playstation 3: 364K-374K (Calculations deduced from Sony and MS PR percentages)
Nintendo 3DS: 260K (PR)
Wii: 240K (PR)
Nintendo DS: 145K (PR)

My 3ds prediction was only 10K off and my ds prediction was spot on, everything else not so much. Still I'm getting better at this game!
 
M

MikeE21286

Member
MikeE21286 said:
131614551168-Challenge_accepted.jpg
Click to expand...

NPD
  • [360] 438
  • [3DS] 260
  • [NDS] 145
  • [PS3] 370
  • [WII] 240
1453

Pachter MAPE
  • [360] 360 - 17.81%
  • [3DS] 225 - 13.46%
  • [NDS] 185 - 27.59%
  • [PS3] 260 - 29.73%
  • [WII] 190 - 20.83%
1220 - 16.04%

MikeE21286 MAPE
  • [360] 425 - 2.97%
  • [3DS] 190 - 26.92%
  • [NDS] 180 - 24.14%
  • [PS3] 320 - 13.51%
  • [WII] 240 - 0.00%
1355 - 6.74%


yesjacknicholson.gif


booyah
 
M

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
BurntPork said:
As I feared, 3DS saw a nasty weekly drop compared to the first two weeks after the drop, and it's probably going to drop even more next month. (Only <12% compared to the weekly average for all of August, though.) I'm guessing it'll drop to 45k/week in October.

3DS is still doomed here. :/
Click to expand...
It sold twice as much as the DS did in September 2005. DS just sold 50 million units.

Also, Mario Kart, upcoming lineup, first holiday season.

Did I mention Mario Kart?
 
G

Goldmund

Member
Goldmund said:
[360] 400,000
[3DS] 180,000
[NDS] 170,000
[PS3] 240,000
[WII] 165,000
Click to expand...
[360] -38,000
[3DS] -80,000
[NDS] +25,000
[PS3] -124,000
[WII] -75,000

This month is killing me. I couldn't have made worse guesses. Dear PS3, 3DS and Wii: I'm sorry. You're not as dead as I thought.
 
O

orion434

Member
rayner said:
[360] 450K
[3DS] 300K
[NDS] 175K
[PS3] 275K
[WII] 225K
Click to expand...


[360] +22K
[3DS] -40K
[NDS] +30K
[PS3] -99K
[WII] -15K

Off by 206K... almost 1/2 of that was because of the PS3! One of my best months!
 
M

Madao

Member
uchihasasuke said:
[360] 420k
[3DS] 300k
[NDS] 160k
[PS3] 260k
[WII] 240k
Click to expand...

if it wasn't for the PS3, this would have been my best month ever. i guess i should raise the baseline for it.
 
W

walking fiend

Member
walking fiend said:
thx for the graph donny.
Judging by past number, and assuming GeoW having a H3 effect, I see where those 350-400K 360 are coming

And does anyone have DS numbers now?! :(

3DS should normally sell less than last month, but it should have replaced DS to some extent as well, that is YoY DS+3DS should probably stay the same and 3DS may sell good this month as well, or even increase a bit because of the new red release. Though, really hard to predict how much of DS it'll manage to replace considering the slow propagation of 3DS news in the US.

OK, got all the data I thought I need:

[360] 440,000
[3DS] 255,000
[NDS] 175,000
[PS3] 344,000
[WII] 250,000
Click to expand...

I did good!

NPD said:
[360] 438
[3DS]260
[NDS]145
[PS3]370
[WII] 240
Click to expand...

[360] +2k +0.45%
[3DS]-5k -1.9%
[NDS]+30k +17%
[PS3]-26k -9.6%
[WII] -10k -4.2%

off by 73k
 
D

donny2112

Member
September 2011 NPD Prediction Results

Units

1. walking fiend - 76,000
2. Elios83 - 110,000
3. siyrobbo - 160,000
4. andy_lhc - 164,000
5. MikeE21286 - 171,000
6. uchihasasuke - 186,000
7. skedar897 - 190,000
8. BLaZiN PRopHeT - 191,000
9. PSFan - 195,000
9. rayner - 195,000
11. allan-bh - 206,000
11. duk - 206,000
11. pitseleh - 206,000
11. thestopsign - 206,000
15. rostocker - 213,000
16. jvm - 216,000
17. GAF_Agg - 216,200
18. botticus - 221,000
18. Teetris - 221,000
20. jamesinclair - 223,655
21. BurntPork - 226,000
21. tonitoni - 226,000
21. Zero-Crescent - 226,000
24. ItWasMeantToBe19 - 236,000
25. noobie - 240,000
26. Jonsoncao - 241,000
26. NeoUltima - 241,000
26. Ydahs - 241,000
29. SuperBanjo - 246,000
29. Saiyar - 246,000
31. Brakara - 251,000
31. Hiro_Kunimi_80 - 251,000
31. confuziz - 251,000
34. waicol - 256,000
35. Road - 258,000
36. Jokeropia - 266,000
37. Megadragon15 - 268,000
37. Orgen - 268,000
39. Osuwari - 276,000
40. NateDrake - 277,000
41. Indyana - 283,000
42. SonicX_Zero - 291,000
43. Strike - 295,000
44. Crimson Angelus - 296,000
44. Dedication Through Light - 296,000
44. archnemesis - 296,000
47. Hammer24 - 297,000
48. doicare - 306,000
49. artwalknoon - 311,000
49. donny2112 - 311,000
51. Pachter - 316,000
52. Jesse2040 - 335,000
53. Kung Fu Grip - 340,000
54. Goldmund - 351,000
55. okenny - 355,000
56. Gadfly - 366,000
57. pramath - 376,000
58. Duxxy3 - 435,000
59. Thoraxes - 447,000
60. statham - 481,000
61. Xamdou - 490,000


Points

Code: 
     September 2011              Overall 2011 (Top 7/9 months)
1.   walking fiend     120       Zero-Crescent       639.7
2.   Elios83           113.19    Elios83             616.97
3.   siyrobbo          108.13    Pachter             616.4
4.   PSFan              99.09    NeoUltima           610.8
5.   andy_lhc           98.48    confuziz            608.22
6.   BLaZiN PRopHeT     98.13    Road                603.11
7.   Zero-Crescent      94.16    archnemesis         596.87
8.   BurntPork          94.09    doicare             590.1
9.   pitseleh           93.48    pitseleh            589.97
10.  MikeE21286         93.35    donny2112           584.8
11.  uchihasasuke       92.97    Indyana             582.73
12.  Crimson Angelus    90.83    andy_lhc            577.08
13.  jamesinclair       90.47    Strike              576.01
14.  skedar897          89.43    Jesse2040           573.78
15.  Pachter            88       Teetris             571.99
16.  rayner             87.73    jvm                 571.2
17.  thestopsign        86.85    Hiro_Kunimi_80      569.93
18.  duk                85.93    SuperBanjo          562.08
19.  noobie             85.2     rostocker           560.9
20.  NateDrake          84.54    Saiyar              560.31
21.  tonitoni           84.39    BLaZiN PRopHeT      551.29
22.  ItWasMeantToBe19   84.33    botticus            550.81
23.  rostocker          84.3     Jonsoncao           547.87
24.  allan-bh           84.2     Goldmund            547.71
25.  Ydahs              83.8     Brakara             546.73
26.  waicol             83.78    Ydahs               543.39
27.  Saiyar             83.4     Orgen               541.5
28.  botticus           83.3     rayner              540.61
29.  Osuwari            83.25    skedar897           538.37
30.  NeoUltima          82.97    Jokeropia           537.15
31.  SuperBanjo         82.95    Megadragon15        524.28
32.  Teetris            81.94    Dedication Through L523.64
33.  artwalknoon        81.85    Osuwari             522.96
34.  Hiro_Kunimi_80     81.83    SonicX_Zero         520.45
35.  Road               81.74    perfectchaos007     499.58
36.  Jonsoncao          81.37    Hammer24            498.14
37.  Brakara            81.35    starship            494.56
38.  Jokeropia          81.11    siyrobbo            489.42
39.  jvm                80.26    allan-bh            483.69
40.  Megadragon15       80.23    uchihasasuke        439.61
41.  Dedication Through 80.06    ItWasMeantToBe19    432.93
42.  Orgen              79.99    NateDrake           404.23
43.  confuziz           79.8     kefka2030           354.13
44.  Duxxy3             79.75    Credo               337.44
45.  Indyana            79.69    bakemono            335.59
46.  Hammer24           79.15    noobie              334.35
47.  SonicX_Zero        78.83    jamesinclair        325.21
48.  archnemesis        78.34    Scott32020          320.91
49.  donny2112          77.18    tonitoni            314.97
50.  doicare            76.85    AdventureRacing     299.37

Congratulations, walking fiend! You really stuck it this month! :D

For points, we're now at our final n-2 level, so you can more clearly see where you rank in relation to those ranked around you.
 
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