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August 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 9th

Ghost_Messiah

Ghost_Messiah

Member
plasmawave said:
NPD is out today?
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I was caught off guard too dude. It's out tonight around 11pm GMT so about an hour and forty minutes from now. That's just the standard basic sales results and PR though. We'll get the numbers from either Aqua and Cream sometime in the early hours of tomorrow morning hopefully (GMT time zone that is).

At 11pm we should know whether PS4 won the month or not at the very least though.
 
3

3rdamention

Member
darkside31337 said:
Aw too late to make the predictions.

Really think XB1 will outsell PS4 this month. Madden bundle (the only relevant game in August) + general sales on the console are going to do more than what most people think.
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We will see, if you are right, that would mean Amazon sales charts would not predict NPD sales order for the first time since these systems were released.....



By looking at the Amazon sales chart, I think you are mistaken this month...
 
H

hawk2025

Member
Does anyone have that handy "Wii versus PS4 versus Xbox One" chart that has the cumulative sales over time tracking?

I recall seeing that the pattern would have the Wii crossing streams with the PS4 soon, but would love to see it again :)


Thanks!
 
K

King Tubby

Member
I don't see the Madden bundle having as much of a great positive effect on XB1 consoles as the Destiny bundle did for PS4 consoles. Everyone knows that Madden always releases on both Sony and MS and is essentially the same between the two platforms, while the less informed consumer may not know that Destiny releases on XB1 as well, or does know but values the PS4 exclusive content and takes the marketing as a sign of substantial superiority on the Sony platform.

I know the Destiny bundle isn't being counted in this August's NPD, of course. I'm outlining why I don't think the Madden bundle would be enough of a gamechanger to vault XB1 over PS4.
 
I

IndoAssassin

Banned
I have a hypothetical question.

MS stated they have 1 billion dollars to invest in new ip's and exclusive games this gen. They will be spending 2 billion dollars on Mojang.

If MS were to be outsold in every country by the end of this gen, or the start of the next gen, will MS be as willing to spend as much money on games for their next console?
 
L

Lemondish

Member
IndoAssassin said:
I have a hypothetical question.

MS stated they have 1 billion dollars to invest in new ip's and exclusive games this gen. They will be spending 2 billion dollars on Mojang.

If MS were to be outsold in every country by the end of this gen, or the start of the next gen, will MS be as willing to spend as much money on games for their next gen?
Click to expand...

Wait, this mojang stuff is confirmed? Last I heard it was only one unnamed source talking to WSJ, of all places.
 
C

Chris1

Member
WaffleTaco said:
The PS4 will absolutely demolish Xbone in September, the real fun IMO is months Novemember and December, basically holiday season, which if I had to guess would be when most people buy consoles.

I am assuming Madden did not help that much.
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Not so sure about that now with all the free game deals going on. I reckon PS4 might still win but I don't think it's going to be a demolishing.
 
Ghost_Messiah

Ghost_Messiah

Member
IndoAssassin said:
I have a hypothetical question.

MS stated they have 1 billion dollars to invest in new ip's and exclusive games this gen. They will be spending 2 billion dollars on Mojang.

If MS were to be outsold in every country by the end of this gen, or the start of the next gen, will MS be as willing to spend as much money on games for their next console?
Click to expand...

Interesting question. I think however the more interesting question is whether there is even going to be an Xbox next gen. Microsoft somehow miraculously managed to lose all of the ground they made with the 360 with the Xbox One's mistakes to the point that they're now locked in second place with little chance of successfully competing with Sony to take the number one position again. I have a feeling Microsoft executives might look at the Xbox business in a different light at the end of this generation and see all the billions poured into what is at the moment essentially a money sink for the company.

You compare Xbox to the company's other much more successful enterprises like Windows and Office and those products see a reliable and constant exceptionally high return on investment. Microsoft throws substantial amounts of cash at Xbox and at the moment isn't seeing much of a return. Had this generation began differently with the Xbox One matching the PS4 I don't think this would be an issue. At the moment though they're losing and losing hard and it makes me wonder whether the higher ups at Microsoft will want to continue to invest in Xbox a fourth time round.

We see rumours that Microsoft might be ending Xbox every other month or so. No smoke without fire.
 
S

Steroyd

Member
IndoAssassin said:
I have a hypothetical question.

MS stated they have 1 billion dollars to invest in new ip's and exclusive games this gen. They will be spending 2 billion dollars on Mojang.

If MS were to be outsold in every country by the end of this gen, or the start of the next gen, will MS be as willing to spend as much money on games for their next console?
Click to expand...

Ideally in that situation, they'd spend money more wisely and efficiently than bludgeoning everything with a big fat oversized money club.
 
S

spatenfloot

Member
Chris1 said:
Not so sure about that now with all the free game deals going on. I reckon PS4 might still win but I don't think it's going to be a demolishing.
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Sure it will. All those months of preorders get counted for September and it was topping the charts during those months. If the free game promotion was going to come close to that, we would've been hearing about sold out retailers everywhere.
 
E

emrober5

Member
Chris1 said:
Not so sure about that now with all the free game deals going on. I reckon PS4 might still win but I don't think it's going to be a demolishing.
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Destiny bundle has been a huge seller for MONTHS on amazon. All those sales go in to September. Ps4 could double (or more) xbox one in September. If the white bundle hadn't been such a hit I would agree with you, but its going to be a massacre.
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Halo is xbox's only chance to outsell PS4 IMO. PS4 doesn't have anything first party to compete - as much as I love LBP it ain't fighting Halo :p and I expect insane Black Friday deals from MS

But that is in isolation. The traditional ramp up of Q4 will be in full swing by then so the momentum may factor against XBox
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
emrober5 said:
Destiny bundle has been a huge seller for MONTHS on amazon. All those sales go in to September. Ps4 could double (or more) xbox one in September. If the white bundle hadn't been such a hit I would agree with you, but its going to be a massacre.
Click to expand...

Which might soften August sales as people push their purchases into September for the bundle? I agree September is sony's in the bag, but that might make it close this month.
 
W

WaffleTaco

Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
Ghost_Messiah said:
Yeah. Completely agree. The deal Sony have with Destiny is very similar to the deal Microsoft has with Call of Duty and if we use the latter as an example for comparison Call of Duty always sold better on the 360 throughout the entirety of the last generation. Destiny's not exclusive to PlayStation by any means but it's the closest you can get to exclusivity to ensure sales are marginally higher on your console. Sony has pushed Destiny hard from the very beginning with the content deals and promoting the game at events like E3 and I think all of that energy and effort is going to pay dividends with Destiny selling much more on the PS4.

I'd even go so far as to say the split will be 60/40 or potentially even 70/30 in favour of PlayStation.
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From what I recall Watch_Dogs was a 60/40 split for PS4 if I remember correctly, and it has continued to sell on Amazon as mainly as a PS4 game for the past two months. I think 60/40 would be a good estimate for Destiny, but it is possible that it could be 70/30. Right now there's no way to guess, but I assume a PR piece will announce something next week.
 
C

Chris1

Member
spatenfloot said:
Sure it will. All those months of preorders get counted for September and it was topping the charts during those months. If the free game promotion was going to come close to that, we would've been hearing about sold out retailers everywhere.
Click to expand...
Wasn't amazon sold out of the madden bundle a few days ago? Only one retailer I know, but still.

You may have a point about the months of pre orders though, but I can still see the Xbox doing extremely well in September and surprising some people.

I guess it just really depends what you consider a demolishing though, if MS manages to keep it under 2:1 I'd say they have done pretty well.
 
Ghost_Messiah

Ghost_Messiah

Member
SwiftDeath said:
Time until PR usually comes out

t1410474600z1.png
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Just under an hour and a half to go! For some reason I'm super excited for tonight's numbers. The NPD threads always move blazingly fast and are reliably entertaining. Hopefully Aqua or Cream will come through with the numbers too later on tonight.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
cakely said:
I looked at the 2014 about one week ago and the Destiny PS4 bundle was at #85.

Crazy.
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Can you check again because it is now showing that it toped the Titanfall Bundle... #41.

It just happened between my and your post.... the ranking got updated.
 
G

gtj1092

Member
ethomaz said:
Can you check again because it is now showing that it toped the Titanfall Bundle... #41.

It just happened between my and your post.... the ranking got updated.
Click to expand...

I remember it being 85 too a week or so ago. Don't know how to look back by week.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Jimmyfenix said:
A little OT but i like number 35 on amazon Canada best seller list at the moment.
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theprodigy said:
lol

however I do see Alpha Sapphire>Omega Ruby, Canada has good taste

edit: why do I get the feeling nobody uses Amazon Canada based on some of these rankings
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Amazon Canada's Yearly Videogame bestsellers charts has a ridiculous #1

http://www.amazon.ca/gp/bestsellers/2014/videogames/?tag=viglink20241-20#1

So yeah I'm pretty sure we're seeing weird behavior patterns there likely due to Amazon CA representing an even smaller portion of Canadian Videogame retail sales than the US Amazon does
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
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