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September 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14th

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TypuyBaran

Banned
After a year of listening to how ms has no chance, they are done, close Xbox division etc. I can't help but wonder why it's an all nothing proposition with folks. So if ps4 at the end of this gen sells 90mil units and ms 60mil and both turn a profit why are so many folks concerned with who wins the gen?

I don't get it...
 
M

Miles X

Member
TypuyBaran said:
After a year of listening to how ms has no chance, they are done, close Xbox division etc. I can't help but wonder why it's an all nothing proposition with folks. So if ps4 at the end of this gen sells 90mil units and ms 60mil and both turn a profit why are so many folks concerned with who wins the gen?

I don't get it...
Click to expand...

Same, lots of tunnel vision going on. XB1 will still be a success if MS sell a good amount of system (50m+) make a profit and provide some amazing games.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Beysus said:
What's stopping Sony from coming with great holiday deals as well? Are holiday deals MS exclusive?

I don't understand the people who talk as if only MS are going to benefit from the holiday boost.
Click to expand...

When did I ever say that though? I said in my previous post that Sony will more than likely have deals too. The Xbox One though has COD marketing on top of Halo MMC and those two games alone will attract many who are still playing on the 360. That being more attractive to that group than the PS4 though all depends on what deals MS create for their system (which is what I've always said).
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Abdiel said:
Also, the MCC has a lot of preorders, it's going to be a great seller, but I've stated this before... from all the discussion I've had with customers, these are coming from people that already own the system, they've bought it at launch, or picked it up around the Titanfall hype, grabbed it on one of the big sales. It's been a very very small percentage of people hyped about the MCC that said they'll be picking up the system when that game drops. Which honestly doesn't surprise me, because the Halo fanbase by and large knew what system they'd need for the next generation of Halo.
Click to expand...

The game comes out in November so that doesn't suprise me much. Wouldn't make sense to me to buy an Xbox One now solely for Halo MCC -- especially when you have the $400 free game bundles coming out soon (like Sunset Overdrive bundle). If you are pre-ordering the game now (months in advance) then you more than likely already have the system.
 
M

Miles X

Member
jcm said:
The person who took the time to create this thread is now an everybody-gets-a-trophy type?
Click to expand...

What has that got to do with my post? I never said PS3 was a failure because it was like 1% behind X360 sales. Next time try harder.

Edit - and at the bolded, I said if MS managed to make 50m~, make a profit ect. there are certainly losers in this industry.
 
J

jcm

Member
Dynopia said:
What has that got to do with my post? I never said PS3 was a failure because it was like 1% behind X360 sales. Next time try harder.

Edit - and at the bolded, I said if MS managed to make 50m~, make a profit ect. there are certainly losers in this industry.
Click to expand...

Hmm, seems to me the entire point of your discussion was trying to determine whether or not the PS3 had passed the 360. Now your wondering why people are concerned with who wins the gen?
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
I don't get how so many are predicting the Xbone to be within 100k of the PS4. Are they forgetting the months of white PS4's counting in this month or do they think the Xbone would have outsold the PS4 without all those white PS4 bundles counting for September? Or is it something else? I'm genuinely curious.
 
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spatenfloot

Member
TypuyBaran said:
After a year of listening to how ms has no chance, they are done, close Xbox division etc. I can't help but wonder why it's an all nothing proposition with folks. So if ps4 at the end of this gen sells 90mil units and ms 60mil and both turn a profit why are so many folks concerned with who wins the gen?

I don't get it...
Click to expand...
Well, considering that MS hasn't yet confirmed that they have sold 5 million to customers yet, it is a big assumption to say they will sell 60 million.
 
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theprodigy

Member
spatenfloot said:
Well, considering that MS hasn't yet confirmed that they have sold 5 million to customers yet, it is a big assumption to say they will sell 60 million.
Click to expand...

They almost certainly have by this point, but they gain absolutely nothing by announcing they're super behind Sony.
 
D

Dragonborn

Member
theprodigy said:
They almost certainly have by this point, but they gain absolutely nothing by announcing they're super behind Sony.
Click to expand...

They probably have, but the question is by how much? I don't think they're anywhere near 6 million yet. Maybe, at best, a little over 5.5.

I don't get how people see it doing 50 million plus+ lifetime, where would all those extra sales come from?
 
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theprodigy

Member
Dragonborn said:
They probably have, but the question is by how much? I don't think they're anywhere near 6 million yet. Maybe, at best, a little over 5.5.

I don't get how people see it doing 50 million plus+ lifetime, where would all those extra sales come from?
Click to expand...

assuming it didn't somehow tank in September, it should be easily above 5.5m (but closer to that then to 6 million)

but yeah I'm not seeing 50 million LTD either


also I think jvm is confused with his predictions, come on man :p
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
jvm said:
[PS4] 260K
[XB1] 220K
[3DS] 140K
[WIU] 80K
[360] 60K
[PS3] 32K
Click to expand...

The PS4 sold 237.5K last month, adjusted for 5 weeks. From retail indications we've seen more than a 9.47% net increase.

So, I feel like a net 22.5K bump from the Destiny PS4 bundle is unrealistic.

What are your justifications for such a low MOM increase?
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
TypuyBaran said:
After a year of listening to how ms has no chance, they are done, close Xbox division etc. I can't help but wonder why it's an all nothing proposition with folks. So if ps4 at the end of this gen sells 90mil units and ms 60mil and both turn a profit why are so many folks concerned with who wins the gen?

I don't get it...
Click to expand...

Dynopia said:
Same, lots of tunnel vision going on. XB1 will still be a success if MS sell a good amount of system (50m+) make a profit and provide some amazing games.
Click to expand...

Define "turn/make a profit"? A profit on top of covering all marketing, R&D, game production/exclusivity deals as well as all the deals they've been doing? A profit on top of all of that plus on top of the opportunity cost for what MS could potentially have been trying instead of the XB1?

These businesses are in fact businesses. Sony could very well likely make a "profit" on each vita hardware that is still sold considering their general conservative approach to price drops and cost of memory cards but the product is clearly an abject failure commercially which in no way will meet Sony's sales expectations that elicited creation of the thing, not to mention the opportunity cost of what all that money could've gone to instead. Now the XB1 isn't selling like the Vita, it will easily surpass it's LTD and sell multiple times it but that doesn't somehow magically assure MS will see the XB1 as a success. They'll have their own internal metrics for return on investment that if not met will classify the project as unsuccessful. The only look we've potentially had into MS's internal expectations for the XB1 come from Mehdi's silly statement about "up to a billion next-gen systems sold this gen!" where at bare minimum MS expected similar overall numbers for all consoles as last gen so I somehow doubt a drop of 40% at least in overall sales gen over gen is going to be held as a roaring success from MS's perspective. Furthermore we have MS's Germany expectations of "increasing their market share to 40% within a year", while clearly the reverse happened with the brand decreasing marketshare at a rapid pace.

I don't think XB1 as a commercial product will be an abject failure per se but I don't see how selling 50M units is going to be heralded as a success in their 3rd generation on the market directly after the success of the 360.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
September 23, so that is release week. Wouldn't be shocked if Fifa sold more release week. Fifa game sales are decent in the USA. Destiny will crush it for the month though.
 
A

A_Gorilla

Banned
plop said:
They've been gaining a lot of positive word of mouth, advertising like mad, gave away free games with purchase, and have some major exclusives coming up.
Click to expand...

And all of that applies to the PS4 as well (more so in regards to the good word of mouth)

So how exactly does that give the XB1 the edge?
 
M

Miles X

Member
jcm said:
Hmm, seems to me the entire point of your discussion was trying to determine whether or not the PS3 had passed the 360. Now your wondering why people are concerned with who wins the gen?
Click to expand...

No, it wasn't. And yet again you miss the point. (did you even read that guys post ...) it's not about talking about who could/will win, it's about suggesting second place is shit and a complete failure.

spatenfloot said:
Well, considering that MS hasn't yet confirmed that they have sold 5 million to customers yet, it is a big assumption to say they will sell 60 million.
Click to expand...

Do you honestly think they're not past 5m yet?
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Dynopia said:
Do you honestly think they're not past 5m yet?
Click to expand...

they will essentially need to rely heavily on the us and only parts of europe, where the system is floundering apparently.

question is, is declining from 85m consoles to 50m consoles going to be enough for a fourth xbox? if microsoft was willing to go all scorched earth on the standard model at the start of this gen, i can't imagine them wanting to stick around with a declining audience.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
stryke said:
I can't fathom how PS4 can do less than 300k.
Click to expand...

On Demand said:
That would be absolutely terrible for both Sony and MS. Surely you're just being modest?
Click to expand...

Aquamarine said:
The PS4 sold 237.5K last month, adjusted for 5 weeks. From retail indications we've seen more than a 9.47% net increase.

So, I feel like a net 22.5K bump from the Destiny PS4 bundle is unrealistic.

What are your justifications for such a low MOM increase?
Click to expand...
Thanks all. I'm feeling pessimistic. I'm permitted that, no? :)
 
D

donny2112

Member
N.Domixis said:
[PS4] 502.334k
[PS3] 37.001k
[3DS] 142.12k
[WIU] 65.34k
[360] 71.12678k
[XB1] 253.1223k
Click to expand...

No decimal points for the predictions, please. :p

jcm said:
Hmm, seems to me the entire point of your discussion was trying to determine whether or not the PS3 had passed the 360.
Click to expand...

That thread was a rebuttal to another thread that was using extremely faulty logic to try to determine the PS3 total sales. At the time, I took it as an attempt to try to shout down the crowd in the first thread (since no one seemed to be paying attention to the explanations in the first thread) who were all following the same faulty logic to come to their conclusions.
 
O

Oddduck

Member
Just curious why so many people have Wii U at 80-90k.

I'm looking at Aquamarine's post in last month's npd results thread, and Wii U did less than 67k in last month's NPD.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=129599777&postcount=1301

Lower than 70K...lower than 67K...this is like a limbo game...how low can Wii U go?

It's lower than last month's 81K, it's lower than the previous month's 140K, etc...

It's just a deflating balloon as Mario Kart 8 fades from relevance.
Click to expand...

So I have to wonder.

Are people assuming that Hyrule Warriors will give Wii U hardware a bump in sales to 80k-90k sales?
 
T

Ty4on

Member
Oddduck said:
[...]
So I have to wonder.

Are people assuming that Hyrule Warriors will give Wii U hardware a bump in sales to 80k-90k sales?
Click to expand...
The bump isn't that big when you consider that September is a 5 week month so with the same weekly sales as last it would sell 74k.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Dynopia said:
Do you honestly think they're not past 5m yet?
Click to expand...

They are most certainly passed 5 million at this point. US LTD is at 3,207,000, and with Xbox One reaching >3,000,000 by Dec 31, 2013, that adds an extra 1,183,000 from ROTW 2013 to the numbers to equal 4,390,000. Assuming a similar ratio between US and ROTW sales for 2014, that would bring the number to >5,000,000.

That's just as of August NPD though, so it doesn't include September NPD and tier 2 launch.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
stryke said:
We're not denying you that. We're just interested in your reasoning.
Click to expand...
I feel like sales have been weaker in UK than I'd have expected and I think it may give an indication that US market was more muted than current GAF enthusiasm would lead one to expect.
 
J

jcm

Member
Dynopia said:
No, it wasn't. And yet again you miss the point. (did you even read that guys post ...) it's not about talking about who could/will win, it's about suggesting second place is shit and a complete failure.
Click to expand...

I think I did a poor job writing my posts. I was going for gently-poking-fun, but I think I came across as asshole-playing-gotcha. Sorry about that.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Oddduck said:
Just curious why so many people have Wii U at 80-90k.

I'm looking at Aquamarine's post in last month's npd results thread, and Wii U did less than 67k in last month's NPD.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=129599777&postcount=1301



So I have to wonder.

Are people assuming that Hyrule Warriors will give Wii U hardware a bump in sales to 80k-90k sales?
Click to expand...

Wii U did ~59.5k, with no change at all it would be 74.4k in a 5-week month, and some people are putting a Hyrule Warriors bump

jvm said:
I feel like sales have been weaker in UK than I'd have expected and I think it may give an indication that US market was more muted than current GAF enthusiasm would lead one to expect.
Click to expand...

has it really though? sales jumped a lot for both systems the week of Destiny's launch (it was like what, 4x for PS4 and XB1 actually got a pretty big boost itself?)


also I swear there were so many premature "PS3 passed 360" threads
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
theprodigy said:
Wii U did ~59.5k, with no change at all it would be 74.4k in a 5-week month, and some people are putting a Hyrule Warriors bump
Click to expand...
I think people are neglecting to consider the subsiding effect of MK8 though.

It had a ~30K weekly average the first full month of MK8 sales. It dropped to ~20K in July. Under 15K in August.

Whatever [negligible] effect of HW, I imagine it would be cancelled out by this.

Coupled with notable software coming out on the other platforms and not on Wii U, which again reinforces consumer perceptions of risk of obsolescence.

But then Wii U tends to F up my predictions every month so who knows.
 
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