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[hawk2025]

I don't trust user reviews for a game like that, most of them probably haven't played it. I think it's just people angry about the DLC.

Regardless, it has set the trajectory for sales fairly well in the past, no? The game just launched and it's tracking below dozens of other games, including older releases. This is not a very common occurrence for great sellers, from what I recall.

Angry or not, people don't seem to be swallowing Evolve. We'll see how it does next month, but I expect it to be a pretty big sales disappointment for all parties involved.

 

[Occam]

Why are people trying to downplay attach rate? As if that isn't one of the actual most important numbers to look at for publishers?

No, I think that would be absolute sales.

 

[Dragonborn]

Dat Microsoft pr.

They could have sold One console, but that one person buys 10 games and their statement would still be true.

Masters of spin.

But attach rate is the only thing that matters so that would obviously be even better!

 

[bananafactory]

Regardless, it sets the trajectory for sales fairly well.

Angry or not, people don't seem to be swallowing Evolve. We'll see how it does next month, but I expect it to be a massive sales disappointment.

I guess we'll see, I still think it'll sell decently. I also have a gut feeling a lot of people are going digital with it.

 

[John Harker]

Because people that decide to bring games to the Vita are irrational and are driven to compete against the best game on the platform Kick & Fennick to prove to their old mentor that they can also create amazing games.

Obviously an exercise in futility.

That made me laugh haha

 

[nib95]

Surprised are ya?

Im surprised people thought the ps4 wouldn't win, lol

But what is the difference compared to November and December exactly? Why the expectation of a drop off compared to the PS4 in January and beyond, if the price never went back up? Unless it going up for that one week in January made all the difference that is. No idea of it did or didn't.

At the new cheaper price point, I sort of expected the Xbox One to lead the NPD from here on out. Though admittedly The Order 1886 and Bloodborne could impact that, notably if there are new bundles.

 

[Occam]

That is what I'm saying! How the hell did Sony win even with the lower price?

Better value proposition.

 

[benny_a]

But attach rate is the only thing that matters so that would obviously be even better!

He said one of the most important factors, which is true.

 

[SniperHunter]

wow @ the ps4 comeback

ahahahahaha

 

[Welfare]

But what is the difference compared to November and December exactly? Why the expectation of a drop off compared to the PS4 in January and beyond, if the price never went back up? Unless it going up for that one week in January made all the difference that is. No idea of it did or didn't. At the new price point, I sort of expected the Xbox One to lead the NPD from here on out. Though admittedly The Order 1886 and Bloodborne could impact that.

It went back up in price for 12 days. That's a long time.

 

[hawk2025]

Attach rate is an extremely important number in general, but more so in loss-leading platforms like consoles used to be.

As far as I know, all three platforms are not using the loss-leading model anymore, so absolute sales should be the more relevant number for discussion -- although in estimating demand, it's surely useful information ex-ante that one platform has higher attach than the other, so it's still useful info either way.

 

[Occam]

But attach rate is the only thing that matters so that would obviously be even better!

The metric that really matters is number of zombies killed.

At least for zombie game developers.

 

[allan-bh]

Attach rate is relevant to show that even with low install base, some system could be interesting for publishers.

 

[benny_a]

It went back up in price for 12 days. That's a long time.

As a comparison: The first manned moon mission was completed in 8 days.

 

[yurinka]

If I don't mistake in Feb. and March Sony will have The Order and Bloodborne, and MS won't have any AAA exclusive.

So even if Dark Soul games weren't big sellers I think PS4 will keep selling more than XBO in US until at least mid April.

And does WiiU have any big release until then?

 

[Machinehead]

even? batman is like 10x bigger than the witcher and looks cool as fuck

Does anyone have the numbers for each franchise? I'm interested, mostly on Batman.

 

[nib95]

It went back up in price for 12 days. That's a long time.

That is indeed a fair amount of time. Hopefully cream drops some numbers so we get an idea of what the difference in sales is.

Side note, are most expecting the Xbox One to take back the lead in February?

 

[Welfare]

Side note, are most expecting the Xbox One to take back the lead in February?

Not happening.

 

[AyaisMUsikWhore]

Looks like amid the good news, there is still bad. I don't get it though. All these record breaking sales and Hardware is still down. It just doesn't add up at all.

Regardless, congrats on both. I'm actually surprised to see Sony back up in Jan. Either way, if a price drop happens at E3... Lordt.. I'm afraid of what might happen. Hopefully they provide a new model with 1TB for the extra $50.

 

[sora87]

Didn't expect PS4 to get back on top in January, good going Sony. I think they'll have another solid few months of top spot now especially with the games beginning to drop.

 

[bananafactory]

Side note, are most expecting the Xbox One to take back the lead in February?

I doubt it. February is The Order month and they also have Bloodborne coming in March.

 

[allan-bh]

Side note, are most expecting the Xbox One to take back the lead in February?

No because of The Order.

 

[Manmademan]

That is indeed a fair amount of time. Hopefully cream drops some numbers so we get an idea of what the difference in sales is.

Side note, are most expecting the Xbox One to take back the lead in February?

Probably not, given that Sony has a flagship launch next week.

 

[Dragonborn]

But what is the difference compared to November and December exactly? Why the expectation of a drop off compared to the PS4 in January and beyond, if the price never went back up? Unless it going up for that one week in January made all the difference that is. No idea of it did or didn't.

At the new cheaper price point, I sort of expected the Xbox One to lead the NPD from here on out. Though admittedly The Order 1886 and Bloodborne could impact that, notably if there are new bundles.

The X1 was less than $350 during the holidays, and on top of that it came with multiple games and gift cards.

The X1 bundle just by itself at $350 is still not nearly as appealing as a $399 PS4. This is exactly why, in my opinion, the worse case scenerio for MS is a $299 PS4. At that price, I assume they'd need be at $199 to stay on even ground (or maybe $250 with a couple of games thrown in). They've backed themselves into a corner

 

[BokehKing]

If I don't mistake in Feb. and March Sony will have The Order and Bloodborne, and MS won't have any AAA exclusive.

So even if Dark Soul games weren't big sellers I think PS4 will keep selling more than XBO in US until at least mid April.

When is Microsoft's next triple AAA game the the Witcher? (game they can bundle)

 

[Elfstruck]

bloodborne and the order wont move a ton but will help boast a stronger lineup. i think sony dropa price at e3, has a ton of exclusives, morpheus release date, and so on.

Sony already said in their statement that there is no plan in dropping the price. Why would they be anyway?

 

[VinFTW]

But what is the difference compared to November and December exactly? Why the expectation of a drop off compared to the PS4 in January and beyond, if the price never went back up? Unless it going up for that one week in January made all the difference that is. No idea of it did or didn't.

At the new cheaper price point, I sort of expected the Xbox One to lead the NPD from here on out. Though admittedly The Order 1886 and Bloodborne could impact that, notably if there are new bundles.

Come on... does ANYBODY really have to explain why its foolish to assume the PS4 WOULDN'T win NPD after a promotional holiday period?

Don't be naive.

edit: see dragonborns post

 

[RBK]

What's the narrative behind the PS4 selling more digital games?

You wouldn't think the retail sales would have any correlation with the digital sales?

 

[Wereroku]

Sony already said in their statement that there is no plan in dropping the price. Why would they be anyway?

They will probably drop it for holiday 2015. At that point they will have manufacturing costs down.

 

[John Harker]

Attach rate is relevant to show that even with low install base, some system could be interesting for publishers.

Yea some people still only have console mentalities and aren't considering the console market as a whole.

Attach rates are a factor when deciding what ecosystems can be monetized for profitability, I.e Vita gets some ports Wii U doesn't, what platforms to release small Digital Only games on if you're an indie, what consoles to align with for marketing if you're negotiating with both etc. It's not a dismissible number since its indicates how active the user base of a console is which helps with projections

 

[loaf of bread]

Side note, are most expecting the Xbox One to take back the lead in February?

Maybe if they are delusional. PS4 has TLOU bundled now and has been marketing the order while the XB1 has nothing now or coming out.

 

[Enosh]

Haven't the first two Witcher games done 3 million combined? 3 will do OK but the Arkham series is huge, even among casual players. 10x is exaggerating of course but there's a big gap there.

this says 8 million total for both citing a fiscal report
http://segmentnext.com/2014/09/05/witcher-witcher-2-sales-reach-8-million-mark/

not sure how reliable

 

[hawk2025]

What's the narrative behind the PS4 selling more digital games?

You wouldn't think the retail sales would have any correlation with the digital sales?

I've yet to hear a good argument for it on either direction.

I would expect the digital/physical splits to be roughly the same for both.

 

[Khalifa Jayy]

That is indeed a fair amount of time. Hopefully cream drops some numbers so we get an idea of what the difference in sales is.

Side note, are most expecting the Xbox One to take back the lead in February?

The Order's release makes me go with a no, good sir.

 

[RoboPlato]

this says 8 million total for both citing a fiscal report
http://segmentnext.com/2014/09/05/witcher-witcher-2-sales-reach-8-million-mark/

not sure how reliable

I was very wrong then. Thanks for the link.

 

[FATALITY]

Does anyone have the numbers for each franchise? I'm interested, mostly on Batman.

someone pointed out that the witcher 1 and 2 sold 3m combined. im not sure but i think batman ac sold like 6 or 7m.

edit:nvm there is a link above

 

[AstuteClass]

People need to quit with the "price went back up" excuses. First of all, that "back up" is only the same price as PS4. Secondly, the price was only up 11 days. The other 2/3 of the month had the price $50 cheaper. Lastly, what's the excuse for February, which has shown PS4 leading X1 on Amazon's Best Sellers list since the first day.

 

[nib95]

To the responses above, I guess I over estimated the difference a cheaper price can make, and underestimated the PS4's demand. On reflection, with The Order and Bloodborne releasing over the coming months, I suppose it would be difficult for the Xbox One to claw it back, even with the cheaper price.

 

[heidern]

“Hardware sales declined by 23 percent as sales cooled off after the holiday season,” said Callahan. “Eighth generation console hardware sales were down by 22 percent while seventh generation console hardware sales decreased by 35 percent.”

Looks like 7th gen were down to around 35K each. Current gen decline partially because of the lower prices on Xbox and maybe some YOY decline on PS4. Don't know if you can calculate handhelds from the information given.

 

[Occam]

The point is, we don't know which console sold most software, but due to Microsoft's weird wording I have a strong suspicion PS4 won on that front, too.

 

[Aarglefarg]

Why are people trying to downplay attach rate? As if that isn't one of the actual most important numbers to look at for publishers?

Correcting a misunderstanding, not downplaying attach rate.

 

[jjonez18]

PS4 came out on top even while staying at 399$.
Judging by MS pr they didn't do to bad either.

 

[Chobel]

Batman is bigger of course, but not 10x.

The Witcher is a substantial launch, will sell much more than you think.

So I've done a little research, The witcher 2 was released in May 17th 2011, but it didn't even chart in May 2011 NPD. So why do you think it will be a big deal this time?

Haven't the first two Witcher games done 3 million combined? 3 will do OK but the Arkham series is huge, even among casual players. 10x is exaggerating of course but there's a big gap there.

They sold 8 million, the franchise is big, just not in US.

 

[Scully Scully Scoo]

good to see wiiu flopping. ninty needs to understand the console sucks. either get with the times or get out of gaming

I'm pretty confident that we are getting a Gears game of some kind this holiday...

https://twitter.com/shinobi602/status/532613010645585920/photo/1

oh god please be true. a remastered trilogy would be godsent

 

[Calamari41]

good to see wiiu flopping. ninty needs to understand the console sucks. either get with the times or get out of gaming

I think they're aware on this third January of the Wii U's life.

 

[Freeman]

Sony already said in their statement that there is no plan in dropping the price. Why would they be anyway?

They have reason to do it, specially in the US, historically they drop the price of their console before 2 years. At some point it makes sense even if its are selling well.

I think E3 is the time for it, they could also introduce another SKU at 399 with 1TB HDD.

 

[allan-bh]

So I've done a little research, The witcher 2 was released in May 17th 2011, but it didn't even chart in May 2011 NPD. So why do you think it will be a big deal this time?

NPD doesn't track digital sales and PC sales are almost all digital.

360 launch was 1 year later.

 

[hawk2025]

Yea some people still only have console mentalities and aren't considering the console market as a whole.

Attach rates are a factor when deciding what ecosystems can be monetized for profitability, I.e Vita gets some ports Wii U doesn't, what platforms to release small Digital Only games on if you're an indie, what consoles to align with for marketing if you're negotiating with both etc. It's not a dismissible number since its indicates how active the user base of a console is which helps with projections

The issue is that the attach rate itself is an ancillary statistic for nearly all of the uses you mention -- meaning, given the rest of the data available, there are better ways of determining these decisions based on demand for specific genres, for example.

If we ("we" as in publishers) only observed attach rates, this would be a great point -- but given the richness of the data, it absolutely should not be one of the most important statistics looked at by publishers.

 

[nib95]

I'm pretty confident that we are getting a Gears game of some kind this holiday...

https://twitter.com/shinobi602/status/532613010645585920/photo/1

Probably Remasters. I can't imagine Black Tusks new sequel will be out in time.

 

[Ricky_R]

I simply said it was possible. Never said it would happen and said many times that it was stupid for MS to increase the price.

My logic when it came to our discussion was seemingly in tune with a good amount of multiplats doing better on XB1 though (people getting games that their friends got for Christmas).

Of course, anything is possible. It was just pretty unlikely when you actually analysed the situation. You actually argued in favour of the possibility continuously, dismissing the much stronger position Sony was in after the holidays with arguably two big games at the beginning of the year (in addition to the great line-up of games they have this year), and MS's mistake of bringing the price back up.

Btw, I didn't say that you were sure it would happen. I said that you believed it would happen.