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March 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD March 2015 retail period (March 1-April 4, 2015) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, April 14th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: March 1-April 4, 2015 (5 weeks, February was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, April 16th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in March:
Summary
PS4/XB1 Final Fantasy Type-0 HD (March 17) - 19 days (probably more PS4 impact than XB1 based on franchise history)
PS4 Bloodborne (March 24) - 12 days
Some theorize that Easter may have an impact on gift-buying, and the week before Easter is in March NPD period (Mar. 29-Apr. 4), this year - 7 days


npdmarch2015finalt3yqu.png

ps4march20154juur0.png

xb1march20154y4upl.png

wiiumarch2015ofu4a.png

360march20154b4uwj.png

ps3march201549qurw.png

3dsmarch20154cfu0m.png

psvmarch20154adx9g.png




Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

February's Results (estimates)
1. 3DS ~ 395K
2. PS4 ~ 342K
3. XB1 ~ 276K
4. WIU ~ 95K

February 2014 NPD thread
March 2014 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
I miss Aqua

I'm gonna predict anywhere between 250k - 350k for Bloodborne NPD.

*this estimate is entirely my own and not representative of any business or its data.
 

donny2112

Member
Took Aqua's part out of quotes now, so it should be easier to read. How does the size seem to you all? (Content is very good, though.)
 

Road

Member
Wow, the amount of work it must have taken for that image. Impressive.

[3DS] 222,222
[PS4] 399,999
[WIU] 99,999
[XB1] 266,666
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Took Aqua's part out of quotes now, so it should be easier to read. How does the size seem to you all? (Content is very good, though.)

You can put it back in quotes.

All I do is click the image and it makes it bigger. Is that a universal thing?
 

donny2112

Member
You can put it back in quotes.

All I do is click the image and it makes it bigger. Is that a universal thing?

Yep, it should happen for all pics in quotes in this forum.

I'm heading out for a couple of hours, so others, let me know about the pics in the OP, too. Quotes make them smaller, but you can click on them for full size. Aqua did make them to work together at full size, though, so I have asked her about just reducing the box art sizes to see if that helps. :)
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Fantastic work, Aqua (...Aqua ;_;).

So, Bishchecked gentlemen, start posting your impressions about games and consoles for March :p
 

Kayant

Member
Massive thanks to Aqua for the write up. Wasn't it top 6 last year with amazon being 6? Or am I remembering wrong?

[3DS] 320k
[PS4] 415k
[WIU] 95k
[XB1] 305k
 
great overview. thank you donny, thank you aqua.
the covers are a bit huge for my taste. would be easier for the reader to have them smaller.
will estimate after retail spies posted some info.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Thanks for the detailed write up Aqua... Miss your inputs.

[3DS] 350K
[PS4] 430K
[WIU] 75K
[XB1] 230K



Bloodborne prediction: close to 400k
 

Rymuth

Member
I know you're lurking, so just so you know. WE MISS YOU, AQUA!

Reserving this spot. Will update later.

EDIT:

[3DS] 320k
[WIU] 98k
[XB1] 280k
[PS4] 420k

[Bloodborne] 340k
 

Abdiel

Member
Pretty straightforward month:

PS4 is still killing it, easily winning the month in our stores, by a good margin. The MCC bundle really has done nothing to accelerate as direct competition.

Bloodborne did great, better than many of our store supervisors were expecting. Though even with that, Hardline still sold more in our stores... Though nowhere near as good as BF4 did. I'll be interested to see how the trend goes. FF Type 0 also did pretty well, from what I can see. A *huge* slant towards PS4. Seriously, I'm guessing higher than 75% in favor of PS4 for both preorders and sales after the fact.
 

Welfare

Member
For anyone wondering about how March might look like, March is actually almost always down compared to February, even with it having an extra week.

The average drop for the big 3 in the 7th gen (2010 onwards):

360 = -14%
PS3 = -16%
Wii = -6%

Including all years:

360 = -8%
PS3 = -13%
Wii = 0%

Removing the lowest and highest gain/drop:

360 = -11%
PS3 = -13%
Wii = -4%

Only years where March was > February was:

2006 X360
2007 PS3
2008 X360 WII
2010 WII
2013 WIU
2014 XB1 PS4
 

Bouniter

Member
Having always just always lurked these threads previously (though I don't post a lot period).

I just wanted to thank Aqua that was huge amount of risk and pressure you put yourself under. And I know that I can speak for all of us lurkers and posters alike in wishing you a truly heartfelt thank you and all the best in the future.

Thankyou Aqua.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Pretty straightforward month:

PS4 is still killing it, easily winning the month in our stores, by a good margin. The MCC bundle really has done nothing to accelerate as direct competition.

Bloodborne did great, better than many of our store supervisors were expecting. Though even with that, Hardline still sold more in our stores... Though nowhere near as good as BF4 did. I'll be interested to see how the trend goes.

Thanks! What about other stuff (Final Fantasy Type-0 HD, 3DS, Mario Party 10, and older titles from February).
 
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