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March 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
My question to those saying a price drop is likely to happen this year is, what is Sony's incentive?

What proof does one have to say they will make back their lost margins on higher sales by dropping the price?

Do we have any actual previous data that says that more people will jump into the PS4 at say 299 than XB1 with a 150 drop since launch?

They are actually selling less now of the XB1 in that scenario with nothing for MS's group to show for it, even bundling in tons of games.

I don't see exactly what the difference in Sony is exactly.
 

Welfare

Member
Sorry you are generalizing this discussion thread. I am not saying this isn't a discussion that needs to be had, but none of this has to do with March 2015 sales in the US. I mean was there any price drop in March?

In other words, the last couple of pages have been less about predicting March sales and more about a "theoretical" price cut. Whether Sony a price cut in the future has no affect on the sales in March 2015, right? Dumb it down for me if you have to. I'm not joking.

We use this place for discussing sales in general. Hell back in November's prediction thread we were talking about December.

Just putting predictions down and talking about the month would result in a very slow moving thread. These extra discussions also help keep the the thread visible for others to come in.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Sorry you are generalizing this discussion thread. I am not saying this isn't a discussion that needs to be had, but none of this has to do with March 2015 sales in the US. I mean was there any price drop in March?

In other words, the last couple of pages have been less about predicting March sales and more about a "theoretical" price cut. Whether Sony a price cut in the future has no affect on the sales in March 2015, right? Dumb it down for me if you have to. I'm not joking.

This is a sales thread. All sales discussion is fair game. That is the way these threads have ALWAYS worked. If you have an issue with that then I suggest you go elsewhere. Your objections about discussing sales related topics in a sales thread are absurd. Why the hell are you so intent on stamping out the discussion at hand?
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Oh please dude that was a blatant attempt at an attack. You tried to call into question the vercity of his staements by defining a word he used in a different context. Unfortunately for you it didnt hold up to even the most elementary level of scrutiny. There is no denying that.

yeh.

I don't use ignore lists but this guy would be first place if I did decide to use it one day. Basically he thinks his opinions are facts and he's vocal about it. Also we had a debate once where he disagreed with something I said and so now he tries to call me out in my posts and disagrees with anything I say. Hell I can say the world is round and he'll try and prove to me the world is flat...

Top selling game on the PlayStation Store for March as well. The March release was perfect for this game.

It's good to see Bloodborne doing well, I hope we see similar games like this in the future from Sony.
 

gamehead

Neo Member
PS4 sells the most thanks to Bloodborne
3DS in second place
Xbox One in third
PS3, Wii U and Vita (which is strong in JP) battle it out for fourth
360 in 7th
Wii dead last

I don't want to use number because I have no clue. I've probably broken a rule, but hey.
 

Welfare

Member
yeh.

I don't use ignore lists but this guy would be first place if I did decide to use it one day. Basically he thinks his opinions are facts and he's vocal about it. Also we had a debate once where he disagreed with something I said and so now he tries to call me out in my posts and disagrees with anything I say. Hell I can say the world is round and he'll try and prove to me the world is flat...

Well you're wrong the world is FLAT, and I have proof.

World_map_blank_without_borders.svg
Big and flat.

PS4 sells the most thanks to Bloodborne
3DS in second place
Xbox One in third
PS3, Wii U and Vita (which is strong in JP) battle it out for fourth
360 in 7th
Wii dead last

I don't want to use number because I have no clue. I've probably broken a rule, but hey.

360 is above the PS3 and Vita in the US. This isn't the Media Create thread.
 
My question to those saying a price drop is likely to happen this year is, what is Sony's incentive?

What proof does one have to say they will make back their lost margins on higher sales by dropping the price?

Do we have any actual previous data that says that more people will jump into the PS4 at say 299 than XB1 with a 150 drop since launch?

They are actually selling less now of the XB1 in that scenario with nothing for MS's group to show for it, even bundling in tons of games.

I don't see exactly what the difference in Sony is exactly.
Because historically dropping the price on popular hardware boosts sales. It also lines up really well with the price drops for the PS1, PS2 and PS3. Just because price drops and deals for the Xbox One didn't make it sell massively better than the PS4 doesn't mean that a PS4 price drop won't boost sales.
 
My question to those saying a price drop is likely to happen this year is, what is Sony's incentive?

What proof does one have to say they will make back their lost margins on higher sales by dropping the price?

Do we have any actual previous data that says that more people will jump into the PS4 at say 299 than XB1 with a 150 drop since launch?

They are actually selling less now of the XB1 in that scenario with nothing for MS's group to show for it, even bundling in tons of games.

I don't see exactly what the difference in Sony is exactly.

Alright say the sales projection of Uncharted 4 is 10% of userbase. That's just off the top of my head don't take it as knowledge.

Anyway. Say the sales projection from Sony without a price drop is 40 million by the time Uncharted 4 hits. Then they do a projection based off history on what other price drops have done and they project it will increase sales month to month by I dunno 30%. So they take that increase in sales and do some holiday bumps and such through bundles and they figure they will with a price drop be around 46 million by the time Uncharted 4 releases. They can then do a projection on how many more units of Uncharted 4 will sell with the price drop. And then they can say ok we have a 50% attach rate with + so we can estimate another 3 million subscriptions.

Such and such and so on. Sony will want all the sales they can get on software and exclusives and build the base as fast as possible for the third parties as well.
 

Death2494

Member
yeh.

I don't use ignore lists but this guy would be first place if I did decide to use it one day. Basically he thinks his opinions are facts and he's vocal about it. Also we had a debate once where he disagreed with something I said and so now he tries to call me out in my posts and disagrees with anything I say. Hell I can say the world is round and he'll try and prove to me the world is flat...

.

...
 
Alright say the sales projection of Uncharted 4 is 10% of userbase. That's just off the top of my head don't take it as knowledge.

Anyway. Say the sales projection from Sony without a price drop is 40 million by the time Uncharted 4 hits. Then they do a projection based off history on what other price drops have done and they project it will increase sales month to month by I dunno 30%. So they take that increase in sales and do some holiday bumps and such through bundles and they figure they will with a price drop be around 46 million by the time Uncharted 4 releases. They can then do a projection on how many more units of Uncharted 4 will sell with the price drop. And then they can say ok we have a 50% attach rate with + so we can estimate another 3 million subscriptions.

Such and such and so on. Sony will want all the sales they can get on software and exclusives and build the base as fast as possible for the third parties as well.
Yeah, there is that too, they can take a smaller profit on hardware and boost profit from software and subscriptions, and more people buying software allows for more games to be developed which means more software sales again. Also related, but they will definitely want to get a price drop in Japan before FFXV comes out too.
 

RexNovis

Banned
yeh.

I don't use ignore lists but this guy would be first place if I did decide to use it one day. Basically he thinks his opinions are facts and he's vocal about it. Also we had a debate once where he disagreed with something I said and so now he tries to call me out in my posts and disagrees with anything I say. Hell I can say the world is round and he'll try and prove to me the world is flat...

He clearly has no actual interest in discussing sales. If he did he would know that your numbers are solid and your methodology nigh impeachable. Just ignore him and keep doing what you do.

OT: Historical precedent has Sony doing price cuts in increments of $100 around this time LTD for each of their home console systems. I'd argue that is one of the most compelling reasons you can argue for the possibility of a price cut this year. As far as supply goes Sony's whole retail strategy revolves around shipping just enuogh to exceed demand. Their goal has been to have as littel overstock as possible. We have also seen drastic ramp ups in shipment (and possibly production) for holidays so it is reasonable to assume that they have plenty of room to maneuver a price cut.
 

gamehead

Neo Member
I was looking at that site that can't be named but estimates weekly hardware and software sales for this week. The Vita, PS3 and Wii U beat the 360.

Well you're wrong the world is FLAT, and I have proof.


Big and flat.



360 is above the PS3 and Vita in the US. This isn't the Media Create thread.
 
Alright say the sales projection of Uncharted 4 is 10% of userbase. That's just off the top of my head don't take it as knowledge.

Anyway. Say the sales projection from Sony without a price drop is 40 million by the time Uncharted 4 hits. Then they do a projection based off history on what other price drops have done and they project it will increase sales month to month by I dunno 30%. So they take that increase in sales and do some holiday bumps and such through bundles and they figure they will with a price drop be around 46 million by the time Uncharted 4 releases. They can then do a projection on how many more units of Uncharted 4 will sell with the price drop. And then they can say ok we have a 50% attach rate with + so we can estimate another 3 million subscriptions.

Such and such and so on. Sony will want all the sales they can get on software and exclusives and build the base as fast as possible for the third parties as well.

A higher install base does not correlate with higher sales, Uncharted 2 to 3 is one such example. Speaking of Uncharted, super interested in seeing how 4 does in NA. The Uncharted franchise was never big at all in America, think 3 did about 700k first month and fuck all after that whereas a new IP in TLOU did close to a million first month. Will be fun to see if TLOU bought over new ND fans and have made them interested in UC4, I'm someone that hated the Uncharted games but TLOU was just too good and the same directors are making 4 so hype is through the roof.

Question is, could UC4 break 1 million first month in NA or will sales go down south after the disappointment that was UC3 in particular? It could go either way since we can't predict the future but my thinking is that it's gonna be the first ND game do complete that feat in NA.
 

ascii42

Member
I was looking at that site that can't be named but estimates weekly hardware and software sales for this week. The Vita, PS3 and Wii U beat the 360.

Firstly, it's banned for a reason. Secondly, that's globally. Only the WiiU is likely to outsell the 360 in the US.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
I was looking at that site that can't be named but estimates weekly hardware and software sales for this week. The Vita, PS3 and Wii U beat the 360.

Well thats your problem.

Don't ever use that site as a definitive source for Hardware/Software sales. There is a reason the website is banned on here.
 

g0dofwar

Banned
There are no solid reason for a price reduction at the moment because of them entering the Chinese market this will give them a new business opportunity to exploit and the fact that they will have Playstation Now being sold on Samsung and Sony televisions which gives them ample room for growth this year. There is no real competition forcing them to cut. It is entirely in Sony's hands when they choose to cut the price.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Alright say the sales projection of Uncharted 4 is 10% of userbase. That's just off the top of my head don't take it as knowledge.

Anyway. Say the sales projection from Sony without a price drop is 40 million by the time Uncharted 4 hits. Then they do a projection based off history on what other price drops have done and they project it will increase sales month to month by I dunno 30%. So they take that increase in sales and do some holiday bumps and such through bundles and they figure they will with a price drop be around 46 million by the time Uncharted 4 releases. They can then do a projection on how many more units of Uncharted 4 will sell with the price drop. And then they can say ok we have a 50% attach rate with + so we can estimate another 3 million subscriptions.

Such and such and so on. Sony will want all the sales they can get on software and exclusives and build the base as fast as possible for the third parties as well.

I see, thanks for the clarification. Of course, i'm gonna say no to the guy who says they want a price drop before FF15 in Japan. Both PS4 and XB1 have been below launch prices for a long time(XB1 massively so). I don't think another one is gonna do that much.
 
I see, thanks for the clarification. Of course, i'm gonna say no to the guy who says they want a price drop before FF15 in Japan. Both PS4 and XB1 have been below launch prices for a long time(XB1 massively so). I don't think another one is gonna do that much.

It doesn't matter in Japan, they need all the help they can get. Dropping the price of the PS4 to around ¥36,000 (to line up with a US drop to $299) before Japan's biggest PS4 game would be a VERY smart idea to juice as much out of it as possible and try to keep the system afloat in the country.
 

Elandyll

Banned
There are no solid reason for a price reduction at the moment because of them entering the Chinese market this will give them a new business opportunity to exploit and the fact that they will have Playstation Now being sold on Samsung and Sony televisions which gives them ample room for growth this year. There is no real competition forcing them to cut. It is entirely in Sony's hands when they choose to cut the price.
For crying out loud... What is happening to this thread?
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
It doesn't matter in Japan, they need all the help they can get. Dropping the price of the PS4 to around ¥36,000 (to line up with a US drop to $299) before Japan's biggest PS4 game would be a VERY smart idea to juice as much out of it as possible and try to keep the system afloat in the country.

FF15 isn't going to save Japan at all. Its not anywhere near Japan's biggest game in terms of anticipation either. Its gonna do like 200,000 tops and then drop to 1/10th that the very next week i'm sure, just like every other release.

What Sony needs is not to bank on that one game, but to line up continuous software like they did in March. If they can't do that, its gonna drop back down to the 4 digits and stay there. I don't know if they even have the resources to pitch to Japanese devs how to do that, but they need to if they are gonna have any hope this year. There are no real releases lined up until Persona whenever
 

truth411

Member
There are no solid reason for a price reduction at the moment because of them entering the Chinese market this will give them a new business opportunity to exploit and the fact that they will have Playstation Now being sold on Samsung and Sony televisions which gives them ample room for growth this year. There is no real competition forcing them to cut. It is entirely in Sony's hands when they choose to cut the price.
Joke post?
Edit: As for a potential PS4 price cut happening this year, IMO it's a 50/50 chance for that to happen. Personally I believe Sony will cut the price before Morpheus comes out and add value to the PS4 until then. Sony should make a 1TB sku imo.
 
FF15 isn't going to save Japan at all. Its not anywhere near Japan's biggest game in terms of anticipation either. Its gonna do like 200,000 tops and then drop to 1/10th that the very next week i'm sure, just like every other release.

What Sony needs is not to bank on that one game, but to line up continuous software like they did in March. If they can't do that, its gonna drop back down to the 4 digits and stay there. I don't know if they even have the resources to pitch to Japanese devs how to do that, but they need to if they are gonna have any hope this year. There are no real releases lined up until Persona whenever

I never said it would save it, I said it would help keep it afloat. It is also absolutely the most anticipated current gen exclusive in Japan, It's also going to do a lot better than you think, I have no idea why you think it will do so poorly. It will do at least 400K in its first week, maybe more. I also never said they should bank on one game, I said it is smart to drop the price before the biggest PS4 "exclusive" in Japan to help grow the console base. You're making a lot of really weird assumptions.
 

damisa

Member
People keep bringing up that PS4 is selling amazing, and while it is selling well, most of the momentum is due to it's big launch:
PS2 sales after first holiday (Jan 01-Feb02) ~7million
PS4 sales after first holiday (Jan 14-Feb15) ~5.2million
360 sales after first holiday (Jan 06-Feb07) ~4.5million (360 sales were considered nothing special. It was often half of Wii sales)

PS2 and 360 didn't have good multi-game bundles like PS4 has had since last holiday either. If Sony wants to keep normal "first place" console sales it needs a price drop this year.
 

QaaQer

Member
I never said it would save it, I said it would help keep it afloat. It is also absolutely the most anticipated current gen exclusive in Japan, It's also going to do a lot better than you think, I have no idea why you think it will do so poorly. It will do at least 400K in its first week, maybe more. I also never said they should bank on one game, I said it is smart to drop the price before the biggest PS4 "exclusive" in Japan to help grow the console base. You're making a lot of really weird assumptions.

Are you Japanese? If not, anyone in a position to offer an informed opinion care to chime in on FFXV's hometown appeal?
 

Kanann

Member
FF15 isn't going to save Japan at all. Its not anywhere near Japan's biggest game in terms of anticipation either. Its gonna do like 200,000 tops and then drop to 1/10th that the very next week i'm sure, just like every other release.

What Sony needs is not to bank on that one game, but to line up continuous software like they did in March. If they can't do that, its gonna drop back down to the 4 digits and stay there. I don't know if they even have the resources to pitch to Japanese devs how to do that, but they need to if they are gonna have any hope this year. There are no real releases lined up until Persona whenever

I think FFXV will open at million sale at Japan in 1 or at most 3 weeks
 

jjonez18

Member
Are you Japanese? If not, anyone in a position to offer an informed opinion care to chime in on FFXV's hometown appeal?

Here's Famitsu's most wanted http://nintendoeverything.com/famitsus-most-wanted-games-41215/. The FFXV numbers jumped like 400 points over the last week thanks to the demo. I'm not sure how it correlates to sales, but it does tell us people in Japan are excited about FFXV (and Persona too :) )


But I don't think FFXV will come out this year, so a worldwide pricedrop coinciding with it isn't going to happen. Maybe MGS.
 
Here's Famitsu's most wanted http://nintendoeverything.com/famitsus-most-wanted-games-41215/. The FFXV numbers jumped like 400 points over the last week thanks to the demo. I'm not sure how it correlates to sales, but it does tell us people in Japan are excited about FFXV (and Persona too :) )


But I don't think FFXV will come out this year, so a worldwide pricedrop coinciding with it isn't going to happen. Maybe MGS.

Yeah, I don't think FFXV will come out this year obviously, I just think they should drop the price before it comes out in Japan to maximize console sales.
It's also interesting that the PS4 version of Persona 5 is above the PS3 version, last I checked it was the other way around. It'll probably still sell better on PS3 in Japan though.
 

QaaQer

Member
Here's Famitsu's most wanted http://nintendoeverything.com/famitsus-most-wanted-games-41215/. The FFXV numbers jumped like 400 points over the last week thanks to the demo. I'm not sure how it correlates to sales, but it does tell us people in Japan are excited about FFXV (and Persona too :) )


But I don't think FFXV will come out this year, so a worldwide pricedrop coinciding with it isn't going to happen. Maybe MGS.

Thanks. Is there a similar poll available for ff13 say a year out from its release? ...just want some context for the numbers.

& yeah, P5 is looking good. It would have topped the chart if they combined platforms. That trailer was an all time great.
 
Most logical conclusion would be, that a bug is tracking every physical version as the PS4 version. Cause even Germany has the XB1 version at 54.

Well if the MKX Kollectors Edition is anything to go by (considering the PS4 Version bug)...

We have the PS4 Version of the Kollector Edition doing 49 in amazon best sellers and the XBO version taking the 100 spot.
 
A higher install base does not correlate with higher sales, Uncharted 2 to 3 is one such example. Speaking of Uncharted, super interested in seeing how 4 does in NA. The Uncharted franchise was never big at all in America, think 3 did about 700k first month and fuck all after that whereas a new IP in TLOU did close to a million first month. Will be fun to see if TLOU bought over new ND fans and have made them interested in UC4, I'm someone that hated the Uncharted games but TLOU was just too good and the same directors are making 4 so hype is through the roof.

Question is, could UC4 break 1 million first month in NA or will sales go down south after the disappointment that was UC3 in particular? It could go either way since we can't predict the future but my thinking is that it's gonna be the first ND game do complete that feat in NA.

Uncharted is on the upswing from what I can tell. I think it will be the highest selling game in the series so far...US and worldwide.
 
FF15 isn't going to save Japan at all. Its not anywhere near Japan's biggest game in terms of anticipation either. Its gonna do like 200,000 tops and then drop to 1/10th that the very next week i'm sure, just like every other release.

What Sony needs is not to bank on that one game, but to line up continuous software like they did in March. If they can't do that, its gonna drop back down to the 4 digits and stay there. I don't know if they even have the resources to pitch to Japanese devs how to do that, but they need to if they are gonna have any hope this year. There are no real releases lined up until Persona whenever

I guess you forgot about MGSV.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Are you Japanese? If not, anyone in a position to offer an informed opinion care to chime in on FFXV's hometown appeal?

Currently, in my area, there is MUCH more buzz for Persona 5 than FFXV. Unfortunately Persona 5 is also available on PS3 so it hasn't really prompted any interested parties to upgrade their systems. Part of me wishes they would have secured it for PS4 only as it would undoubtedly be their first JP slam dunk software wise and would've pushed a ton of console sales.
 

Felessan

Member
And they will decrease price when it is practical, ie enough consoles are being manufactured to meet the demand of a $299 / £249 console. At the moment it seems to be that this point has not occured yet. Its important to stress that Sony will only price drop when they are ready to, and will not do so as a knee jerk reaction to an Xbox price drop.
Usually it's production that scales to demand and not the other way. There is no point in increase of production if you'll not be able to sell extra stock.

1. The fact that the sell in/ sell through numbers are very close, meaning that they wouldn't be able to sell that many more consoles than they are already shifting.
This fact only tells us that PS4 is liquid item (unlike X1 and WiiU) - so there is no problem with precise estimation of demand, and that Sony have enough production capacity to meet the demand. It does not tell us anything about ceiling for PS4 production.
Both manufacturer and retailers want this numbers to be fairly close as holding stock cost money. So it's a good situation if good are sold just as they arrive to retailers, indicates a good logistics/planning.

My question to those saying a price drop is likely to happen this year is, what is Sony's incentive?
Lower price = more sales, deeper market penetration, greater momentum.
Let's talk about X1. It is losing it's "de facto console" (or even "equal of many") place and thus constantly struggle to maintain it's sales. This becomes more and more serious as time goes forward and less dedicated gamers join curent gen.
Dropping price of PS4 - will speed up its recognition between more price-sensitive crowd and extend range of populace where PS4 have dominant mindshare. This will be a great help even further down the road.
 
OT: Historical precedent has Sony doing price cuts in increments of $100 around this time LTD for each of their home console systems. I'd argue that is one of the most compelling reasons you can argue for the possibility of a price cut this year. (...)

This might be the reason in the end, but I think it's the wrong reason. They should not follow a historical calendar, but their sales numbers and forecasts. If they indicate it's time to lower the price, they should.
History can be a false friend as the gaming world has changed a lot and old good ideas might be bad ones now.
Also, it's about tactics. A lower price and an increase in sales has multiple advantages like userbase, subscriptions, entering new groups of gamers and software sales. But we should not forget that a widening gap would also not only mean some console war triumph, but also would make it even more difficult for MS to pull a Tomb Raider. The bigger the gap the bigger the hat.
 

Vena

Member
I never said it would save it, I said it would help keep it afloat. It is also absolutely the most anticipated current gen exclusive in Japan, It's also going to do a lot better than you think, I have no idea why you think it will do so poorly. It will do at least 400K in its first week, maybe more. I also never said they should bank on one game, I said it is smart to drop the price before the biggest PS4 "exclusive" in Japan to help grow the console base. You're making a lot of really weird assumptions.

There's nothing to really keep afloat, consoles already sunk. Right now the PS4 is trying to reach the WiiUs LTD, and it won't even come close to the PS3s short of some miracle. FFXV isn't going to help much if at all, and will serve as a blip on the radar.

The only things keeping afloat in Japan are the 3DS (because its in its fifth year, and approaching 20mil and long past market saturation) and the Vita (because this is its only market). Everything else is just shades of sad.
 
There's nothing to really keep afloat, consoles already sunk. Right now the PS4 is trying to reach the WiiUs LTD, and it won't even come close to the PS3s short of some miracle. FFXV isn't going to help much if at all, and will serve as a blip on the radar.
You just wait for VR. I tell you this will be a hit in japan and you will learn your summer lesson.
 

RexNovis

Banned
This might be the reason in the end, but I think it's the wrong reason. They should not follow a historical calendar, but their sales numbers and forecasts. If they indicate it's time to lower the price, they should.
History can be a false friend as the gaming world has changed a lot and old good ideas might be bad ones now.
Also, it's about tactics. A lower price and an increase in sales has multiple advantages like userbase, subscriptions, entering new groups of gamers and software sales. But we should not forget that a widening gap would also not only mean some console war triumph, but also would make it even more difficult for MS to pull a Tomb Raider. The bigger the gap the bigger the hat.

Oh I agree that it's merely one of many reasons that a price cut is feasible. I actually think the crux of the decision will lie elsewhere or we would already have had a price cut at this point. However, I do think that historical precedent goes a long way in establishing likelihood. Especially when it comes to the $ amount we are likely to see.

You just wait for VR. I tell you this will be a hit in japan and you will learn your summer lesson.

I see what you did there. Lol. Ya that Summer Lesson thing would be massive here in Japan but I thought I remembered hearing something about it being cancelled.

Should I book that in before or after my meeting with Godot?

What the hell is Godot and what does it have to do with fetishistic sense I fantasy VR games and their appeal in Japan?
 
Oh I agree that it's merely one of many reasons that a price cut is feasible. I actually think the crux of the decision will lie elsewhere or we would already have had a price cut at this point. However, I do think that historical precedent goes a long way in establishing likelihood. Especially when it comes to the $ amount we are likely to see.
Japan, the land of tradition.

I see what you did there. Lol. Ya that Summer Lesson thing would be massive here in Japan but I thought I remembered hearing something about it being cancelled.
Japan, the land of weirdos.

What the hell is Godot and what does it have to do with fetishistic sense I fantasy VR games and their appeal in Japan?
Japan, the land of not-knowing Godot.
 
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