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May 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 9th

A

ArchedThunder

Banned
Javin98 said:
I don't know, I still think the PS4 will take May. The main reason the XB1 won last month was because of the Gamestop trade in deal, which is gone this month.
Click to expand...

Yeah, it's weird that so many think Xbox will take May when it only took April by a tiny margin because it had insane deals.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
jvm said:
I thought this might be of interest, since it demonstrates the power of a hardware promotion.
My emphasis. The whole transcript is interesting. Go read it over at Seeking Alpha.
Click to expand...

Well at the very least it emphasizes how strong the GameStop brand is
 
J

Javin98

Banned
ArchedThunder said:
Yeah, it's weird that so many think Xbox will take May when it only took April by a tiny margin because it had insane deals.
Click to expand...
I don't get it myself, but I sure as hell ain't gonna say they're wrong 'cause either side could be wrong. It's quite hard to tell this month, really. It mostly depends on how well the XB1 white bundle sold.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Guessing that MS bringing back the white models will help them take the month again (though not by much).
Click to expand...

Oh, a new color was released this month? *googles* New LE White XB1 with MCC. Is this the first time a white XB1 has been released to the public? New colors early on can provide some kind of bump (see White PS4 w/ Destiny, though, different situation here), so if it's the first time white has been available, it'd be worth mentioning in the OP.

jvm said:
I thought this might be of interest, since it demonstrates the power of a hardware promotion.
Click to expand...

Cool. The GS promotion was surmised to be a big part of the increase, so it's good to have real reports indicating such. (^_^)
 
3

3rdamention

Member
donny2112 said:
Oh, a new color was released this month? *googles* New LE White XB1 with MCC. Is this the first time a white XB1 has been released to the public? New colors early on can provide some kind of bump (see White PS4 w/ Destiny, though, different situation here), so if it's the first time white has been available, it'd be worth mentioning in the OP.



Cool. The GS promotion was surmised to be a big part of the increase, so it's good to have real reports indicating such. (^_^)
Click to expand...


The Sunset Overdrive Bundle had the White Console, but was pretty damn limited and tough to find like a week after release... I bet this bundle will be produced in huge quantities in comparison...
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Javin98 said:
Can someone flash the Abdiel signal in the night skies now? I'm dying for more insider info.
Click to expand...

Heh. I posted in a different thread a few days ago, talking with Cosmic; it's really hard to make clear statements when things were as close as they were last month. We didn't see anything in our stores to reflect the XB1 winning last month; and considering how much larger the percentages are for GS, that makes sense.

When I check numbers in various districts, the PS4 is consistently the better seller, on a week/week basis. That's been pretty consistent outside of specific outliers, from the Best Buy angle. It's not a tremendous gap, but it is still generally selling better. How that reflects on the larger spectrum? (shrug)

The White XB1 didn't really accelerate things for us. Sells to those looking for a different color, but it's not like they made a big deal out of it, like with the Destiny PS4s last year. But again, that's Best Buy. I can't speak for walmart or GS impact.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
jvm said:
I thought this might be of interest, since it demonstrates the power of a hardware promotion.
My emphasis. The whole transcript is interesting. Go read it over at Seeking Alpha.
Click to expand...
What do they mean in this part?
"GameStop drove two-thirds of the 63% industry growth that Xbox One experienced during the month"

Is it as simple as "two-thirds of XBO sold in april are from Gamestop"? Or is it something else?
 
T

Ty4on

Member
Chobel said:
What do they mean in this part?
"GameStop drove two-thirds of the 63% industry growth that Xbox One experienced during the month"

Is it as simple as "two-thirds of XBO sold in april are from Gamestop"? Or is it something else?
Click to expand...

2/3 of the growth so it grew by 1/3 of 63% in other retailers I would assume.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Chobel said:
What do they mean in this part?
"GameStop drove two-thirds of the 63% industry growth that Xbox One experienced during the month"

Is it as simple as "two-thirds of XBO sold in april are from Gamestop"? Or is it something else?
Click to expand...

2/3rds of the growth. So take last year's April XB1 revenue (they're almost definitely talking about revenue), see how much XB1 sold in revenue this year (should be a 63% YOY increase), and GameStop's XB1 YOY growth in revenue would be 2/3rds of the 63% YOY growth in revenue that XB1 had in April.

With example numbers:

April 2014 XB1 industry spend = $150m (making this up, just an example)
April 2015 XB1 industry spend = $150m * 1.63 = $245m

April YOY growth in revenue for XB1 = $245-$150 = $95m

GameStop's YOY XB1 revenue growth = 2/3 * $95m = $63m

That's how I'd interpret it, anyways.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Abdiel said:
Heh. I posted in a different thread a few days ago, talking with Cosmic; it's really hard to make clear statements when things were as close as they were last month. We didn't see anything in our stores to reflect the XB1 winning last month; and considering how much larger the percentages are for GS, that makes sense.

When I check numbers in various districts, the PS4 is consistently the better seller, on a week/week basis. That's been pretty consistent outside of specific outliers, from the Best Buy angle. It's not a tremendous gap, but it is still generally selling better. How that reflects on the larger spectrum? (shrug)

The White XB1 didn't really accelerate things for us. Sells to those looking for a different color, but it's not like they made a big deal out of it, like with the Destiny PS4s last year. But again, that's Best Buy. I can't speak for walmart or GS impact.
Click to expand...
Thanks for your insight again, Abdiel. Whelp, this month is really hard to predict, it seems. BTW, isn't BB having some sort of deal? How is it working out for the PS4?
 
L

Leko04

Banned
[PS4] 170k
[XB1] 160k
[3DS] 100k
[WIU] 70k


Promotions stop ps4 from dropping. White xb1 reduces drop. No reasoning for wiiU.


Edit. Added 3ds. Reasoning for wiiu and 3ds: nintendo hype and amiibos.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
Abdiel said:
Heh. I posted in a different thread a few days ago, talking with Cosmic; it's really hard to make clear statements when things were as close as they were last month. We didn't see anything in our stores to reflect the XB1 winning last month; and considering how much larger the percentages are for GS, that makes sense.

When I check numbers in various districts, the PS4 is consistently the better seller, on a week/week basis. That's been pretty consistent outside of specific outliers, from the Best Buy angle. It's not a tremendous gap, but it is still generally selling better. How that reflects on the larger spectrum? (shrug)

The White XB1 didn't really accelerate things for us. Sells to those looking for a different color, but it's not like they made a big deal out of it, like with the Destiny PS4s last year. But again, that's Best Buy. I can't speak for walmart or GS impact.
Click to expand...

I miss The Shogun, we will never be good at predicting ever again :(
Thanks for the info again, Abdiel.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Javin98 said:
I don't get it myself, but I sure as hell ain't gonna say they're wrong 'cause either side could be wrong. It's quite hard to tell this month, really. It mostly depends on how well the XB1 white bundle sold.
Click to expand...

It was a slow month; people who missed out on a white XB1 last year can get it now with a free game that they are probably more interested in (MCC; even with its issues), and the next big game for both consoles is Batman. I don't see the point in getting a PS4 for the game right now when there will be a bundle for it next month.

That's just my reasoning for my prediction. I could be wrong though obviously.

donny2112 said:
Oh, a new color was released this month? *googles* New LE White XB1 with MCC. Is this the first time a white XB1 has been released to the public? New colors early on can provide some kind of bump (see White PS4 w/ Destiny, though, different situation here), so if it's the first time white has been available, it'd be worth mentioning in the OP.
Click to expand...

No, not the first time. The first time was alongside Sunset Overdrive and it did really well/sold out fast. I think it will help this month by a decent percentage considering sales in May are (much) lower than November and I would assume that free MCC with it is a bigger deal to sone than free Sunset Overdrive was for the previous white bundle.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Bgamer90 said:
It was a slow month; people who missed out on a white XB1 last year can get it now with a free game that they are probably more interested in (MCC; even with its issues), and the next big game for both consoles is Batman. I don't see the point in getting a PS4 for the game right now when there will be a bundle for it next month.

That's just my reasoning for my prediction. I could be wrong though obviously.
Click to expand...
Sure, but keep in mind that the XB1 won April mostly because of the GS trade in deal. Now the deal is gone and instead the PS4 has deals at BB and GS this month IIRC.

Svartafaran said:
What about the Witcher 3? Didnt it have marketing deals with MS?
Click to expand...
A marketing deal that benefitted the PS4 more than it did to XB1 :p
 
S

Svartafaran

Member
Javin98 said:
Sure, but keep in mind that the XB1 won April mostly because of the GS trade in deal. Now the deal is gone and instead the PS4 has deals at BB and GS this month IIRC.


A marketing deal that benefitted the PS4 more than it did to XB1 :p
Click to expand...



Did I miss something? Did they release the numbers already?
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Svartafaran said:
[/B]

Did I miss something? Did they release the numbers already?
Click to expand...
No, not really. But we've heard that the PS4 version of the game sold better than the XB1 version. Not an indication of anything, but the sales in the UK was heavily tipped in the PS4's favour, about doubled.

Obliterator said:
Maybe, but Witcher will likely still do big numbers on the Xbone. Its a Western RPG and those have always done very well on the Xbox platform
Click to expand...
Most likely, not denying that. But the PS4 version likely sold better.
 
SargerusBR

SargerusBR

I love Pokken!
[3DS] 80K
[PS4] 200K
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 140K

Top 3 software will be:

1. The Witcher 3
2. GTA V
3. Battlefield Hardline
 
S

Svartafaran

Member
Javin98 said:
No, not really. But we've heard that the PS4 version of the game sold better than the XB1 version. Not an indication of anything, but the sales in the UK was heavily tipped in the PS4's favour, about twice.
Click to expand...

Isnt the US where XB1 is the biggest in terms of sales?
 
Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
Javin98 said:
No, not really. But we've heard that the PS4 version of the game sold better than the XB1 version. Not an indication of anything, but the sales in the UK was heavily tipped in the PS4's favour, about twice.
Click to expand...

Yup, 66% of physical sales were on PS4 whilst 34% were on Xbox One. (UK Console sell through via GfK Chart-Track)

Svartafaran said:
Isnt the US where XB1 is the biggest in terms of sales?
Click to expand...

Depends on the game, but usually the PS4 still has an edge over the Xbox One in regards to software sales, mainly thanks to the larger install base.

And yes, USA is biggest but so is the UK comparatively. They are Xbox One's two biggest markets by far.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Svartafaran said:
Isnt the US where XB1 is the biggest in terms of sales?
Click to expand...
Yeah, but the UK is its second biggest market. Again, it was not an indication of how the sales may turn out in the US, but the gap was pretty shocking.

ZhugeEX said:
Yup, 66% of physical sales were on PS4 whilst 34% were on Xbox One. (UK Console sell through via GfK Chart-Track)
Click to expand...
Yeah, pretty shocking. Wonder how the gap will be in the US.
 
S

Svartafaran

Member
ZhugeEX said:
Yup, 66% of physical sales were on PS4 whilst 34% were on Xbox One. (UK Console sell through via GfK Chart-Track)



Depends on the game, but usually the PS4 still has an edge over the Xbox One in regards to software sales, mainly thanks to the larger install base.

And yes, USA is biggest but so is the UK comparatively. They are Xbox One's two biggest markets by far.
Click to expand...

thx for the info, I need to follow these threads more. Do you remember if MKX sold more on the xbox one since sony had the marketing deals.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Svartafaran said:
I know but the hype with MKX was through the roof. I expected atleast 2million.
Click to expand...

Well those are unreasonable expectations. I predicted 1.5 million so I thought it would be slightly better at retail and it came in a little bit under that. 2 million is a crazy high number
 
S

Svartafaran

Member
Maybe I am being unreasonable but MKX hype was so huge. I saw MKX stuff everywhere where I live so imagined it would be insane in the US.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Svartafaran said:
Maybe I am being unreasonable but MKX hype was so huge. I saw MKX stuff everywhere where I live so imagined it would be insane in the US.
Click to expand...

1.25 million in the US alone for an M rated fighting game only on current generation IS pretty insane. Its the biggest launch of 2015 so far
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Interesting information in this thread already. Think I got my predictions all set, and probably won't update them again.
 
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