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Sales-Age July 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, August 8th

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
ITT, predict for the NPD July 2017 retail period (July 2-29, 2017) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, August 8th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: July 2-29, 2017 (4 weeks, June was 5 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, August 10th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 1 week later on August 17th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000

Potential hardware impacting events in July:
Splatoon 2 (July 21st, extra stock for release) - 9 days
Summer doldrums

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

June's results
June hardware numbers
PS4: 382k, +63% y/y
Switch: 216k
XB1: 153k, -28% y/y
June 2016 NPD thread
July 2016 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 

freefornow

Member
Feb 13, 2013
1,427
357
580
Going by my track record so far this year, I just dont know any more!

[NSW] 235k
[PS4] 245k
[XB1] 107k

Crash thirst is real!
 

Reg

Banned
Oct 22, 2011
2,830
0
0
Haven't been following sales too closely but yeesh at those xbox numbers from last month.
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,511
0
430
[NSW] 285K
[PS4] 203K
[XB1] 113K

Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of June and July. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because June is a 5 week month while July is only 4. I've also gathered software sales and potential hardware deals to explain any changes between July and June

Code:
2011

Xbox 360 June: 507K / 5 = 101,400
Xbox 360 July: 277K / 4 = 69,250

Weekly average down 32%

PS3 June: 276K / 5 = 55,200
PS3 July: 145K / 4 = 36,250

[b]Notable Releases in July[/b]

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 12

[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 12
Code:
2012

Xbox 360 June: 257K / 5 = 51,400
Xbox 360 July: 203K / 4 = 50,750

Weekly average down 1%

PS3 June: 188K / 5 = 37,600
PS3 July: 139K / 4 = 34,750

Weekly average down 8%

[b]Notable Releases in July[/b]

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 13

[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 13
Code:
2013

Xbox 360 June: 140K / 5 = 28,000
Xbox 360 July: 107K / 4 = 26,750

Weekly average down 4%

PS3 June: 109K / 5 = 21,800
PS3 July: 79k / 4 = 19,750

Weekly average down 9%

[b]Notable Releases in July[/b]

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 14

[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 14
Code:
2014

Xbox 360 June: 62k / 5 = 12,400
Xbox 360 July: 54K / 4 = 13,500

Weekly average up 9%

Xbox One June: 197K / 5 = 39,400
Xbox One July: 131K / 4 = 32,750

Weekly average down 17%

PS3 June: 42k / 5 = 8,400
PS3 July: 32k / 4 = 8,000

Weekly average down 5%

PS4 June: 269K / 5 = 53,800
PS4 July: 187K / 4 = 46,750

Weekly average down 13%

[b]Notable Releases in July[/b]

[u]PS4[/u]
The Last of Us Remastered [270K]
Code:
2015

Xbox One June: 296K / 5 = 59,200
Xbox One July: 188K / 4 = 47,000

Weekly average down 21%

PS4 June: 364K / 5 = 72,820
PS4 July: 217K / 4 = 54,250

Weekly average down 25%

[b]Notable Releases in July[/b]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Amazon Prime Day July 15th

[u]PS4[/u]
Amazon Prime Day July 15th
Code:
2016

Xbox One June: 211,888 / 5 = 42,378
Xbox One July: 171,123 / 4 = 42,781

Weekly average up 1%

PS4 June: 234,477 / 5 = 46,895
PS4 July: 161,199 / 4 = 40,300

Weekly average down 14%

[b]Notable Releases in July[/b]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
500GB and Kinect bundles price cut to $249 July 24th (1 week)

Amazon Prime Day July 12th

[u]PS4[/u]
Amazon Prime Day July 12th
Code:
2017 June Weekly Averages

Switch: 215,582 / 5 weeks = 43,116
PS4: 381,196 / 5 weeks = 76,239
Xbox One: 153,389 / 5 weeks = 30,678

[b]Notable Releases in July[/b]
[u]Switch[/u]
Supply constrained

Splatoon 2 [2 weeks]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Amazon Prime Day July 10th

[u]PS4[/u]
Amazon Prime Day July 10th

Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age [3 weeks]
Notes:

While going from a 5 week month to a 4 week month, the weekly sales average also falls from June. The drop isn't normally massive, and very rarely will it ever increase from June. Depending on what released in June or July could lead to either massive drop, a small drop, or flat from June.

Also, maybe Amazon Prime Day is going to be a big event from now? It growing every year and becoming a massive sales day for the website can have a positive effect on console sales for the month.

Xbox
The Xbox 360 average weekly drop is -7%, with the biggest drop being -32% (2011) and biggest rise being +9% (2014). 2011 was the peak year for Xbox 360 and June was an incredible month for both it and PS3. I have no idea what caused the 2014 bump.

The Xbox One hasn't had the greatest holds from June as 2014 had the $399 SKU launch and 2015 had the $399 1TB launch. July 2016 however had a price drop to $249 at the end of the month while also benefiting from the massive price cuts it received in mid June. June 2017 had a one week $249 deal on 500GB bundles but it had very little effect. Possible that with Prime Day, July 2017 won't be a big drop. The average drop with 2016 is -12%, and without it, -19%.

PlayStation
The PS3 average weekly drop is -14%, with the biggest drop being -34% (2011) and smallest drop being -5% (2014). 2011 was the peak year for PS3 and June was an incredible month for both it and Xbox 360. The weekly average without 2011 is -7%.

PS4 averages a drop of -18%, the biggest drop being -25% (2015) and the smallest being -13% (2014).

I think it's possible that sales in summer are more concentrated in June now as PS4 and XB1 have larger drops going into July than last gen. 2015 had the Batman bundles at the end of June so that would be why 2015 had a -25% drop. 2017 will most likely follow 2015 as this June had the limited $249 1TB Gold PS4 that already jumped up to $299, and might be in low supply? Not sure on how easy to find it is now.

Nintendo
Switch is still supply constrained, but with Splatoon 2 launching, we could see Nintendo send equal or more stock this month from June thanks to stockpiling. We saw the same happen in Japan where they were able to send ~100K units for Splatoon 2 week when before they were shipping ~30K a week.

Recap
July is a slower month than June even if you account for the one less week the month has.

The biggest July ever recorded during the 7th gen was the Wii with 555,000 back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 443,500 back in 2011.

The biggest July ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 217K in 2015. Second biggest? Xbox One with 188K in 2015.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Jun 12, 2012
14,205
0
0
Thanks. ^^
So everything should be likely be down then.

Well, Switch is a wildcard of course, but nonetheless.
 

Zedark

Member
Feb 22, 2016
5,220
1
290
NSW] 330K
[PS4] 240K
[XB1] 110K

An interesting note: Japanese ratio of sales has remained approximately steady when comparing March earnings release and June earnings release for Switch, which suggests that Nintendo is shipping in approximately steady ratios across the world. Japan had about 145k units last month, and now is already at 157k after only 3 of 4 weeks. I think this will hold this week as well (no guarantee of course, Splatoon 2 is a phenomenon in Japan after all), so I will wait for the Media Create sales for the current week before deciding on a Switch number.

Edit: Media Create number for the month finished at 246k, up from 145k the month before. Using that ratio and multiplying by the alleged 215k for last June, I am betting on 365k for Switch.
 

Mikey Jr.

Member
Dec 5, 2008
17,596
204
1,045
Toronto
Haven't been following sales too closely but yeesh at those xbox numbers from last month.
Seriously. Xbox got bodied.

I understand in holiday month, couple 100k is ok when you are selling million+.

But over 200k gap in a summer month of all places is just...... Ohh boy.
 

Tratorn

Member
Sep 2, 2011
2,362
1
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I think many people here are overestimating the PS4 this month. It was strong in June because of Days of Play and the golden PS4. But both things won't help this month to get the PS4 up YOY that much (from 160k to 220k+). Crash is mostly selling to the normal PlayStation audience so that won't sell that many systems either.
 

Unknown?

Member
Jan 5, 2016
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574
435
I think many people here are overestimating the PS4 this month. It was strong in June because of Days of Play and the golden PS4. But both things won't help this month to get the PS4 up YOY that much (from 160k to 220k+). Crash is mostly selling to the normal PlayStation audience so that won't sell that many systems either.
Crash has sold a lot of PS4s though. Maybe not in mass but it's a system seller.
 

OrbitalBeard

Member
Jun 2, 2013
24,901
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I think many people here are overestimating the PS4 this month. It was strong in June because of Days of Play and the golden PS4. But both things won't help this month to get the PS4 up YOY that much (from 160k to 220k+). Crash is mostly selling to the normal PlayStation audience so that won't sell that many systems either.
I would think Crash would appeal to some lapsed 90's gamers, no? Could be a system seller.
 

Humdinger

Member
Apr 21, 2010
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650
I think many people here are overestimating the PS4 this month. It was strong in June because of Days of Play and the golden PS4. But both things won't help this month to get the PS4 up YOY that much (from 160k to 220k+). Crash is mostly selling to the normal PlayStation audience so that won't sell that many systems either.
I agree. I think PS sales will fall back considerably in July.
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
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So last week's Japan numbers came out last week and Switch had similar stock available to the Splatoon 2 launch.

Media Create Week 29: 98,999
Media Create Week 30: 89,314

Famitsu Week 29: 102,581
Famitsu Week 30: 105,697

Media Create July 2017: 246,475
Famitsu July 2017: 269,575

Anyone with retailer knowledge, was this something you saw as well or was there a bigger drop off from Splatoon 2?
 
Sep 4, 2015
13,402
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July Top Downloads

1 Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy
2 Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor – Game of the Year Edition
3 God of War III Remastered
4 Friday the 13th: The Game
5 Rocket League
6 Grand Theft Auto V
7 Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition
8 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare Remastered
9 Ratchet & Clank
10 EA SPORTS UFC 2
11 Final Fantasy XII The Zodiac Age
12 STAR WARS Battlefront Ultimate Edition
13 Madden NFL 17
14 Battlefield 1
15 Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Wildlands
16 How to Survive 2
17 MLB The Show 17
18 Mad Max
19 ARK: Survival Evolved
20 Elite Dangerous
https://blog.us.playstation.com/2017/08/03/playstation-store-julys-top-downloads-2/