ITT, predict for the NPD September 2017 retail period (August 27-September 30, 2017) for U.S. hardware sales.
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, October 10th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.
NPD Coverage: August 27-September 30, 2017 (5 weeks, August was 4 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, October 12th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 1 week later on October 19th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)
Format:
[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]
Good/Bad Formatting
Potential hardware impacting events in September:
Seemingly better Switch supply
White PS4 Pro Destiny 2 bundle - $449 (Sept. 6) - 25 days
Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)
[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]
August's results (not public)
August 2016 NPD thread
September 2016 NPD thread
NPD Prediction Thread Archive
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.
The ranking and results are based in real numbers.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, October 10th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.
NPD Coverage: August 27-September 30, 2017 (5 weeks, August was 4 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, October 12th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 1 week later on October 19th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)
Format:
[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]
Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good Bad
[XB1] 200K [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000 [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000 [XB1] - 200000
Potential hardware impacting events in September:
Seemingly better Switch supply
White PS4 Pro Destiny 2 bundle - $449 (Sept. 6) - 25 days
Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)
[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]
August's results (not public)
And some estimated values that are usually pretty good from Liabe Brave based on the predictions, gen over gen changes, etc.#1 Predictor for the month
[NSW] 230k
[PS4] 190k
[XB1] 120k
For August, my calculations show Switch at 215-216k (with lower being favored), PS4 at 190-194k (with the very bottom of the range more likely), and Xbox One at 115-116k (with higher being slightly favored). If I had to select specific numbers, it would be these:
SWI: 215k
PS4: 190k
XB1: 116k
Of course, these aren't based on any access to the actual NPD results, so they should in no way be taken as definitive. The totals do closely match the gen-over-gen percentages given by Mr. Piscatella above--to within a few hundredths of a percent--but that doesn't mean the component values are correct. (Especially since many months in both comparative periods are themselves based on rounded estimates. The apparent precision could be spurious.)
August 2016 NPD thread
September 2016 NPD thread
NPD Prediction Thread Archive