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May 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 9th

O

On Demand

Banned
John Bender said:
PS4 is on #25
XBO is on #32 and #47

So XBO won the "Amazon War" imo.
Click to expand...

Doesn't work like that unless you have actual numbers. I mean you could also say the gap between 32 and 47 is so large that the PS4 being at 25 definitely outsold them both combined.

When we get into that territory we're just making things up. You can't tell anything from the spacing as I proved awhile back.
 
A

AP90

Member
[3DS] 116K
[PS4] 150K
[WIU] 48K
[XB1] 160K

The calm before the storm of E3..
-Thinking that the hype buildup for Halo 5 + Ads (also, white MCC bundle released) and upcoming Win10 release may start having some positive traction.
 
D

donny2112

Member
TheCarrotKiller said:
No notable releases this month what so ever?!
Click to expand...

It's worth mentioning that the "Hardware Impacting Events" part in the OP isn't there to just list notable releases. It's there to list notable software/hardware/pricing items that would likely significantly impact sales. Early on in the life of a system, big name software can push changes in hardware sales. As the gen goes on, just having a big software title doesn't move the hardware sales so much, though. For this month, Witcher 3 is a notable title that was released, but it doesn't seem likely to significantly impact either PS4 or XB1 sales for the month.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Well the one thing for sure worth noting, is how The Witcher 3 is gonna blow past all expectations. Congrats to CD Projekt Red in advance
 
J

John Bender

Banned
Primethius said:
I don't see how you can suggest that without definitive numbers.
Click to expand...
On Demand said:
Doesn't work like that unless you have actual numbers. I mean you could also say the gap between 32 and 47 is so large that the PS4 being at 25 definitely outsold them both combined.

When we get into that territory we're just making things up. You can't tell anything from the spacing as I proved awhile back.
Click to expand...
Well, like I said, that's how I see it.

#32 + #47 >>>>>>>> #25

Win for MS last month, imo.
 
E

Elios83

Member
Ummm it has become quite difficult to predict numbers in the US btw this month I wanna bet on the fact that the Witcher 3 pushed PS4 and XB1 numbers a bit higher than expected based on April's results.

[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 160K
[3DS] 110K
[WIU] 55K
 
M

Mister Megative

Banned
Whoa! My first post! Hey guys! Been a lurker for years! This is pretty awesome!

And now for my first predictions! Too bad I missed the Aqua era :(

[PS4] 195k
[XB1] 170K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 66K

I'm thinking Witcher 3 may have moved some units and helped mitigate the classic May drop from April, much like Watch Dogs did for PS4 last year. Maybe a small bump for Wii U due to Splatoon.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
konamicoded said:
Whoa! My first post! Hey guys! Been a lurker for years! This is pretty awesome!

And now for my first predictions! Too bad I missed the Aqua era :(

[PS4] 195k
[XB1] 170K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 66K

I'm thinking Witcher 3 may have moved some units and helped mitigate the classic May drop from April, much like Watch Dogs did for PS4 last year. Maybe a small bump for Wii U due to Splatoon.
Click to expand...

Congrats! Welcome to GAF! While you're in your junior period best to stay away from controversial threads and dont post some crazy FUD in sales threads and you should be golden
 
M

Mister Megative

Banned
Obliterator said:
Congrats! Welcome to GAF! While you're in your junior period best to stay away from controversial threads and dont post some crazy FUD in sales threads and you should be golden
Click to expand...

You don't have to tell me twice. I've watched the downfall of so many juniors in the NPD threads over the years. Mine hands shall remaineth clean.
 
Swass

Swass

Member
[3DS] 115K
[PS4] 180K
[WIU] 75K
[XB1] 160K

And I predict some sort of MS PR about how the Xbox One is selling so well that it is up over 200% yoy even though they self mutilated May last year.
 
L

Leko04

Banned
John Bender said:
Well, like I said, that's how I see it.

#32 + #47 >>>>>>>> #25

Win for MS last month, imo.
Click to expand...

This is new situation (ps4 has 7 place lead but xb1 has 2 SKUs relatively close each other)
Don't you think that gamestop and best buy deals are more meaningful than amazon positions?
edit: also looking at top 20, I think ps4 won (better console offers from outside of amazon, but people may have used amazon to buy games psn money and controllers)
But soon we are much wiser.
 
S

Sterok

Member
[3DS] 120k
[PS4] 167k
[WIU] 55k
[XB1] 175k

Splatoon should be able to do at least 200K. Can't really see it selling less than it did in Japan (where it did 150K first week).
 
O

On Demand

Banned
John Bender said:
Well, like I said, that's how I see it.

#32 + #47 >>>>>>>> #25

Win for MS last month, imo.
Click to expand...

You can see it how you want to but you're wrong. There's so many variables that come into play with these rankings that it's impossible to come to a conclusion by just looking at the positions. Much less combining them.
 
H

Hedon

Banned
On Demand said:
You can see it how you want to but you're wrong. There's so many variables that come into play with these rankings that it's impossible to come to a conclusion by just looking at the positions. Much less combining them.
Click to expand...

He is neither wrong or right at this particular time. We will know if he was correct or not after Thursday.
 
L

Leko04

Banned
Hedon said:
He is neither wrong or right at this particular time. We will know if he was correct or not after Thursday.
Click to expand...

He is wrong or right already. We just do not know yet if he is wrong or right.

edit: About xb1 selling more. That chart position combining is just hilarious. We need amazon player here to tell from sales data that which won on amazon. lol. Gamestop CEO giving sales data would make predicting so much easier.
 
Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
John Bender said:
Well, like I said, that's how I see it.

#32 + #47 >>>>>>>> #25

Win for MS last month, imo.
Click to expand...

Well it's a fairly simple calculation.

All you got to do is work out the difference between 47 and 32 which is 15, then work out the difference between 25 and 32 which is 7. Then you do 15 x 7 which is 105.

Then you got to work out the average between between 32 and 47 which is 39.5, lets call it 40, and add it to 105. So we can quite clearly see that the Xbox One should sell 145k.

Now we do the same for PS4. We got 25, then times it by 7 (difference of 32 and 25) and you get 175k.

So, it's quite clear that the PS4 will sell 175k and the Xbox One will sell 145K.

Did I mention I have a degree in Math?
 
T

TheCarrotKiller

Banned
donny2112 said:
It's worth mentioning that the "Hardware Impacting Events" part in the OP isn't there to just list notable releases. It's there to list notable software/hardware/pricing items that would likely significantly impact sales. Early on in the life of a system, big name software can push changes in hardware sales. As the gen goes on, just having a big software title doesn't move the hardware sales so much, though. For this month, Witcher 3 is a notable title that was released, but it doesn't seem likely to significantly impact either PS4 or XB1 sales for the month.
Click to expand...
Oh I see, stupid of me to think otherwise, of course The Witcher released this month. With no extreme marketing towards one console for The Witcher it has affected both consoles likewise, although I may increase my sales for them both because of the release. I guess it was because of no "new releases" list, miss Aquamarines compilation :(.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
ZhugeEX said:
Well it's a fairly simple calculation.

All you got to do is work out the difference between 47 and 32 which is 15, then work out the difference between 25 and 32 which is 7. Then you do 15 x 7 which is 105.

Then you got to work out the average between between 32 and 47 which is 39.5, lets call it 40, and add it to 105. So we can quite clearly see that the Xbox One should sell 145k.

Now we do the same for PS4. We got 25, then times it by 7 (difference of 32 and 25) and you get 175k.

So, it's quite clear that the PS4 will sell 175k and the Xbox One will sell 145K.

Did I mention I have a degree in Math?
Click to expand...

Seems legit, coming from GraphGuy/ChartMan :p
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
John Bender said:
Well, like I said, that's how I see it.

#32 + #47 >>>>>>>> #25

Win for MS last month, imo.
Click to expand...

You're probably joking, but just in case you're not, last month was a very different scenario.

April:
PS4 = #41
XB1 = #42 & #52

May:
PS4 = #25
XB1 = #32 & #47

Last month it seems (again, hard to tell without actual numbers) that the ACU XB1 SKU was right behind the PS4 in sales, and the MCC bundle pushed it just on top possibly by a few hundred units, if that (the overall NPD difference was something like 13k for the whole US NPD I believe?)

Here the difference between top PS4 SKU seller and top XB1 SKU seller is greater, so although it is technically -possible- that the XB1 would be on top (after all, Amazon is merely used as an indicator beause ≈ 5% of sales makes for a generally adequate model as long as things aren't too narrow), it is less likely than last month.
 
J

John Bender

Banned
On Demand said:
You can see it how you want to but you're wrong. There's so many variables that come into play with these rankings that it's impossible to come to a conclusion by just looking at the positions. Much less combining them.
Click to expand...
I am? So you know the sales numbers of last month and the PS4 won?

ZhugeEX said:
Well it's a fairly simple calculation.

All you got to do is work out the difference between 47 and 32 which is 15, then work out the difference between 25 and 32 which is 7. Then you do 15 x 7 which is 105.

Then you got to work out the average between between 32 and 47 which is 39.5, lets call it 40, and add it to 105. So we can quite clearly see that the Xbox One should sell 145k.

Now we do the same for PS4. We got 25, then times it by 7 (difference of 32 and 25) and you get 175k.

So, it's quite clear that the PS4 will sell 175k and the Xbox One will sell 145K.

Did I mention I have a degree in Math?
Click to expand...

0077_8za3.gif
 
BeforeU

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
[3DS] 80K
[PS4] 185K
[XB1] 170K
[WIU] 30K

I will give slight edge to PS4 this month. All the Witcher coverage on every site was on PS4. If Microsoft seriously paid money for marketing they fucked up good lol
 
O

On Demand

Banned
John Bender said:
I am? So you know the sales numbers of last month and the PS4 won?
Click to expand...

You can't add rankings together and assume they mean more sales than another item that's ranked much higher.

And Amazon was wrong last month on the winner. No it wasn't because of the 2 XB1 SKU's making up for more totals sales, it was because gamestop had a better deal. Which brings me to my next point that you have to take other retailers into account also. More so when sales will be swayed towards the retailer with the best deal at the time.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Swass said:
And I predict some sort of MS PR about how the Xbox One is selling so well that it is up over 200% yoy even though they self mutilated May last year.
Click to expand...

(O.O) It was their plan all along ...

Darth Smurf X said:
Schrödinger's NPD?
Click to expand...

That's what I was thinking ...

Purest 78 said:
Thank you I never actually read the OP in NPD thread's Guess I will now.
Click to expand...

Well, the OP in NPD Results threads is usually not updated due to the policy of only updating with confirmed/non-leaked numbers. The OP of the Prediction thread can deal with more certainties, though, like last month's sales, this month's coverage, and this month's release timings. Therefore if you have more of a metadata question (e.g. coverage period, NPD release date/time), this OP's good! (^_^)

On Demand said:
More so when sales will be swayed towards the retailer with the best deal at the time.
Click to expand...

Yep, we've seen that happen a lot during Holiday sales where the stuff on sale that week will see a big boost compared to normal, so you really need to be aware of what's on sale and where to sort of weigh how important each part is.
 
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