No ones downplaying this. They're looking at the bigger picture. If the PS4 ends up the only healthy console and sells at the normal rate of a single last gen console, the industry's going to experience a further significant contraction.
See 3DS. It kicked the Vita's ass all the way to china town but things aren't rosy for it because that industry is experiencing a massive contraction. Simply beating your direct opponent isn't everything.
My expectation was for the PS4 to make up for the abysmal sales of the XB1 during the month. 199k while definitely in line with high popular last gen consoles really does not do that. Why I have that expectation or rather hope is so we don't see a significant contraction where the PS4 sells on par with the 360 and everything else sells comparatively like crap (which means a large market contraction..
In terms of console units sold i think a contraction this gen in US is inevitable. You had both 360 and Wii above 40 million units with the Wii pulling in a lot of people who i believe wouldn't normally buy a console. You even had PS3 clawing back to high 20 something millions. That was never going to repeat once the Wii U failed to grab the zeitgeist again.
The loss of the extended Wii install base is never going to be filled. The question is just how big the drop will be IMHO. PS4 looks like it will do fine but XB1 is seriously wavering and Wii U is clearly going to end up way lower than Wii.
This doesn't mean a market failure automatically though - more likely simply showing last gen in US was a rarely to be repeated high due in large part to the odd mix of Wii selling huge but having a short lifespan at viable levels with the 360 selling huge with an enormously spread lifespan and Ps3 selling well enough as the former brand leader that still had solid appeal.
One things for sure though - Kinect is dead. MS are going to be way to busy rescuing XB1 without it and other developers will drop it like a rock now IMO. Its going to be and odd memory soon as it can clearly play no part in MS recovery. Hell recent Spencer quotes seem to imply Rare will be removed from having to support it and free to make non Kinect games.
As for PS4 its looking very solid. InFamous did its job and now they need to match PS3 approach of getting a solid production line of exclusives flowing alongside the big multi-0platform games to make PS4 a very tough beast for MS to dislodge.
Jesus though i wish US would wake up to what a terrific gaming device the Vita is - its only home to one of the best and most innovative new IP this gen and almost no one's even going to play it in US. The horror the horror.
