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December 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 13

E

Elios83

Member
I'm waiting for potential PR announcements during CES before making my predictions.
The PS4/XB1 stock/demand situation is too unpredictable.
Being supply constrained doesn't automatically mean low sales, just like we have seen for the Wii in the past generation, if Sony didn't have enough units there would be no way to sell over 500k units just in the UK in a single month. We can only tell that so far demand has been higher than supply.
At the same time having lots of consoles on schelves says nothing about sales except that availability has surpassed demand.
 
A

Apophis2036

Banned
Aquamarine said:
I find it strange that roughly a third of predictions have the Wii U underperforming MOM (lower than 223K) in its 2nd December. Post-launch, every Wii, PS3, and 360 year had December above November.

And, December is a 5-week month compared to November's 4 weeks. Throughout December I've seen loads of Wii U ads (I live in the USA)...Nintendo has invested a significant amount of money into marketing this time around. That's a phenomenon I haven't seen in quite a while.

I don't picture the console doing significantly better, but I feel that a prediction lower than 223K is a bit too low for my expectations.
Click to expand...

I have went for 200k personally and the main reasons are a combination of price point ($299 is still too expensive for families / casuals to bite in significant numbers imo), peoples kids seeing the PS4/Xbone hype and telling their parents they want one even if it meant waiting until after Xmas, competition from their own 3DS / 2DS consoles / games and last but not least a very weak exclusive software line up (DKC being delayed until Feb).

You make a great point about it being a five week month though, if I had known this I would have said 250k instead of 200k. I don't know if I'm allowed to edit my prediction ?.

I think if 3DS does over 1 million sales and WiiU is around last months total, Nintendo will start to realise that the vast number of people who want to experience their franchises simply do so on the cheaper console.

Interesting note about the increased WiiU advertising in America, from a UK perspective it's non existent, I saw one NSMB U Bundle and one Mario 3D World advert in the whole of December here...
 
A

Admiral Bone to Pick

Banned
Apophis2036 said:
I have went for 200k personally and the main reasons are a combination of price point ($299 is still too expensive for families / casuals to bite in significant numbers imo), peoples kids seeing the PS4/Xbone hype and telling their parents they want one even if it meant waiting until after Xmas, competition from their own 3DS / 2DS consoles / games and last but not least a very weak exclusive software line up (DKC being delayed until Feb).

You make a great point about it being a five week month though, if I had known this I would have said 250k instead of 200k. I don't know if I'm allowed to edit my prediction ?.

I think if 3DS does over 1 million sales and WiiU is around last months total, Nintendo will start to realise that the vast number of people who want to experience their franchises simply do so on the cheaper console.

Interesting note about the increased WiiU advertising in America, from a UK perspective it's non existent, I saw one NSMB U Bundle and one Mario 3D World advert in the whole of December here...
Click to expand...

I think claiming that the Wii U is selling poorly because people can get the same experience on the 3DS is rather naive. The Gamecube didn't sell poorly because people would rather play Mario games on the GBA. But the system did have a poor brand image, lower third party support, and a lack of compelling exclusives for the general market. The Wii U is facing the same issues. The Wii U is selling poorly because it's just not compelling as a home console. The 3DS doesn't factor much into it.
 
C

Chocolate & Vanilla

Fuck Strawberry
This month is a toughy.

[XB1] 715K
[PS4] 910K
[3DS] 1300K
[360] 800K
[PS3] 600K
[WIU] 425K

And let the resurrection commence with a whopping...

...wait for it...


[PSV] 202K
 
I

IAmRandom31

Banned
[PS4] 930K
[X1] 875K
[WiiU] 750K
[3DS] 1100K
[Vita] 120K
[PS3] 630K
[360] 900K

Lowering my next-gen, 360 numbers. Think we may be overestimating the number of units sold in December by ... alot possibly. I mean didn't someone at Sony say it took them months to gather the million for US launch? Perhaps they were just playing with the competition like they seem to enjoy doing with public statements. .. but I dunno.

The X1 may of been available throughout the month, but it is not like each store had hundreds of units all the time. Seemed to be a real small amount.

Perhaps if ... certain places are correct, then maybe 200k a week sold? So 800K for X1. Maybe something close to that for Sony. I would actually be shocked if Sony was able to send 1,000,000 to the US this month since they launch in even more countries in December and had Europe to supply and the UK and tons of other places ... just seems far fetched!

But hey, if Sony's production of the PS4 at launch is 2,000,000 a month, then holy shit that is impressive to say the very least ... especially since they are all selling out all the time with no sign of stopping ( ala Amazon being sold out currently, X1 of course in stock ).
 
D

daegan

Member
gtj1092 said:
Idk in most circumstances I would agree with you but after seeing the UK numbers and the Spain numbers I don't think we can say just because no one sees ps4s means they aren't selling and sony isn't supplying any. I mean no one could of predicted 530K units sold in the UK this year. Everyone thought they weren't supplying any there either but it turns out they shipped a boat load but just so happened to sell a boat load.

Would be nice to see data for the Gamecube and Xbox November to December ratio for their launch. That's the closest comparable situation I think to what we have this year.


[360] 800K
[3DS] 950k
[PS3] 650k
[PS4] 930k
[PSV] 150k
[WIU] 400k
[XB1] 920k
Click to expand...

Without saying more than I should I know what shipments looked like at several stores through both months. November had over a million in the US, but I promise you December did not.

In particular the shipments the last two weeks have been a lot smaller.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Microsoft PR has confirmed the Xbox One has sold-through 3 million consoles through December 31st, 2013.

November USA sales: 909,132

December Reporting Period: December 1st, 2013 - January 4th, 2014 (5 weeks)

Known numbers:

Mpl90 said:
These should be the known numbers so far

US: 909k (two weeks)
UK: 364k (from launch to end of 2013)
Spain: ~28k (4 weeks)
France: ~50k (2 weeks)
Australia: 67k (? week)

Total: 1,418,000.
Click to expand...

I'm not exactly sure what it means for predictions, but it does raise the console's chances of selling over a million in December.
 
L

Loris146

Member
Aquamarine said:
Microsoft PR has confirmed the Xbox One has sold-through 3 million consoles through December 31st, 2013.

November USA sales: 909,132

December Reporting Period: December 1st, 2013 - January 4th, 2014 (5 weeks)

Known numbers:



I'm not exactly sure what it means for predictions, but it does raise the console's chances of selling over a million in December.
Click to expand...


Interesting but i don't know how to interpret these numbers with this news :

Since its launch 18 days ago, Xbox One is proving to be the must-have gift this holiday season with more than 2 million consoles sold through to consumers worldwide
Click to expand...
 
R

Road

Member
Loris146 said:
Interesting but i don't know how to interpret these numbers with this news :
Click to expand...

Code: 
 100k 	worldwide	Nov 22
 910k 	US		Nov 30
 170k 	UK		Nov 30
2000k 	worldwide	Dec. 9
 360k 	UK		Dec 29
3000k 	worldwide	Dec 31
???? 	US		Jan 4

I.. have no idea too...

I guess I'll just repeat November's number. haha
 
N

noobie

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Microsoft PR has confirmed the Xbox One has sold-through 3 million consoles through December 31st, 2013.

November USA sales: 909,132

December Reporting Period: December 1st, 2013 - January 4th, 2014 (5 weeks)

Known numbers:



I'm not exactly sure what it means for predictions, but it does raise the console's chances of selling over a million in December.
Click to expand...

Hopefully Sony will be giving a counter PR statement soon.
 
A

AngryMoth

Member
Alright first time playing, I'll give it a shot.

[3DS] 1250k
[PS4] 1100k
[XB1] 1000k
[360] 750k
[PS3] 560k
[WIU] 450k
[PSV] 125k
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
November (Xbox One):

USA:
---909K Xbox One consoles sold in the USA (by November 30th)
UK:
---150K Xbox One consoles sold in the UK (by November 24th)
---170K Xbox One consoles sold in the UK (by December 1st)
AUS:
---66K Xbox One consoles sold in Australia (by November 24th)
WORLD:
---1000K Xbox One consoles sold worldwide (by November 22nd)
~1500K (1000-2000K) Xbox One consoles sold worldwide (by November 30th)


November (PS4):

USA:
---1138K PS4 consoles sold in the USA (by November 30th)
UK:
---250K Xbox One consoles sold in the UK (by December 1st)
AUS:
---A number notably less than 66K due to shortages (by December 1st)
WORLD:
---1000K PS4 consoles sold in North America (by November 17th)
---1400K PS4 consoles sold in North America (by December 1st)
---700K PS4 consoles sold in Europe + Other (by December 1st)
2100K PS4 consoles sold worldwide (by December 1st)




December (Xbox One):

USA:
---TBD (by January 4th)
UK:
---360K Xbox One consoles sold in the UK (by December 27th)
FR:
--->50K Xbox One consoles sold in France (by December 13th)
SPA:
---23K Xbox One consoles sold in Spain (by December 10th)
---28K (Xbox One consoles sold in Spain (by December 22nd)
WORLD:
---2000K Xbox One consoles sold worldwide (by December 9th)
3000K Xbox One consoles sold worldwide (by December 31st)


December (PS4):

USA:
---TBD (by January 4th)
UK:
---530K PS4 consoles sold in the UK (by December 27th)
FR:
---Easily surpassed >100K PS4 consoles sold in France (by December 13th)
SPA:
---80K PS4 consoles sold in Spain (by December 10th)
---134K (Xbox One consoles sold in Spain (by December 22nd)
WORLD:
4200K PS4 consoles sold worldwide (by December 28th)
 
K

kswiston

Member
Before I forget about this...

[360] 800k
[3DS] 1150k
[PS3] 600k
[PS4] 1050k
[PSV] 130k
[WIU] 420k
[XB1] 1000k

EDIT: Revised some numbers downwards
 
A

Apophis2036

Banned
Amazed at some of the predictions for 3DS selling 1-1.4 million :O, looks like I really went low with 750k :/.

Does anyone know what the record is for most consoles ever sold in a single NPD month (one format only), I imagine the Wii in the middle of the craze in 2008 or something ?.
 
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