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[bonesmccoy]

The regions are very different, but what just popped into my head was how the Bahranis requested the intervention of the Saudis (officially the Gulf Cooperation Council) when the ruling family (of Sunni origin) was facing mass protests. Any chance Yanukovych requests Russian military intervention if the protests get beyond his control or there is internal fracturing among Ukrainian security forces/military? I don't think there is a cloak of legitimacy like the Saudis/Bahraini ruling family had with the GCC, but I guess Russia could claim its historical responsibilities/claims over the region, etc.

Anything's possible, but it would highly unlikely. Putin et al. are no doubt aware of how the presence of Russian troops would only exacerbate divisions; interventions can just as easily, maybe even usually, cause greater instability and lead to more violence.

Also Russia, since the dissolution of the USSR, has never seemed interested in direct intervention - if anything it's kind of fascinating how little 'fight' the post-Soviet Russian government made as its direct power receded toward Moscow. You'd probably need to see something really, really bad - ie the Ukrainian Nationalists taking power and trying to 'cleanse' Eastern and Southern Ukraine of ethnic Russians - before a military intervention.

Yes and cut themselves off from exporting their biggest export?

There won't be a large conflict over this IMO but there is room for the West to play hard ball.

Germany doesn't want the US or anyone in the West 'playing hard ball'. The idea here is to avoid getting into direct conflict with them, not using the Ukrainian crisis as means to one-up those dastardly Ruskies, because Western Europe buys a lot of its energy from Russia and that closer cooperation benefits both sides significantly. In fact, it's not clear exactly why the US would even be interested in taking a hard stance here given that it is trying to work with Russia to resolve the Syrian Civil War, and because Russia enjoys natural advantages in that region that the West/EU/NATO/whatever can't compete against.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Germany doesn't want the US or anyone in the West 'playing hard ball'. The idea here is to avoid getting into direct conflict with them, not using the Ukrainian crisis as means to one-up those dastardly Ruskies, because Western Europe buys a lot of its energy from Russia and that closer cooperation benefits both sides significantly. In fact, it's not clear exactly why the US would even be interested in taking a hard stance here given that it is trying to work with Russia to resolve the Syrian Civil War, and because Russia enjoys natural advantages in that region that the West/EU/NATO/whatever can't compete against.

I mean sanctions and putting pressure not just 'staying out' that's what I mean by hardball they're gonna take a stance and not do what they did in egypt. The EU has already stated they will look at sanctions and the US has stated whatever happens is on the Government no the Protesters. We've taken sides and they'll do what the can to get the outcome they want.

The US is done with Russia over Syria, they're is no room for progress there. They're not going to be openly antagonistic but lets not pretend they're still trying to be on their best behavior to get better results from Russia, the president has learned that's not going to get results. The only issue I think the US and Russia can still get something substantial done on is Iran where there interests are more closely aligned.

And natural advantages? That's the same historical interest argument Russia always uses. They've clearly not got the respect of much of the Ukrainian people. That's code Putin uses to give himself a little mini empire where international norms and sovereignty don't apply and Russia can try to rebuild the USSR.

I'm not advocating a return to cold war politics or the US and the West always getting involved but this notion they have no role to play Russia can solve everything is a horrible think and leads to horrible outcomes as we're seeing now. For all intents and purposes the US and EU have 'stayed out' so far here as they've not done anything but talk about reaching an amicable solution and Russia can't use its 'natural advantages' (a Monroe doctrine for Eastern Europe is what you're calling for?)

 

[Liha]

I think few people here have played/seen too many games/movies, nothing will happen.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

The best thing for the west to do IMO is encourage peaceful protests and the government to engage in dialog possibly pressuring them into talks with economic and political pressure

 

[JohnTinker]

4 Kiev streams on one page: http://feed.matthewkeys.net/cr1/

 

[bonesmccoy]

I mean sanctions and putting pressure not just 'staying out' that's what I mean by hardball they're gonna take a stance and not do what they did in egypt. The EU has already stated they will look at sanctions and the US has stated whatever happens is on the Government no the Protesters. We've taken sides and they'll do what the can to get the outcome they want.

Sanctions will hurt most the people the hawks are ostensibly hoping to protect, and therefore are an obviously terrible idea.

The US is done with Russia over Syria, they're is no room for progress there. They're not going to be openly antagonistic but lets not pretend they're still trying to be on their best behavior to get better results from Russia, the president has learned that's not going to get results. The only issue I think the US and Russia can still get something substantial done on is Iran where there interests are more closely aligned.

Well, fine - if not Syria, than with Iran. The thing here is that Russian cooperation in that region is something the US should be seeking out, rather than trying to squander.

And natural advantages? That's the same historical interest argument Russia always uses.

No, it's not an argument, it's a statement of fact. Russia has more influence in that region than the West can ever hope to achieve in a realistic time frame, if ever. It means that trying to compete with Russia is this region is basically an exercise in needless antagonism and futility.

They've clearly not got the respect of much of the Ukrainian people. That's code Putin uses to give himself a little mini empire where international norms and sovereignty don't apply and Russia can try to rebuild the USSR.

Russia may not have the respect of a simple majority, but it's not even clear that the protesters do either (particularly if the nationalists end up getting the most out of this).

But with respect to the Putin comment... come on. Russia isn't trying to rebuild the USSR just because it desires Ukraine to join it's economic treaty; it's in Russia's plain interests to have its, and its immediate neighbours' economies more harmonized - like it is for any other country in the world.

I'm not advocating a return to cold war politics or the US and the West always getting involved but this notion they have no role to play Russia can solve everything is a horrible think and leads to horrible outcomes as we're seeing now. For all intents and purposes the US and EU have 'stayed out' so far here as they've not done anything but talk about reaching an amicable solution and Russia can't use its 'natural advantages' (a Monroe doctrine for Eastern Europe is what you're calling for?)

I'm not sure what you're saying here.

 

[Nilaul]

Time for Germany and the EU to step up their game.

 

[Nilaul]

Sanctions will hurt most the people the hawks are ostensibly hoping to protect, and therefore are an obviously terrible idea.

Not if the sanctions are geared at the politicians. Like having their bank accounts suspended, visa, extra tax on them etc. Basically treat the government like criminals.

 

[Succinct Verbosity]

No way is the EU going to do anything but lend support for peaceful protests. The last thing the EU needs is to be viewed as a puppet master, when that's exactly how Russia are percieved.

 

[maquiladora]

European Union calls extraordinary meeting of bloc's 28 foreign ministers on Ukraine violence on Thursday - @AP

 

[Brerlappin]

This is some seriously scary shit. Dont think ive ever seen such prolonged, violent rioting in my life. Honestly tho, what are the odds of Yanukovich stepping down now? It seems like a total stalemate, he wont leave, and the protesters arent giving up. Its like he expected it to be an occupy wall st type movement where people just get bored and go home after a few weeks.

 

[Oriel]

Anything's possible, but it would highly unlikely. Putin et al. are no doubt aware of how the presence of Russian troops would only exacerbate divisions; interventions can just as easily, maybe even usually, cause greater instability and lead to more violence.

Also Russia, since the dissolution of the USSR, has never seemed interested in direct intervention - if anything it's kind of fascinating how little 'fight' the post-Soviet Russian government made as its direct power receded toward Moscow. You'd probably need to see something really, really bad - ie the Ukrainian Nationalists taking power and trying to 'cleanse' Eastern and Southern Ukraine of ethnic Russians - before a military intervention.



Germany doesn't want the US or anyone in the West 'playing hard ball'. The idea here is to avoid getting into direct conflict with them, not using the Ukrainian crisis as means to one-up those dastardly Ruskies, because Western Europe buys a lot of its energy from Russia and that closer cooperation benefits both sides significantly. In fact, it's not clear exactly why the US would even be interested in taking a hard stance here given that it is trying to work with Russia to resolve the Syrian Civil War, and because Russia enjoys natural advantages in that region that the West/EU/NATO/whatever can't compete against.

Any possible Russian invasion doesn't need such stringent requirements for an intervention. The Kremlin has stated a mere request from Russian speaking regions for intervention would be enough for an invasion.

 

[Oriel]

I think few people here have played/seen too many games/movies, nothing will happen.

That belief was common before Russia invaded Georgia.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Ok, I'll clarify.

Yes, there is an interest in rekindling the fairy-tale Bush era foreign policy goals of the early and mid-00s in some Western government groups and amongst excitable journos/pundits.

But no, there is no compelling (ie, something in which the costs/benefits comparison balances toward the former) national or supranational interest for getting involved in what is purely a regional/internal conflict.

And why is it a win to aggravate Russia exactly?

I think you've sort of missed the point of what I'm saying. I said the whole point is not to aggravate Russia insofar as that is possible. Maybe you could try reading my post again?

 

[maquiladora]

Lviv region declaring itself independent? Could be huge.

 

[Liha]

That belief was common before Russia invaded Georgia.

Georgia started the war, not Russia.

They also said that of some 350 law enforcement officers who had been hospitalised, 74 had gunshot wounds.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4ae4f3e8-98d5-11e3-a32f-00144feab7de.html#slide0

The protesters are real terrorists.

Lviv region declaring itself independent? Could be huge.

The governor of Lviv is Oleh Salo from Our Ukraine (Janukowitsch party), this cannot be right.

Time for Germany and the EU to step up their game.

A criminal investigation into child pornography has turned into a crisis for germany's government. It has already cost one minister his post, the government has currently other problems.

 

[Chariot]

Lviv region declaring itself independent? Could be huge.

Do you have more informations regarding this?

 

[Kinyou]

Time for Germany and the EU to step up their game.

They're going to make porn softer, aren't they?

 

[maquiladora]

Do you have more informations regarding this?

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/190981.html

 

[Enkidu]

Time for Germany and the EU to step up their game.

It actually seems like something might be happening now. No guarantees of course considering how paralyzed the EU has been on this issue so far, but Francois Hollande and Donald Tusk called for “rapid and targeted European sanctions against those leaders responsible for these acts” today, and they seem to be backed up by German and Swedish foreign ministers.

 

[Dawg]

That place looks like Mordor.

 

[CheDominik]

Lviv region declaring itself independent? Could be huge.

In a turmoil like that, stuff like that happens quite a bit. The first thing that comes to mind were various german regions declare independency after the 1918 revolution. Most of the time it's just a couple of lunatics and I wouldnt read too much into it.

 

[Jackpot]

Georgia started the war, not Russia.

Except everyone and their mother agrees Russia used it as an opportunity to make widespread strikes on Georgian infrastructure that had nothing to do with the conflict. Two wrongs don't make a right.

The protesters are real terrorists.

Must suck for you to see such huge domestic support for taking down a corrupt regime. But hey, as long as you've got yours let's turn a blind eye to all the government's done.

 

[Liha]

Must suck for you to see such huge domestic support for taking down a corrupt regime. But hey, as long as you've got yours let's turn a blind eye to all the government's done.

Janukowitsch is maybe an asshole but corrupt regime?


Let me google that for you

"While the word regime originates as a synonym for any form of government, modern usage often gives the term a negative connotation, implying an authoritarian government or dictatorship"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regime

Janukowitsch is an elected asshole, no dictator.

I don`t care what happens there, I'm neutral and no nato / moscow moron.

 

[Jackpot]

I don`t care what happens there, I'm neutral and no nato / moscow moron.

Well as someone capable of empathy and not caring about portraying myself as "above it all" I do care what happens there.

If the protesters are terrorists then what would you call these people?

Or has the EU done any overt smear tactics like this?

 

[Liha]

Well as someone capable of empathy and not caring about portraying myself as "above it all" I do care what happens there.

If the protesters are terrorists then what would you call these people?

Or has the EU done any overt smear tactics like this?

The security forces are also assholes.

I have a problem with the fact that the 20,000 protesters believe they represent the whole of Ukraine.

It`s time to go home, the election is next year. The people will vote him out or reelect.

The ukraine is a democratic state, no dictatorship like syria or the regime in turkey. This fact is the main reason, why nothing will happen.

 

[Darklord]

The ukraine is a democratic state, no dictatorship like syria or the regime in turkey.

The fact that they quickly pushed through strict anti-protest laws and use intimidation to try and stop the protesting says they aren't much of a democracy.

 

[Liha]

The fact that they quickly pushed through strict anti-protest laws and use intimidation to try and stop the protesting says they aren't much of a democracy.

I am ok with this, but Janukowitsch is still the elected president of Ukraine.

The other thing is, who is the opposition? Klitschkos 13,97% party or the communist party with 13,18%?

Oh or maybe the nazi party Svoboda with 10,45 %?

Ukraine has a problem, all parties are worse than the other.

"All protesters are terrorists"

"All protesters are murderers"

I'm sure you are as neutral as they come.

The Ukraine is a democracy, no dictatorship. There is no reason to shoot or throw Molotov cocktails.

I am sure the american police will like you, when you throw molotov cocktails on them.

So was egypt ...

It's laughable to compare ukraine with egypt. The history and initial situation areo so different.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

I don`t care what happens there, I'm neutral and no nato / moscow moron.

"All protesters are terrorists"

"All protesters are murderers"

I'm sure you are as neutral as they come.

 

[Terra]

Looks like a fucking war zone.
Baffled that people let this happen.

Sorry if I come off as arrogant. But boesn´t this country have some kind of constitution? How about voting and election?

 

[goomba]

The ukraine is a democratic state, no dictatorship like syria or the regime in turkey. This fact is the main reason, why nothing will happen.

So was egypt ...

 

[CheDominik]

Looks like a fucking war zone.
Baffled that people let this happen.

Sorry if I come off as arrogant. But boesn´t this country have some kind of constitution? How about voting and election?

People have tossed constitutions in the paper bin and will continue to do so if they feel that their voices aren't heard and/or elections are rigged/pointless.

 

[Terra]

People have tossed constitutions in the paper bin and will continue to do so if they feel that their voices aren't heard and/or elections are rigged/pointless.

Well. If there are fears of rigged elections, you can write in the constitution that every election should be surveyed by neutral election-guards.

But well...as someone apparently have tossed constitutions in the paper bin, that seems to be the main problem.

I am glad that I live in a democratic state, where the majority is given the opportunity throw the prime minister out of office every fourth year.

 

[Kinan]

I am ok with this, but Janukowitsch is still the elected president of Ukraine.

The other thing is, who is the opposition? Klitschkos 13,97% party or the communist party with 13,18%?

Oh or maybe the nazi party Svoboda with 10,45 %?

Ukraine has a problem, all parties are worse than the other.

The Ukraine is a democracy, no dictatorship. There is no reason to shoot or throw Molotov cocktails.

I love how you left out the biggest opposition party. By all accounts three opposition parties which are active on Maidan represent majority of the Ukraine's population.
But its not important, really, because for the first time in Ukraine history people are not standing there to support a leader or a party, but to get their basic rights fulfilled. And if you follow the protests carefully, Maidan doesn't really like any of the 3 opposition leaders.

After Yanukovich raped the Constitution, seized control on courts and on parlament its a no longer democracy, its a dictatorship. After last night - bloody dictatorship. IF you are a president, you should feel responsibility for your country, the current state of affairs is fully the presidents fault. He had all the power he ever wanted and even more to rule Ukraine and he run its economy into the ground, did everything to piss of people and provoke civil unrest and (for the first time in Ukraine modern history) gave orders to use force against protesters. Any democratic president would resign long time ago.

He thought he could do everything he wants and people would be as passive as Russians. Guess what, mr president, most of Ukraine is not Russia, surprise, surprise. I almost did not sleep last night, watching how your thugs were killing my people, was crying when I recognised one of my university lecturers on one of the photos and when I saw photo of one of my favourite musicians with a broken leg, father of him I knew personally (amazing theoretical physicist). I looking through list of casualties every hour and afraid to see a name of someone I know.

All the geopolitical armchair analysts here are making me sick. We don't care about Russia or EU at this point, its about our country and our rights. We were naive enough to hope that corruption and human right violation are also crimes in EU or in US and provided enough evidence about our stolen money "the family" has deposited abroad. Guess what, after 3 month of "deep concern" messages no sanctions were made by EU or US and no investigations started. Thats what that "act of fuck off" poster means, its not a call for intervention, we just wanted that US and EU demonstrate that the democracy and human rights values are not just empty words....

 

[Liha]

we just wanted that US and EU demonstrate that the democracy and human rights values are not just empty words....

The US and human rights? I think the drone victims will agree.

 

[Simplet]

The security forces are also assholes.

I have a problem with the fact that the 20,000 protesters believe they represent the whole of Ukraine.

It`s time to go home, the election is next year. The people will vote him out or reelect.

The ukraine is a democratic state, no dictatorship like syria or the regime in turkey. This fact is the main reason, why nothing will happen.

If Ukraine was a democratic state, the president would have called for new elections weeks ago, or at the very least would have resigned this morning in a hurry. This much is clear.

You don't rule a democratic country wen you have the blood of dozens of your own citizens on your hands.

 

[Jackpot]

The US and human rights? I think the drone victims will agree.

How about a response to the post above yours?

 

[smokeandmirrors]

The Ukraine is a democracy, no dictatorship. There is no reason to shoot or throw Molotov cocktails.

I am sure the american police will like you, when you throw molotov cocktails on them.
.

I hope you hold the police to the same standards then. After all, it is a democracy. No need to use unnecessary force....

 

[CHEEZMO™]

The Trade Unions Building after the fire last night

And this is supposedly Lviv a while ago

 

[Oriel]

Lol at people claiming Ukraine is a democracy because Yanukovych was elected. But so too was Mugabe, and Assad (technically). The behaviour of the Ukrainian regime renders their moral high ground irrelevant and places the impetus with the protesters. Reporters and doctors shouldn't be beaten up for interviewing and treating activists in Independence Sq.

 

[Terra]

Lol at people claiming Ukraine is a democracy because Yanukovych was elected. But so too was Mugabe, and Assad (technically). The behaviour of the Ukrainian regime renders their moral high ground irrelevant and places the impetus with the protesters. Reporters and doctors shouldn't be beaten up for interviewing and treating activists in Independence Sq.

I think that the problem with the most of these "democracies" is that even if the majority is elected and in charge, the minority must still be represented and respected.

 

[CHEEZMO™]

I believe this is Uzhhorod https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=I6VGcgfJuxo

 

[CHEEZMO™]

Another APC tries to break the barricade:

http://youtu.be/SoMUxGkBlf0

Wow, here's a video from behind the barricade of this moment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mjy2n1X0Q4k

 

[Oriel]

It gets better:

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych moved to quell a growing insurgency by granting sweeping powers to the army and police after a region declared independence from his government, risking wider conflict.

Reeling from the bloodiest clashes in a three-month standoff, the Russian-backed leader’s security service said today it’s undertaking a nationwide anti-terrorism operation to restore public order and protect state borders. That gives the army the right to search, detain and even fire on Ukrainians in the course of the operation, the Defense Ministry said in a statement posted on the government’s website.

The security service said in the statement that protesters have seized more than 1,500 guns and 100,000 rounds of ammunition from military bases, depots and government buildings, without elaborating.

“We may be witnessing the first hour of a civil war,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told lawmakers in Warsaw today. “If people are dying and being injured during protests, it’s the authorities who are responsible.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...at-least-18-dead-as-kiev-barricades-burn.html

 

[Oriel]

I think that the problem with the most of these "democracies" is that even if the majority is elected and in charge, the minority must still be represented and respected.

Except in the case of Ukraine it is a minority (Oligarchs and Kremlin cronies) that rules the country. The former PM Azarov fled the country with millions in embezzled money.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Hey, the US rarely had any inhibitions when it came to bringing freedom to the world. If they attack middle eastern, north african and east asian countries with and without NATO permission for the sake of freedom, they can attack the Ukraine, too.

Or will you leave the people who scream for help against tyranny like you did with hungary, after you promised help for any country that wants help for freedom?

edit: I'm sorry, this is not exactly on topic. But I really think, that the EU and the US should threaten with war or forced liberation of the people. We can't just watch them die, crying for help.

Yes, I'm sure we will sit is out and yes, the West has done so quite often and will do so in the future.

Also, I don't think you want our brand of liberating power. Assuming you still want salvageable land. Unless the government starts dropping bombs and dropping people into mass graves, expect little more than diplomacy.

 

[Jhriad]

How about a response to the post above yours?

It's more convenient to go silent than actually respond to a post that addresses his previous bunk.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

It gets better:



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...at-least-18-dead-as-kiev-barricades-burn.html

but he was elected and it's still totally a democracy guys

Good luck Ukraine. I've wanted to visit the country and looks like those plans are on indefinite hold until things blow over and that could take years :\

 

[CHEEZMO™]

 

[maquiladora]

Yanukovich has fired the Chief Military Commander and the Chief Navy Commander. Perhaps they were refusing to take his orders?

http://translate.google.com/transla...zident_yanukovich_uvolil_glavu_genshtaba_.htm