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Sales-Age September 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 10th

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
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0
Unless a digital split is going to be provided, I'm not sure what the point of waiting is?

If someone can tell me that a digital ratio will be provided, I'll be glad to hold off on making the thread. But since that probably won't happen, and we probably aren't getting numbers, I don't think avoiding hot takes is a good enough reason to not make the thread.

By all means make it, it is important news. I just think the delay between NPD sharing packaged and digital numbers is a bad call for publishers. The narrative will always form around the first numbers we get.

D2 is absolutely down from the original but not to the extent it appears. No one is going to care about that though and we are going to get extensive poor sales discussion instead which is just frustrating
 

Primethius

Banned
Jan 20, 2008
17,874
0
0
U.S.
twitter.com
By all means make it, it is important news. I just think the delay between NPD sharing packaged and digital numbers is a bad call for publishers. The narrative will always form around the first numbers we get.

D2 is absolutely down from the original but not to the extent it appears. No one is going to care about that though and we are going to get extensive poor sales discussion instead which is just frustrating

I have no idea why NPD/publishers do that. And I would totally hold off on making the thread if there was some sort of guarantee that we'd get meaningful data next week. But seeing the state of NPD threads recently? I'll just make the thread because I just don't know if we'll get actual data.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Jun 12, 2012
14,205
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0
How about neither? People who did not like Destiny 1 were coming back for this one but people who liked Destiny 1 were already going to buy it.

well those were the two things that stuck out as being interesting to revisit in a week, hence the post I quoted.

Or if Xbox won the month :D
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
Will Walmart Splatoon 2 bundles count towards Splatoon 2's software total for September?

No. They'd be tracked as a separate hardware SKU (that we won't see separated), but won't count toward the software number. Nintendo's shipments would include it, though.
 

Kill3r7

Member
Jun 19, 2014
8,896
1
320
I dunno...stock?

Lol at the responses tho. This thread is like 2 pages long and for some reason cosmic said it would be interesting to read next week. So I guessed that reason.

Well possible shocking news, rankings based on how much traffic it would drive to the thread.

1. D2 digital attach rate is over 50%.
2. NBA2K was the number 1 game in September.
3. Xbox was the best selling console in September.
4. Switch beats PS4 in D2 month by over 100K.
 
Sep 4, 2015
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Increased stock....though I also believe demand is down a bit at the moment, so that probably wasn't enough.

I don't think Switch took #1 in September, but it probably had a very good month.
Agreed.

I dunno...stock?

Lol at the responses tho. This thread is like 2 pages long and for some reason cosmic said it would be interesting to read next week. So I guessed that reason.
I figured it was relating to Destiny 2 since the end of the preceding page was about physical/digital stuff. Fair enough though. I was just wondering what would make it possible.

Well possible shocking news, rankings based on how much traffic it would drive to the thread.

1. D2 digital attach rate is over 50%.
2. NBA2K was the number 1 game in September.
3. Xbox was the best selling console in September.
4. Switch beats PS4 in D2 month by over 100K.
Number 2 happened, apparently. Or are you including digital in that statement?
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Jun 12, 2012
14,205
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0
Well possible shocking news, rankings based on how much traffic it would drive to the thread.

1. D2 digital attach rate is over 50%.
2. NBA2K was the number 1 game in September.
3. Xbox was the best selling console in September.
4. Switch beats PS4 in D2 month by over 100K.

well we know number 2 is real for retail.

yeah, I mentioned the other three. 100k seems too much though imo.
 

Kill3r7

Member
Jun 19, 2014
8,896
1
320
Agreed.

I figured it was relating to Destiny 2 since the end of the preceding page was about physical/digital stuff. Fair enough though. I was just wondering what would make it possible.

Number 2 happened, apparently. Or are you including digital in that statement?

well we know number 2 is real for retail.

yeah, I mentioned the other three. 100k seems too much though imo.

I thought NPD no longer tracks units but total sales based on revenue. That is what I was referring to. Sorry if I missed the news as I was out of town earlier this week.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Jun 12, 2012
14,205
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0
I thought NPD no longer tracks units but total sales based on revenue. That is what I was referring to. Sorry if I missed the news as I was out of town earlier this week.

oh wait, 3rd party games do give out digital now right
 
Jun 9, 2004
58,459
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haiti.kreyol.com
while we are waiting for results, does anyone know how NPD counts Amazon's digital sales? If they do at all.

This is a new thing for me I put $$60 on my eShop but thinking I would get a deal from PRIME. I decide to go to Amazon and purchase a digital version of Super Mario Odyssey
 

OrbitalBeard

Member
Jun 2, 2013
24,901
6
0
while we are waiting for results, does anyone know how NPD counts Amazon's digital sales? If they do at all.

This is a new thing for me I put $$60 on my eShop but thinking I would get a deal from PRIME. I decide to go to Amazon and purchase a digital version of Super Mario Odyssey

Individual publishers decide whether to supply NPD with digital software data or not. I believe this also applies to digital sales made through retailers, but I could be wrong about that. Someone please correct me if I am.
 
Jun 9, 2004
58,459
5,632
1,845
usa
haiti.kreyol.com
Individual publishers decide whether to supply NPD with digital software data or not. I believe this also applies to digital sales made through retailers, but I could be wrong about that. Someone please correct me if I am.

ok I was curious because it seems strange you can buy digital from a retailer so wondered if it counted as a retail sale in charts

guess not
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
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0
I thought NPD no longer tracks units but total sales based on revenue.

We track Units, Revenues and Average Selling Prices. We only publicly talk about Revenues.

Individual publishers decide whether to supply NPD with digital software data or not. I believe this also applies to digital sales made through retailers, but I could be wrong about that. Someone please correct me if I am.

Digital sales are tracked for sales occurring on the PlayStation Store, Xbox Live and STEAM for publishers participating in the Digital Leader Panel. We also track digital sales done via POSA card purchasing (gamecards) across eShop, PlayStation Store, Xbox Live, STEAM and many others.

As for "code to content" purchases, say a digital code from Amazon... these are not currently included in reporting.

Hope that clears things up a bit. It is confusing for sure.
 

Kill3r7

Member
Jun 19, 2014
8,896
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We track Units, Revenues and Average Selling Prices. We only publicly talk about Revenues.



Digital sales are tracked for sales occurring on the PlayStation Store, Xbox Live and STEAM for publishers participating in the Digital Leader Panel. We also track digital sales done via POSA card purchasing (gamecards) across eShop, PlayStation Store, Xbox Live, STEAM and many others.

As for "code to content" purchases, say a digital code from Amazon... these are not currently included in reporting.

Hope that clears things up a bit. It is confusing for sure.

Thx for clarifying. So tune in next Thursday, is what you are saying. At least it will give me something to do on my commute home.
 

OrbitalBeard

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Jun 2, 2013
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0
Digital sales are tracked for sales occurring on the PlayStation Store, Xbox Live and STEAM for publishers participating in the Digital Leader Panel. We also track digital sales done via POSA card purchasing (gamecards) across eShop, PlayStation Store, Xbox Live, STEAM and many others.

As for "code to content" purchases, say a digital code from Amazon... these are not currently included in reporting.

Hope that clears things up a bit. It is confusing for sure.

Thanks Mat!
 

noshten

Member
Oct 20, 2014
4,086
418
505
Sofia
Well possible shocking news, rankings based on how much traffic it would drive to the thread.

1. D2 digital attach rate is over 50%.
2. NBA2K was the number 1 game in September.
3. Xbox was the best selling console in September.
4. Switch beats PS4 in D2 month by over 100K.

1. Mildly Shocking
I don't really think that it would be so high - Activision or Bungie would have boasted about it by now. I'd guess it's probably closer to 40% which would still be pretty impressive.

2. Least Shocking
Physical is confirmed in the article everyone is discussing.
Digital + physical extremely unlikely considering that annual sports franchises aren't known for huge digital percentages. Destiny should outsell it.

3.
GAFBEDOWN Shocking
Not a single indication of Xbox selling even half what it did last September.

4. Mildly Shocking
There is no doubt Nintendo provided more supply in September compared to July/August, question is how much more.
Last year as a whole September was okish for PS4 so for it to be outsold by Switch by 100K one of the following needs to happen:

- PS4 down YoY

PS4 Slim launched last September, how much of an effect it had on hardware that month is uncertain. But there was also the Pro announcement which could have possibly offset growth by the Slim because people invested into the PlayStation ecosystem might have decided instead of trading in for a slim to trade in for a Pro. Overall HW was down last year.
This year we have the Destiny 2 launch as well as an ongoing trend of PS4 outperforming 2016. So remaining flat or slightly over last year's result is what I expect.

- Switch selling over 400K

If we look at the level of supply in Japan this Quarter we can sort of guess what is likely for NA in terms of Switch supply:

Q3 {2017.07.03 - 2017.10.01} - 744.359 / 1.784.184 (13 weeks)

These were the shipments from Nintendo

Japan / America / Other / Total / LTD

Q1 600k / 1.200k / 940k / 2.740k / 2.740k
Q2 520k / 750k / 690k / 1.970k / 4.700k

I'd guess they shipped between 800-900K to NA because of their quarterly report(Japan got prioritized this quarter due to Splatoon 2). That's why there was a lot more availability in September compared to August/July since both those months combined are <500K and they must have shipped >300K in September. September NPD counts the last week of August when Mario + Rabbids launched, there was wildly available Splatoon 2 bundle in Walmart for much of the month and many anecdotal reports about Switch being a lot easier to find. Since shipped =/= sold, even if 400K Switches were available to retailers there won't be 1:1 ratio with the number of Switches sold in September. So for Switch to outsell PS4 by such a degree we'd need the US Shipment for this quarter to be closer/over 1 million with half of those shipped in the September. I don't think there is an indication that Switch was that well supplied for September.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Mar 12, 2012
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Yep. Thanks! I'm going to try to bring a bit more energy to this one. You can take the guy out of the corporate, but it's tough to take the corporate out of the guy.

Looking forward to checking it out, though last months wasn’t nearly as bad as you thought...or maybe I’ve been around the office too long, lol.
 

Humdinger

Member
Apr 21, 2010
4,275
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Yep. Thanks! I'm going to try to bring a bit more energy to this one. You can take the guy out of the corporate, but it's tough to take the corporate out of the guy.

Just get angry and yell a lot. You'll be a YouTube celebrity in no time. Go on rants about statistics.
 

Mattenth

Member
Feb 10, 2014
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opencritic.com
Please elaborate.

NPD's premium subscribers get the report in advance of the snippets and summaries being made available to the press. GameStop (GME) took a little bit of a beating last week, taking a 4% drop with no discernable news event.

The UK retail data is also just brutal. FIFA down 22%. Shadow of War down 18%. Evil Within and Destiny 2 down 50%+.

I think either digital distribution is really taking off among mainstream gamers OR mainstream gamers are gravitating more towards games like DotA 2, Overwatch, LoL, PUBG, etc.
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
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0
Just to avoid confusion later, the rankings shared in this mornings PR from Nintendo are packaged unit sales rankings at the SKU level.

The rankings we will be releasing later today will be packaged + digital revenue sales rankings at the title rollup level.
 

LordRaptor

Member
Aug 20, 2015
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520
I think either digital distribution is really taking off among mainstream gamers OR mainstream gamers are gravitating more towards games like DotA 2, Overwatch, LoL, PUBG, etc.

I suspect its a combination of both - "mainstream" titles have always been high replayability long tail; FIFA / Madden / CoD etc
 

Stanng243

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Oct 11, 2013
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Just to avoid confusion later, the rankings shared in this mornings PR from Nintendo are packaged unit sales rankings at the SKU level.

The rankings we will be releasing later today will be packaged + digital revenue sales rankings at the title rollup level.

Mat, did you glance at the link I posted above you? The estimate numbers seem insane to me in that linked article, I am curious about your take on it.
 

theprodigy

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Aug 25, 2013
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Just to avoid confusion later, the rankings shared in this mornings PR from Nintendo are packaged unit sales rankings at the SKU level.

The rankings we will be releasing later today will be packaged + digital revenue sales rankings at the title rollup level.

So individual SKU (retail only) list looks like:

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ??? (first 4 are probably PS4/XB1 NBA/Destiny in some order)
5. ???
6. ???
7. Mario+Rabbids
8. Metroid
9. ???
10. Zelda
11. MK8
 

Kill3r7

Member
Jun 19, 2014
8,896
1
320
So individual SKU (retail only) list looks like:

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ??? (first 4 are probably PS4/XB1 NBA/Destiny in some order)
5. ???
6. ???
7. Mario+Rabbids
8. Metroid
9. ???
10. Zelda
11. MK8


Presumably Madden and FIFA would be the rest of those SKUs and then GTA5.
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
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Mat, did you glance at the link I posted above you? The estimate numbers seem insane to me in that linked article, I am curious about your take on it.

I try not to comment on releases from other firms.

My forecast currently has Q4 as competitive between PS4 and Xone in the US, assuming only 600k Xbox One X's are sent to retail, which could be a massive miss to actuals.

If many more get shipped, then I could see a scenario where Xone outsells PS4 in holiday.

But there are far too many unknowns to think that any projection is particularly solid.
 

Bitch Pudding

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Oct 3, 2014
8,210
336
570
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Just to avoid confusion later, the rankings shared in this mornings PR from Nintendo are packaged unit sales rankings at the SKU level.

The rankings we will be releasing later today will be packaged + digital revenue sales rankings at the title rollup level.

Thanks, looking forward to your report!
 

Unknown?

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Jan 5, 2016
4,345
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535
I try not to comment on releases from other firms.

My forecast currently has Q4 as competitive between PS4 and Xone in the US, assuming only 600k Xbox One X's are sent to retail, which could be a massive miss to actuals.

If many more get shipped, then I could see a scenario where Xone outsells PS4 in holiday.

But there are far too many unknowns to think that any projection is particularly solid.
Can’t see that unless Sony doesn’t do its usual $50 drop with another $50 promotional. A $199 PS4 will fly off the shelves especially if it’s a Star Wars bundle.

If Nintendo can ship a lot I see Xbox being last.
 

jayu26

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Feb 24, 2013
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NINTENDO...


I am going to probably end up outside of top ten this year because of Switch. Hopefully it doesn't fluctuate as insanely next year.
 

In Service

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Jan 29, 2014
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I try not to comment on releases from other firms.

My forecast currently has Q4 as competitive between PS4 and Xone in the US, assuming only 600k Xbox One X's are sent to retail, which could be a massive miss to actuals.

If many more get shipped, then I could see a scenario where Xone outsells PS4 in holiday.

But there are far too many unknowns to think that any projection is particularly solid.

That makes sense. Which is rare when reading these threads!