In Sweden there has long been a debate about
nuclear power. Whether we should a) expand our nuclear power capacity immediately, b) wait until we have closed our current (ageing) plants before building new ones, c) not build new ones when the ones we have now eventually close down or d) close the ones we have immediately.
Most kids are for option D) because nuclear power sounds scary. After reading more about it in high-school, I became a hardcore proponent of option A), but then as I grew older, and the energy situation change, I slowly started to change my viewpoint to option C) (along with most people who pay attention to the issue and don't just follow party lines)
My reasons for supporting nuclear power were the need for a carbon free renewable alternative to prevent global warming, its reliability in steadily delivering high power all year round, its cost competitiveness and the relatively high safety compared to what can be found in other countries, because Swedish nuclear power is world class. Everyone worrying about safety and long-term storage of spent fuel is a hippie stuck in the seventies that knows nothing about economics or technology.
However, upon closer scrutiny over the years, I realized that most of this is bullshit.
It is true that nuclear power is good from a global warming perspective, but that doesn't make it renewable, as is sometimes wrongly claimed, as the reservoirs of suitable uranium are not endless. Also, the extraction and upgrading of fuel is often far from clean, often leading to severe pollution.
Regarding reliability, it is true that it is usually more reliable than the main alternatives (solar and wind) but the reliability has dropped as lot in recent years in Sweden, we have frequently had considerable downtime due to maintenance and upgrading that have needed more time than forecasted. In fact, according to an IAEA report, in 2009, Swedish nuclear reactors had the lowest availability in all of Europe, operating at 63 % of capacity. In comparison, the corresponding number in Finland, which was the best in Europe in 2009, was 95 %.
Source, in Swedish. The propaganda played on Swedes' tendency to think we are the best at everything to push the narrative that Swedish nuclear power is world class, while in reality, our old and tired reactors are among the worst in the World.
But, you might say, that is only an argument for retiring our old reactors, it doesn't rule out that we should be building new, highly modern, world-class reactors. But here another important issue, which is profitability, comes into play. It may be true that for companies operating nuclear power plants, it's a highly lucrative affair. But that is just because the companies which operate the plants didn't have to pay for building them. Nuclear power is profitable if you already have a plant, but if you have to take into account the costs of building the plant, the situation rapidly changes. The up-front investment for building the plant is so huge that even with a depreciation time as high as 50 years, it is not economically feasible to build it, and no capitalist worth their salt would throw away their money on such a bad investment. The only way it would make sense would be with huge subsidies from the government in that they would pay most of the money for building the plant, they would limit the liability of the operator of the plant in the event of an accident (otherwise insurance costs for the operator would be enormous) and in how the amount of money the operators pay for future storage of spent fuel (for which the proposed technology still has not been conclusively proven) is likely lower than what the actual costs would be.
But why take my word for it? Let's just look at how the two countries that are betting the most on building new nuclear power plants are doing: UK and Finland.
The project approved by the British government is turning out to be a very expensive deal for the British tax payer. The British government is guaranteeing the operators of the plant a minimum electricity price, which in today's money, is twice as high as the current market price (and also allowed to increase with ininflation). The European Commission is investigating whether this corresponds to illegal subsidies by EU law.
Finland, on the other hand, did get a much better initial deal, but in hindsight it turns out that their plans for building the reactor was a pipedream. Initially planned to start operating in 2009, the start of operation has been delayed numerous times,
and the current estimated date for start-up is 2018, nearly a decade behind schedule, and these delays have naturally brought with them a large increase in cost compared to plans. The parties involved are blaming each other for the delays, and are trying to claim billions of Euros in compensation. To summarize, it's a clusterfuck.
Meanwhile, let's look at the alternatives, solar and wind:
Back when I was a supporter of nuclear power it was "common knowledge" that wind and solar power were expensive and that they could never be competitive with nuclear power. But this is how investment costs for wind power has evolved in reality (source IEA) :
Wind power is now becoming competitive with much dirtier energy sources. (An increase in price up to about $2000 USD/MWh took place after the cut-off of that graph, due to various factors, but this increase has peaked, and prices are now going down again.)
The development has been even more impressive for solar power, which long was considered a pipedream by self-professed experts:
Rapid technology improvements have led to amazing drops in costs, and there is no end in sight for this trend.
Now, there are even still a few arguments that can be made for nuclear power. One is that, while environmentally friendly, wind and solar power are unreliable, with huge fluctuations depending on time of day and weather forecast, and that this is not suitable for parts of the electricity-hungry Swedish industry (read aluminium production). And this may be true. This is why I am not in favour of option d) of the options I laid out in the first paragraph. Considerable research will be needed to develop smart-grid solutions with reliable methods for energy storage and conversion during peak electricity generation hours (for use when electricity generation from wind and solar are low) and technology to monitor and control these energy conversions. The nuclear power we have provides us with a much-needed time buffer to solve these issues. Also, look at how badly Germany is doing, with a high reliance on Russian gas, after prematurely closing down nuclear capacity.
Some people argue that it may be worth it for the government to subsidize expensive new nuclear power plants, if it helps the Swedish industry survive. And while there may be a point to that, my reply would be two-fold: first consider the possibility that the European Union would not allow these subsidies. Second, if you are willing to give such large subsidies for nuclear power, wouldn't this money be better spent on research for better energy sources or subsidies for struggling biofuels?
In the end, it's a shame that there is so much misinformation floating around. This is one issue where many people still feel entitled to their own facts. I think if more people took the time to learn all the facts, more people would start changing their minds on this issue.