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Sales-Age July 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, August 8th

ethomaz

I can't stay out of MS threads because Phil is pretty
Mar 19, 2013
32,635
19,261
1,125
38
Brazil
I hope it is not late.

[NSW] 200k
[PS4] 200k
[XB1] 120k
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
0
0
I am just doing it for fun. You actually have to do this for your job. Must be tough.
I bang on Excel, look at Twitter/GAF, and then write and talk about video games all day. 99.99% of people have a tougher gig than mine. But I appreciate what you're saying.
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
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430
I'm just guessing (and hoping) July saw close to 300K in stock. Something like ~35K for the first 2 weeks (trying to normalize a bottom that Nintendo could ship a week that doesn't account for a big game releasing that week), +100K for Splatoon 2, then maybe 80K-100K for the 4th week. This is assuming USA is prioritized along with Japan for brand new stock from ramped up production towards the end of the month.

Anything 250K and up, I'd be fine with even if I'm off by +10K. <250K and I'm gonna start questioning some things with Nintendo.
 

theprodigy

Member
Aug 25, 2013
24,331
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0
aww fuck I'm late cause almost no internet on vacation

uh lemme make a for fun entry real quick

[PS4] 250k
[NSW] 225k
[XB1] 120k
 
Jun 18, 2014
1,841
0
0
Seoul, South Korea
I'm just guessing (and hoping) July saw close to 300K in stock. Something like ~35K for the first 2 weeks (trying to normalize a bottom that Nintendo could ship a week that doesn't account for a big game releasing that week), +100K for Splatoon 2, then maybe 80K-100K for the 4th week. This is assuming USA is prioritized along with Japan for brand new stock from ramped up production towards the end of the month.

Anything 250K and up, I'd be fine with even if I'm off by +10K. <250K and I'm gonna start questioning some things with Nintendo.
Everything you are saying makes me nod my head in agreement, but I still find myself doubting Nintendo's ability to do what makes sense. I can totally see a senario where they handled the Splatoon launch by gimping the US stock to make Japan bundles rather then prioritize both. However, I could be dead wrong. Hopefully they get stock sorted out sooner rather than later. Christmas is just around the corner...
 

noshten

Member
Oct 20, 2014
3,860
30
410
Sofia
I think Splatoon 2 is going to be over 500K for July on the NPD.
It opened around 800K in Japan and although it's not as big in the US I do expect a very strong opening - below BotW above MK8D(because it only had a few days in Aprils NPD)

In terms of markets this is the expectations I have:
Japan(+-800K) > NA > France > Germany(below 100K for July) > UK(around 40K for July) > Spain

Japan
M-C: 753.411
Famitsu: 800.394
Germany:
2nd for July
no BIU award thus under 100K for July
France:
2 weeks in 1st position in weekly rankings
UK
[Week 30, 2017] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) - 12,300 / 40,300 (-56%)

Amazon Annual Charts(just video game SKUs)
US: 4th
France: 9th
Canada: 12th
Germany: 15th
UK: 31st

Depending on NPD figures and eShop Sales it's going to be around 2 million for launch month. Splatoon on the Wii U took a little under a month to sale 1 million copies, something the sequel did easily during it's launch week.
 

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
17,649
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All I'll add is the last monthish has seen much better supply for Switch. Especially the last 2 or 3 weeks is a big improvement
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
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I do wonder if Nintendo sends out PR tonight. Should have been a good month with Splatoon 2.
 

ethomaz

I can't stay out of MS threads because Phil is pretty
Mar 19, 2013
32,635
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Brazil
Any leak?

I know people already has the data in hands :)
 

ethomaz

I can't stay out of MS threads because Phil is pretty
Mar 19, 2013
32,635
19,261
1,125
38
Brazil
Numbers has been leaked few hours ago :p

Hardware:
NSW: 222K
PS4: 217K (+34.7%)
3DS: 105K (-44.3%)

Software:
PS4: 2299K (+52.0%)
NSW: 736K
3DS: 384K (-49.2%)

Splatoon 2 #1 332k
 

OrbitalBeard

Member
Jun 2, 2013
24,901
5
0
Numbers has been leaked few hours ago :p

Hardware:
NSW: 222K
PS4: 217K (+34.7%)
3DS: 105K (-44.3%)

Software:
PS4: 2299K (+52.0%)
NSW: 736K
3DS: 384K (-49.2%)

Splatoon 2 #1 332k
Those are good Splatoon 2 numbers, but I thought it might do a bit better. Wonder if those #s include digital sales. I'd assume not.
 
Feb 21, 2007
46,807
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Texas
Numbers has been leaked few hours ago :p

Hardware:
NSW: 222K
PS4: 217K (+34.7%)
3DS: 105K (-44.3%)

Software:
PS4: 2299K (+52.0%)
NSW: 736K
3DS: 384K (-49.2%)

Splatoon 2 #1 332k
I'm surprised Nintendo hasn't released a PR statement touting the Switch as July's #1 best selling console, along with Spla2oon being the #1 best selling game.
 

noshten

Member
Oct 20, 2014
3,860
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410
Sofia
Underwhelming for Splatoon 2, I expected it to open better than MK8D due to longer period/more switch owners.

In terms of the Switch just shows that Nintendo concentrated the supply to Japan for the Splatoon 2 launch. There was slightly more supply for NA but not the type of jump we've seen in Japan.