If Nintendo kept the same ratio it would hit 380k in the us this month. But a large part of the Japan sales were the Splatoon bundles so there is no way to know.
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July 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, August 8th
CorporateClown
Member
[NSW] 305K
[PS4] 205K
[XB1] 105K
[PS4] 205K
[XB1] 105K
ThatRandomCliff
Member
[NSW] 230,000
[PS4] 205,000
[XB1] 110,000
[PS4] 205,000
[XB1] 110,000
archnemesis
Member
[NSW] 215K
[PS4] 205K
[XB1] 108K
[PS4] 205K
[XB1] 108K
Sangetsu-II
Member
NPD is dead, NOOO!
Heyo all - Sorry for the delay in coming by.
There's been some good commentary in here about trends, that have held true for this month with us.
Certain things that helped boost last month for the PS4 to the high numbers we saw weren't really present for this month, so I haven't seen anything to maintain that kind of high momentum on a weekly basis for the PS4. It's still selling consistently, just I'd be definitely surprised if it had another banner month, so to speak. It's been a great year in terms of game releases for the system, but July didn't really have much to help push by comparison, besides the remaining Crash sales, etc.
Switch stock continues to be a roller coaster. Major releases get stock shifts, but beyond that, it's a crapshoot. It might be a toss up for who wins the month though, depending on where that stock actually tallies up between the retailers, I know some of the shipments were pretty decent for a particular launch.
XB1 doesn't really have any positive commentary to offer on their momentum at this point. It has not reached Wii U levels, obviously, but nothing it has done has improved the situation in any way thus far. I just don't think it is a healthy situation to see this kind of status and then plan to try and play for a recovery in the last 2 months, when it's even less likely to make up that much this year.
- I wish I could offer free download cards to get people to download Dreadnought. That game is a blast for an early access/open beta game... taking all my damn time out of work. I need to finish FFXII!
There's been some good commentary in here about trends, that have held true for this month with us.
Certain things that helped boost last month for the PS4 to the high numbers we saw weren't really present for this month, so I haven't seen anything to maintain that kind of high momentum on a weekly basis for the PS4. It's still selling consistently, just I'd be definitely surprised if it had another banner month, so to speak. It's been a great year in terms of game releases for the system, but July didn't really have much to help push by comparison, besides the remaining Crash sales, etc.
Switch stock continues to be a roller coaster. Major releases get stock shifts, but beyond that, it's a crapshoot. It might be a toss up for who wins the month though, depending on where that stock actually tallies up between the retailers, I know some of the shipments were pretty decent for a particular launch.
XB1 doesn't really have any positive commentary to offer on their momentum at this point. It has not reached Wii U levels, obviously, but nothing it has done has improved the situation in any way thus far. I just don't think it is a healthy situation to see this kind of status and then plan to try and play for a recovery in the last 2 months, when it's even less likely to make up that much this year.
- I wish I could offer free download cards to get people to download Dreadnought. That game is a blast for an early access/open beta game... taking all my damn time out of work. I need to finish FFXII!
I am quite confuse after your update. On one hand you are saying that PS4 sales are like regular July sales which according to historic data are around 200k or less and on other hand you are saying anyone from Switch or PS4 can win, which means both are around 200k. But also switch has recieved good shipment around Splatoon and looking at Japan data this should mean around 300k atleast for America too. So does this means PS4 also moved above 250k units? I highly doubt this
Sangetsu-II
Member
Thanks for the input Abdiel, you really made this prediction even harder for us, honestly lol.
If PS4 sales are that of a regular July. I think it's safe to say Switch won this month but not by a landslide only because of last minute stock for Splatoon 2 launch it seems.
Hey Noobie - you have some good thoughts here, so let me elaborate a bit more since I didn't qualify it specifically in my original post. Part of why I mentioned that the Switch or PS4 could take it is because while the PS4 continues to truck along at a consistent rate for its usual habits in a month like July, with nothing tremendous boosting it, the Switch remains inconsistent for us, so it's hard for me to gauge a specific value for it...
However - When they send out specific stocks for various games, ie Splatoon and such, I have no idea how much they might favor other vendors. Gamestop and Walmart are still larger percentages of the gaming market (I'm sure Mat might be able to give a better percentage on that, perhaps?) - So it's hard for me to have an idea of how Nintendo sends out their stock to the entire gaming market for the U.S., especially when sometimes the bundles that various game companies do, aren't even available through us. Gamestop has been doing sales for another company of those special bundles with various Zelda swag, but I have no idea how much stock is actually allocated for something like that. For Splatoon's launch, that is a game that is heavily marketed to the younger market, and despite Best Buy's efforts to get more gaming share, GS and Walmart definitely still get more of that market, even if only due to parents more commonly buying from there or associating.
That's why I'm not sure. I've heard mention that certain local Targets/walmarts have gotten shipments on weeks where we had nothing, so I don't have a way to make a clear line on that.
I hope that helps more, on why I don't want to make a clear assumption from what data I have. It could easily be that the Switch takes it, if Nintendo prioritized enough stock. It certainly wouldn't surprise me, I just can't see the entire market beyond my own brand's data.
Mikey Jr.
Member
Yeah, not sure what MS is thinking with the Xbox. Has these periods where it falls into an abyss for months at a time.
I think Scorpio is a mistake to be honest. They should have just waited and launched Xbox 2 in a few years. Rebrand the whole thing.
$399, no gimmicks, new generation, plays 4 generations of games right out the box(xbox, 360, one, and two), and show off some new high profile AAA titles to go with it.
But nahh, MS thinks scorpio is the way to go.
Abdiel, you have any thoughts on Xbox Scorpio? You guys get much mention of it?
Sangetsu-II
Member
I second this, any walking in pre-orders questions or interest for the XB1 X Abdiel? (Even though no pre-order is available lol)
Thanks again, Abdiel. Always a pleasure reading your insights and I genuinely dread that day when we stop getting them 
I think they think they could build turn the tide so they can go into the next gen with enough positive goodwill in the bank ala Sony with its first party deluge last gen. As for you other question ("Why forsake mid-year") Well, it's all preseason anyway!
I think they think they could build turn the tide so they can go into the next gen with enough positive goodwill in the bank ala Sony with its first party deluge last gen. As for you other question ("Why forsake mid-year") Well, it's all preseason anyway!
Mikey Jr.
Member
Thanks again, Abdiel. Always a pleasure reading your insights and I genuinely dread that day when we stop getting them
I think they think they could build turn the tide so they can go into the next gen with enough positive goodwill in the bank ala Sony with its first party deluge last gen. As for you other question ("Why forsake mid-year") Well, it's all preseason anyway!
When the S launched, I was surprised by how well it was doing. I think it even beat PS4 for a few months. It felt like a refresh, a new start.
But that slowly deteriorated, and its back to the old status quo.
I suspect the S did well from existing Xbox One owners upgrading to the sleeker system. That may explain why sales dropped off a cliff after that initial wave wore off. That same scenario may play out with the X come November because that revision is even more targeted towards the existing userbase. Once the initial wave wears off, I would not be surprised if total Xbox One unit sales in 2018 are flat or lower than 2017.
Microsoft is doubling down on existing users while doing little in the way of enticing new users to buy into their ecosystem.
OrbitalBeard
Member
This is pretty much exactly what I think is going to happen. The X will do great in November and December. Maybe even January. But that'll be about it, unless they have some killer deals and/or software announcements after the Holidays.
Prototype Viktor
Member
[NSW] 253K
[PS4] 240K
[XB1] 106K
[PS4] 240K
[XB1] 106K
Jasong7777
Banned
[NSW] 270K
[PS4] 205K
[XB1] 110K
[PS4] 205K
[XB1] 110K
OfficerRaichu15
Member
So is Splatoon 2 looking at a half a million debut?
Humdinger
Member
PS4 does 63 million? That would be quite a month.
I think I've spoken on this before, in some of the previous NPD threads since E3 and the Scorpio announcement, but maybe not as recently, that's for certain...
I believe I talked about the Xbox One X sales impacting the XB1S sales in the interim, and that I don't believe it would be having much impact at this point. For a couple reasons, but especially with the gulf of pricing between them, there market impact is vastly different for who would be considered a viable customer base.
As to your specific questions here, about consumer interest, yes, we've absolutely had inquiries about the XB1X. However I've made a point to ask each customer who has talked to me about it, and without fail, those who have inquired have all been existing owners, looking to trade up to that system. The people on GAF talking about PS4 owners who might want to trade towards it, I've yet to encounter any customers looking for that, and no one has even mentioned the PS4 Pro as a trade in towards an XB1X, though I'm sure it's happened somewhere out there.
Basically, there's been people looking to order it, to secure a system at launch, but none of those I've spoken to were people who didn't already own a system and were looking to jump in without any existing library, etc. They're all already been invested and aware of it.
Thanks again, Abdiel. Always a pleasure reading your insights and I genuinely dread that day when we stop getting them
I think they think they could build turn the tide so they can go into the next gen with enough positive goodwill in the bank ala Sony with its first party deluge last gen. As for you other question ("Why forsake mid-year") Well, it's all preseason anyway!
Glad I can continue to be of service. If I'm not able to provide insights anymore, I'll at least do what I can to let you know in advance.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Thank you Abdiel as always.
It seems like XB1 X is even less of a reason to own than the PS4 Pro if you didn't already own their previous consoles. So much for growing the fanbase and I have to agree with Mikey Jr. I fear XB1 X will have the same fate as the S, good sales for 3 months then fall of a cliff.
I expect a price drop next year for the X then.
It's a phenomenon in terms of social impact and market size in Japan.
But in terms of raw units, USA and Japan are pretty neck in neck and have been.
So I could see Japan getting a few more units, but not by a lot imo.
Prototype Viktor
Member
It's a thing I do before I finalize
Yep. I believe I've said something similar before. They'll milk the existing user as much, however possible to offset the loss in size for their base.
Putting aside what Shinobi and Matt alluded to, MS+Killer Software post-holidays does not compute.
perfectchaos007
Member
[NSW] 300K
[PS4] 234K
[XB1] 163K
[PS4] 234K
[XB1] 163K
OrbitalBeard
Member
Well yeah, which is why I think the X (and the S) are going to have it rough come 2018.
Welfare
Member
Eh, MS did push State of Decay 2 and Sea of Thieves to early 2018, while also having Ori WotW. That's probably the best first half of the year for 1st party lineup from Xbox this whole gen.
Sangetsu-II
Member
That's really sad though, Ori WotW will probably sell more than both those other titles combined.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Does Ori even have a release window?
Welfare
Member
I actually meant to edit in that it still wasn't that great of a schedule.
I highly doubt Ori outsells either of the other two. SoD2 will sell good as the first one was very well received while also having co op and SoT can easily be a hit.
IIRC, someone at MS said that what was announced at E3 should be out before next E3.
Sangetsu-II
Member
You sound very optimistic, I'll give you that
^Sorta a biased opinion because Ori still remains the only Microsoft exclusive I like...Cuphead to follow suit.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Oh, cool. Thanks. Looking forward to that game very much.
Welfare
Member
I have high hopes for Ori as I really liked it as well but thinking about it, the other two games have a much higher chance of selling more, especially if either of them becomes a good "stream" game.You sound very optimistic, I'll give you that
^Sorta a biased opinion because Ori still remains the only Microsoft exclusive I like...Cuphead to follow suit.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Now while Ori looks fantastic and SoT is pretty unique as far as I can tell, I doubt that any of those titles qualify as "killer games" (system sellers), compared to Halo or Gears.
Frankly, I doubted Crash Remake's success and impact , too, hence my excellent June score...
MatPiscatella
Member
Hello party people... while you're waiting on results, there's an interesting article in this thread about Remasters and stuff I was quoted in. Would be cool if some of y'all would join in on the discussion since it's sales related.
Tell me about it.
Tell me about it.
KillerMan91
Member
[NSW] 310K
[PS4] 214K
[XB1] 120K
[PS4] 214K
[XB1] 120K