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[Indyana]

Are these confirmed numbers or only what Michael Pachter thinks?

Pachter, from the article:

However, Pachter doesn't have the final word on monthly game sales; NPD does. And that firm is expected to make its data available after markets close on Thursday.

 

[CaptainABAB]

Posted yet?

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-5...-wii-by-400000-units-in-november-analyst-says

Here is his track record for the past two months...

Pachter predictions for October 2011:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-5...-down-in-october-analyst/?tag=mncol;cnetRiver

Wii 180K
3DS 250K
360 350K
PS3 265K

NPD Results:

Wii <250K
3DS >250K
360 393K
PS3 ~245K

Pachter predictions for September 2011:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-2...y-double-that-of-wiis-analyst-says/?tag=mncol

Wii 190K
3DS 225K
NDS 185K
360 360K
PS3 260K

NPD Results:

Wii 240K
3DS 260K
NDS 145K
360 438K
PS3 373K

 

[[Nintex]]

PS3 260K

NPD Results:

PS3 373K

Hahahahah the one time he lowballs his PS3 prediction he's wrong lol

 

[Strike]

[360] 1500k
[3DS] 620k
[NDS] 410k
[PS3] 750k
[WII] 950k

 

[NeoUltima]

[360] 1450K
[3DS] 810K
[NDS] 620K
[PS3] 860K
[WII] 1175K

 

[BurntPork]

Posted yet?

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-5...-wii-by-400000-units-in-november-analyst-says

Weird how DS and 3DS aren't even mentioned...

 

[Dedication Through Light]

[360] 1470K
[3DS] 800K
[NDS] 750K
[PS3] 660K
[WII] 1200K

Ugh this month is so hard.

Nooooooo

Nintendo sold more than 2 million combined hardware units in November. This includes more than 860,000 Wii systems, more than 795,000 Nintendo 3DS units and more than 350,000 units of the Nintendo DS family of systems.

Nintendo killed all but my 3ds predictions...

 

[Thoraxes]

[360] 1200K
[3DS] 872K
[NDS] 1000K
[PS3] 764K
[WII] 897K

At least I was less than 40k on Wii and less than 13k on 3DS. My NDS one was waaayyyyyyyy off though.

I'm probably going to be dead wrong on the 360.

Also, at the rate it still sells at, MS really has no reason to release a new console so soon at all. They're making a fuckton of money at their current price points.

 

[Nemo]

Jesus, NDS fucked up hard on my preds

 

[noobie]

[360] 2250k
[3DS] 795k
[NDS] 475k
[PS3] 625k
[WII] 995k

Will i be getting -100 points for hitting a jackpot on 3DS numbers.

 

[jvm]

[360] 1520K
[WII] 1040K
[NDS] 730K
[3DS] 700K
[PS3] 640K

Well, that was a right crap set of guesses.

NDS collapse is interesting.

 

[jamesinclair]

Well, that was a right crap set of guesses.

NDS collapse is interesting.

Interesting? Its shocking.

I guess Nintendo didnt price low enough + people are still confused about the DS/3DS family and all the SKUs

Should be:

$149 3DS
$$119 DSi XL
$89 DSi

 

[BurntPork]

Interesting? Its shocking.

I guess Nintendo didnt price low enough + people are still confused about the DS/3DS family and all the SKUs

Should be:

$149 3DS
$$119 DSi XL
$89 DSi

That would cause 3DS to sell much less with a bigger loss.

You're close, though. The DS collapse is due to the death of the DS Lite.

 

[Road]

I think we should just cancel this month...

 

[Megadragon15]

I think we should just cancel this month...

360 wont probably pass 1m and definitely wont do 1.5m, there was no Kinect launch and price hasnt changed.

Cancel this month? At least this thread gave us this gem from KKRT00.

 

[donny2112]

NeoGAF November 2011 NPD Prediction Results

Units

1. Ydahs - 523,000
2. Fantastical - 548,000
3. Elios83 - 585,000
4. Digital-Hero - 595,000
4. mattchuuu - 595,000
6. acm2000 - 602,748
7. BLaZiN PRopHeT - 645,000
7. Megadragon15 - 645,000
9. Mpl90 - 665,000
10. Strike - 675,000
11. tonitoni - 695,000
11. CrankyKong - 695,000
13. confuziz - 710,000
14. okenny - 714,855
15. Kambing - 720,000
16. doicare - 735,000
17. pseudocaesar - 745,000
17. Dragon - 745,000
17. gkryhewy - 745,000
20. Orgen - 747,000
21. SonicX_Zero - 755,000
22. allan-bh - 785,000
22. Hiro_Kunimi_80 - 785,000
24. GAF_Agg - 789,300
25. Hammer24 - 792,000
26. siyrobbo - 795,000
27. Teetris - 805,000
28. Averon - 825,000
29. SuperMalo - 835,000
30. seattle6418 - 845,000
30. besiktas1 - 845,000
32. blackMamba1187 - 858,000
33. waicol - 870,000
34. Rat Salad - 883,207
35. rayner - 885,000
35. Goldmund - 885,000
35. Jonsoncao - 885,000
35. Opus Angelorum - 885,000
39. NeoUltima - 890,000
40. pitseleh - 905,000
41. hatchx - 910,000
42. rostocker - 926,000
43. Brakara - 945,000
43. MatthewB92 - 945,000
45. MesserWolf - 985,000
45. Zero-Crescent - 985,000
45. kefka2030 - 985,000
45. archnemesis - 985,000
49. Road - 1,008,000
50. Indyana - 1,009,000
51. Pachter - 1,030,000
52. starship - 1,045,000
53. Jesse2040 - 1,052,000
54. noobie - 1,085,000
55. botticus - 1,095,000
55. jvm - 1,095,000
57. NateDrake - 1,170,000
58. Saiyar - 1,185,000
58. donny2112 - 1,185,000
60. Osuwari - 1,195,000
60. skedar897 - 1,195,000
62. Jokeropia - 1,196,000
63. jamesinclair - 1,196,106
64. Dedication Through Light - 1,215,000
65. farscape82 - 1,225,000
66. Sindou_Hikaru20 - 1,235,000
66. BurntPork - 1,235,000
68. Karak - 1,245,000
69. LOCK - 1,260,000
70. uchihasasuke - 1,355,000
71. Truth101 - 1,395,000
72. Thoraxes - 1,400,000
73. Kenka - 1,468,000
74. andy_lhc - 1,555,000
75. Leon S. Kennedy - 1,745,000
76. baekshi - 1,755,000
77. Gadfly - 1,924,999


Points

     November 2011               Overall 2011 (Top 9/11 months)
1.   Fantastical        99.73    Elios83             793.92
2.   Ydahs              99.58    Zero-Crescent       792.22
3.   Digital-Hero       99.08    Pachter             778.97
4.   BLaZiN PRopHeT     95.76    confuziz            770.46
5.   Elios83            94.68    NeoUltima           765.93
6.   mattchuuu          92.31    Road                764.88
7.   okenny             89.23    doicare             763.8
8.   Mpl90              86.96    archnemesis         753.2
9.   Strike             85.39    pitseleh            751.95
10.  Megadragon15       85.21    donny2112           750.66
11.  tonitoni           84.43    Strike              740.05
12.  hatchx             83.8     BLaZiN PRopHeT      739.11
13.  Averon             82.05    Ydahs               738.64
14.  pseudocaesar       82.04    Indyana             737.32
15.  Rat Salad          81.15    Hiro_Kunimi_80      735.2
16.  acm2000            79.81    Teetris             729.54
17.  Dragon             79.57    Jesse2040           728.35
18.  CrankyKong         79.5     jvm                 722.43
19.  waicol             79.5     rostocker           719.09
20.  Kambing            79.37    SuperBanjo          718.14
21.  Orgen              79.25    Megadragon15        717.19
22.  confuziz           78.6     rayner              716.61
23.  gkryhewy           77.46    Saiyar              713.71
24.  noobie             77.14    Orgen               705.79
25.  Opus Angelorum     76.6     botticus            704.71
26.  doicare            76.33    Brakara             702.75
27.  Goldmund           75.64    Goldmund            700.79
28.  Hiro_Kunimi_80     75.64    Jonsoncao           700
29.  allan-bh           74.97    skedar897           693.21
30.  rostocker          74.7     Jokeropia           689.91
31.  SuperMalo          74.53    Dedication Through L689.46
32.  Hammer24           74.46    andy_lhc            683.5
33.  pitseleh           74.2     SonicX_Zero         676.22
34.  siyrobbo           74.09    Osuwari             675.88
35.  besiktas1          74       Hammer24            662.38
36.  NeoUltima          73.04    siyrobbo            646.24
37.  MesserWolf         72.96    starship            642.62
38.  rayner             72.84    allan-bh            636.38
39.  SonicX_Zero        72.67    uchihasasuke        590.09
40.  Teetris            72.49    NateDrake           563.04
41.  Jonsoncao          72.47    ItWasMeantToBe19    518.65
42.  Brakara            72.2     perfectchaos007     499.58
43.  Zero-Crescent      71.59    noobie              497.53
44.  skedar897          71.35    tonitoni            485.32
45.  Road               71.27    kefka2030           424.17
46.  seattle6418        70.44    jamesinclair        389.35
47.  blackMamba1187     70.19    Credo               337.44
48.  kefka2030          70.04    Thoraxes            336.27
49.  MatthewB92         69.72    bakemono            335.59
50.  Truth101           69.17    Gadfly              329.85

Congratulations to Ydahs for Units and Fantastical for Points!

Overall for the year has a new person in the lead and boy is it close. :lol

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

What I gather here is that a lot of GAF hath no faith in the PS3.

 

[GavinGT]

What I gather here is that a lot of GAF hath no faith in the PS3.

There were as many who underestimated 360 sales by 2-300k as those who underestimated PS3 sales by 1-200k.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

As many people underestimated 360 sales by 2-300k as did underestimate PS3 sales by 1-200k.

Indeed but I thought for the 360 predictions it seemed people were trying to be conservative while still expecting very high whereas with their PS3 predictions it seemed like people were being kind of generous, and still under-predicted.

Just how I sees it, or interpreted it, from some of the comments.

 

[Zero-Crescent]

Dang, looks like it really is going to come down to the last month.

Even though I increased my 360 prediction, it still came up short, as that and the NDS made up the majority of my difference. I really didn't expect the NDS to lose that much YoY.

 

[BurntPork]

Fucking Nintendo fucking fails fucking screwed me fucking over fucking

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Fucking Nintendo fucking fails fucking screwed me fucking over fucking

Good to see you're handling it well.

 

[Megadragon15]

Results are fast this month.

 

[Madao]

this month murdered me completely.

 

[Hammer24]

Damn, seeing where I erred makes me want to immediately predict the next month...
And no JVM four-pager to look forward too :`(

 

[Elios83]

OMG me first for the year? :O :O

 

[Ydahs]

NeoGAF November 2011 NPD Prediction Results

Units

1. Ydahs - 523,000

After all these years of predicting, I finally finished first for a month.

My life is now complete.

 

[Gadfly]

After all these years of predicting, I finally finished first for a month.

My life is now complete.

And I finished last as usual.
I wonder if anybody got PS3 as close as I did:

[PS3] 890000

 

[Road]

NeoGAF November 2011 NPD Prediction Results

     November 2011               Overall 2011 ([U]Top 9/11 months[/U])
1.   Fantastical        99.73    Elios83             793.92
2.   Ydahs              99.58    Zero-Crescent       792.22
3.   Digital-Hero       99.08    Pachter             778.97
4.   BLaZiN PRopHeT     95.76    confuziz            770.46
5.   Elios83            94.68    NeoUltima           765.93
6.   mattchuuu          92.31    Road                764.88
7.   okenny             89.23    doicare             763.8
8.   Mpl90              86.96    archnemesis         753.2
9.   Strike             85.39    pitseleh            751.95
10.  Megadragon15       85.21    donny2112           750.66

This means I can still write this month off? Because this was probably my worst month ever.

No, just re-read the rules. It's 10/12. I guess I'll just have to look harder at my crystal ball next month. =P

 

[KKRT00]

Cancel this month? At least this thread gave us this gem from KKRT00.

I dont live in US and dont understand Black Friday ;P

 

[doicare]

Cool, another decent month.

It's just a shame i've been seriously ill for most of this year and i missed two months worth of predictions, with those i would have been up to 3rd for the year.

 

[Dedication Through Light]

Darn I was kicked out the top 30. If this continues next year, hopefully I do better, new consoles are so much easier to consistently predict than old ones, based on 3DS progress...

 

[andy_lhc]

Darn I was kicked out the top 30. If this continues next year, hopefully I do better, new consoles are so much easier to consistently predict than old ones, based on 3DS progress...

And I am just 1 spot below you. This month's sales has wrecked my position.

 

[acm2000]

6th place for my first ever attempt? woop

 

[orion434]

I got hammered all around this month. Well I'm still at rank 22 for the year.

 

[Nemo]

Aww man! Was hoping to get higher in rankings

 

[Fantastical]

Holy shit! The first time I've done this in years, and I just remembered I did it. Yay!

 

[Jonsoncao]

December prediction thread will be up in?

 

[donny2112]

December prediction thread will be up in?

Should be Saturday. End of December period is Saturday (Dec. 31).

 

[bigtroyjon]

Should be Saturday. End of December period is Saturday (Dec. 31).

Wow, so 2012 will actually cover 2012?(until that last week of course) When was the last time that happened, must be 6-7 years ago.

Do we get one of those extra 5 week months next year?

 

[jvm]

Wow, so 2012 will actually cover 2012?(until that last week of course) When was the last time that happened, must be 6-7 years ago.

Do we get one of those extra 5 week months next year?

I think these are right end of year dates:

December 2006: Ended 30 December 2006
December 2007: Ended 5 January 2008
December 2008: Ended 3 January 2009
December 2009: Ended 2 January 2010
December 2010: Ended 1 January 2011
December 2011: Ends 31 December 2011
December 2012: Could end 29 December 2012

Note: January 2007 had five weeks (i.e. a leap week). I'm assuming 2012 will not have a leap week. I asked NPD a few months ago about this, and got no response.

 

[donny2112]

Note: January 2007 had five weeks (i.e. a leap week). I'm assuming 2012 will not have a leap week. I asked NPD a few months ago about this, and got no response.

Thanks for posting the year-end dates for reference. From that, either 2012 or 2013 will probably have a leap week. Since the leap week would be before the Leap Day for 2012, 2013 seems more likely. Good to know to expect it in the next couple of years, though.