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December 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 13
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
BlackBuzzard
Banned
The focus Microsoft seems to place on the US, personally i think there is just more supply then there is demand for the XBone.
Pound_lb003
Member
I think supply issues predominantly.
The fact there's not many PS4 on shelves and there's plenty XB1's anecdotally speaking means that there is at least stock to shift on side, regardless of demand.
Karsticles
Member
Well, I think we all know there is more supply than demand. But do we have any indication that Xbone supply was higher than PS4 supply? That would be a helpful metric. I know it has more availability, but that is not the same as having more supply.
Speculation that the PS4 has been very supply-constrained. If the supply has been roughly equal, then obviously the PS4 sold more (since they're so much less available). But if XB1 vastly outshipped PS4, who knows?
We have crap for data, though.
Randolph Freelander
Member
Wild guesses on how many PS4s Sony could get to stores and where demand for Xbox One topped out. That's really all there is to it.
We know the PS4 outsold the XBO in the UK in December, and Amazon UK reflected that.
Amazon US has the XBO ahead in December, but that is missing a few days in January included in the NPD period where the PS4 is ahead...
If I assume Amazon is also a good reflection of the US market and that shopping this last week was smaller than shopping the weeks before, then XBO would be my choice to be ahead.
As for actual numbers, I'll probably go with less than November for both.
Not gonna predict now, though. Gonna cross my fingers for some PR...
Amazon US has the XBO ahead in December, but that is missing a few days in January included in the NPD period where the PS4 is ahead...
If I assume Amazon is also a good reflection of the US market and that shopping this last week was smaller than shopping the weeks before, then XBO would be my choice to be ahead.
As for actual numbers, I'll probably go with less than November for both.
Not gonna predict now, though. Gonna cross my fingers for some PR...
Aquamarine
Member
Microsoft is most heavily pushing the USA in terms of stock and awareness. Last gen the 360 dominated over the PS3 in the USA (even to this day the two are more than 10 million apart, easily), so it's paramount for Microsoft to capture that same kind of attention.
I'm not 100% sure that Xbox One > PS4 in December, though. It's not like the PS4 hasn't had any success moving units. Hell, Sony is shipping them as quickly as possible...they've been trying their hardest to keep up stock throughout December.
It's very hard this month to determine a clear current-gen winner.
Pound_lb003
Member
If Amazon is anything to go by however, according to the 2013 overall bestsellers, PS4 is still in the lead, so the lead in December can't have outweighed the PS4's lead in November.
EDIT: Apparently I couldn't fit in anymore commas. Leaving them there for posterity.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Would you say January and February NPD are gonna be a better look at how thing could go this gen? Just speaking for the US ofcourse, i think mainland Europe is already decided, especially the countries Microsoft hasnt launched in yet.
At the very least, we will have to wait until both are regularly in stock everywhere. Even then, you can't really say anything this early.
Randolph Freelander
Member
January and February should make it obvious. But if Sony leads December, it's game over.
There was a 230k difference, so if the XBO sold 800k and the PS4 only 600k it would still be in the lead by 30k. =P
Overanalyzing Amazon even more, in the UK, actual sales were 44% higher for the PS4 and the difference in rankings in the store was visible:
9. PS4 / 40. PS4+KSF / 59. PS4+K
vs.
81. XBO+F14 / 84. XBO
In the US, The One is ahead:
4. XBO
vs.
8. PS4
but it's not such huge difference.
Microsoft has focused the vast majority of their shipments to the US while Sony launched in a gorillion different countries in the past month, so it's not terribly hard to deduce that MS would have significantly more units available than the competition. If the Xbone doesn't outsell the PS4 in the next NPD despite Sony effectively handing them the potential for a sales win on a silver platter, it'll be blunder of the century material.
EDIT:
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
hmmmm........
Pound_lb003
Member
TheXfactor
Member
wow a lot of you really have no faith in all the consoles this year, lol
Aquamarine
Member
January and February are going to be much more revealing just because those are the first months we'll really get exposed to their performances in a post-launch situation.
Remember the Wii U? That console sold 425K in November and 463K in December, but it was January where we could really see how the console was going to perform (it plummeted from 463K to 57K).
However, both the PS3, the 360, and the Wii experienced a relatively constant decline from December through March and then a stabilization in April.
Wii:
604K December -> 436K January = 72% Post-Holiday Retention
436K January -> 335K February -> 259K March -> 360K April
360:
281K December -> 249K January = 89% Post-Holiday Retention
249K January -> 161K February -> 192K March -> 294K April
PS3:
491K December -> 244K January = 50% Post-Holiday Retention
244K January -> 127K February -> 130K March -> 82K April
Keep in mind, this was a situation where the sales were severely limited by supply issues. The Xbox One is a phenomenon very different from the original 360 (it isn't launch constrained at all) so presumably we'll see steeper declines for the Xbox One than the PS4 from December to January.
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
I like your prediction, but I see 3DS beating both, since it historically sells really well, and it's a Pokemon year.
Yeah, same for me, I expect 3DS to outsell all the other systems and to be the only one to pass the 1000K mark. The rest will be way more tricky to predict in term of order - minus Vita - and volume. This month will be a prediction lottery.
theprodigy
Member
so, order-wise at least, I'm expecting 3DS>XB1/PS4>XB1/PS4>360>PS3>Wii U>Vita
Wii U might have an outside shot at beating PS3? doubt it though
Wii U might have an outside shot at beating PS3? doubt it though
Zero-Crescent
Member
[360] 700k
[3DS] 1000k
[PSV] 80k
[PS3] 475k
[WIU] 280k
[XB1] 1050k
[PS4] 1300k
[3DS] 1000k
[PSV] 80k
[PS3] 475k
[WIU] 280k
[XB1] 1050k
[PS4] 1300k
[360] 715k
[3DS] 870k
[PS3] 600k
[PS4] 720k
[PSV] 70k
[WIU] 310k
[XB1] 820k
before people think i'm crazy:
- shipments of ps4 seemed to be, for the month overall, less than the launch and black friday quantities
- xb1 stock from december is still sitting in many retailers
- it is not hard to find any model of 3ds at this point - any time the DS crossed 1mm there were colors/varieties completely gone from retail for months
Edited: updated 1/6 after ms announcement.
[3DS] 870k
[PS3] 600k
[PS4] 720k
[PSV] 70k
[WIU] 310k
[XB1] 820k
before people think i'm crazy:
- shipments of ps4 seemed to be, for the month overall, less than the launch and black friday quantities
- xb1 stock from december is still sitting in many retailers
- it is not hard to find any model of 3ds at this point - any time the DS crossed 1mm there were colors/varieties completely gone from retail for months
Edited: updated 1/6 after ms announcement.
SwiftDeath
Member
I imagine following the order given in OP makes tallying up totals and averages miles easier afterwards
theprodigy
Member
....nah, you're still crazy
not as crazy as anyone in this thread putting 1m next to anything. there's no chance that 1m ps4s were in the US last month. no way. also next to no chance they sold 1m xb1. I'm lowballing both systems a little but tbh probably not that much.
edit: also i feel comfortable asserting that 3ds didn't move as much as it did in November and a lot of this thread puts wayyyyyy too much weight on amazon~
TheXfactor
Member
i saw plenty of 3DS after christmas in 2011 and it sold 1.7 million in december.
The reason the DS would sell out colors is because it didnt just sell over a million, it sold over 2.5 million or over 3 million. It was a selling machine
Idk in most circumstances I would agree with you but after seeing the UK numbers and the Spain numbers I don't think we can say just because no one sees ps4s means they aren't selling and sony isn't supplying any. I mean no one could of predicted 530K units sold in the UK this year. Everyone thought they weren't supplying any there either but it turns out they shipped a boat load but just so happened to sell a boat load.
Would be nice to see data for the Gamecube and Xbox November to December ratio for their launch. That's the closest comparable situation I think to what we have this year.
[360] 800K
[3DS] 950k
[PS3] 650k
[PS4] 930k
[PSV] 150k
[WIU] 400k
[XB1] 920k
1st Course
Member
[360] 650k
[3DS] 1100k
[PS3] 480k
[PS4] 1100k
[PSV] 93k
[WIU] 450k
[XB1] 900k
[3DS] 1100k
[PS3] 480k
[PS4] 1100k
[PSV] 93k
[WIU] 450k
[XB1] 900k
theprodigy
Member
Aquamarine
Member
I find it strange that roughly a third of predictions have the Wii U underperforming MOM (lower than 223K) in its 2nd December. Post-launch, every Wii, PS3, and 360 year had December above November.
And, December is a 5-week month compared to November's 4 weeks. Throughout December I've seen loads of Wii U ads (I live in the USA)...Nintendo has invested a significant amount of money into marketing this time around. That's a phenomenon I haven't seen in quite a while.
I don't picture the console doing significantly better, but I feel that a prediction lower than 223K is a bit too low for my expectations.
Xbox USA Launch
November 2001 -> 711,619 (50.7%)
December 2001 -> 690,817 (49.3%)
GameCube USA Launch
November 2001 -> 662,560 (53.6%)
December 2001 -> 573,499 (46.4%)
And, December is a 5-week month compared to November's 4 weeks. Throughout December I've seen loads of Wii U ads (I live in the USA)...Nintendo has invested a significant amount of money into marketing this time around. That's a phenomenon I haven't seen in quite a while.
I don't picture the console doing significantly better, but I feel that a prediction lower than 223K is a bit too low for my expectations.
Xbox USA Launch
November 2001 -> 711,619 (50.7%)
December 2001 -> 690,817 (49.3%)
GameCube USA Launch
November 2001 -> 662,560 (53.6%)
December 2001 -> 573,499 (46.4%)
metalslimer
Member
[360] 550k
[3DS] 1090k
[PS3] 490k
[PS4] 910k
[PSV] 104k
[WIU] 435k
[XB1] 800k
[3DS] 1090k
[PS3] 490k
[PS4] 910k
[PSV] 104k
[WIU] 435k
[XB1] 800k
Correct. I find it REALLY hard to believe that the XBone is flying off the shelves when there are stacks of them everywhere and even Gaffers who work in retail are saying that they sell extremely slowly compared to the PS4. PS4 meanwhile is in very high demand and doesn't stay on shelves for long at all. The difference between the hype and demand for both systems is night and day whether people are willing to admit it or not.
Nope. Just follow the format for each system. jvm would like you to put them in order from greatest to least, but it doesn't matter for collating the data.
Seconded, but it will be VERY slim (<50K).
1st Course
Member
No one think the Vita is going to see a bump in sales because of the PS4?
I think you got the inequality symbol backwards, unless you were trying to say "very slim, but still larger than 50K."
The alligator wants to eat the larger number.
I think you got the inequality symbol backwards, unless you were trying to say "very slim, but still larger than 50K."
The alligator wants to eat the larger number.
Its 1am here and I'm hungry, leave me alone :-(