• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
  • Hey Guest. Check out the NeoGAF 2.2 Update Thread for details on our new Giphy integration and other new features.
  • The Politics forum has been nuked. Please do not bring political discussion to the rest of the site, or you will be removed. Thanks.

Sales-Age August 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, September 5th

Nightwing123

Member
Jun 18, 2017
597
0
0
[NSW] 225k
[PS4] 220k
[XB1] 110k

This is my first doing this, I hope I do decent. Either way it should be fun.
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
0
0
The Pachter thread is a train wreck, but I have 600k US in 2017 for Xbox One X, as does Welfare from the post. 1 million in 2017 WW would be a strong result for a $500 iterative console targeted very specifically at the early adopter enthusiast crowd. Strange reactions in that thread. Shrug.
 

Sangetsu-II

Member
Dec 5, 2014
4,803
1
340
US
The Pachter thread is a train wreck, but I have 600k US in 2017 for Xbox One X, as does Welfare from the post. 1 million in 2017 WW would be a strong result for a $500 iterative console targeted very specifically at the early adopter enthusiast crowd. Strange reactions in that thread. Shrug.

I don't think people doubt the numbers predicted, they just started fighting over if it was a huge success or not. IMO it is not, it would be a standard launch. If it really is 600K NA and 400K RoTW that its nothing to get excited about.
 

Loris146

Member
Dec 6, 2012
4,487
1
490
The Pachter thread is a train wreck, but I have 600k US in 2017 for Xbox One X, as does Welfare from the post. 1 million in 2017 WW would be a strong result for a $500 iterative console targeted very specifically at the early adopter enthusiast crowd. Strange reactions in that thread. Shrug.

Not strange at all , you are just on neogaf.
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
0
0
I don't think people doubt the numbers predicted, they just started fighting over if it was a huge success or not. IMO it is not, it would be a standard launch. If it really is 600K NA and 400K RoTW that its nothing to get excited about.

To be fair, sales numbers of consumer goods shouldn't excite anyone but the business people and shareholders.

And to say a particular level of sales is a success or not is the definition of meaningless unless the success criteria are specified.

Whole lot of arguing over nothing. But hey, some people love it I guess.
 

hanspampel

Banned
Oct 5, 2016
3,516
0
0
To be fair, sales numbers of consumer goods shouldn't excite anyone but the business people and shareholders.

And to say a particular level of sales is a success or not is the definition of meaningless unless the success criteria are specified.

Whole lot of arguing over nothing. But hey, some people love it I guess.

glad i'm a shareholder and allowed to get excited :D
Xbox One X sales should push Microsofts gaming revenue above $10bn for the first time ever in FY2018

but yeah i'm more thrilled with the ongoing OI improvement of the Personal Computing Division.
it just seems i'm the only one who even cares about that. Everyone else is just about Cloud margins and Office / Dynamics / Microsoft 365 user growth and monetisation



i'm also a bit more bullish on Xbox One and expect 1.5 million in 2017 WW
~950k US
~550k ROTW
expecting close to 3 million total Xbox One console this holiday, the ratio would be a little over 30%
preoder numbers of the regular unit should give a better better picture on Xbox One X demand and if that goes beyond the super early and well informed adaptors who follow the Brand closely and preordered immediately
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
0
0
i'm also a bit more bullish on Xbox One and expect 1.5 million in 2017 WW
~950k US
~550k ROTW

I would be impressed if Microsoft has the confidence to make that many for 2017 holiday.

Given the price point, and retail's aversion to carried inventory that only gets more and more intense, I'm assuming that they'd want to keep production fairly lean until a demand curve is set.

Issue is that if the channel has 75k+ units on shelf at the end of December, the pressure to price promote or price reduce from retail will get pretty strong.

Personally, I'd rather sell out and have my price point firm than have too many units out there and risk price pressure.

Who knows. Would be great if they could get to that kind of number.

I mean, if Switch does what it will do, combined with sustained strength of PS4, and a big holiday boost for Xbox with the Xbox One X? What a fantastic holiday it will be for the business overall.

Which, of course, will bring more development investment which will fuel more games getting made and then game sales which will drive hardware etc etc...

I hope you're right!
 

ethomaz

is mad because DF didn't do a video on a video of a video of a video on PS5
Mar 19, 2013
39,605
39,356
1,310
38
Brazil
The Pachter thread is a train wreck, but I have 600k US in 2017 for Xbox One X, as does Welfare from the post. 1 million in 2017 WW would be a strong result for a $500 iterative console targeted very specifically at the early adopter enthusiast crowd. Strange reactions in that thread. Shrug.
I guess we are at the same boat... 300-400k is my prediction for November plus December put it around 600k in US.

Said that it is a so-so launch like Pro.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Oct 13, 2014
7,121
0
0
Arizona
The Pachter thread is a train wreck, but I have 600k US in 2017 for Xbox One X, as does Welfare from the post. 1 million in 2017 WW would be a strong result for a $500 iterative console targeted very specifically at the early adopter enthusiast crowd. Strange reactions in that thread. Shrug.
Looks like Pachter is also roughly arriving at 600k NA in 2017 for the X (counting a 60% ratio vs WW), which if we assume a fairly usual 2m XB1 sold during Nov/ Dec would be a 30% ratio, close to 1 in 3 XB1 sold.

Personally I don't see it with the Holiday period being so price focused, but it would be a good result indeed for the 1X.

...
i'm also a bit more bullish on Xbox One and expect 1.5 million in 2017 WW
~950k US
~550k ROTW
expecting close to 3 million total Xbox One console this holiday, the ratio would be a little over 30%
preoder numbers of the regular unit should give a better better picture on Xbox One X demand and if that goes beyond the super early and well informed adaptors who follow the Brand closely and preordered immediately

Just curious... Why do you expect 3m XB1 sold this Holiday?
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,511
0
430
i'm also a bit more bullish on Xbox One and expect 1.5 million in 2017 WW
~950k US
~550k ROTW
expecting close to 3 million total Xbox One console this holiday, the ratio would be a little over 30%
preoder numbers of the regular unit should give a better better picture on Xbox One X demand and if that goes beyond the super early and well informed adaptors who follow the Brand closely and preordered immediately

I'd be surprised if MS actually produce that many. It would be better to sell out in the holiday and then have a good control over supply than for potentially +100K units sitting on the shelves like with the XB1.

As of right now, I'm thinking the One X ratio will be ~23-25% of holiday XB1 sales. It's possible MS have the stock for higher sales for the potential casual fan, but that does sound bullish.

Looks like Pachter is also roughly arriving at 600k NA in 2017 for the X (counting a 60% ratio vs WW), which if we assume a fairly usual 2m XB1 sold during Nov/ Dec would be a 30% ratio, close to 1 in 3 XB1 sold.

Personally I don't see it with the Holiday period being so price focused, but it would be a good result indeed for the 1X.

Xbox One is actually does closer to 2.5M every November+December.

Holiday 2014: 2,528,000
Holiday 2015: 2,672,000
Holiday 2016: 2,518,000
 

Bitch Pudding

Member
Oct 3, 2014
8,210
336
570
Germany
I guess we are at the same boat... 300-400k is my prediction for November plus December put it around 600k in US.

Said that it is a so-so launch like Pro.

600k US alone would be a decent start, given how the Pro sold in the last two months of 2016 (less than 500k, if I remember correctly).
 

Sangetsu-II

Member
Dec 5, 2014
4,803
1
340
US
I'd be surprised if MS actually produce that many. It would be better to sell out in the holiday and then have a good control over supply than for potentially +100K units sitting on the shelves like with the XB1.

It's also better to sell out for dat PR Spin.
 

hanspampel

Banned
Oct 5, 2016
3,516
0
0
I'd be surprised if MS actually produce that many. It would be better to sell out in the holiday and then have a good control over supply than for potentially +100K units sitting on the shelves like with the XB1.

As of right now, I'm thinking the One X ratio will be ~23-25% of holiday XB1 sales. It's possible MS have the stock for higher sales for the potential casual fan, but that does sound bullish.



Xbox One is actually does closer to 2.5M every November+December.

Holiday 2014: 2,528,000
Holiday 2015: 2,672,000
Holiday 2016: 2,518,000

Yeah right, but with the Xbox One X launch sales and Xbox One S combined, they should be able to sell closer to 3 million and not only 2.5

2.5 million Xbox One this holiday would be disappointing, no matter how the ratio is.
2.5 million Xbox One this holiday would also be a pretty substantial YoY decline for the full year.
If Xbox One X can't make up some of the current YoY decline, that would be worrisome.
I'm even going as far as saying Xbox should sell above 3 million this November + December to be fine.


on the supply side:
i just can't see how Microsoft could not have at least 1 million units with this much time to prepare for the launch.
The Xbox One X is still a major revision.
What about the Xbox One S? 1 million WW the first 3 months (Aug - September) combined? Sounds about right, too.
Yes the XBox One X has a bigger SOC and is higher priced unit, but components shortages would really surprise me.

I would be impressed if Microsoft has the confidence to make that many for 2017 holiday.

Given the price point, and retail's aversion to carried inventory that only gets more and more intense, I'm assuming that they'd want to keep production fairly lean until a demand curve is set.

Issue is that if the channel has 75k+ units on shelf at the end of December, the pressure to price promote or price reduce from retail will get pretty strong.

Personally, I'd rather sell out and have my price point firm than have too many units out there and risk price pressure.

Who knows. Would be great if they could get to that kind of number.

I mean, if Switch does what it will do, combined with sustained strength of PS4, and a big holiday boost for Xbox with the Xbox One X? What a fantastic holiday it will be for the business overall.

Which, of course, will bring more development investment which will fuel more games getting made and then game sales which will drive hardware etc etc...

I hope you're right!
Yeah, that's why i always try to put a spoiler tag in front of my posts. When you say you're more bullish and optimistic about something, that puts it into perspective for the reader.
Does not mean you have to be right, or anyone else with a less bullish / optimistic or even bearish / pessimistic view has to be wrong.

The market as a whole should be very healthy this holiday, yes. Ps4 won't slow down anytime soon. I don't see Switch and XBox One X to eat into the Ps4 market. Not yet at least. All those intital sales will be complementary.
That would - if - only make an impact on the long run and over the long run in a somewhat slow change.

Inventory is always an issue, yes. But tax repay season already stats in February and at that point we should expect the first delayed exclusives for MS to arrive.
So retailer don't like to have those boxes sitting on shelfs for just 4 or 6 weeks?
Microsoft will sell in that many units obviously only if the preoder numbers for the regular Xbox One X edition will warrant the numbers.
But Microsoft for sure wants to have some units on shelf for non preorder buyers during the holidays. That was the reason that "won" them December 2013 NPD.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Oct 13, 2014
7,121
0
0
Arizona
...
Xbox One is actually does closer to 2.5M every November+December.

Holiday 2014: 2,528,000
Holiday 2015: 2,672,000
Holiday 2016: 2,518,000
Ah yeah, not sure why but I had both XB1 and PS4 doing roughly 2m in the Holidays in mind.

At about 2.5m a 600k would be roughly 1 in 4 XB1 sold, or 25% ratio.

Still too much imo, but not impossible at all.
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,511
0
430
Yeah right, but with the Xbox One X launch sales and Xbox One S combined, they should be able to sell closer to 3 million and not only 2.5

2.5 million Xbox One this holiday would be disappointing, no matter how the ratio is.
2.5 million Xbox One this holiday would also be a pretty substantial YoY decline for the full year.
If Xbox One X can't make up some of the current YoY decline, that would be worrisome.
I'm even going as far as saying Xbox should sell above 3 million this November + December to be fine.

One S has been a disappointment this entire year and will be responsible for what will be an average Xbox One holiday. Even with a great One X result, the total is limited by what One S can sell, which going by the YoY declines, will sell worse than last year. Hoping for this holiday to be the second best yet is probably the most realistic outcome than One X single handedly reversing the YoY drops from earlier in the year.

However, I would love for the data to come out and One X is a massive success and accomplishes that. That news would be wonderful.


on the supply side:
i just can't see how Microsoft could not have at least 1 million units with this much time to prepare for the launch.
The Xbox One X is still a major revision.
What about the Xbox One S? 1 million WW the first 3 months (Aug - September) combined? Sounds about right, too.
Yes the XBox One X has a bigger SOC and is higher priced unit, but components shortages would really surprise me.
I don't think supply shortages would be an issue, but because MS can manufacture a certain amount of units doesn't mean all those units will be sold.

One S was to replace the XB1, so yes that would have a large amount of units produced, but the One X won't replace the One S, so stock availability and shelf presence is different for the two products. It could be considered a risk to have more units than necessary for the One X, but maybe they benefit from it if they can tap into the market that isn't purely current Xbox One owners.
 

kyser73

Member
Sep 29, 2013
8,119
0
520
The Pachter thread is a train wreck, but I have 600k US in 2017 for Xbox One X, as does Welfare from the post. 1 million in 2017 WW would be a strong result for a $500 iterative console targeted very specifically at the early adopter enthusiast crowd. Strange reactions in that thread. Shrug.

I've said it before - as soon as anyone uses an intensifier in a sales discussion it goes to shit.

I'm actually more bullish than you on X1X, and I think it could get up to 1.5m over holidays WW.

I do have one question for you though, Matt.

What's the split between first and third party sales on Switch?
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
Can't disclose, but historically Nintendo platforms are more heavily weighted towards 1st party than other platforms.

I wonder, how would this look if you scaled it against (or found a way to normalize/weight against) the delta between first party releases from the other two since Nintendo produces a lot more (if not an order more) titles per year than either Sony or MS.

Just a curiosity!
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
0
0
I wonder, how would this look if you scaled it against (or found a way to normalize/weight against) the delta between first party releases from the other two since Nintendo produces a lot more (if not an order more) titles per year than either Sony or MS.

Just a curiosity!

I'd challenge your assumption on Nintendo producing more titles than Sony or Microsoft, at least historically. A higher percentage of total releases on Nintendo platforms have come from 1st party across the 3DS, Wii U and Switch, but total release counts are comparable or lower than the other first parties.



1st Party = Published by 1st Party. May or may not be internal development.
 

hanspampel

Banned
Oct 5, 2016
3,516
0
0
I'd challenge your assumption on Nintendo producing more titles than Sony or Microsoft, at least historically. A higher percentage of total releases on Nintendo platforms have come from 1st party across the 3DS, Wii U and Switch, but total release counts are comparable or lower than the other first parties.

i assume those release count numbers are LTD!?
1 party is 1 party studios and 2 party studios published by the platformholder?

edit: ohh nvm. the sweet data is gone :)

That was a cool table Matt

well at least it's public information and if some1 is willing to put the work in, that person just has to count every physical release of the last 20 years in the US and categorize them:D
 

3rdamention

Member
Oct 27, 2006
7,996
2
1,005
Yeah right, but with the Xbox One X launch sales and Xbox One S combined, they should be able to sell closer to 3 million and not only 2.5

2.5 million Xbox One this holiday would be disappointing, no matter how the ratio is.
2.5 million Xbox One this holiday would also be a pretty substantial YoY decline for the full year.
If Xbox One X can't make up some of the current YoY decline, that would be worrisome.
I'm even going as far as saying Xbox should sell above 3 million this November + December to be fine.


on the supply side:
i just can't see how Microsoft could not have at least 1 million units with this much time to prepare for the launch.
The Xbox One X is still a major revision.
What about the Xbox One S? 1 million WW the first 3 months (Aug - September) combined? Sounds about right, too.
Yes the XBox One X has a bigger SOC and is higher priced unit, but components shortages would really surprise me.


Yeah, that's why i always try to put a spoiler tag in front of my posts. When you say you're more bullish and optimistic about something, that puts it into perspective for the reader.
Does not mean you have to be right, or anyone else with a less bullish / optimistic or even bearish / pessimistic view has to be wrong.

The market as a whole should be very healthy this holiday, yes. Ps4 won't slow down anytime soon. I don't see Switch and XBox One X to eat into the Ps4 market. Not yet at least. All those intital sales will be complementary.
That would - if - only make an impact on the long run and over the long run in a somewhat slow change.

Inventory is always an issue, yes. But tax repay season already stats in February and at that point we should expect the first delayed exclusives for MS to arrive.
So retailer don't like to have those boxes sitting on shelfs for just 4 or 6 weeks?
Microsoft will sell in that many units obviously only if the preoder numbers for the regular Xbox One X edition will warrant the numbers.
But Microsoft for sure wants to have some units on shelf for non preorder buyers during the holidays. That was the reason that "won" them December 2013 NPD.




Do you really feel that the Xbox One S is going to pull similar numbers this Holiday season as the Xbox Brand has the last few holiday seasons, despite how low sales have been the last few months for the Xbox One?
THEN, Xbox One X will add another 500 thousand sales to that? I know you said they "should" be able to.


I just cannot see that happening, at least the part where the One S sells 2.5million this holiday.