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November 2011 NPD Predictions - closes December 5

D

donny2112

Member
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, December 5th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: October 30-November 26 (4 weeks, October was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: December 8th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[NDS]
[PS3]
[WII]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good               Bad
[360] 1000K        [360] 1.0 million
[360] 1,000,000    [360] 1.000.000
[360] 1000000      [360] - 1000000


Potential hardware impacting events in November:
It's November (see percentage increases last year, for example)
360 Modern Warfare 3 320GB Bundle - Nov. 8
Black Friday (Nov. 25) sales - 360 4GB w/ Kinect $199 @ some places, Blue non-bundle Wii $99 @ Wal-Mart, PS3 160GB Holiday Bundle $199 @ some places


October's Results - thanks to Road

Road said:
Hardware

360 - 393k (+14.9%)
3DS - >250k
WII - <250k (<+7.75%)
PS3 - 240k~250k (estimated from Microsoft, Nintendo and NPD PR) (-4.0% - 0.0%)
NDS - <180k (>-47.4%)
Click to expand...

Oct-10 -> Nov-10 transition:

Code: 
      Oct-10    Nov-10 % change
360     325K    1.37m  +322%
NDS     342K    1.5m   +339%
PS3     250K    530K   +112%
WII     232K    1.27m  +447%

NPD Prediction Thread Archive

Note:
Nintendo Black Friday PR. 3DS sales went up 325% compared to week before SML3D released. Wii had biggest Black Friday ever with 500K just from the Thursday night/Friday sales.
Microsoft Black Friday PR. 960K 360s sold the week of Black Friday. Biggest week for 360 evar!
 
A

Averon

Member
[360] 1,500,000
[3DS] 900,000
[NDS] 320,000
[PS3] 1,050,000
[WII] 1,200,000

Just shooting in the dark here.
 
Z

Zero-Crescent

Member
[360] 1300K
[3DS] 750K
[NDS] 650K
[PS3] 750K
[WII] 950K

EDIT: Nintendo's PR makes me think my 3DS number was way too optimistic. The new number is still pretty optimistic, but I'm hedging in case it goes either way.
 
B

BurntPork

Banned
[360] 1,750,000
[3DS] 750,000
[NDS] 750,000
[PS3] 600,000
[WII] 1,300,000

Edit due to Nintendo's PR...

Second edit due to Microsoft's PR.

Edit 3 for PS3 PRlol
 
M

Madao

Member
[360] 1440K
[3DS] 1080K
[NDS] 480K
[PS3] 640K
[WII] 1280K

it begins. let's see if the 3DS gets its turn around in america.
 
Karak

Karak

Member
DMPrince said:
you say that now.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I have almost stopped paying attention to what they do and just in awe of their sales. Too bad Amazon isn't collected in these numbers as they have been making a killing on the top lists as well.

It just dwarfs the mind how well they do with no drop in price. And kudo's to them.

[360] 1450k
[3DS] 950k
[NDS] 600k
[PS3] 650k
[WII] 1200k
 
B

BurntPork

Banned
donny2112 said:
Amazon is tracked in NPD.

Nintendo Black Friday PR. 3DS sales went up 325% compared to week before SML3D released. Wii had biggest Black Friday ever with 500K just from the Thursday night/Friday sales.
Click to expand...

donny2112 said:
[360] 1500K
[3DS] 500K
[NDS] 800K
[PS3] 650K
[WII] 1150K
Click to expand...

...

Wat.

Edit: That was rude. Sorry. Doing the math, I see where you're coming from. I really hope you're WAY off, though. 3DS selling only 500k this month would be an absolute disaster.
 
B

BurntPork

Banned
donny2112 said:
Yeah, it'd also explain why they went to %s instead of hard numbers when talking about 3DS sales. Just plainly not as impressive in absolute numbers. No DS mention either.
Click to expand...

I'm sticking to my prediction, though. I think it'll turn out that you read too much into them not giving the number and that it'll be at least 900k in the end. If not... Then I guess that does it for 3DS in the west this fiscal year.
 
D

donny2112

Member
BurntPork said:
it'll be at least 900k in the end. If not... Then I guess that does it for 3DS in the west this fiscal year.
Click to expand...

NDS:
Nov-2005 (price cut, Nintendogs available, Mario Kart released) - 369K
Dec-2005 - ~1.1m

Obviously DS wasn't doing real good in the U.S. until the Lite, as shown by the PSP being neck-and-neck with it LTD despite launching 4 months later. (918K for Lite's first November, for reference) Just pointing out that it can still have a biggish December for being this close to launch. Don't expect DS 3m+ Decembers for a few years still, if ever.
 
O

okenny

Banned
[NDS] 567890
[3DS] 678901
[WII] 789012
[PS3] 890123
[360] 2000001


You can mock me if you wish but I have a good feeling about this one...
 
O

okenny

Banned
NateDrake said:
[360] 1300K
[3DS] 1000k
[NDS] 750K
[PS3] 675K
[WII] 1100K
Click to expand...
image.php
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
donny2112 said:
Yeah, it'd also explain why they went to %s instead of hard numbers when talking about 3DS sales. Just plainly not as impressive in absolute numbers. No DS mention either.
Click to expand...

However, they also said that 3DS did in 8 months what DS did in its first twelve.
Since DS obtained to sell 2.37 millions in 12 months, and since 3DS was at almost 1.7, Chris calculated that 3DS must have sold at least more than 680k for the month.
 
B

BurntPork

Banned
baekshi said:
[360] 900k
[3DS] 650k
[NDS] 300k
[PS3] 1300k
[WII] 500k
Click to expand...

Joke post?

EDIT: Okay, I changed my prediction, but some of you are reading too much into Nintendo not giving a 3DS number. It's just impossible that DS outsold 3DS, and if it did, then the 3DS is officially a flop with no chance of recovery.

EDIT 2: Wait. the week BEFORE Mario? Scratch that. 3DS really is hopeless in the west.
 
S

Saiyar

Unconfirmed Member
[360] 1700K
[3DS] 700K
[NDS] 900K
[PS3] 750K
[WII] 1250K

Have Microsoft released any PR for Black Friday sales?
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
BurntPork said:
Joke post?

EDIT: Okay, I changed my prediction, but some of you are reading too much into Nintendo not giving a 3DS number. It's just impossible that DS outsold 3DS, and if it did, then the 3DS is officially a flop with no chance of recovery.

EDIT 2: Wait. the week BEFORE Mario? Scratch that. 3DS really is hopeless in the west.
Click to expand...

"Aaaaaaaaaaaaah, classic Burntpork"
 
D

donny2112

Member
Mpl90 said:
However, they also said that 3DS did in 8 months what DS did in its first twelve.
Since DS obtained to sell 2.37 millions in 12 months, and since 3DS was at almost 1.7, Chris calculated that 3DS must have sold at least more than 680k for the month.
Click to expand...

Reggie has a history of using shipped numbers instead of sell-through. Just FYI. Now when Iwata says something about sales, it's typically been about actual sales tracking, though.

BurntPork said:
It's just impossible that DS outsold 3DS, and if it did, then the 3DS is officially a flop with no chance of recovery.
Click to expand...

Then the 3DS is a BurkPoint "flop with no chance of recovery." :p DS is the established brand. It gets the benefit of the doubt way over the new kid on the block for gift-giving. That may change by next year, though.

BurntPork said:
EDIT 2: Wait. the week BEFORE Mario?
Click to expand...

You just realized that's what it was talking about? Okay. Now the comments make more sense. :)
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
donny2112 said:
Reggie has a history of using shipped numbers instead of sell-through. Just FYI. Now when Iwata says something about sales, it's typically been about actual sales tracking, though.



Then the 3DS is a BurkPoint "flop with no chance of recovery." :p DS is the established brand. It gets the benefit of the doubt way over the new kid on the block for gift-giving. That may change by next year, though.



You just realized that's what it was talking about? Okay. Now the comments make more sense. :)
Click to expand...

Look, I've checked a site where the sales thread has still posts from 2005...sort of an archive. And I've just seen this.

http://multiplayer.it/forum/3773173-post276.html

The numbers we have so far.

DS
Japan - 3,528,392 (through November 6)
US - 2,376,895 (through October)
Europe - 1,600,000 (early November or end of October, I don't know)
Canada - 527,000 (through October)
Total - 8,032,287

And these are REAL sales. So, Reggie was talking about actual sales to customers, not shipping.
And, however, why should he make a comparison through hardware with only units shipped :p

EDIT: ...And however for these occasions they've always showed real datas, not shipment ones.
 
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