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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
We're going to have to wait on some prod results. Apologies to everyone who has kept up with things.
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Night 5 has ended. Everybody survived the night.
Day 6 has begun. Day 6 will end on Wednesday 4th March at approximately 23:00 GMT.
You may now resume posting.
Votes needed for majority: 10
Enough with the bullshit. I'm going with my guts. He earlier had no problem lynching, later claimed he wanted to cause a tie regarding Kalor and started to vote against lynching, probably to draw away attention from him. If someone can convince me otherwise, go ahead. I'm well aware this puts me in the spotlight, but I've been passive for the past days and every time we ended up lynching someone innocent.
VOTE: Lord of Castamere
VOTE: Lord of Castamere
Zippedpinhead
Member
With no deaths last night, I'm really confused, who was protected? who switched things? Is there a mafia role that can only die from the lynch mob (it's ability is that it is unaffected by night time kills?)
Huh. Well that's unexpected. Guess we won last night's blind man's bluff between the doctor and mafia with the whole "will they target the role person or another person or..." Good job doc. Though that would really only explain the absence of one kill. So as to what happened to the other one who knows. I suppose the Mafia sending in the second kill could've been blocked by a town role blocker or something like that.
Hooray!
I looked at Pants last night because I was expecting the Mafia to try and jack at least one person not directly involved in the me/Time/Karkador/Quantum/Palmer kerfluffle to ensure at least one kill and I wanted one of the non Amir0x voters since that might make them a target. No one looked at Pants last night.
Hooray!
I looked at Pants last night because I was expecting the Mafia to try and jack at least one person not directly involved in the me/Time/Karkador/Quantum/Palmer kerfluffle to ensure at least one kill and I wanted one of the non Amir0x voters since that might make them a target. No one looked at Pants last night.
Yeah, I'm not sure what to think based on no deaths. I'm really surprised amir0x wasn't Mafia or neutral. I'm still not sure what's going on with our Cop, but it's early in the day.
I'm gonna go back and look at how amirox affected my votes/suspicions previously in light of him not being mafia. I feel like there were people that I gave a pass to only because they were also voting him.
I'm gonna go back and look at how amirox affected my votes/suspicions previously in light of him not being mafia. I feel like there were people that I gave a pass to only because they were also voting him.
No one died. Well done, ladies and gents. I'm not entirely sure how we pulled that one off, but good on everyone. Kark, Ultron, QuantumBro, other mystery town savior.
We were wrong about Amir0x, but I think everyone can agree that he was acting really odd the past few days, so I'm not going to count voting for him against anyone. I was one of them, after all.
As for tonight, I personally think we need that third name, Ultron. I'll probably keep bothering you until you decide to reveal it.
Anyway, since Ultron found out no information last night, I wonder if QuantumBro and Kark mind revealing who they targeted?
We were wrong about Amir0x, but I think everyone can agree that he was acting really odd the past few days, so I'm not going to count voting for him against anyone. I was one of them, after all.
As for tonight, I personally think we need that third name, Ultron. I'll probably keep bothering you until you decide to reveal it.
Anyway, since Ultron found out no information last night, I wonder if QuantumBro and Kark mind revealing who they targeted?
pants
Member
*sits at the pub while everyone is locked in their rooms*
Sup guys, who has more to say here? We learned last round that talking a lot is good, lets keep it up. Considering last night's events I think we have a ton of blockers or we got super extremely lucky. I dont believe in luck
Sup guys, who has more to say here? We learned last round that talking a lot is good, lets keep it up. Considering last night's events I think we have a ton of blockers or we got super extremely lucky. I dont believe in luck
tomakasatnav
Member
Is it a possibility that the mafia chose not to act last night, or are we confident we blocked them?
It seems weird that given so much of the protection talk was in public, that they wouldn't pick off a random straggler anyway?
It seems weird that given so much of the protection talk was in public, that they wouldn't pick off a random straggler anyway?
Zippedpinhead
Member
I have been saying since day 2 that I think one of the night time killers either has a kill restriction (for example: every other night). This night makes that theory kinda tough to still work on. The nights where one or less people were killed (I am counting duress's first hit as a two night kill) are nights 2, 4, and 5. No deaths last night throws off my main theory, which had been that the second killer could only target every other night. The only restriction that still works (as opposed to just having an option to kill, see below) for that second killer I can think of now is, you can only target someone if you did not target a player the previous night (which allows for two 1/no death nights in a row).
Looking at Crab's verbiage for the "mafia goon" in the OP, he states
. This leads me to believe that the mafia do have an OPTION not to kill, similar to our "no Lynch". It's possible the second killer also just flat has an option to kill or not kill each night.
I think until Karkador says who he targeted and Quantumbro says if he did anything I don't think we can make any assumptions on whether we blocked 1 kill, somehow 2 kills or if the two killers just didn't target anyone.
Truthfully, I am a bit worried about the deaths, or lack there of. I think the mafia may have done this just so that we throw some shade on Karkador, Quantum and ultron? The first thing I thought was if Karkador could not protect himself, and he is still alive, why isn't someone that quantum switched dead.
Alternatively, there may be a mafia role that prevents it from dieing in nighttime kills. It would be the only way to hide from the second killer if they are town, so that the only way to "WIN" the game is to lynch the final mafia person. That would mean that one of the killers targeted the person that quantum switched with and the newly targeted person's ability saved them.
Lord of Castamere
Member
I tried to save Kalor and Arm0x. I had strong suspicions that they both were innocent. I tried directly causing a tie with Johnny but ended up killing him. My decision to switch to no lynch was because of that. I fully expected us to have some sort of guidance from a roled town by this point, and other accusations have amounted to nothing.
If you want to lynch me for trying to save innocent town people go right ahead.
I agree. No kills tonight is really, really weird.
Let's assume for a minute that Kark had a perfect guess in protecting someone. Great. Kark still can't protect himself from another kill unless QuantumBro switched him, which if he did, someone else randomly would've died.
The only scenarios I can think of are:
Mafia Targets
Possibility #1: Mafia has only one kill tonight (or only used one kill)
N5: ?A? (Protected by Kark)
Comments: Could not have been Kark, he cannot target himself.
Possibility #2: Mafia has both kills
N5: ?A? (Protected by Kark), Kark (switched by QuantumBro for ?B?)
Comments: ?B? was protected by someone else, or has an ability to survive a hit.
Possibility #3: Mafia decides on no kills
N5: N/A
Comments: Makes Kark, QuantumBro and ultron look like liars.
P3 could be a double bluff. If that's the case and they didn't kill anyone on purpose, it's equally likely that they were trying to "prove" Kark, Quantum and Ultron were telling the truth by disallowing kill, but miscalculated that one kill is mysteriously missing OR they knew we would question the missing kill and start questioning if all three of them were telling the truth.
Honestly, I'm leaning towards P1 at the moment. I think mafia have the capability of killing two people, but possibly not every night. Or they decided against it last night, for whatever reason. Kark guessed right (probably picking QuantumBro or Ultron), and we succeeded in preventing any kills.
If Kark and QuantumBro could chime in with who they targeted last night, that would be awesome.
QuantumBro
Banned
Sorry I didn't respond till now, been busy and I kinda assumed I was dead so I din't check the thread.
As for last night, I switched Karkador with a random person, like I said I would. Since nobody died, I'm starting to think that one of the killers might not be in the Mafia, since it would help explain why no one died last night.
As for last night, I switched Karkador with a random person, like I said I would. Since nobody died, I'm starting to think that one of the killers might not be in the Mafia, since it would help explain why no one died last night.
Zippedpinhead
Member
who did you switch karkador with? we need to consider everything.
Zippedpinhead
Member
I ask because we really aren't all random characters anymore. Its possible there are abilities that we haven't considered (I never would have thought of a character like Duress if he had not died already).
QuantumBro
Banned
I switched him with traube.
Exactly what I'm thinking. There's got to be some kind of blocking role, and multiple people probably have it.
I can't imagine a scenario where the Mafia choosing to take a night off makes any sense. They have the advantage in information already and are gaining in numbers with every death. Why would they give us a free night to catch up even a little bit? Even if they didn't want to risk a boomerang kill by choosing someone that is supposedly getting switched there is still a large number of town people who are more under the radar and should be able to be safely killed.
I think the second killer being based on some unknown condition is looking like more and more of a possibility. Maybe they need to know what role someone has or something like that to kill?
I think the second killer being based on some unknown condition is looking like more and more of a possibility. Maybe they need to know what role someone has or something like that to kill?
Zippedpinhead
Member
I think the second killer can't target someone on consecutive nights. Its the only thing that makes sense. We have never had two nights with two deaths in a row. It does make the third person that you saw on night 2 more likely to NOT be the secondary killer role (probably even a traditional cop).
This also probably has the same "may Kill" instruction that the mafia have, so that the second killer can wait on the kills, this would benefit him even more if he was town aligned. Maybe he didn't want to target a town person accidentally last night (especially since we have all been largely terrible on who we target).
Zippedpinhead
Member
Traube, Since Quantum switched you and Karkador, did you receive anything during the night?
Karkador, who did you "help" last night? Is there anything you can provide?
it's been days and people have barely posted. Did we really learn nothing from last night? Any information might be useful.
any theories? speculation? I was wrong about Amir0x, and I am leery about my own suspicions...
Karkador, who did you "help" last night? Is there anything you can provide?
it's been days and people have barely posted. Did we really learn nothing from last night? Any information might be useful.
any theories? speculation? I was wrong about Amir0x, and I am leery about my own suspicions...
I voted for you to be pro-active and hopefully stir the discussion in a direction that was influenced by me, so that for once I can at least be sure that the target was my idea/choice. You've been somewhat inconsistent.
That said, I will change my vote, as I have convinced myself of an entirely different theory that actually kinda makes sense. I'll see if I can sum up the evidence tomorrow.
No, I did not receive a message from crab or anything else. So I have no idea if the switch happened or not.
VOTE: RobotNinjaHornets
I've given it a lot of thought and I've come to the conclusion that, among others, RobotNinjaHornets is one of the most suspicious players in the game. He has the least posts of all active players (unless I missed something) and his posts have been (from what I can tell) utterly useless or unimportant. There is no indication whatsoever that he has a special (tourist) role, otherwise he would've at least given us an indication, either directly or indirectly. As I claimed earlier, it is extremely benefitial to stay out of the limelight and not draw any attention and he has always posted (at least once), but never took any clear or controversial position. See who we lynched: Not a single completely inactive player, even Amir0x was more active. Every time we were wrong and since we "focused" on suspicous behavior, we neglected those that were truly suspicious.
In short:No hints, no constructive posts or debate, just a minimum of posts to not get a notification, he perfectly fits into what I would expect a mafia member to do. The similar argument by the way applies to other extremely inactive/"hiding" posters as well.
I've given it a lot of thought and I've come to the conclusion that, among others, RobotNinjaHornets is one of the most suspicious players in the game. He has the least posts of all active players (unless I missed something) and his posts have been (from what I can tell) utterly useless or unimportant. There is no indication whatsoever that he has a special (tourist) role, otherwise he would've at least given us an indication, either directly or indirectly. As I claimed earlier, it is extremely benefitial to stay out of the limelight and not draw any attention and he has always posted (at least once), but never took any clear or controversial position. See who we lynched: Not a single completely inactive player, even Amir0x was more active. Every time we were wrong and since we "focused" on suspicous behavior, we neglected those that were truly suspicious.
In short:No hints, no constructive posts or debate, just a minimum of posts to not get a notification, he perfectly fits into what I would expect a mafia member to do. The similar argument by the way applies to other extremely inactive/"hiding" posters as well.
I mean I've had really little time to follow the game, yet I have more than twice as many posts as RobotNinjaHornets. I'm sorry, but that's suspicious.
Other players that have been somewhat inactive, although I haven't checked their post history to see if they ever did something noteworthy:
Rembrandt - 13
AbsolutBro - 15
MattyG - 16
tomakasatnav - 20
ultron87 - 25
Of those posters, three (MattyG,tomakasatnav,ultron87) received a prod. I assume that those players, unless it's a strategy, have posted little because maybe their roles are unimportant (or so special they wanna survive). That leaves Rembrandt and AbsolutBro as two other posters that have posted very, very little. I have not yet checked whether they ever did something controversial/attention-drawing, but they're also high on the list.
I propose therefore that we start with RobotNinjaHornets, unless he can defend himself or someone can bring up a good argument why we shouldn't lynch him.
Other players that have been somewhat inactive, although I haven't checked their post history to see if they ever did something noteworthy:
Rembrandt - 13
AbsolutBro - 15
MattyG - 16
tomakasatnav - 20
ultron87 - 25
Of those posters, three (MattyG,tomakasatnav,ultron87) received a prod. I assume that those players, unless it's a strategy, have posted little because maybe their roles are unimportant (or so special they wanna survive). That leaves Rembrandt and AbsolutBro as two other posters that have posted very, very little. I have not yet checked whether they ever did something controversial/attention-drawing, but they're also high on the list.
I propose therefore that we start with RobotNinjaHornets, unless he can defend himself or someone can bring up a good argument why we shouldn't lynch him.
personally, I think 2 and 3 are most likely. I wouldn't be surprised if there was another townie with a role but hasn't said anything yet. I also think it's likely they're trying to make us suspicious of the three people you mentioned, maybe in hopes we would end up lynching a power role. the no deaths/kills thing is odd.
I've been saying it a lot, but school has me busy, especially when it comes to this thread and all the info that's consistently being posted. I try to at least stay updated on what's happening, but I don't have much to contribute so I just kinda chime in at times. I do think your idea of lynching the inactives is pretty solid. it might end up in two townies dying, but we don't have a lot to draw conclusions on, but if we weed out the people barely contributing then it should encourage them (including me) to post more. it's not guaranteed to lead to anything, though. we've lynched off pretty solid hunches and haven't came too much closer, besides the people claiming roles.
For lack of anything else concrete, I'm in favor of lynching inactives at this point in the game.
VOTE: RobotNinjaHornets
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
Well this isn't good. No, I don't post much, and I do keep intending to post more (and probably will after this >_>), but between difficulties keeping up with the thread and not really having any major thoughts when I do catch up, it's kind of hard to come up with useful posts. Doesn't help that I'm normally super self-conscious when posting anyway, let alone somewhere where all my posts are being put under scrutiny. I mean, at this point we still haven't really got anywhere yet. We've only killed tourists so far, and it hasn't exactly been based on a whole lot each time. Hell, look at the egruntz situation, that seemed to happen basically because he was being a bit of a dick. Surely you can see why I'd show a bit of precaution.
Not sure I quite understand what your point about the prods is here, it seems like you're saying that people who've been prodded are less suspicious. Why would a prod make someone less suspicious? Or have I just completely misunderstood?
Moving on, my thoughts for today:
I don't like this ultron situation. I mean it's good that no-one died but...I dunno. It seems like something they could've made up. It sounds risky, but no-one's going to want to come out with their roles if they don't have to. On top of that, I feel like the roles that ultron, Kark and Quantum have taken for themselves work as a cover up quite well. Quantum claims that someone switched Kalor with Ward, but what if he was mafia and just straight out killed Ward? Then after ultron made his post (in-game) yesterday, they could pretend that they each just protected each other and hey! It worked out!
I need to go back and solidify my thoughts more, but...yeah.
Robot, I totally understand your concerns, since I share them about QuantumBro and Karkador. I know that they have roles that target, but have no real confidence that they both have the roles that they claimed. QuantumBro has a less than common role that we only know exists because he has told us that.
Karkador did something that made little sense for a doctor to do, revealing himself with little prompting. Also, the only way for his story to get countered would be for a real doctor to stand up, which is probably a net win for the Mafia. The fact that he didn't die last night seems even more suspicious.
They've both fit into the information I presented, but either one could just be using the fact that they know I have their names on a list to try and provide legitimacy.
Karkador did something that made little sense for a doctor to do, revealing himself with little prompting. Also, the only way for his story to get countered would be for a real doctor to stand up, which is probably a net win for the Mafia. The fact that he didn't die last night seems even more suspicious.
They've both fit into the information I presented, but either one could just be using the fact that they know I have their names on a list to try and provide legitimacy.
Don't get me wrong, it's not that I don't understand you, but I think we need a change of strategy and you fit most criteria on how I would play as mafia. You're simply the most likely candidate based on that, even if normally I would have other players on my list.
I didn't really express myself very well. I didn't want to accuse everyone with few posts and I haven't had the time (or nerve) to go through the entire thread and read up on what all of you posted. Then I noticed that the three living players with the least posts didn't have a prod. Why is that? How come those people posted the least, but always enough not to get a prod? My idea is that those getting a prod simply forgot posting, which I would assume the mafia (or those with special roles) would not, especially if they have another place to discuss things. It is not a general "mafia/no mafia" criteria, one would have to go through the post history to get a better conclusion, but it stuck out to me and it would make sense. Not to mention getting a prod draws attention.
Sorry for being inactive this round; real life got a lot busier, and I haven't had a lot of time to think about Mafia, let alone post on GAF.
The lack of deaths last night can seem a bit perplexing, since multiple variables are still in play; but I do think that someone may have exercised their right to not kill- or maybe there is still someone among us who can survive night attack
As for who I healed last night, I think I'm going to not say it this this time, as a little experiment. Also, I'd rather not give away who the killers are free to target tonight.
I will, however, remind people that I can't heal the same target twice in a row.
With that said, here is a reminder of who I healed before last night:
Night 1 - Myself
Night 2 - Timeaisis
Night 3 - Myself
Night 4 - Palmer
Ultron, I don't like that we have to keep arguing about this, despite how clear it is that I'm trying to help you. I backed you up because I think your story checks out, and I want the Town to have something they can rely on. Again, if I had not backed you up, it would have only made you persecute me harder, anyway - and if I had not backed you up, you wouldn't seem as credible to other players.
Let me put this another way - if I was mafia, I probably would have killed you already. Sorry to be blunt about that, but I'm much more interested in having you live.
The lack of deaths last night can seem a bit perplexing, since multiple variables are still in play; but I do think that someone may have exercised their right to not kill- or maybe there is still someone among us who can survive night attack
As for who I healed last night, I think I'm going to not say it this this time, as a little experiment. Also, I'd rather not give away who the killers are free to target tonight.
I will, however, remind people that I can't heal the same target twice in a row.
With that said, here is a reminder of who I healed before last night:
Night 1 - Myself
Night 2 - Timeaisis
Night 3 - Myself
Night 4 - Palmer
Ultron, I don't like that we have to keep arguing about this, despite how clear it is that I'm trying to help you. I backed you up because I think your story checks out, and I want the Town to have something they can rely on. Again, if I had not backed you up, it would have only made you persecute me harder, anyway - and if I had not backed you up, you wouldn't seem as credible to other players.
Let me put this another way - if I was mafia, I probably would have killed you already. Sorry to be blunt about that, but I'm much more interested in having you live.
AbsolutBro
Member
I'm here, and I'm reading, but I'm not really sure what to say. I suspected Amir0x, and he ended up being an innocent. I really don't have much to go on for anyone at this point. I can't think of anything I've done that could be considered controversial, leading or telling; I did try to swing the vote away from Kara for onto Ami, but they both ended up being completely innocent.
tomakasatnav
Member
Obviously you're going to get everyone saying they're town (and maybe rightfully so!) but as an ordinary tourist, (saying this having probably missed plenty of obvious stuff) there doesn't feel there's been much to go on, even with the recent revelations.
You can:
Come up with your own theories (Which I've found extremely difficult, which I put down to 1.not knowing all the roles, both not knowing which are in play from the start and how many, to not having ever heard of a role and 2. not knowing anyone well enough here on GAF)
Go with other theories (Which by large, have felt too flimsy and I've decided not to vote)
Try wait it out for power players to have more info
Now, on that last point, I'm thinking to myself - do we have a Seer/Cop role in Town? There's no point them revealing themselves if they don't have anything useful, but I thought there'd be something at this point, especially with all that came out during ultron's stuff. Although, looking at the first page reveals there's lots of players left, it feels a lot smaller!
Looking at the list of deaths in the first post, we've really mowed through the ordinary tourists and I'm trying to figure out how many we have left.
I agree with you. I don't think everyone who claimed their role was telling the truth about it. Could be mafia members. But they could also be tourists who hide their real (maybe more powerful) role.
Again I am really not sure what to vote.
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
Ah right, yeah I see what you're going for. It kind of makes sense, but I feel like it doesn't quite work for accusing people who haven't been prodded. I haven't forgotten about the game, I just haven't known what to actually post. The two times I've voted for someone (Kalor and Amir0x) were two times when I thought people definitely looked suspicious, but even then those wasn't based on a whole lot of information. Ami was based on odd posting, which I thought could be him pretending to be bad at the game (when it turns out he actually was bad). And now that I think about it, Kalor was because Quantum claimed the switch happened. I wasn't convinced until that happened, and none of it was because of Kalor himself. He got placed in an unfortunate situation, and we all pounced on him.
So potential series of events given my latest train of thought:
People are suspicious of Kalor
The mafia kill Ward
Quantum claims he got a message saying "Switch: Ward and Kalor", framing him
This makes Kalor look super suspicious, and he gets lynched
A couple of game days later, after it's not as fresh in our minds, Ultron reveals that he's been watching people each night but doesn't say who he saw targeting each person
Quantum reveals that he did the switch, and who he switched each night, except every night other than the supposed Kalor/Ward switch had no visible effect
No-one dies that night
Quantum and Kark can claim that they protected each other and Ultron and it worked
Gain trust from everyone
...this makes too much sense to me.
VOTE: QuantumBro
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Needs to be in highlight tags, Hornets.
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
It's a possible scenario, certainly. I am starting to think that either Kark or QuantumBro are lying. Initially, I announced in excitement that this was sure-fire, but after thinking it over, you are right there is something fishy going on.
Ultron, I believe. He is serving town's best interest by a) providing information and b) witholding the third name to avoid a possible bandwagon. Even though I disagree with b., he still is doing it with pro-town motivations in mind, and the fact that both Kark and QuantumBro corroborate his story means that either he is telling the truth or that they are all lying (and mafia). Since I believe either Kark or Quantum is telling the truth, it stands to reason that Ultron is telling the truth as well. Therefore, Ultron is town.
Karkador I keep going back and forth on. He claims he is the doctor, and he hasn't yet died. We know he cannot protect himself, yet at the same time we know that on the days he (claims) to have protected people, there have been limited deaths. For example, the night he protected me, I did not die even though two other people targeted me (likely, one of them a killer). This doesn't necessarily prove anything, as there could be no killer present in that mix, but the question still remains: if there was no threat on my life that night where did the 2nd kill go?
Similarly, last night we had no kills. Kark and QuantumBro both claimed to have protected certain people, and indeed no one died. If Kark is to be believed, Kark protected Ultron, and Quantum switched Kark out for someone random. Clearly, Kark did not die neither did a random other person. This could mean one of two things: a) Kark wasn't targeted last night (even though he roleclaimed doctor), b) Kark is mafia or c) QuantumBro is lying. If QuantumBro did indeed switch Kark and Kark was targeted we would've seen the effects on another person, unless that other person was protected by a mysterious third party. Even still, the fact that Ultron survived, no one died, and Karkador claims to have protected Ultron leads me to believe that Karkador did have at least some positive effect on the game last night in some capacity.
However, here's where it gets weird. Why didn't the mafia go after Karkador? Even if QuantumBro did indeed switch Karkador for someone else, the mafia would still have at least made a kill. They know that Kark couldn't protect himself. They also know that QuantumBro was likely going to switch him. However, they did not know who Kark was planning to protect, but could've likely guessed Ultron. It seems like it would've been in mafia's best interest to target Kark anyway, likely get him switched for someone else town, and the end. The only reason for them not to do this is if they were worried about quantumbro switching Kark for a mafia, which would be highly unlikely. Therefore, I think if Kark is the doc, he would have been targeted last night.
This leads me to three possible conclusions:
a) Karkador was protected by a third party
b) Karkador is mafia
c) Someone is lying
I think someone knows something that they don't want to share, for fear of it being utilized by the mafia.
Apologies for this long, rambly, logic leaping post. Since we still have little information, I'm going strictly by intuition. This is by no means a proof of anything. Feel free to argue.
Zippedpinhead
Member
OK with a little more than 24 hours to go, we have two schools of thought.
1 - To target the people who are "active" in that they have not been prodded by Crab, but inactive in that they pretty much just show up to Vote.
2 - That QuantumBro, karkador, or Ultron (or any combination of the three) may be lying about their roles. This could be a risky Mafia trick, in that they risk being directly outed as Mafia if the real role comes out. This is a double edged sword, because while they run this risk, The mafia would then be able to target that role without issue.
I personally think that 2 is only being considered because no one died last night. I'm inclined to believe that if we have two mafia killers, one of those three will die tonight anyways, and they decided to just target one person last night due to either a role restriction (to which I have already posted theories) OR they were willing to risk NOT killing anyone to gain some knowledge on whether those three were telling the truth. It is also possible that we have 1 mafia killer and 1 town killer (i.e. vigilante), and the vigilante decided not to kill last night to try and wait out if Ultron, Kark, and Quantum were telling the truth.
Of the three, Quantum has the most "unique" role, so I understand where Robotninjahornets's theory is going, on the other hand, I agree with El Topo in that Robotninjahornets is pretty suspicious based on the stay active, but stay underground theory.
In addition, unlike all the rest of our town lynches Robotninjahornets is not only providing a defense, but he is actively presenting another theory. None of the accidental townies did that. That is anecdotal, but interesting...
I'll vote a little later, but I am still inclined to vote with theory 1. Maybe not you Robot but I really want to vote with Theory 1. And if all three of the roles are still alive tomorrow, I'll probably be mores suspicious of them especially if we go deathless again. I think with karkador hiding who he helped he has forced the mafia's hand on one kill tonight, there is no WAY a mafia person does not target the same person they targeted last night based on karkador's inability to protect them. If they targeted a power role, they know its an easy kill, if they targeted a random they learn if that random had a role that prevented the kill.
1 - To target the people who are "active" in that they have not been prodded by Crab, but inactive in that they pretty much just show up to Vote.
2 - That QuantumBro, karkador, or Ultron (or any combination of the three) may be lying about their roles. This could be a risky Mafia trick, in that they risk being directly outed as Mafia if the real role comes out. This is a double edged sword, because while they run this risk, The mafia would then be able to target that role without issue.
I personally think that 2 is only being considered because no one died last night. I'm inclined to believe that if we have two mafia killers, one of those three will die tonight anyways, and they decided to just target one person last night due to either a role restriction (to which I have already posted theories) OR they were willing to risk NOT killing anyone to gain some knowledge on whether those three were telling the truth. It is also possible that we have 1 mafia killer and 1 town killer (i.e. vigilante), and the vigilante decided not to kill last night to try and wait out if Ultron, Kark, and Quantum were telling the truth.
Of the three, Quantum has the most "unique" role, so I understand where Robotninjahornets's theory is going, on the other hand, I agree with El Topo in that Robotninjahornets is pretty suspicious based on the stay active, but stay underground theory.
In addition, unlike all the rest of our town lynches Robotninjahornets is not only providing a defense, but he is actively presenting another theory. None of the accidental townies did that. That is anecdotal, but interesting...
I'll vote a little later, but I am still inclined to vote with theory 1. Maybe not you Robot but I really want to vote with Theory 1. And if all three of the roles are still alive tomorrow, I'll probably be mores suspicious of them especially if we go deathless again. I think with karkador hiding who he helped he has forced the mafia's hand on one kill tonight, there is no WAY a mafia person does not target the same person they targeted last night based on karkador's inability to protect them. If they targeted a power role, they know its an easy kill, if they targeted a random they learn if that random had a role that prevented the kill.
Zippedpinhead
Member
I think that there is a legit reason why the mafia did not target Karkador last night (or at least why karkador did not die). Karkador stated he can not target the same person two nights in a row, and on night 5 he COULD have protected himself. for that reason the mafia may have thrown their votes another direction (or not voted), thinking they can get Kark to waste his save on himself and get him the next night. If they voted last night, I think they vote for the same person tonight. They know its a guaranteed hit. If they didn't vote last night, they will vote for Karkador thinking he protected himself last night and will be a good chance of a death.
All of this theory hinges on that the second killer either COULD not kill that night or chose not to kill that night. The only way either of those is not the case is if Traube can not be night time killed. Ultron says he switched karkador with Traube. If this is true, it means that if Karkador targeted someone else last night and was target by the mafia, Traube should have died (unless he has that no nighttime death role). This leads me to believe that Karkador protected himself last night, and instead of dieing after being switched Traube lived.
If the second killer did act last night... well then... that changes everything...
It is my understanding that Karkador cannot protect himself. Meaning that someone else would've had to protect him. Essentially, we'd need to add another mysterious third party into the mix.
Zippedpinhead
Member
If the second killer DID act last night, that means that Karkador wasn't targeted last night (which is extremely unlikely if he is the doctor), who he protected was targeted, AND the other person the second killer targeted couldn't die at night OR Traube can not be killed at night.
Occam's razor says that of those two solutions, it's more likely traube can not be killed at night.
So if there is a town aligned vigilante, you need to speak up. If you targeted someone who Karkador targeted, then we have an Easy mafioso to target (because why would a townie be unable to die at night, we could not lose until the mafia had the majority.)
We also would give the mafia a really big target, except wait. We have TWO targets, the doctor and the vigilante. Ultron can watch one of them, karkador can protect the other. And we either learn another mafia character, OR we have another night with no mafia deaths...
Occam's razor says that of those two solutions, it's more likely traube can not be killed at night.
So if there is a town aligned vigilante, you need to speak up. If you targeted someone who Karkador targeted, then we have an Easy mafioso to target (because why would a townie be unable to die at night, we could not lose until the mafia had the majority.)
We also would give the mafia a really big target, except wait. We have TWO targets, the doctor and the vigilante. Ultron can watch one of them, karkador can protect the other. And we either learn another mafia character, OR we have another night with no mafia deaths...
Zippedpinhead
Member
He only says that he can not target the same person two nights in a row.
Also the role blocker might have the same restrictions as Karkador. Otherwise why not block Ultron last night? He could have investigated Karkador (the most likely target for death) and learned a mafia person. That begs the question, maybe they targeted Karkador for role block. However, if THAT is the case, I think it would have been even more unlikely to not have a death last night.
If they can targeted the same person every night then they could just endlessly block Karkador and kill everyone else. This is probably worse than Outright killing him, because he would not be able to know if he was blocked (as he receives no feedback from his role unless the player he heals dies and then it is too late).
I think that the role blocker may have either blocked the vigilante kill or prevented Karkador from healing. Using on Karkador makes sense, if you want to Target him (assuming the Role blocker is Mafia) if you think karkador is going to save himself. However he was switched with Traube, and by Ultron's admission his role goes first (so any role prevention won't work on him). This would have made any targets go to Traube.
So the Role Blocker either blocked Traube or The vigilante, Since we didn't get any kills I think it is more likely that Kark saved someone (whether a third party or Traube through the switcher).
This gives the Mafia information, they realized that they blocked a death with their role blocker. So do they target the doctor or do they target the Role they blocked? Also Can Traube be killed at night? The only out from this for a Town vigilante that Targeted someone last night is if they reveal themselves. If they did NOT target someone last night, I think they need to stay quiet and Traube was probably saved from karkador.
Assuming the second killer is town aligned:
If the second killer acted last night and Karkador targeted someone else, then Traube is probably a special Mafia role. If the second killer acted last night and Karkador targeted himself, then the role blocker probably blocked the second killer and Traube was saved by kark and is unknown (no logic to tell if he is town or mafia). If the second killer did not act last night, then we are back at square one. It is also possible that Traube is the second killer and one of his rules is that he can not target himself...
If the second killer is NOT town aligned, then it is more likely that he did not act last night as the role blocker is more likely a mafia player. It benefits the mafia to block roles that learn and save, blocking roles does not benefit Townies at all because there is no feedback.
The problem with all this logic is that the mafia can see it too, BUT I think that it shows us a lot about a role (Second Killer) and a player (Traube), we really don't have a lot of info on. If all this info comes out then we can probably work a way out that limits our exposure to the next night phase (lots of targets sure but it will give Ultron, kark, and the second killer thoughts on how to survive this).
Cool! Good to know you're aware of the fact that if I had died on previous nights (pre-reveal) it would've thrown suspicion onto you.
Sorry but I remain incredibly suspicious of your decision to reveal yourself as the doctor to legitimize the, frankly, small amount of information I shared. If my info was "here's two Mafia members one hundred percent, murderize em!" then it makes sense. But not for "some people got looked at but I don't really know what they all did but maaayybe this one person who no one was already really suspecting is okay?".
If I had wanted to actually persecute you with this information I would have just dropped your name out there and forced you to defend yourself, but I purposefully didn't do this since I obviously wasn't sure. I even specifically noted the fact that my suspicions that had been presented previously weren't based on the info I had gained from this so as not to put you directly on blast in case my suspicions were wrong. Truthfully, they really weren't except as a very light starting point since I know you had a role so I took a harder look at the posts of the people I had reports on. What you actually posted and voted in the thread was the primary reason I accused you, as has been explained previously. And now my suspicions have been stoked by this role claiming business.