In at least one case, I believe Reggie has also used North American shipped numbers but referred to them as American sales (or something), which was even more confusing.
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November 2011 NPD Predictions - closes December 5
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
MS released some numbers:
http://majornelson.com/2011/11/29/xbox-360-records-the-biggest-week-in-xbox-history/
These are manufacturer estimates, not the official NPD results. However, everyone talks ahead of the data release to make sure that things are pretty much in sync.
Edit: To be perfectly clear, there is no correct result for sales. But the marketplace generally takes the NPD Group's estimates as the best choice. Doesn't mean they're perfect, just an agreed-upon and generally reliable standard.
In at least one case, I believe Reggie has also used North American shipped numbers but referred to them as American sales (or something), which was even more confusing.
This is not the case, however.
I even checked and reported in the other page: he said the truth about what DS sold in its first 12 months. So, the Chris extrapolation is reliable.
MatthewB92
Member
[360] 1500k
[3DS] 800k
[NDS] 750k
[PS3] 800k
[WII]1100k
[3DS] 800k
[NDS] 750k
[PS3] 800k
[WII]1100k
I wasn't expressing doubt about Reggie on this. I was cautioning that his use of figures can be dodgy in general, and mentioning something in addition to what donny2112 had said.
GBA outsold DS in USA for 19 straight months all the way from DS release until the DS Lite was released.
Note though that DS has two holiday seasons in that chart it while 3DS has none. DS had an OK holiday season during it's 2004 launch but sold even worse in early 2005 than 3DS did in early 2011.
I've posted the chart only for the DS total in the first 12 months, since it seems Reggie, in the past, used shipment numbers as sales to customers: and the graph indicates the 2.37 total for the first 12 months of DS as the real thing.
...Ah, yes. It's something separates from his speech XD He only talks about how 3DS surpassed in 8 months what DS did in 12.
So, no doubts anymore about the numbers (especially since they correspond to what the graph say XD )
farscape82
Member
[360] 1560K
[3DS] 900k
[NDS] 610K
[PS3] 630K
[WII] 1310K
[3DS] 900k
[NDS] 610K
[PS3] 630K
[WII] 1310K
The 3DS was selling at damn near clearance prices everywhere, and it got a big game. For its sales to still be low after that, the market just doesn't want it. I really hate it, but I'm forced to resign to the fact that Apple won again. I really want to punch something.
...... Wait a second. Something's weird about that Nintendo "PR". Did sales increase by 325%, were they 3.25x what it sold in that first week? That part is vauge, and it completely changes to context of the PR if that's the case.
I haven't even seen the Reggie quote, just Chris1964's analysis of it. However my impression of the quote was that it said 3DS has sold more in the U.S. in 8 months than the DS did in 12 months. Thus, it would've never mentioned 2.37m sold for DS in 12 months. That would've been from Chris1964 assuming that Reggie was talking about real sales.
Predict what you want. Reggie has not proven to be a good source of actual sales data in the past, so if he is a good source now, it'll be a change from his past behavior.
Well, you can make us a favor: punch yourself.
Fantastical
Death Prophet
Blah. This is unrelated to the thread.
I haven't even seen the Reggie quote, just Chris1964's analysis of it. However my impression of the quote was that it said 3DS has sold more in the U.S. in 8 months than the DS did in 12 months. Thus, it would've never mentioned 2.37m sold for DS in 12 months. That would've been from Chris1964 assuming that Reggie was talking about real sales.
Predict what you want. Reggie has not proven to be a good source of actual sales data in the past, so if he is a good source now, it'll be a change from his past behavior.
But that phrase about the sales cannot refers to anything else than actual sales to customers, come on...at least this time.
Hiro_Kunimi_80
Member
[360] 1500K
[3DS] 750K
[NDS] 600K
[PS3] 750K
[WII] 1000K
[3DS] 750K
[NDS] 600K
[PS3] 750K
[WII] 1000K
Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic Sales-Age blunders - The most famous of which is "Never use VGC numbers" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never trust company PR to use sales instead of shipped when bragging rights are on the line"! Ha ha ha ha ...
Edit:
Finally read the actual PR. It's not clear, but my assumption was that it increased by 325% which would be a factor of 4.25 x <week before SML3D sales>. It rose 49% week of SML3D sales, which means it rose 185% (2.85 factor) from Mario 3D's release to Black Friday week. Confusing enough?
Oh, and Reggie just says that 8 months of 3DS > 12 months of DS. The article throws in 2.37m for DS in 12 months separate from Reggie's quote.
In this case, I'm upset because Apple is the one company I hate so much that something bad happening to them would make me euphoric.
Anyway, I added something to that last post. If it's wrong, please don't prove it wrong. I really want to cling to that last of hope that there was a misunderstanding, Reggie actually said that the sales increased by 325% (as in +325% rather than x325%), he wasn't talking about shipped numbers and sales actually quadrupled.
Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic Sales-Age blunders - The most famous of which is "Never use VGC numbers" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never trust company PR to use sales instead of shipped when bragging rights are on the line"! Ha ha ha ha ...
Mmh, let's see. In the article, he refers to 3D Land, to Zelda and to the 3DS increases through the weeks as actual sales, and these are surely actual sales (especially on the software front).
Why to believe that, after these, he shifts suddenly and refers to shipments? I know he's a PR, and Reggie has said some """strange" things about games in the past (Conduit the Wii's Halo will be always inmy mind)...but he cannot lie so much about numbers. He can use them to make them look "better", but he can't lie.
Another thing: I think in the article the picture is wrong: Reggie said sales tripled in the BF week, not that they increased by 325%
THE ARTICLE GOT IT WRONG! IT INCREASED THAT MUCH! I WANT TO BELIEVE!
BELIEEEEEEEEEEVE
bigtroyjon
Member
Why can't he lie? PR people lie and twist words and numbers all the time to make things look better than they are.
bigtroyjon
Member
He is entitled to his opinion, doesn't make it some kind of iron clad fact like you are claiming.
No, I'm on to something. I know I'm right. Reggie saying something like "3DS sales multiplied by 325%" just seems awkward. It increased by 325%, which would likely put it around 300k, which isn't bad, but isn't good enough to brag about either. It makes perfect sense. Admit it.
Because he's Reggie. He's fooled us already a few times talking about "sales" for games in the U.S. that were way less than actual NPD numbers once those came out, meaning that he must've been referring to retailer shipments.
If he's referring to shipments, he didn't lie. If anything, it'd be easier for him to refer to shipment comparisons than to take NPD for DS for 12 months and compare to NPD for 3DS for 7 months and then add internal tracking numbers for the 8th month. The internal tracking numbers provided the week-to-week sales, which is where those come from. The simplest longer-term comparison for him to make before November's NPD release is to use shipments for both rather than to try to mix NPD and internal tracking numbers.
http://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/nintendo-brags-about-record-wii-3ds-black-friday-sales/
This means that 3DS sold at least 600k (or was it 700k?) for the first three weeks of November, meaning that I was right about it being +325%, not x325%.
I WAS RIGHT!
*edit* Should have read the earlier posts first...
This means that 3DS sold at least 600k (or was it 700k?) for the first three weeks of November, meaning that I was right about it being +325%, not x325%.
I WAS RIGHT!
*edit* Should have read the earlier posts first...
It's the exact same quote we were already discussing. Nothing new was added.
Week 1 (October 30-November 5): ? (Guess 70K based off of October's weekly average)
Week 2 (November 6-12): 1x (Guess x is 70K based off of October's weekly average and assuming steady sales)
Week 3 (November 13-19): 1.49x (SM3DL launch week had 49% increase)
Week 4 (November 20-26): 4.25x (325% increase over Week 2)
November sales = 6.74x + Week 1
Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic Sales-Age blunders - The most famous of which is "Never use VGC numbers" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never trust company PR to use sales instead of shipped when bragging rights are on the line"! Ha ha ha ha ...
lolz. this made my day.
It's the exact same quote we were already discussing. Nothing new was added.
Week 1 (October 30-November 5): ? (Guess 70K based off of October's weekly average)
Week 2 (November 6-12): 1x (Guess x is 70K based off of October's weekly average and assuming steady sales)
Week 3 (November 13-19): 1.49x (SM3DL launch week had 49% increase)
Week 4 (November 20-26): 4.25x (325% increase over Week 2)
November sales = 6.74x + Week 1
lol, I just self-owned myself three-times over. Last three weeks.
Okay, I need to redo the math in that case and change my prediction slightly, since I mistakenly assumed that this week counts. Last time, I promise, but you're free to disqualify me or whatever.
I don't read lol. And sorry for........ being me earlier. I have my reasons.Dedication Through Light
Member
I guess X360 is the big one this month, no way Wii will sell more than X360.
I really dont see 3DS outselling DS, with all the bundles of DS family of systems, and its library, and the fact that it is still popular among kids, it has to still be a huge handheld most people still want.
with their current price difference, it isn't that easy. for like very few extra bucks, you get a system that is way superior to its predecessor. unless nintendo's advertising is really bad, there's no reason for the 3DS to sell less than the DS now.
But shouldn't the internal tracking be near the NPD numbers IIRC?
I'd like to see some examples of what are you saying, about Reggie: now I'm curious.
EDIT: Moreover, the overdoing the first DS full year is their PR angle.
NINTENDO 3DS POISED TO SURPASS FIRST-YEAR SALES OF NINTENDO DS
In its eighth month on the market, the Nintendo 3DS™ system crossed 1.65 million units sold in the U.S., according to the NPD Group, which tracks video game sales in the United States. This milestone puts the platform on track to surpass the first-year total of Nintendo DS™, the best-selling game platform in U.S. history.
The Nintendo DS system sold 2.37 million units in its first 12 months (November 2004-October 2005), with approximately 50 percent of those sales occurring in the holiday time frame. With its first holiday season and the launches of the Super Mario 3D Land™ and Mario Kart™ 7 games on the horizon, Nintendo 3DS is poised to eclipse that number and establish a new benchmark for hand-held gaming launches in the United States.
"With a massive lineup of software on the way and the first-year sales record of Nintendo DS in its sights, Nintendo 3DS enters its first holiday season with a full head of steam," said Scott Moffitt, Nintendo of America's executive vice president of Sales & Marketing.
Other Nintendo news from the month includes:
• Nintendo sold more than 675,000 combined hardware units in October. This includes more than 250,000 units of Nintendo 3DS, nearly 250,000 Wii™ systems and nearly 180,000 units of the Nintendo DS family of systems.
• For the year, Nintendo has sold a combined 7 million hardware units and more than 55 million units of software have been sold for Nintendo platforms. Both of these numbers should increase with the Nov. 20 launch of The Legend of Zelda™: Skyward Sword for Wii.
• Both Wii, up 8 percent year over year, and Nintendo DS, up 23 percent over the previous month, demonstrated strong momentum heading into their respective sixth and eighth holiday seasons. In total, the two platforms have sold more than 87 million combined hardware units and more than 540 million combined units of software in the United States.
This is the PR Release from last month. I don't think they'd switch suddenly from talking about actual sales to shipment like this when they already referred to actual sales in the past AND it's like their PR spin. Simply this, added to the fact that those 3D Land mean also possibly very good sales of the bundle.
Elite Beat Agents and Metroid: Other M. jvm also mentioned one where he used NA shipments for something.
If it sells > 700K in the month, he was probably talking about sales. If it doesn't, he was talking about something else. If it is sales, that'd be a good change for Reggie, but it'd still take another couple of examples to actually trust Reggie's "sales" speak for me personally. Either way, we'll see in about a week.
Okay, now Reggie's come out and explicitly said that 3DS passed DS's 2.37m in 8 months, so now we know 3DS sold around 700K in November by Nintendo's internal tracking.
http://techland.time.com/2011/11/30...uture-of-handhelds-and-wiis-big-holiday-push/
Edit:
That'd put Black Friday week at almost 400K for 3DS.
http://techland.time.com/2011/11/30...uture-of-handhelds-and-wiis-big-holiday-push/
Edit:
That'd put Black Friday week at almost 400K for 3DS.
Okay, now Reggie's come out and explicitly said that 3DS passed DS's 2.37m in 8 months, so now we know 3DS sold around 700K in November by Nintendo's internal tracking.
http://techland.time.com/2011/11/30...uture-of-handhelds-and-wiis-big-holiday-push/
Edit:
That'd put Black Friday week at almost 400K for 3DS.
And in the end...I won. Who's the fool, now?
j/k
Who's the fool, now?
j/k
You trusted Reggie. It worked out for you this time. Pity those who trusted in him before, and it didn't turn out so well ...
Psychotext
Member
Am I missing something, or has (nearly) everyone put 1.5m for the 360? Is there some secret leaked info out there or are people doing some sort of multiplication from last month to get there?
That aside, seems to be very few people predicting lately.
That aside, seems to be very few people predicting lately.
Am I missing something, or has (nearly) everyone put 1.5m for the 360? Is there some secret leaked info out there or are people doing some sort of multiplication from last month to get there?
That aside, seems to be very few people predicting lately.
The 360 sold nearly a million during black friday week. Add the rest of the month and 1.5 million is probably reachable.
Psychotext
Member
It's more than reachable, it's easily achievable... but that's not my point, almost everyone has the same number, or at least within 50k. Just stuck out a bit..