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December 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 13

D

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, January 13th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: December 1, 2013-January 4, 2014 (5 weeks, November was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, January 16th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:
Note: PSV will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. PSV is not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PS4]
[PSV]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[PS4] 1000K       [PS4] 1 million (or 1m)
[PS4] 1,000,000   [PS4] 1.000.000
[PS4] 1000000     [PS4] - 1000000


Potential hardware impacting events in December:
Christmas and sales
PS4/XB1 supply

November's Results - thanks to various angles
donny2112 said:
Used for Predictions:
PS4 - 1138K
XB1 - 909K
3DS - 770K
360 - 647K
PS3 - 424K
WIU - 223K
PSV - 70K
Click to expand...

November 2012 NPD thread
December 2012 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
prag16

prag16

Banned
Some high PS4bone predictions. Dropoff from pent up launch demand combined with lack of stock in some cases I think could lead to lower numbers. That may turn out to be 100% incorrect.
 
P

Pound_lb003

Member
Are those November PS4 numbers real then?

Used for Predictions:
[PS4] - 750k
[XB1] - 725k
[3DS] - 1200K
[360] - 675K
[PS3] - 445K
[WIU] - 215K
[PSV] - 90K
 
K

kswiston

Member
You guys predicting under 1M for 3DS are crazy. It's December for a Nintendo handheld.

EDIT:

To help people out, 3DS was 1.25M last December and 1.6M the year before.
 
B

beast786

Member
prag16 said:
Some high PS4bone predictions. Dropoff from pent up launch demand combined with lack of stock in some cases I think could lead to lower numbers. That may turn out to be 100% incorrect.
Click to expand...

XB1 was pretty much available throughout December, and US is it's strongest market. hence my high prediction. Amazon had XB1 available pretty much 24/7 week or two before Christmas until now. While ps4 was rarely ever on stock and US was sony worst market.
 
K

kswiston

Member
beast786 said:
XB1 was pretty much available throughout December, and US is it's strongest market. hence my high prediction. Amazon had XB1 available pretty much 24/7 week or two before Christmas until now. While ps4 was rarely ever on stock and US was sony worst market.
Click to expand...

US was sony's best market for two generations before that. Also, Japan was PS3's worst market.

Stock availability is going to be the largest factor this December, but I wouldn't put too much weight on console standings from last generation. We've seen fortunes wax and wane several times.
 
D

donny2112

Member
kswiston said:
To help people out, 3DS was 1.25M last December and 1.6M the year before.
Click to expand...

3DS had some crazy deals in December 2011. December 2012 was much lacking, in comparison. This year had some good deals on 3DSXL, but not sure if the impact was any better than 2012, since 2DS is out.
 
I

I-hate-u

Member
Can I change my 3DS prediction? make it higher lol? It is indeed too low which is ironic for me b/c I got a 3DS this past December lol.
 
K

kswiston

Member
donny2112 said:
3DS had some crazy deals in December 2011. December 2012 was much lacking, in comparison. This year had some good deals on 3DSXL, but not sure if the impact was any better than 2012, since 2DS is out.
Click to expand...

My estimate is going to be between the two years. Probably 1400k or so. 2DS and Pokemon will put this year above last year in my mind, but I'm not sure if they will top MK7 launching. I have no clue what I am going to write down for the next gen twins, or I would have posted my set of predictions already :p

I-hate-u said:
Can I change my 3DS prediction? make it higher lol? It is indeed too low which is ironic for me b/c I got a 3DS this past December lol.
Click to expand...

We can edit before the deadline.
 
S

sjagolinzer

Member
[360] 600K
[3DS] 950K
[PS3] 550K
[PS4] 1450K
[PSV] 120K
[WIU] 200K
[XB1] 1100K

gotta edit those ps4 numbers after that 4.2 mil announcement...
 
James Sawyer Ford

James Sawyer Ford

Member
Thuway tweeted that in one week in December PS4 sold 250K in the US, and that wasn't even the busiest week, as the one right before Christmas was a massive shipment.

I see PS4 at least matching or getting close to last month's numbers.

In the UK, we know that the PS4 sold slightly more in December as it did in November, just to give some idea of stock allocations.
 
N

NateDrake

Member
James Sawyer Ford said:
Thuway tweeted that in one week in December PS4 sold 250K in the US, and that wasn't even the busiest week, as the one right before Christmas was a massive shipment.

I see PS4 at least matching or getting close to last month's numbers.

In the UK, we know that the PS4 sold slightly more in December as it did in November, just to give some idea of stock allocations.
Click to expand...

I don't think Sony shipped 1 million units to N. America in Dec.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Total guesses about PS4 and Xbox One. No idea how much either supplied, just know that Xbox One was readily available during the month. I think I set 1.3 million for Xbox One in December for the break point between concerned / not concerned in another thread, but I don't know if I can go that high with my prediction.

Edit 1: Adjusting PS4 expections up from 700K.

[360] 800K
[3DS] 1100K
[PS3] 530K
[PS4] 1000K
[PSV] 100K
[WIU] 270K
[XB1] 1000K
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Kimawolf said:
[360] 400k
[3DS] 1100000k
[PS3] 350k
[PS4] 367k
[PSV] 100k
[WIU] 500k
[XB1] 800k
Click to expand...

Nintendo undoomed for all eternity confirmed
:p

....wait even assuming that's supposed to be 1100k, all the predictions for any 8th gen stuff is probably way off

edit: wait what's with some people also predicting a Wii U drop from November
 
statham

statham

Member
this will be a unpredictable month, XB1 could beat PS4, PS4 could beat XB1, 360 could beat both, wiiU could beat PS3, 3DS could beat all of them. Maybe even Vita does well because of PS4. This month could go anyway, alot of predictions will be off. I think it'll be XB1>PS4>>3DS>360>>WiiU>PS3>>>Vita
 
T

TheRealTalker

Banned
[PS4] 750K
[XB1] 700K
[3DS] 970K
[360] 550K
[WIIU] 337K
[PS3] 233K
[PSV] 60K

Yes I see a big dip for last gen... I am not CRAZY

Edit: Adjusted :p and fixed to correct format

Edit 2: A lot of XB1 > PS4... I say it will be the other way around but not by a major margin
January for me is what will be truly interesting for those two consoles
 
T

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
I have no idea. So why not:

[XB1] 500K
[PS4] 600K
[3DS] 356K
[360] 360K
[PS3] 563K
[WIU] 123K
[PSV] 99K
 
C

caustictoast

Neo Member
I keep seeing predictions of the XB1 beating the ps4 and I'm thinking 'yall are crazy' then I realized that I have seen 1 PS4 in any store (ever) and a whole bunch of XB1. Then I think I'm crazy. The ps4 sold as many as Sony could make, unlike the Xbox one, but the Xbox one also wasn't supply constrained. Unless it had WiiU status drop in sales it probably won by a bit
 
M

MasterSheen

Member
Alright, let's do this

[360] 765k
[3DS] 1425k
[PS3] 454k
[PS4] 888k
[PSV] 123k
[WIU] 456k
[XB1] 999k

Mixing it up a bit, really have no idea how the results will end up.
 
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