• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

September 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14th

I

IAmRandom31

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
I can tell you without looking at Amazon in broad strokes what titles will be the highest sellers of the year. I don't have precognition that I'm aware of nor am I an indicator of trends.

There are an abundance of issues with using the monthly chart as highlighted above for anything but broad trends. So I really can't see of what use an hourly chart at an arbitrary time point serves.
Click to expand...

Yeh thats what I meant by those games that were continually on the top 20 list for a long time period, not just for one quick burst and then it falls back into the 30s.

Almost all games near release will hit the Top 10 or whatever, but there are those games that are just always near the top 10 list or on it and stick around for weeks / months. Those are the ones that are almost always going to match up.
 
O

On Demand

Banned
I don't know why people still doubt Amazon rankings. Nobody is using it to predict exact sales (at least i don't), just how popular an item is. It hasn't failed us yet. When XB1 was on top in December NPD guess where it was on Amazon? Number 1. Amazon is a big retailer so it's easy to guess the trend is the same everywhere else. And it usually is. Gamestop and Bestbuy rankings tell the same story.
 
S

Spazgadget

Member
[PS4] 420k
[XB1] 260k
[WIU] 59k
[PS3] 25k
[360] 60k
[3DS] 120k

Thanks Abdiel for the insight.

I am being a bit conservative with my PS4 numbers but honestly the Destiny factor is a total wild card. I can imagine much higher numbers but we'll see. Expect X1 to have a good month too with the free game deal and general "momentum" towards the holiday. Oh god I just said "momentum".
 
T

Ty4on

Member
I spent way too much time on these. Really wanna do well this time, but nothing felt right and the hints are so vague.

[360] 55k
[3DS] 140k
[PS3] 32k
[PS4] 565k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 260k

Long analysis that is really for future me making a prediction
and laughing at my awful predictions when they were so obvious
.
360 and PS3 are declining, but at a somewhat odd rate. The 360 had a slight bump and the PS3 decline really increased last month. Naturally I did the opposite and gave PS3 a very small decline while the 360 got a bigger one.

3DS with the same percentage bump as last year would have done 150k this month. However last year Pokemon X, Pokemon 3DS' and the 2DS launched. I wanted to predict something lower because of that, but the 2DS bundle could catch a lot of people and ofc SSB.
WiiU would adjusted weekly do 74k, but it's the WiiU.

PS4 sales kept me from posting these. If I assume the Amazon rankings are correct then we know XB1 Titanfall sold at least 280k, probably over 300k, and now we have a number for the Destiny bundle. The next question is how many sales they stole from the regular PS4. If none then PS4 pretty much "must" have sold more than 550k (~250k + <300k)
This prediction frustrated me because it felt like there was something clever I could do to extract a good prediction, but no. 500k and 600k to me feel almost equally likely depending on how you look at things, but I settled for slightly closer to 600k.

I gave XB1 a fairly big bump. I'm really not sure because last month were already higher than baseline, but the 360 got good bumps in its later years and both Amazon and Abdiel seemed to agree on a decent increase. Least calculated prediction by far though.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
On Demand said:
I don't know why people still doubt Amazon rankings. Nobody is using it to predict exact sales (at least i don't), just how popular an item is. It hasn't failed us yet. When XB1 was on top in December NPD guess where it was on Amazon? Number 1. Amazon is a big retailer so it's easy to guess the trend is the same everywhere else. And it usually is. Gamestop and Bestbuy rankings tell the same story.
Click to expand...

It's fine when you're comparing consoles (generally) or comparing different SKUs of the same game, it gets significantly less useful when you're trying to compare completely different games (i.e. MK8 being the top game of the year on Amazon).
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
On Demand said:
I don't know why people still doubt Amazon rankings. Nobody is using it to predict exact sales (at least i don't), just how popular an item is. It hasn't failed us yet. When XB1 was on top in December NPD guess where it was on Amazon? Number 1. Amazon is a big retailer so it's easy to guess the trend is the same everywhere else. And it usually is. Gamestop and Bestbuy rankings tell the same story.
Click to expand...

It's because people can get a little too carried away with the Amazon <-> NPD correlation at times.

You should always have a healthy amount of skepticism and doubt in all retail indications. It's not healthy to just look at Amazon rankings and determine "Well, that's obviously how the rankings are going to be," because that's definitely not the case.

For example, Destiny PS4 is outpacing Destiny XBO by a few rankings in Amazon...but NPD could have Destiny XBO outpacing Destiny PS4.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
I'm kind of intrigued by the idea that even Destiny PS4 retail standalone might sell less than Destiny XB1 standalone. It's assuredly a possibility but the gap in install bases this holiday is much larger than last and we've already seen Madden sell better on PS4 retail standalone versus XB1 All SKUs even with a bundle and co-marketing. It would greatly impress me if even Destiny PS4 retail standalone was outsold by the XB1 SKU of the game.

I'm so excited for next week :)
 
O

On Demand

Banned
Aquamarine said:
It's because people can get a little too carried away with the Amazon <-> NPD correlation at times.

You should always have a healthy amount of skepticism and doubt in all retail indications. It's not healthy to just look at Amazon rankings and determine "Well, that's obviously how the rankings are going to be," because that's definitely not the case.

For example, Destiny PS4 is outpacing Destiny XBO by a few rankings in Amazon...but NPD could have Destiny XBO outpacing Destiny PS4.
Click to expand...

Yeah I don't take it as it's exactly how hardware and software sales are going to be with NPD. But was there ever a month where the order didn't match up with NPD's results?

Using your Destiny example I actually expect the PS4 version to lead. Whether it's by 1 copy or 1 million I think the SKU order will be PS4>XB1>360>PS3.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
maxiell said:
Why would you think this would be close?
Click to expand...

I would say that the percentage of the Xbox One userbase that are into online shooters is bigger than the percentage of the PS4 userbase that are into the same genre.

It should be pretty close. I'm honestly guessing a 45/55 split; Maybe even closer.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
On Demand said:
Yeah I don't take it as it's exactly how hardware and software sales are going to be with NPD. But was there ever a month where the order didn't match up with NPD's results?
Click to expand...

The comparisons have been of little value most of the time though with all the XB1 bundles diluting sales. Even the Titanfall bundle only accounted for ~70% of XB1 sales in March.

On Amazon in December 2013 XB1 was 4th vs PS4's 8th while in NPD it only won by ~6%. Due to the scarce supply of consoles back then I think all stores had a poor picture of total sales.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
maxiell said:
Why would you think this would be close?
Click to expand...

well it's not hard to see why it would be close (I would actually be somewhat surprised if it was more than 55:45 in favor of PS4 standalone):

1) in the UK, Destiny had a higher attach rate on XB1 WITH the PS4 bundles, and I'd expect it to be similar here
2) since the install bases are closer in the US than they are there (currently ~1.23:1 in favor of PS4, though this should expand by a decent amount after this month), and removing the bundle sales, it could definitely be close

I wouldn't bet on the Xbox One version actually beating it though
 
A

Abdiel

Member
ascii42 said:
Interesting, what has you thinking the XB1 outsold the PS4?
Click to expand...

I'm curious about this as well, since there's no sign from any of the channels I've seen that shows that they were even in close contest. But that's the fun of predictions, I guess
 
S

SteveMcqwark

Banned
Jamix012 said:
don't think that'll get you anywhere. Xbox One should do well but it'll be steamrolled this month by the PS4.
Click to expand...

10 stores. But yes it's still not a picture of the whole country.

But I also don't think it will be steam rolled even if I had no AE, Destiny is selling a lot on both consoles, then you have announcements, and Forza as well. I don;t think the gap will be as far as people think.

Also Destiny is pretty much all the PS4 has had this month and the bad reviews have spread quite fast.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
SteveMcqwark said:
10 stores. But yes it's still not a picture of the whole country.

But I also don't think it will be steam rolled even if I had no AE, Destiny is selling a lot on both consoles, then you have announcements, and Forza as well. I don;t think the gap will be as far as people think.
Click to expand...

10 stores is too small of a sample. I think you're working with outliers that shouldn't be extrapolated into a country-wide prediction.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
SteveMcqwark said:
10 stores. But yes it's still not a picture of the whole country.

But I also don't think it will be steam rolled even if I had no AE, Destiny is selling a lot on both consoles, then you have announcements, and Forza as well. I don;t think the gap will be as far as people think.

Also Destiny is pretty much all the PS4 has had this month and the bad reviews have spread quite fast.
Click to expand...

Fifa?
 
C

cakely

Member
Aquamarine said:
It's because people can get a little too carried away with the Amazon <-> NPD correlation at times.

You should always have a healthy amount of skepticism and doubt in all retail indications. It's not healthy to just look at Amazon rankings and determine "Well, that's obviously how the rankings are going to be," because that's definitely not the case.

For example, Destiny PS4 is outpacing Destiny XBO by a few rankings in Amazon...but NPD could have Destiny XBO outpacing Destiny PS4.
Click to expand...

This generation the correlation between amazon rankings and NPD rankings has been perfect, and I don't think this month will break that trend.

Also, Destiny is not a great example. I expect Destiny on Playstation 4 to outsell Destiny on the Xbox One. Why wouldn't it? The Playstation 4 has the larger install base.
 
A

ascii42

Member
cakely said:
This generation the correlation between amazon rankings and NPD rankings has been perfect, and I don't think this month will break that trend.

Also, Destiny is not a great example. I expect Destiny on Playstation 4 to outsell Destiny on the Xbox One. Why wouldn't it? The Playstation 4 has the larger install base.
Click to expand...
The XB1 shooter fan base may still be larger. Most games sold better on 360 than PS3, but certain games, like Final Fantasy, sold better on PS3 despite the 360's much larger install base.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
cakely said:
This generation the correlation between amazon rankings and NPD rankings has been perfect, and I don't think this month will break that trend.

Also, Destiny is not a great example. I expect Destiny on Playstation 4 to outsell Destiny on the Xbox One. Why wouldn't it? The Playstation 4 has the larger install base.
Click to expand...

When you say "the correlation has been perfect" how closely have you looked at it?

Are you just referring to PS4 > Xbox One....or every hardware platform...or every major software release?

There have been instances (like Call of Duty: Ghosts) where the Xbox One version has outsold the PS4 version.

It's not automatically a given that the PS4 version will sell better 100% of the time.
 
S

SteveMcqwark

Banned
SwiftDeath said:
Fifa?
Click to expand...

In NA Xbox has the bundle and promotion. Even if the ps4 ver sells more it wont be something that makes the ps4 move significant consoles over the XO.

The bad press and reviews clear show in stores, nit selling out like it was near launch for Destiny.

If the PS4 wins I dont think it will be 210-460 as people are predicting, but none of us have the numbers so screw it.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Vita means life finished at US retail

SteveMcqwark said:
In NA Xbox has the bundle and promotion. Even if the ps4 ver sells more it wont be something that makes the ps4 move significant consoles over the XO.
Click to expand...

As did Madden and still managed to sell more on PS4 versus XB1 All SKUs for August

You stated that all PS4 had in September was Destiny, I corrected you in that it also had Fifa. As to what effect the game will have on both consoles sales I made no assumption simply stating that PS4 had more than simply Destiny.

SteveMcqwark said:
The bad press and reviews clear show in stores, nit selling out like it was near launch for Destiny.
Click to expand...

Fifa will sell fine and will sell more than Destiny did almost assuredly [I am of course talking of the software itself not of what hardware each software managed to sell]

SteveMcqwark said:
If the PS4 wins I dont think it will be 210-460 as people are predicting, but none of us have the numbers so screw it.
Click to expand...

It just seems entirely unlikely that of all the months so far in 2014 that the XB1 would sell more than the PS4, the first [and perhaps only month] would be September during Destiny's launch. Seems the least likely outcome by quite a bit
 
S

SteveMcqwark

Banned
SwiftDeath said:
Vita means life finished at US retail



As did Madden and still managed to sell more on PS4 versus XB1 All SKUs for August

You stated that all PS4 had in September was Destiny, I corrected you in that it also had Fifa. As to what effect the game will have on both consoles sales I made no assumption simply stating that PS4 had more than simply Destiny.



Fifa will sell fine and will sell more than Destiny did almost assuredly [I am of course talking of the software itself not of what hardware each software managed to sell]



It just seems entirely unlikely that of all the months so far in 2014 that the XB1 would sell more than the PS4, the first [and perhaps only month] would be September during Destiny's launch. Seems the least likely outcome by quite a bit
Click to expand...

Huh? What about Oct and November?

Anyway, even if I agree with you, I don't think the gap will be 250k+ but I understand why you dont believe XO will outsold this month, Im just going off what I have seen (oh and theres a mcdonalds promotion as well. For the NFL.
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
SteveMcqwark said:
Huh? What about Oct and November?

Anyway, even if I agree with you, I don't think the gap will be 250k+ but I understand why you dont believe XO will outsold this month, Im just going off what I have seen (oh and theres a mcdonalds promotion as well. For the NFL.
Click to expand...

You do know the PS4 sales for September include several month of white PS4s all counting in one month on top of the standard SKU, right? What that will all add up to, who knows, but a 250 or so lead certainly could happen.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
SteveMcqwark said:
Huh? What about Oct and November?
Click to expand...

I was talking thus far. That in the first 9 months of 2014 which have already been tracked by NPD, September would somehow be the month that XB1 finally outsells PS4, not Titanfall month with the bundle, not kinectless bundle month, not madden kinectless bundle month but September when PS4 finally gets a bundle. Seems unlikely September would be the month to break the sales streak of the PS4 in the US

I have always believed that October and November would be the best chances MS has at winning a month in NPD. Now I pretty much just think November is their best shot as Sunset Overdrive while it looks great will probably open smaller than I was expecting and Evolve was delayed until 2015 so the XB1 co-marketing won't benefit them thus October doesn't seem too strong a month for XB1 particularly

SteveMcqwark said:
Anyway, even if I agree with you, I don't think the gap will be 250k+ but I understand why you dont believe XO will outsold this month, Im just going off what I have seen (oh and theres a mcdonalds promotion as well. For the NFL.
Click to expand...

Yeah I can see why someone might think the gap is going to be smaller than most posters have suggested. Higher than 250k actually sounds a bit unlikely to me as well

I'm more in the 125k - 175k camp myself for the gap this month
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Famitsu Sales: 10/3/22 – 10/9/22 | NieR: Automata for Switch opens at 30,218 retail sales (and consoles a bit ehh)
Sales-Age
18
2K
Rykan replied
Famitsu Sales: 9/26/22 – 10/2/22
Sales-Age
25
2K
Captain Toad replied
Cyberpunk 2077 2.0: Phantom Liberty | PC/Console Performance|Screenshots
10 11 12 13 14
673
50K
Gaiff replied
Famitsu Sales: 1/30/23 – 2/5/23 | PlayStation 5 sells 93,026 units.
2
89
5K
kazuyamishima replied
Famitsu Sales: 12/12/22 – 12/18/22 | Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion opens at 156,530 retail copies sold.
Sales-Age 2
56
4K
jroc74 replied
Top Bottom