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September 2011 NPD Predictions - closes October 10

N

Nemo

Will Eat Your Children
[360] 405K
[3DS] 290K
[PS3] 290K
[WII] 230K
[NDS] 210K

Going a bit higher than I wanted to originally, and even then I believe 3DS can actually do 300k easy
 
Y

Ydahs

Member
[360] 375K
[3DS] 270K
[NDS] 180K
[PS3] 260K
[WII] 260K

I wonder how many consecutive times I've entered a prediction. Must be over 20 months now...
 
D

donny2112

Member
Ydahs said:
I wonder how many consecutive times I've entered a prediction. Must be over 20 months now...
Click to expand...

Looks like you started in June 2007 and have missed two months since the first entry (July 2007 and May 2008), so that'd be 40 straight. :)

Edit:
And because I was curious, I'm the only one to have predicted every month since January 2007 (not including professionals). Jokeropia is second having missed January 2007 initially.

Edit2:
For a bit of history, sonycowboy originally did the monthly predictions, and his were much more in-depth and complex (partially due to the fact we got a lot more data in those days). Participating in NPD predictions is one of the reasons I originally got an account over here. :D

Edit3:
Example of a sonycowboy prediction thread. Check out those required predictions. :p
 
N

Nemo

Will Eat Your Children
Lmao, makes this seem like a cakewalk now :)

Big shame there's not that kind of data available anymore
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
[360] 410K
[PS3] 340K
[3DS] 310K
[NDS] 220K
[WII] 210K

I said in my column that the 3DS could do over 300K. I'll stay with that, even though it makes me uncomfortable. I'm not a cheerleader for the system (I don't have one, and surprisingly, my kids don't want one either) but somehow it feels like it has a chance of sliding into the space occupied by the NDS ... the detriment of the traditional DS.

Really conflicted about whether the Wii should be over the NDS. Not sure I can go wrong with weakness of the Wii, though. :(

Should be a strong month for the HD consoles.
 
D

donny2112

Member
jvm said:
surprisingly, my kids don't want one either
Click to expand...

Why would they? Kids don't care about potential or a price drop. They care that their friends have it or is has some game (that their friends were playing) that they have to have. 3DS has neither of those (for the general public), at this point. That may start to change after Christmas when more of their friends may be getting one, though. At this point, replacing the monthly DSi/DSiXL sales (as DSL is apparently discontinued, and 3DS is the same price as a DSiXL and only marginally more than a DSi) + a small hardcore contingent biting on the price/Red color/potential is about the most it can hope for.

It won't be a breakout hit unless it gets a breakout game, which this Fall has the potential to start bringing, but still isn't guaranteed to.

Edit:
I think it's a very safe bet that this will be a much slower burn than DS was after DSLite. 3DS will probably outsell DS pre-DSLite launch aligned, but post-DSLite, 3DS should lag behind considerably. 3DS should be around for a while, though, so it can still rack up big numbers long-term, just probably not DS big.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
donny2112 said:
Why would they?
Click to expand...
More and more, my older son is in tune with what's new. I expected him to latch onto it, but he didn't.

He's still paying Animal Crossing on my original black DSL.

My younger son plays GBC Frogger on the GBC.
 
B

BurntPork

Banned
donny2112 said:
Why would they? Kids don't care about potential or a price drop. They care that their friends have it or is has some game (that their friends were playing) that they have to have. 3DS has neither of those (for the general public), at this point. That may start to change after Christmas when more of their friends may be getting one, though. At this point, replacing the monthly DSi/DSiXL sales (as DSL is apparently discontinued, and 3DS is the same price as a DSiXL and only marginally more than a DSi) + a small hardcore contingent biting on the price/Red color/potential is about the most it can hope for.

It won't be a breakout hit unless it gets a breakout game, which this Fall has the potential to start bringing, but still isn't guaranteed to.

Edit:
I think it's a very safe bet that this will be a much slower burn than DS was after DSLite. 3DS will probably outsell DS pre-DSLite launch aligned, but post-DSLite, 3DS should lag behind considerably. 3DS should be around for a while, though, so it can still rack up big numbers long-term, just probably not DS big.
Click to expand...
I don't know about "considerably." The 3DS will probably get a revision and a marketing blitz around June or September and one of the larger Pokemon spin-offs (I'm thinking Mystery Dungeon) in the Fall, or perhaps even a main Pokemon game if that's what TPCJ announces in December. Summer and Fall will also be when the big Japanese games from this holiday get localized. To keep with DS numbers, it's true that Nintendo needs a few surprise break-out hits that only they can get right, and that won't be easy, but the 3DS still has high potential to be Nintendo's second best selling handheld yet. At the very least, I'm confident that it'll pass GBA.

jamesinclair said:
[360] 390,000
[PS3] 333,333
[3DS] 313,333
[WII] 234,567
[NDS] 222,222


[PSP] 111,111
Click to expand...
I like your numbers
 
D

donny2112

Member
jvm said:
More and more, my older son is in tune with what's new. I expected him to latch onto it, but he didn't.
Click to expand...

3DS isn't particularly popular in the main stream, right now. It's not despised, or anything. It just doesn't seem to have much notice taken of it. I still think that 3-D movies at a good price (e.g. < $20) could be the killer app for the system. I know 3-D movies aren't the bee's knees like they were with Avatar, but I think that could have a lot to do with the expensive ticket price, glasses, and inability to "take it home" with you without buying a hugely expensive new setup. I think people still like 3-D movies, but not the overhead that comes with them. 3DS is in a great position there, but it needs to actually do something with that position, as far as movies go.

BurntPork said:
I don't know about "considerably."
Click to expand...

DS took off to huge numbers with the DSLite release. Before DS, no system had sold > 3m in December before, for example. 3DS could sell pretty great and still not reach monthly DS levels over the long-term. That's what I was trying to say.

BurntPork said:
At the very least, I'm confident that it'll pass GBA.
Click to expand...

LTD? Probably. Launch-aligned before DS's release? Probably not. GBA was a beast right out of the gate, and didn't let up until it was put out to pasture. :p
 
O

okenny

Banned
Gadfly said:
[360] 360k
[3DS] 400k
[PS3] 340k
[WII] 300k
[NDS] 200k
Click to expand...

When I saw this, I swear I heard Journey playing in the background
:lol


[360] 404k
[3DS] 386k
[PS3] 288k
[WII] 175k
[NDS] 190k
 
C

Crimson Angelus

Banned
[360] 400,000
[PS3] 240,000
[Wii] 180,000
[NDS] 140,000
[3DS] 200,000

In order of predicted console:

-5 weeks in the month and a 3 million seller in GoW3 put the 360 over 400k systems sold
-No huge games released, GoW:O/Res3 will underperform against GoW3
-No new releases and the same promos running...casual continue move to PS360
-Huge drop in sales due to lack of new release beside new Kirby, DSL being discontinued
-Drop in sales reflect slowly stagnating price drop effect and SF64 being the only major new release
 
S

Seda

Member
Analyst: September Retail Sales Up 4% Compared To Last Year

A new report from marketing firm Wedbush Securities has forecast U.S. retail video game software sales for September 2011, noting an increase compared to figures for the same period last year.

The company explained that a barrage of strong releases, plus a late August release for Madden NFL 12, has seen overall September sales of $635 million, up 4 percent compared to last September's $612 million.

It named the likes of FIFA Soccer 12, Gears of Wars 3 and Resistance 3 as titles that helped push sales through in September. The company noted that retails sales have seen a decline in every month this year apart from April, and now September.

Wedbush said that October should also see gains compared to last year, thanks to such releases as Battlefield 3 and Batman: Arkham City.

In terms of hardware sales, Wedbush Securities expects 190,000 Wii units were sold, down 25 percent year-over-year, while 360,000 Xbox 360 units were sold (down 26 percent) and 260,000 PlayStation 3 units (down 17 percent). The company noted that this last decrease was despite the PS3 price cut earlier this year.

The Nintendo DS sold through 185,000 units (down 54 percent year-on-year), and the Nintendo 3DS managed 225,000 units.
Click to expand...

I think these numbers are really more forecasts than anything else, but they're probably close to accurate.

EDIT: see below
 
M

MikeE21286

Member
Seda said:
Pachter
[360] 360k
[3DS] 225k
[NDS] 185k
[PS3] 260k
[WII] 190k
Click to expand...

MikeE21286 said:
[360] 425k
[3DS] 190k
[NDS] 180k
[PS3] 320k
[WII] 240k
Click to expand...

challenge_accepted_Amazing_Feats_Fails_WIns_Lolz_and_A_Contest-s325x265-158648-535.png
 
CaptainABAB

CaptainABAB

Member
In this news.com article on the Wedbush estimates, there are some additional details not mentioned in the Gamasutra srticle...

In addition to hardware unit sales, Pachter also looked at software sales on each console during the month. He estimated that Xbox 360 software sales hit $306 million last month, easily outstripping the PlayStation 3's $165 million in sales. Nintendo Wii sales were a paltry $85 million during the month, the analyst estimated.

On the portable side, Pachter estimated that September sales hit $15 million on the 3DS and $56 million for the DS.
Click to expand...

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-2...y-double-that-of-wiis-analyst-says/?tag=mncol
 
B

BurntPork

Banned
Mpl90 said:
Yes, these are forecasts.
And...err, I don't know if they can be so reliable.
Last month, Wedbrush forecasted 135k for 3DS and 230k for DS... and then, it happened the exact contrary :lol :lol :lol :lol
Click to expand...
And I thought lolchartz's numbers (they said 305k for 3DS, and September they say more than 450k) were hilariously off...
 
N

NavNucST3

Member
I didn't see anything listed in Michael's estimates as to why he believes there were weekly sell-through declines for the 360 and PS3.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
BurntPork said:
And I thought lolchartz's numbers (they said 305k for 3DS, and September they say more than 450k) were hilariously off...
Click to expand...

I remember their estimate for August was 267k.
Let me check.

Ok, so they said 268k for August, and 3DS did 235k
Now, they forecast almost 400k.
...I don't think they'll be lucky another time :lol
 
B

BurntPork

Banned
NavNucST3 said:
I didn't see anything listed in Michael's estimates as to why he believes there were weekly sell-through declines for the 360 and PS3.
Click to expand...
It seems that he forgot that five weeks are counted in September.
 
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