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Sales-Age September 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 10th

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
ITT, predict for the NPD September 2017 retail period (August 27-September 30, 2017) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, October 10th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: August 27-September 30, 2017 (5 weeks, August was 4 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, October 12th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 1 week later on October 19th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in September:
Seemingly better Switch supply
White PS4 Pro Destiny 2 bundle - $449 (Sept. 6) - 25 days

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

August's results (not public)
#1 Predictor for the month
[NSW] 230k
[PS4] 190k
[XB1] 120k
And some estimated values that are usually pretty good from Liabe Brave based on the predictions, gen over gen changes, etc.
For August, my calculations show Switch at 215-216k (with lower being favored), PS4 at 190-194k (with the very bottom of the range more likely), and Xbox One at 115-116k (with higher being slightly favored). If I had to select specific numbers, it would be these:

SWI: 215k
PS4: 190k
XB1: 116k


Of course, these aren't based on any access to the actual NPD results, so they should in no way be taken as definitive. The totals do closely match the gen-over-gen percentages given by Mr. Piscatella above--to within a few hundredths of a percent--but that doesn't mean the component values are correct. (Especially since many months in both comparative periods are themselves based on rounded estimates. The apparent precision could be spurious.)

August 2016 NPD thread
September 2016 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
This will be Destiny month, right? So I expect a big uptick on the PS4.
 

Madness

Banned
Jan 1, 2013
22,120
0
0
[PS4] 290K
[NSW] 260K
[XB1] 140K

Only because of Destiny 2 for PS4 and because a lot of Xbox fans waiting for Xbox One X before purchasing anything.
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,511
0
430
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of August and September. This is where comparing weekly averages is better than simple month to month because September is a 5 week month while August is only 4. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for September to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.

Code:
2011

Xbox 360 August: 308K / 4 = 77,000
Xbox 360 September: 438K / 5 = 87,600

Weekly average +14%

PS3 August: 218K / 4 = 54,500
PS3 September: 374K / 5 = 74,800

Weekly average +37%

[b]Notable Events in September[/b]

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Gears of War 3 320GB Slim model $399 [2 weeks]

Gears of War 3 [2 weeks] [>2m]
Madden NFL 12 [5 weeks]
Dead Island  [4 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
Madden NFL 12 [5 weeks]
Resistance 3 [4 weeks] [180k]
Dead Island  [4 weeks]

Code:
2012

Xbox 360 August: 193K / 4 = 48,250
Xbox 360 September: 270K / 5 = 54,000

Weekly average +12%

PS3 August: 143K / 4 = 35,750
PS3 September: 201K / 5 = 40,200

Weekly average +12%

[b]Notable Events in September[/b]

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Madden NFL 13 [5 weeks]
Borderlands 2 [2 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
PS3 Super Slim $269 [1 week]

Madden NFL 13 [5 weeks]
Borderlands 2 [2 weeks]

Code:
2013

Xbox 360 August: 96K / 4 = 24,000
Xbox 360 September: 179K / 5 = 35,800

Weekly average +49%

PS3 August: 71K / 4 = 17,750
PS3 September: 216K / 5 = 43,200

Weekly average +143%

[b]Notable Events in September[/b]

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Grand Theft Auto V [3 weeks] [>4.06m]
Diablo III [5 weeks] [335,500]

[u]PS3[/u]
Grand Theft Auto V [3 weeks] [>2.81m]
Grand Theft Auto V 500GB bundle $269 [3 weeks] [~130k]
Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 Remix [4 weeks] [273,000]
Diablo III [5 weeks] [205,000]

Code:
2014

Xbox 360 August: 50K / 4 = 12,500
Xbox 360 September: 74K / 5 = 14,800

Weekly average up 18%

Xbox One August: 159K / 4 = 39,750
Xbox One September: 284K / 5 = 56,800

Weekly average +43%

PS3 August: 27K / 4 = 6,750
PS3 September: 46K / 5 = 9,200

Weekly average +36%

PS4 August: 190K / 4 = 47,500
PS4 September: 538K / 5 = 107,600

Weekly average +127%

[b]Notable Events in September[/b]

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Call of Duty: Ghosts + Call of Duty: Black Ops II 500GB bundle $249 [3 weeks]

Destiny [4 weeks] [<621k]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Destiny [4 weeks] [<945k]
1 free game with every Xbox One purchase [Destiny week]

Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor[1 week] [<144k]

[u]PS3[/u]
Destiny 500GB Bundle $269? [4 weeks]

Destiny [4 weeks] [<243k]

[u]PS4[/u]
Destiny White 500GB model $449 [4 weeks] [300k]

Destiny [4 weeks] [<891k]
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor [1 week] [<207k]

Code:
2015

Xbox One August: 200K / 4 = 50,000
Xbox One September: 292K / 5 = 58,400

Weekly average +17%

PS4 August: 208K / 4 = 52,000
PS4 September: 354K / 5 = 70,800

Weekly average +36%

[b]Notable Events in September[/b]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain [5 weeks] [<184k]
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $100 towards Xbox One [9/15-9/20]
Forza 6 Limited 1TB bundle $399 [3 weeks]
FIFA 16 bundle 1TB $399 [3 weeks]
NBA 2K16 [1 week] [>429k]
Destiny: The Taken King [3 weeks] [>227k]
FIFA 16 [2 weeks] [<214k]
Best Buy - Trade in Last Gen console and get $150 towards Xbox One [9/27-10/3]

[u]PS4[/u]
NBA 2K16 [1 week] [>572k]
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain [5 weeks] [<552k]
Destiny: The Taken King [3 weeks] [>216k]
Destiny: The Taken King White Bundle $399 [3 weeks] [<173k]
Fifa 16 [2 weeks] [<292k]

Code:
2016

Xbox One August: 275K / 4 = 68,750
Xbox One September: 333K / 5 = 66,600

Weekly average -3%

PS4 August: 160K / 4 = 40,000
PS4 September: 285K / 5 = 57,000

Weekly average +43%

[b]Notable Events in September[/b]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Xbox One S Minecraft 500GB bundle $299 [2 weeks]
Free game with any Xbox One S bundle purchased [Amazon/Best Buy/Gamestop/Target] [9/25 - 10/1]

NBA 2K17 [2 weeks]
Fifa 17 [1 week]
Forza Horizon 3 [1 week]

[u]PS4[/u]
PS4 $299 [4 weeks]
PS4 Slim 500GB $299 [3 weeks]

NBA 2K17 [2 weeks]
Fifa 17 [1 week]

Code:
2017 August Weekly Averages

[URL="http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=250043346#post250043346"]Numbers sourced here[/URL]

Switch: 215K / 4 weeks = 53,750
PS4: 190K / 4 weeks = 47,500
Xbox One: 116K / 4 weeks = 29,000

[b]Notable Events in September[/b]

[u]Switch[/u]
Supply constrained, but potentially better stock as we get close to the holidays
Splatoon 2 Bundle $379 [Walmart] September 8th [4 weeks]

Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle [5 weeks]
Pokken Tournament DX [2 weeks]
FIFA 18 [1 week]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Destiny 2 [4 weeks]
NBA 2K18 [3 weeks]
FIFA 18 [1 week]

[u]PS4[/u]
PS4 Pro Destiny 2 1TB Limited Bundle $449 [4 weeks]

Destiny 2 [4 weeks]
NBA 2K18 [3 weeks]
FIFA 18 [1 week]

Some notes:

September is ALWAYS better than August as we are heading into the fall season and more AAA games are released, aside from the one drop from Xbox One in 2016, as August saw the release of the One S model.

Xbox

The Xbox 360 average weekly rise was +22%, with the biggest rise being +44% (2013) and lowest being +12% (2012). 2013 saw the release of GTA V.

The Xbox One has had decent deals in September. 2014 had a free game week alongside Destiny’s launch and 2015 had two trade in deals along with the launch of NBA (usually an October launch) and the addition of Forza and FIFA bundles. 2016 slightly fell from August thanks to the launch of the One S at both the beginning and end of the month, and even then the drop was very slight. Basically a steady pace. 2017 has Destiny 2 as the massive launch but besides that there isn’t much else. SImilar to Xbox 360, Xbox One average rise is +19% thanks to the drop in 2016.

PlayStation
The PS3 average weekly rise was +55% thanks to the GTAV bundle in 2013 (+135%). Without that year, it averaged closer to +29% thanks to hardware bundle launches that happened either in the month or in late August.

PS4 has done incredibly well in September. Massive hardware events such as the Destiny bundles in 2014/2015 and the launch of the PS4 Slim with a price cut to $299 in 2016. 2017 is kind of lacking compared to previous years as it has Destiny 2, but with a $449 bundle. Like PS3, PS4 has a massive average rise of +68%. August/September is when Sony generally kick off the holiday preparations.

Nintendo

Not much else to say besides Switch is hard to predict. Will Nintendo send more stock for September for Mario + Rabbids and FIFA, or is that turning into those Mario Odyssey bundles for the holidays?

Also, SNES Classic is out this month. Wonder if that outsells Switch, PS4, and XB1 combined.

Recap

September is always an improvement. Not much else besides that if there isn’t much going on, the increase might be small, but don’t be surprised by massive improvements either.

The biggest September ever recorded during the 7th gen was the Wii with 687,000 back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 528,000 back in 2007.

The biggest September ever recorded during the 8th gen was the PS4 with 538,000 in 2014. Second biggest? PS4 again with 354,000 back in 2015.
 

Si2k78

Member
Mar 22, 2017
178
0
0
[PS4] 300K
[NSW] 220K
[XB1] 135K

I seriously think Nintendo is holding back some stock for October to support the Mario Odyssey launch, so I would expect the PS4 to outsell the Switch in September because of Destiny, and I would expect the Switch to outsell the PS4 massively in October.
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
Just keeping it visible for those wanting to predict for September. Still ~8 days left to predict, though.
 

KawabataSan

Member
Jul 27, 2011
250
0
630
Just keeping it visible for those wanting to predict for September. Still ~8 days left to predict, though.

I think many people don't care any more now that we don't get any hardware or software numbers at all.

What's the point in predicting when you don't know the actual numbers.

Will you still do predictions next year? I remember you said you'd stop if public leaks stopped.
 

Bitch Pudding

Member
Oct 3, 2014
8,210
336
570
Germany
What's the point in predicting when you don't know the actual numbers.

We still get to know who's guess was best, incl. follow-ups, and with that result we can narrow down actual sales results. It's not perfect, but it's more than good enough to get an idea how each console performs sales-wise these days.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Oct 13, 2014
7,121
0
0
Arizona
[PS4] 265K
[NSW] 310K
[XB1] 120k

I don't think Destiny 2 had much of an effect tbh, specially with the LE being a $449 Pro edition.

Switch otoh has had a better supply I think.
 
Sep 4, 2015
13,402
2
0
Are you sure that's the right link? I'm getting a Phil Spencer tweet.
Fixed!

In a perfect world, the Fall / Holiday PS4 bundle would include both Horizon and Crash Bandicoot.
It really should. Either give them their own bundle or include them in others. If there is one thing I'll give MS, it is that they have a variety of bundles. Sony doesn't do as well in that regard in US.
 

Abdiel

Member
Nov 2, 2013
1,534
0
0
Hey everyone - Not a lot of time tonight, but I wanted to at least come by and post a quick impression.

The Destiny bundle isn't the same kind of extremely high sell rate of the standard white models, due to it being a Pro model, with a higher price point, however, it still has sold well.

From what I can see, I would still give the edge to the PS4 over the Switch this month though.

No significant improvement on the XB1.
 

noshten

Member
Oct 20, 2014
4,086
418
505
Sofia
[PS4] 285K
[NSW] 325K
[XB1] 160K


- PS4 pretty much maintaining last year's performance but will be down next month(Pro Release)
- Switch will be high in September due to Mario+Rabbids week counting towards this month and big month in Walmart due to Splatoon 2 Bundle, there was also anecdotal reports that Switch was more readily available across all retailers during September.
- XB1 sales to be down around 50% YOY, it had a huge September last year so numbers won't look good this time around.
 

OrbitalBeard

Member
Jun 2, 2013
24,901
6
0
I'll be pretty surprised if Switch outsells PS4 this month, though it'll still have very strong numbers.
 

Shin-Ra

Junior Member
Oct 10, 2013
12,089
1
0
78M is the cumulative sales (shipment) target set by Sony for the end of this fiscal year.
 

sphinx

the piano man
Nov 21, 2006
15,737
0
1,360
Germany
I think many people don't care any more now that we don't get any hardware or software numbers at all.

What's the point in predicting when you don't know the actual numbers.

Will you still do predictions next year? I remember you said you'd stop if public leaks stopped.

all numbers eventually get leaked, it's not an "if" but a "when",

If I remember correctly, all numbers for all pieces of hardware for the first 5 or 6 months 2017 were leaked in a single move.

my guess is that donny waits til such leaks happen then give results.

otherwise yeah I am not sure predicting specific numbers makes any sense