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[Sho_Nuff82]

I actually agree with those that say the most reasonable explanation for PS4 sales trumping Xbox One sales is that the PS4 is a more compelling platform for consumers.

However, I'm not sure everyone who is saying this is thinking this through entirely. For instance, one could make the reasonable argument that this means iOS is an even more compelling platform than the PS4 is, Using the same reasoning, one would have to conclude that the Wii was simply a better platform than the PS3 or Xbox 360 were.

I actually agree with those statements, but I suspect a lot of people are going to be inconsistent and only use this reasoning when it suits their platform preferences. The Wii's sales were driven by hype, but the PS4's sales are truly deserved. The Xbox One is selling poorly because it's just a mediocre platform, but Vita sales are low because people just don't understand how awesome the platform is. DS sales were amazing because the platform was amazing, but iOS sales are amazing because people buy anything Apple makes like sheep.

Not everyone will fall in to this trap, of course, but I suspect a lot do. When something you like sells well, it's because it's deserved, and the free market works. When something you don't like sells well, it's all hype and fluff and people are being brainwashed.

I think the most logically consistent explanation for the PS4 outselling the XboxOne in the territories where the 360 outsold the PS3 are that the PS4 was cheaper at launch, had the positive mindshare of having better multiplats, and the positive publicity of having exclusive marketing deals for huge releases like Watch_Dogs and Destiny. Even after the PS3 dropped down to an equal or lower ASP than the 360 and eventually closed the gap on multiplatform games, it didn't matter, because consumers had already made up their minds. MS made the mistake of believing that the 360 fanbase was made of people loyal to their brand, rather than people loyal to what their brand had previously embodied (high end graphics and superior online play at competitive prices).

The Xbox One isn't doing nearly as poorly as the PS3, but it is currently in some grey area between it and the 360 in NA. I think that not having a true Gears or Halo sequel for this fall will really hurt its trajectory going into next year (I'm as excited as anyone for MCC, but remakes gonna remake). And they have the added bonus of every multiplat they advertise working against them, as it simply makes the PS4 more desirable.

The console will end up with tons of good games and multiplats are selling well enough that it won't lose support, but dreams of winning the online sales wars are pretty much over barring a miracle.

 

[timkunedo]

that pachter damage control is funny! He mad.
Has the dude ever been right???

 

[jelly]

Mere profitability is not enough and is not the goal in and of itself. The goal is high margin profitability. With their core products, Microsoft have 90% margins (Windows, Office, Enterprise), and a stranglehold on the marketplace. Consumer Electronics on the other hand, struggle to get about 10% margins and that is no where good enough.

Mattrick's plan would have given them a stranglehold and those high margins. An Xbox with a cut of all software, yearly memberships, and extensive Kinect-fueled biometrics for advertising would have been a goldmine if the competition had been the Wii U and a 2013 version of launch PS3. But Cerny's PS4 is a great console and so the Xbox division is in a hard spot: how to justify their exsistence within Microsoft given MS expectations?

Spencer's moves--such as buying Tomb Raider/TitanFall exclusivity, getting rid of Kinect, packing-in games, adding Games-with-Gold, and buying Gears of War IP--do nothing to get Xbox into the high margins. In fact, they all reduce margins. IMO, his mandate for his first year is nothing more than damage control. At best, he is going to do what Sony did with the PS3 in its first 18+ months, i.e. making the console into a product that isn't actively repulsive. Which leads to the question: what are they planning next?

The big push for MS before SN became CEO was 'one microsoft', wherein every division was supposed to work with every other division and create seamless products in a walled garden. I believe that this is still their goal, and SN is just the guy to make that into a reality.

MS would not make Windows 10 free for Windows 8 users and give away the mobile version without a solid plan for monetizing users. As such, MS' next big push is undoubtedly going to be getting people to use the Windows store 100% of the time. The easiest way of doing that in Windows is by doing what Apple does with OSX. In OSX a user cannot add software that hasn't been downloaded from the Apple store without toggling a hidden setting. Without that toggle, OSX puts up an ominous warning screen that adding software from untrusted sites will lead to ruination. This, in effect, forces all software through Apple for regular users who will never change hidden settings.

Their phones and RT tablets already force Windows Store use, which why they give that OS away. So, Xbox will have to do the same. But like Win10, it will have to be done in such a way that doesn't get gamer ire up, i.e. you will still have to be able to buy discs and used games.

So what might they do to get Xbox into the One Microsoft vision? My answer would be Minecraft + integration. The next version of Minecraft is undoubtedly going to be for MS products only and only available on the MS store. This is going to push tens of millions into the MS tablet-desktop-phone-xbox ecosystem. After that, they can make moves to get games like AC moving through the store on PC as well as X1 through crossplay and remote play on tablets if the user has purchased the product from MS store. An integrated X1 that pushes people into the overall ecosystem is a justified high margin x1.

In this scenario, MS wins, xbox division wins, and consumers end up with interoperable products that are very appealing.

Good points about the margins. The ad money with Kinect was next level gold mine, always online, always profiling and engaging with ads. Getting a cut of all content. That was even before Xbox Live Gold. The dream was so good, they couldn't see a thing wrong with it.

A main goal is subscription.

Subscribe to Office
Subscribe to Xbox
Subscribe to Windows
Subscribe to Azure 'Cloud'
Subscribe to Skype

That's frightening and they've had success with it to only keep going. Less ownership. Sounds horrible.

 

[bishoptl]

So much bitter salt and stealth trolling.

BISHOPTL, WHY HAVE YOU FORSAKEN US?!

Sitting in IRC, drinking beer and laughing it up

why?

Shouldn't Patch be a "banned" source of news in the forum? At least regarding his "predictions".

Pachter owns your souls and if we meet up at GDC I'll buy him a beer. God-tier trolling on his part and amazing self-promotion. Take notes.

 

[Servbot24]

Hopefully this puts an end to all those who wonder why ps4 is selling so well. A third party game made the ps4 sell this much!

And a ton of promising 1st party games coming up. If you wanted to buy Destiny didn't hurt to jump in now.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Pachter owns your souls and if we meet up at GDC I'll buy him a beer. God-tier trolling on his part and amazing self-promotion. Take notes.

I scribbled it on a napkin...

Meh, I'm sure I'll remember.

 

[Servbot24]

Can't tell if Pachter is trolling or if GAF is just pathetically desperate to cling to every word that comes out of his mouth.

 

[Aaron D.]

When something you like sells well, it's because it's deserved, and the free market works. When something you don't like sells well, it's all hype and fluff and people are being brainwashed.

This is about as succinct as I've ever seen fanboy rage-wars described. You can sub in high and low review scores into that equation as well.

 

[Biker19]

Mere profitability is not enough and is not the goal in and of itself. The goal is high margin profitability. With their core products, Microsoft have 90% margins (Windows, Office, Enterprise), and a stranglehold on the marketplace. Consumer Electronics on the other hand, struggle to get about 10% margins and that is no where good enough.

Mattrick's plan would have given them a stranglehold and those high margins. An Xbox with a cut of all software, yearly memberships, and extensive Kinect-fueled biometrics for advertising would have been a goldmine if the competition had been the Wii U and a 2013 version of launch PS3. But Cerny's PS4 is a great console and so the Xbox division is in a hard spot: how to justify their exsistence within Microsoft given MS expectations?

Spencer's moves--such as buying Tomb Raider/TitanFall exclusivity, getting rid of Kinect, packing-in games, adding Games-with-Gold, and buying Gears of War IP--do nothing to get Xbox into the high margins. In fact, they all reduce margins. IMO, his mandate for his first year is nothing more than damage control. At best, he is going to do what Sony did with the PS3 in its first 18+ months, i.e. making the console into a product that isn't actively repulsive. Which leads to the question: what are they planning next?

The big push for MS before SN became CEO was 'one microsoft', wherein every division was supposed to work with every other division and create seamless products in a walled garden. I believe that this is still their goal, and SN is just the guy to make that into a reality.

MS would not make Windows 10 free for Windows 8 users and give away the mobile version without a solid plan for monetizing users. As such, MS' next big push is undoubtedly going to be getting people to use the Windows store 100% of the time. The easiest way of doing that in Windows is by doing what Apple does with OSX. In OSX a user cannot add software that hasn't been downloaded from the Apple store without toggling a hidden setting. Without that toggle, OSX puts up an ominous warning screen that adding software from untrusted sites will lead to ruination. This, in effect, forces all software through Apple for regular users who will never change hidden settings.

Their phones and RT tablets already force Windows Store use, which why they give that OS away. So, Xbox will have to do the same. But like Win10, it will have to be done in such a way that doesn't get gamer ire up, i.e. you will still have to be able to buy discs and used games.

So what might they do to get Xbox into the One Microsoft vision? My answer would be Minecraft + integration. The next version of Minecraft is undoubtedly going to be for MS products only and only available on the MS store. This is going to push tens of millions into the MS tablet-desktop-phone-xbox ecosystem. After that, they can make moves to get games like AC moving through the store on PC as well as X1 through crossplay and remote play on tablets if the user has purchased the product from MS store. An integrated X1 that pushes people into the overall ecosystem is a justified high margin x1.

In this scenario, MS wins, xbox division wins, and consumers end up with interoperable products that are very appealing.

This is exactly why I bounced from 360 since E3 2010 & only use it for multiplats while also having a PS3...because they were all about Kinect & Media while only having Halo, Gears, & Forza (& sometimes Fable) as exclusives.

The rest of what you mentioned, sounds like a horrible future altogether.

This is goddamn scary future for me as I'm a PC and PS4 player. I hope there's international laws that can stop this kind of monopolization. Microsoft is an evil corporation and I do not want to support them any further apart from the obvious Windows OS.

This is a good post, but a scary one too. Microsoft is all about control, even when it infringes upon consumer rights and freedoms. I can definitely see them using Minecraft as a weapon to attempt to garner marketshare, they didn't buy the franchise just because they were bored. But your prediction is a bit too rosy IMHO.

Some of the biggest reasons why Minecraft has been the success it has been are:

1. It's a cheap game price wise
2. It's available on a plethora of platforms
3. Free online multiplayer
4. Media / friend hype and attention
5. Free updates, buy the game once and all new content is yours free
6. Mods

A Minecraft 2 exclusive to Microsoft products will immediately appeal to a much smaller fraction of the current Minecraft base of 55 million. I don't think tens of millions of people pushed into the MS store by Minecraft 2 is realistic. MS is going to get greedy and hurt the brand's value if they do what you are suggesting. Which is probably exactly what will happen, looking at their track record of late.

No, of course not, they own the IP now. I am saying that MS is not generally a consumer friendly corporation, and they usually try their best to force things onto the consumers that are not value added for anyone but MS. If not for the backlash we would now have an online only Xbox One where all games are digital only with a mandatory Kinect. No one but MS wanted that, an they only wanted it to enact a form of control over both the consumers and developers.

And that is why they are where they are now.

Will they learn from the market and their own mistakes? Or will they do what Bunny said above and try yet again to control and funnel the market along their own roads?

I definitely agree. Now everyone is starting to see why I despise MS in the gaming industry.

 

[Dragonborn]

Can't tell if Pachter is trolling or if GAF is just pathetically desperate to cling to every word that comes out of his mouth.

I'm very sure he was trolling. He gets console sales predictions wrong, but never that off. Plus, look at all the attention it got him. Mission accomplished.

 

[ironcreed]

You mean the PS4 continues to be a juggernaut? Who would have thought? Well, I guess not Pachter.

 

[MiamiWesker]

This thread is huge. Is there a summary post of whatever numbers we got?

 

[Version 3.0]

Now, that's certainly lower than the PS4, but that system comparatively has the second best September ever.

Nitpicking, but the PS4's number isn't the 2nd best September ever. The PS1 in 1999 was higher, and so was the Dreamcast (that was its launch month). And, of course, the Wii had a better one in 2008, which is what I assume you were referring to.

Still an excellent number for the PS4, though. And there's nothing wrong with the Xbox One's number, either. It's better than some of the PS2's years right in the middle of its life.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Catching up with the thread FH2 numbers are bad .
Going to be interesting to see how DC does and DD effect could be higher than normal .
Really wish we had DD sales.

 

[popeutlal]

How low did Wii U sell, any numbers yet?

 

[QaaQer]

The appeal of another "store" to buy into is questionable. IOS and Android are the new operating systems for mobile and in general. Microsoft has an uphill battle. Same goes for their tablets.

no doubt.

There is a reason the Office tools are going cloud based and are ported to Android and IOS. Less and less people each day need the Microsoft OS... for anything.

again, agreed.

I seriously doubt Nadella is going to make Minecraft exclusive.

Not minecraft, Mincraft 2.

Their mantra is now "mobile first, cloud first." They NEED their services on everything to stay relevant. What they can do is make an appealing service offering that has exclusive content, but they would be better served to have a gulf of content on EVERYTHING. Hopefully Nadella sees this, like he does the MS Office space.

Office has been on Mac since like 1989, it's not some new thing. And they have always treated those users as second class (eg only 5 years support v 10 for windows).

And my theory is just a guess. I suppose they might be working towards getting rid of Windows and not trying to create lock-in via walled garden and offering everything on other people's hardware, OSes, and ecosystems.

 

[Dragonborn]

This thread is huge. Is there a summary post of whatever numbers we got?

No, it's best if you seek out the numbers yourself.

 

[Version 3.0]

God-tier trolling on his part and amazing self-promotion. Take notes.

If he was trolling, then I agree, God-tier. But self-promotion? How is being visibly wrong while thousands of idiots laugh at you good self-promotion?

Unless he was promoting his trolling skills...

Hmm.

 

[Guevara]

On the subject of: "is the Xbox One selling better than the Xbox 360 did?", I made the following chart:

So, yes the Xbox One is still around 800k units ahead of the 360 launch aligned. But by breaking it into periods you can see that the One had a fantastic launch and has since slowed down a bit relative to the 360.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

How do you guys explain Forza Horizon 2? It's very well reviewed.

Good question.

A lot of people were saying Metacritic scores vaguely correlate with sales when it comes to big titles like this.

FH2 had great scores, massive marketing but terrible sales. Wrong time of the year to launch?

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

I'm very sure he was trolling. He gets console sales predictions wrong, but never that off. Plus, look at all the attention it got him. Mission accomplished.

Look at all the attention it got him, sure. He looks pathetically incompetent if he actually advised investors with those PS4 figures.

Or is that the trolling? He didn't actually predict those numbers to investors?

 

[Dragonborn]

no doubt.



again, agreed.



Not minecraft, Mincraft 2.



Office has been on Mac since like 1989, it's not some new thing. And they have always treated those users as second class (eg only 5 years support v 10 for windows).

And my theory is just a guess. I suppose they might be working towards getting rid of Windows and not trying to create lock-in via walled garden and offering everything on other people's hardware, OSes, and ecosystems.

Minecraft 2 being windows exclusive wouldn't help Windows that much, it'd just kill or at least severly damage Minecraft's selling potential

 

[infovore]

... For instance, one could make the reasonable argument that this means iOS is an even more compelling platform than the PS4 is. ...

Disclaimer: I own a PS4 and don't own any iOS devices. That said, I have to agree that iOS (and likely Android) devices are more compelling platforms/ecosystems than PlayStation for most people. It seems likely that Sony agrees as well. Hence PlayStation Certified, which ended a failure, and PlayStation Now as a second attempt at getting their ecosystem embedded in the dominant platforms. (This as opposed to something like making a PlayStation Phone with Sony's own ecosystem as the only source of apps.)

 

[Dante]

 

[Phades]

Megaton!
Vita ~ 20k, B2 bundle ~ 97%

Makes me wish i was reading this yesterday at around 7:30 pm instead of eating dinner.

I doubt that this is a trend change overall, but it feels like an altered beast moment where some supernatural force is making it "rise from its grave".

I bet I missed smokey's after announcement party. The reactions to this will be good when I get to them. I hope I'll also collide with speculation towards the cause and effect for this.

 

[Dragonborn]

Look at all the attention it got him, sure. He looks pathetically incompetent if he actually advised investors with those PS4 figures.

Or is that the trolling? He didn't actually predict those numbers to investors?

Those HW numbers are just for his own entertainment. They're not actually full reports or advisment to investors. His actual reporting is much more thought out and accurate, otherwise he wouldn't get paid as much as he does.

 

[QaaQer]

Good question.

A lot of people were saying Metacritic scores vaguely correlate with sales when it comes to big titles like this.

FH2 had great scores, massive marketing but terrible sales. Wrong time of the year to launch?

They do, at least according people in the industry and our own CosmicQueso.

As far as it translates into actual sales, there are many other factors. In FH2's case, the genre isn't popular in general in the US and that is compounded by the audience on the console skewing towards other types of games.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

JRPGs? Time to invest in a handheld or a mobile, not a ps4.

I expect PS4 will get more rpgs than PS3 now that going port vita games.
In fact i say this gen will be better for jrpgs compare to last gen on consoles .

 

[Version 3.0]

On the subject of: "is the Xbox One selling better than the Xbox 360 did?", I made the following chart:

So, yes the Xbox One is still around 800k units ahead of the 360 launch aligned. But by breaking it into periods you can see that the One had a fantastic launch and has since slowed down a bit relative to the 360.

Good observation. This month will help, though, it beat the 360's equivalent month.

 

[Ol No Bones]

Well there was probably something like 400k PS4 destiny bundles sold and they are not counted in the chart.

Doesn't matter. The PS4 already had a larger install base that would have bought standalone. The bundle wouldn't matter unless people were buying second PS4s. Its possible I guess.

 

[theprodigy]

On the subject of: "is the Xbox One selling better than the Xbox 360 did?", I made the following chart:

So, yes the Xbox One is still around 800k units ahead of the 360 launch aligned. But by breaking it into periods you can see that the One had a fantastic launch and has since slowed down a bit relative to the 360.

360 sold more than 360....mind blown



edit: ha too late Leondexter!

 

[Guevara]

Right side says 360 twice, quick, fix it and no one else will notice. Good observation, though. This month will help, it beat the 360's equivalent month.

whoops, thanks

 

[Chobel]

On the subject of: "is the Xbox One selling better than the Xbox 360 did?", I made the following chart:

So, yes the Xbox One is still around 800k units ahead of the 360 launch aligned. But by breaking it into periods you can see that the One had a fantastic launch and has since slowed down a bit relative to the 360.

So XBO is actually selling worse than 360? Interesting.

What about the period after MS ditched kinect? Which one sold more?

 

[Dragonborn]

So XBO is actually selling worse than 360? Interesting.

What about the period after MS ditched kinect? Which one sold more?

Also keep in mind that the 360 had major supply constraints during that time

 

[TheRagnCajun]

I think the most logically consistent explanation for the PS4 outselling the XboxOne in the territories where the 360 outsold the PS3 are that the PS4 was cheaper at launch, had the positive mindshare of having better multiplats, and the positive publicity of having exclusive marketing deals for huge releases like Watch_Dogs and Destiny. Even after the PS3 dropped down to an equal or lower ASP than the 360 and eventually closed the gap on multiplatform games, it didn't matter, because consumers had already made up their minds. MS made the mistake of believing that the 360 fanbase was made of people loyal to their brand, rather than people loyal to what their brand had previously embodied (high end graphics and superior online play at competitive prices).

The Xbox One isn't doing nearly as poorly as the PS3, but it is currently in some grey area between it and the 360 in NA. I think that not having a true Gears or Halo sequel for this fall will really hurt its trajectory going into next year (I'm as excited as anyone for MCC, but remakes gonna remake). And they have the added bonus of every multiplat they advertise working against them, as it simply makes the PS4 more desirable.

The console will end up with tons of good games and multiplats are selling well enough that it won't lose support, but dreams of winning the online sales wars are pretty much over barring a miracle.

This gen proves that there is deffinately such a thing as 'too late' for correcting your mistakes. Six months ago the most common response to the question 'how does MS save xbone?' was 'drop kinect, $400 USD'. MS did it, and the consumer response was underwhelming. Maybe that's because people know the multiplats are better on PS4, maybe thats because of the marketing deal on Destiny, I think its because people purchasing consoles now probably already made up their mind nearly a year ago.

Its not that consumers are stubborn and can't forgive MS (although some are). I think you only get one chance to make an initial impression, where the media coverage is highest and people are talking about it. Trying to change direction and fix those mistakes months later requires trying to educate everyone, which ends up being confusing:

"Every Xbone comes with Kinnect!" "Did you know? Kinect is not required to be on to play games"
"Xbone is always online, always connected! "Did you know? Internet connection is not required"

Talk about mixed messages. While MS is spending advertising money on this education process, Sony is spending money on just hyping up their product. So Sony built up a lot more momentum, and they are being carefull not to give consumers a reason to change their minds. Where MS stands as a platform now, I think they are at best par, in terms of value and experience. At best, par. That's not enough to break Sony's momentum. MS has a lot more work to do, and it really does come down to how badly the screwed up their reveal and initial direction/policy.

 

[Pain]

To those who just can't figure out why the PS4 is winning, let me provide a brief explanation.

-More powerful console
-Best place for multiplatform games
-Higher install base means friends are more likely to convince each other to get a PS4
-Momentum is still going from launch.

Also another I would say is that people were ready to move away from Xbox this gen and try Playstation. People get tired of the same franchises over and over again. Just look at the success of Destiny and Watch Dogs, those sold extremely well even tough they get average reviews.

 

[Guevara]

So XBO is actually selling worse than 360? Interesting.

What about the period after MS ditched kinect? Which one sold more?

Looks like 360

 

[Heshinsi]

It would have to do the majority of that in Europe because racing games are dead in NA and console gaming is dead in Japan.

That's exactly where GT5 did most of its business, and that region is the reason anyone who thinks GT7 is going to have bad sales would be crazy. GT5 sold more in Europe tha NA and Japan combined.

 

[Leonsito]

Is there a PS3 - X1 graph launch-alligned?

 

[Opiate]

That's exactly where GT5 did most of its business, and that region is the reason anyone who thinks GT7 is going to have bad sales would be crazy. GT5 sold more in Europe tha NA and Japan combined.

I assume "bad sales" is a relative term. Compared to Gears of War, GT7 will likely have great sales. Compared to GT3, GT7 will likely have poor sales.

If the next Call of Duty sells 10M units LTD, are those good sales are bad sales?

 

[AuthenticM]

Does Pachter posts on Gaf ? I wonder if he's finding all of this nonsense funny. I hope.

 

[jelly]

On the subject of: "is the Xbox One selling better than the Xbox 360 did?", I made the following chart:

So, yes the Xbox One is still around 800k units ahead of the 360 launch aligned. But by breaking it into periods you can see that the One had a fantastic launch and has since slowed down a bit relative to the 360.

Also the 360 was supply constrained for a long time so it might even have done better than Xbox One at the start as well.

 

[lightning2k3]

All the numbers are posted here :

Edit : Apparently I'm not supposed to post this link.

This site looks like its sourcing from GAF. This is why we need to hide the data in email tags so this doesn't get reposted everywhere on the internet. Either that or leakers wait a day or two before releasing numbers, after casual people lose interest.

 

[jelly]

Also another I would say is that people were ready to move away from Xbox this gen and try Playstation. People get tired of the same franchises over and over again. Just look at the success of Destiny and Watch Dogs, those sold extremely well even tough they get average reviews.

Good point but also include PS franchises if you never owned a PS3. Microsoft set the tone of Fable, Halo, Forza, Gears for too long and people were relatively sick of it as they didn't offer much else beyond those so Microsoft while playing it safe and riding it out last gen, started the swing to PS4 while Sony pushed that swing further with a good end to PS3 with new games and features then cemented it with a good PS4 offering.

 

[spwolf]

amazing self-promotion

his predictions are so bad that I cant believe this could be good for him...

 

[donny2112]

Another NPD leak ?

No, it's a summary of the numbers from here.

 

[jakncoke]

Does Pachter posts on Gaf ? I wonder if he's finding all of this nonsense funny. I hope.

iirc he has an account with not that many posts.

 

[Suzushiiro]

On the subject of: "is the Xbox One selling better than the Xbox 360 did?", I made the following chart:

So, yes the Xbox One is still around 800k units ahead of the 360 launch aligned. But by breaking it into periods you can see that the One had a fantastic launch and has since slowed down a bit relative to the 360.

As I've argued in NPD threads for months where both consoles sold less than their predecessors and people proclaimed that the sky was falling and the gaming industry was doomed, I'm pretty sure that what we're seeing here is that the early adopters adopted earlier than usual while the people who usually wait a year or two still waited/are waiting, so a lot of the sales that usually happen over the course of the first year happened in the first 2-3 months instead.

The biggest contributor to this is probably that unlike previous generations where the new consoles had mediocre to shit lineups for the first year while the old consoles had a lot of their best games come out, almost every major release in the past year has been cross-gen. So people bought the consoles thinking "yeah, maybe the exclusives will still be mediocre to shit for the first year or so, but at least I'll be able to play the better versions of CoD, AC, etc."

 

[neverknowsbest]

This gen proves that there is deffinately such a thing as 'too late' for correcting your mistakes. Six months ago the most common response to the question 'how does MS save xbone?' was 'drop kinect, $400 USD'. MS did it, and the consumer response was underwhelming. Maybe that's because people know the multiplats are better on PS4, maybe thats because of the marketing deal on Destiny, I think its because people purchasing consoles now probably already made up their mind nearly a year ago.

Its not that consumers are stubborn and can't forgive MS (although some are). I think you only get one chance to make an initial impression, where the media coverage is highest and people are talking about it. Trying to change direction and fix those mistakes months later requires trying to educate everyone, which ends up being confusing:

"Every Xbone comes with Kinnect!" "Did you know? Kinect is not required to be on to play games"
"Xbone is always online, always connected! "Did you know? Internet connection is not required"

Talk about mixed messages. While MS is spending advertising money on this education process, Sony is spending money on just hyping up their product. So Sony built up a lot more momentum, and they are being carefull not to give consumers a reason to change their minds. Where MS stands as a platform now, I think they are at best par, in terms of value and experience. At best, par. That's not enough to break Sony's momentum. MS has a lot more work to do, and it really does come down to how badly the screwed up their reveal and initial direction/policy.

Adding to this line of reasoning, most consumers do not actively read gaming news (or any news). It doesn't matter how many articles or blog posts of tweets MS makes about their new policies, they won't reach the non-enthusiast masses that are required for huge sales success. Most people get their gaming news indirectly, from friends or Facebook, so they only hear the stories that generate a lot of buzz, which are basically major announcements. So when MS's major announcement was that they were releasing a new console that was required an Internet connection, even though they changed course, a lot of consumers simply didn't hear that news.

 

[kaching]

However, I'm not sure everyone who is saying this is thinking this through entirely. For instance, one could make the reasonable argument that this means iOS is an even more compelling platform than the PS4 is. Also using the same reasoning, one would have to conclude that the Wii was simply a better platform than the PS3 or Xbox 360 were.

Actually, I don't think you're thinking it through entirely. This line of thinking would be reasonable if all these platforms were targeting the exact same kind of consumer and/or the exact same consumer interests. In which case, sure, if iOS and PS4 were pitching to the same kind of consumer interests/needs, then it would be precisely correct to say one is just more compelling than the other based on sales. But there's a lot less overlap between the interests being pitched with iOS vs PS4 than PS4 vs XBO. In the latter case they are pitching to almost 100% overlapping interests.

And while the Wii was pitching to a lot of the same overlapping interest as the PS3 and 360, it was still not anywhere near 100% and also raises the issue of sustainability. Being "compelling" doesn't necessarily translate into an enduring interest.

There's plenty of extenuating circumstances here that don't make a simple sales comparison between two very similar platforms to determine which is more compelling to customers, the right methodology to then apply across various other, much more disparate platforms.

Not to say you don't have to factor for the sort of preference bias that you identified in enthusiast debates like this, but I don't think that's a major contributing factor in this case.