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September 2011 NPD Predictions - closes October 10
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
MikeE21286
Member
Just curious....what is the calculation for "points"?
Going back to the mothership thread to look for the rules for Mike, I ended up eventually back at the full-year prediction thread. I wrote this:
Not horrible, given what's happened. Overestimated Wii's staying power, and underestimated the strength of Kinect to keep Xbox 360 going. Nailed the PS3 and (kind of) the DS line.
walking fiend
Member
thx donny!
You provided lots of data, esp the graph on request was really helpful predicting 360, it would be a waste of your efforts if I couldn't use them
You provided lots of data, esp the graph on request was really helpful predicting 360, it would be a waste of your efforts if I couldn't use them
MikeE21286
Member
jvm said:
Yeah, logic would have predicted at least a cut for the 360 to $180.
walking fiend
Member
MikeE21286 said:
Not really:
1. Slim is practically a price cut compared to arcade versions, as it offers much more value at the same price. They did cut arcade by 50 back then to make it go.
Selling the better thing at the same price is practically a price cut.
2. Kinect is sold alone at >$130, and 360 bare at $200. So if Microsoft didn't bundle them at $300, everyone that bought them separate would give them almost >$30 profit. bundling makes both sell better, but so would have had a price cut. However, this option has been more attractive for them for some reasons.
3. Microsoft was giving away free 360s till the early September for more than a month if I remember correctly.
What I see, is that these effects are fainting, and 360 will lag behind Wii more than the last year for December and PS3 will also take up more share, if 360 doesn't get a price cut.
Also, since Kinect is really not moving software, I wonder how much short term profit pushing Kinect this much is going to have for 360, and if it wasn't better to cut the 360 price and cut into PC/PS3 market instead of cutting into Wii hardware market. So it makes me believe that they have very long term plans with Kinect, whether it succeeds or not is something which bothers me as I can't find an answer to. I thought it would set the world on fire for at least dancing genre, as the Wii controller is something that you just don't want while dancing, but it seems not to be the case.
MikeE21286
Member
^ Remember that his prediction was made at the beginning of the year he said:
The long-term viability of Kinect was in speculation, and questions around the viability of the nice surge that 360 had received in recent months (at that time) were in question.
The long-term viability of Kinect was in speculation, and questions around the viability of the nice surge that 360 had received in recent months (at that time) were in question.