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[Chris1964]

YSO predictions

Week 45, 2015 (Nov 2 - Nov 8)

01. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops III < 145k (average 125k)
02. [3DS] Disney Magic World 2: My Happy Life < 85k (average 75k)
03. [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops III < 55k (average 45k)

 

[Sammy Samusu]

It's been two weeks since the last proper MHX Comg comparison.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=181859165&postcount=204

Come through NXbro.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

What were the numbers for Blops 2 and Advanced Warfare?

 

[Nirolak]

Is it? Website only mentions "Scheduled for 2016" if it is indeed coming before March then they're expecting less than a million for the game.

Miitomo, not Monster Hunter.

 

[Oregano]

Miitomo, not Monster Hunter.

I definitely think NX will be revealed before the end of the fiscal year. I even think it could be as early as January. They might just be waiting until the end of the holidays like they did with the N3DS.

 

[Refreshment.01]

I definitely think NX will be revealed before the end of the fiscal year. I even think it could be as early as January. They might just be waiting until the end of the holidays like they did with the N3DS.

Not a chance. E3.

Reason why you think it' ll be so early is probably because hype of the Nintendo Direct comeback. That's my guess XD

Edit: Fiscal year ends March 31. Is this correct?

 

[Jon Carter]

Are you expecting a notably early year unveil for the NX?

The game is out in March.

I thought Sony's February PS4 reveal was pretty smart. Enough time for hype to build up, but not too early that people will lose interest - like with the Wii U. I eventually got one and I love it, but I wasn't hyped for it before launch.

So that's what I'd like to see. Microsoft's reveal timing wasn't horrible, but I felt it was too close to E3 to build hype.

 

[Oregano]

Not a chance. E3.

Reason why you think it' ll be so early is probably because hype of the Nintendo Direct comeback. That's my guess XD

Edit: Fiscal year ends March 31. Is this correct?

No, I think it's because the system is releasing next year and an E3 reveal would be way too late.

Not to mention the fact that third parties definitely have information now and they'll want to reveal it before it leaks.

Yes, the fiscal years ends in March.

 

[Refreshment.01]

No, I think it's because the system is releasing next year and an E3 reveal would be way too late.

Not to mention the fact that third parties definitely have information now and they'll want to reveal it before it leaks.

Yes, the fiscal years ends in March.

Well it mostly depends on when do you think the system will release. When do you think it' ll launch?

im curious about why do you think E3 will be too late?

Also when i said E3, a better wording would have been "Around E3". Since there's a trend for gaming companies to have separate announcements/shows/conference to unveil their products. So near the middle part of the year it's what i think.

i don't consider there's a need for Nintendo to rush out this one, even if it's due time for their next handheld system. The climate for dedicated gaming devices is too adverse for them right now, so in that sense the product should be an unique concept with enough maturity (anti Wii U basically) or at the least have a battery of key software rounded up for consecutive and timely releases. One, the other or both require time.

There's key software coming to their platforms: Wii U up until march and 3DS beyond that (Japan specially) no need to get attention away from them. So there's no rush since both of their devices are in cruise control now, things won't get better but they won't get much worse either.

Edit: Not to mention there's the DeNA and Mobile stuff from them. What you will get by March is their new service and online aacount system.

In short: think is unlikely for the reasons above (key 3DS/Wii U games, mobile busyness and new account system) that they' ll shove all that plus a new system unveil.

 

[Maniel]

What were the numbers for Blops 2 and Advanced Warfare?

02./00. [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Subtitled Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) {2012.11.22} (¥7.980) - 197.350 / NEW

02./00. [PS3] Call of Duty: Ghosts - Subtitled Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) {2013.11.14} (¥7.980) - 190.631 / NEW

01./00. [PS3] Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare - Subtitled Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) {2014.11.13} (¥8.424) - 79.586 / NEW
03./00. [PS4] Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare - Subtitled Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) {2014.11.13} (¥8.424) - 64.060 / NEW

looks like BO3 is a return to form for the series even if it won't hit its peak sales again.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

02./00. [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Subtitled Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) {2012.11.22} (¥7.980) - 197.350 / NEW

02./00. [PS3] Call of Duty: Ghosts - Subtitled Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) {2013.11.14} (¥7.980) - 190.631 / NEW

01./00. [PS3] Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare - Subtitled Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) {2014.11.13} (¥8.424) - 79.586 / NEW
03./00. [PS4] Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare - Subtitled Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) {2014.11.13} (¥8.424) - 64.060 / NEW

looks like BO3 is a return to form for the series even if it won't hit its peak sales again.

Thank you!

Yeah, AW was quite a drop but Blops III should get things back up to a healthier level overall.

 

[test_account]

I mean, its basically confirmation that price hasn't really been the underlying issue (not that there was much mystery there). The product simply isn't for the market. (And that is why the slow demise of the Vita will be very, very interesting to watch from a "what happens to all this software" perspective that hiska was highlighting earlier.)

Of course as you say, these are kind of irrelevant numbers. Whether its at 18k or at 22k, its not much of a difference. Or whether the WiiU is at 9k or 11k.

Yeah, the 5k yen pricedrop alone wouldnt change everything for the better a lot, that is true. I guess maybe we will see another 5k yen pricedrop in 2016, maybe a new form factor as well.

yes, it will, but not this year. Probabily in April / May 2016.

I agree. January/Februrary can be slow months though, but we will see


------

EDIT: Regarding mobile games, are there any examples of successful apps or games that arent F2P? Naturally "successful" can be kinda subjective (depends on how much that was expected of it), but are there any notable success stories regarding this?

 

[Oregano]

Well it mostly depends on when do you think the system will release. When do you think it' ll launch?

im curious about why do you think E3 will be too late?

Also when i said E3, a better wording would have been "Around E3". Since there's a trend for gaming companies to have separate announcements/shows/conference to unveil their products. So near the middle part of the year it's what i think.

i don't consider there's a need for Nintendo to rush out this one, even if it's due time for their next handheld system. The climate for dedicated gaming devices is too adverse for them right now, so in that sense the product should be an unique concept with enough maturity (anti Wii U basically) or at the least have a battery of key software rounded up for consecutive and timely releases. One, the other or both require time.

There's key software coming to their platforms: Wii U up until march and 3DS beyond that (Japan specially) no need to get attention away from them. So there's no rush since both of their devices are in cruise control now, things won't get better but they won't get much worse either.

Edit: Not to mention there's the DeNA and Mobile stuff from them. What you will get by March is their new service and online aacount system.

In short: think is unlikely for the reasons above (key 3DS/Wii U games, mobile busyness and new account system) that they' ll shove all that plus a new system unveil.

I think it will launch in 2016, in which case a reveal half way through the year will mean they have to communicate a lot in a short amount of time and have a very small window to make adjustments(which is not exactly Nintendo's strength).

I also don't think they can afford to leave the ailing 3DS as their flagship product for another year. It's getting some big games in Japan but it's dying a painful death in the west and because of its age it's missing out on a lot of software in Japan. I also don't think it's a great idea to let their mindshare completely evaporate before launching a new system.

On Nintendo's front I'd definitely disagree with the idea that the 3DS and Wii U have key software lined up. On the Wii U front you have vapourware Zelda(and Star Fox I guess) and on 3DS you have nothing announced right now(although a Pokémon game is due).

You didn't address the thing about leaks either. If Nintendo wait until half way through the year to even show the thing then details are going to leak and Nintendo won't be able to control the message at all.

EDIT: I'd also say Nintendo probably doesn't want to be perceived as letting their dedicated devices die off whilst launching their mobile games. That would make it much harder to sell new devices when they actually get around to releasing them.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

YSO predictions

Week 45, 2015 (Nov 2 - Nov 8)

01. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops III < 145k (average 125k)
02. [3DS] Disney Magic World 2: My Happy Life < 85k (average 75k)
03. [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops III < 55k (average 45k)

About what i expected for Black Ops III. Wonder how much will boost the PS4 too... I'm sure the bundle will help very well.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Define "reveal".

NX was "revealed" earlier this year.

If you want to see the console itself, I think you are going to have to wait until E3.

 

[Vena]

NX was revealed when it was mentioned with DQXI, which I'd say was a good foot to start on as it puts the narrative on "games".

The "reveal" during the presser for mobile could easily have been passed as "everyone is always making a new console" but when you announce a *game*, then you've pretty much revealed it. It was said in the old thread on the reveal for DQXI, but I think it was pre-scripted of an "accident" during the presser. (For Japan, anyway, since I know at least anecdotally that the NX has spread by WoM because of DQXI's reveal. The west is obviously a different story.)

Spoiler

Its probably the best reveal for a console Nintendo has ever had! All they needed to do was have SE do it for them.

 

[Xbro]

It's been two weeks since the last proper MHX Comg comparison.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=181859165&postcount=204

Come through NXbro.

Here's the current.

28 days remaining:

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 2467pt
[3DS] Monster Hunter Cross - 1706pt
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4G - 1531pt

 

[Oregano]

Define "reveal".

NX was "revealed" earlier this year.

If you want to see the console itself, I think you are going to have to wait until E3.

NX was revealed when it was mentioned with DQXI, which I'd say was a good foot to start on as it puts the narrative on "games".

The "reveal" during the presser for mobile could easily have been passed as "everyone is always making a new console" but when you announce a *game*, then you've pretty much revealed it. It was said in the old thread on the reveal for DQXI, but I think it was pre-scripted of an "accident" during the presser. (For Japan, anyway, since I know at least anecdotally that the NX has spread by WoM because of DQXI's reveal. The west is obviously a different story.)

Spoiler

Its probably the best reveal for a console Nintendo has ever had! All they needed to do was have SE do it for them.

I mean a reveal in the sense that we know what the actual system is. DQXI being announced isn't actuall that notable, games are announced for nebulous next gen systems quite often. It also actually tells us nothing about the system because it could easily just be the 3DS version, which is probably the only reason they got away with it.

 

[Vena]

I mean a reveal in the sense that we know what the actual system is. DQXI being announced isn't actuall that notable, games are announced for nebulous next gen systems quite often. It also actually tells us nothing about the system because it could easily just be the 3DS version, which is probably the only reason they got away with it.

Porting the 3DS version would require porting the engine as its built on proprietary solutions and very much coded specifically for the 3DS, and I have a high doubt the NX will even have two screens/clam-shell. What would you port at that point?

No one is going to port that (its a waste of resources, and the 3DS version isn't the version who's resources will have trouble being recouped).

The UE4 version is made to be port-able, that's the whole point of such an engine. Ease of platform agnosticism and development.

 

[Refreshment.01]

Oregano:

You left the most important part about the launch date. Of course it will be 2016 but when in 2016?

The latest the system could be released in 2016 is between september/november window. The 3DS with the future announced releases could bare the weight/wait XD Correct me if im worng, but i think there are important 3DS games remaining in Japan beyond Nintendo's last quarter. i single out Japan in the handheld case because it's their most active market for that device.

For Wii U in the rest of the world there's Star Fox, FExST, Pokken AND RUMORED: Twilight Princess HD. That's about right for half a year of Wii U releases and then there's potential DLC for stuff like Splatoon, Mario Maker and Smash.

i do agree it makes sense to single out Zelda in this case because there's the chance for a simultaneous release. Speaking of which: Don't you think Zelda would make a fatastic NX launch game? In which case Zelda release date should clue us about the NX one, so it's highly likely a November launch.

 

[Oregano]

Porting the 3DS version would require porting the engine as its built on proprietary solutions and very much coded specifically for the 3DS, and I have a high doubt the NX will even have two screens/clam-shell. What would you port at that point?

No one is going to port that (its a waste of resources, and the 3DS version isn't the version who's resources will have trouble being recouped).

The UE4 version is made to be port-able, that's the whole point of such an engine. Ease of platform agnosticism and development.

Well that's all based on the assumption that whatever NX is will support UE4(for the record I think it's a pretty safe assumption) but until it's actually revealed we don't know that for sure.

I think people are really overestimating how hard it is to port a 3DS game to another system anyway. Ganbarion managed to port One Piece Unlimited Red to Vita/PS3/Wii U despite having never worked on those systems before(well they helped with Wii Fit U) and that was a very high spec 3DS game.

Oregano:

You left the most important part about the launch date. Of course it will be 2016 but when in 2016?

The latest the system could be released in 2016 is between september/november window. The 3DS with the future announced releases could bare the weight/wait XD Correct me if im worng, but i think there are important 3DS games remaining in Japan beyond Nintendo's last quarter. i single out Japan in the handheld case because it's their most active market for that device.

For Wii U in the rest of the world there's Star Fox, FExST and Pokken. That's about right for half a year of Wii U releases and then there's potential DLC for stuff like Splatoon, Mario Maker and Smash.

i do agree it makes sense to single out Zelda in this case because there's the chance for a simultaneous release. Speaking of which: Don't you think Zelda would make a fatastic NX launch game? In which case Zelda release date should clue us about the NX one, so it's highly likely a November launch.

I think it's a November launch but then a summer reveal is super late. Do you think they'll have less than six months between reveal & release? That gives them no time to adjust anything based on public reaction and going from the present it gives leakers about 8 months to divulge every detail.

...and in the case of the 3DS they have to consider their weakest market, not their strongest. If the 3DS is completely dead in the west it makes it much harder to launch its successor regardless of strength in Japan.

EDIT: The Xbox One was revealed in May and they quite obviously had to scramble to readjust. I don't think that's an ideal path to take.

 

[Refreshment.01]

I think it's a November launch but then a summer reveal is super late. Do you think they'll have less than six months between reveal & release? That gives them no time to adjust anything based on public reaction and going from the present it gives leakers about 8 months to divulge every detail.

...and in the case of the 3DS they have to consider their weakest market, not their strongest. If the 3DS is completely dead in the west it makes it much harder to launch its successor regardless of strength in Japan.

EDIT: The Xbox One was revealed in May and they quite obviously had to scramble to readjust. I don't think that's an ideal path to take.

The highlighted would make more sense if:

1) There were actually any competition in the dedicated handheld market. There's none.

2) If the west (mainly developers) cared anything about dedicated handheld devices. Right now they don't care much about them. Then there's the general public and how happy they are using smart devices for gaming on the go.

Regarding the public reaction to the device and time for adjustments. i think the MS blunder is affecting your judgement here and in any case it had more to do with a politic than anything related to the console itself. Historically Nintendo is less influenced by public reactions, that's why we have devices that tend to defy market trends from them more than the other 2 hardware manufacturers.

 

[Oregano]

The highlighted would make more sense if:

1) There were actually any competition in the dedicated handheld market. There's none.

2) If the west (mainly developers) cared anything about dedicated handheld devices. Right now they don't care much about it. The public is happy using their smart devices for gaming on the go.

Regarding the public reaction to the device and time for adjustments. i think the MS blunder is affecting your judgement here and in any case it had more to do with a politic than anything related to the console itself. Historically Nintendo is less influenced by public reactions, that's why we have devices that tend to defy market trends from them.

If that's the attitude Nintendo is taking then they might as well not bother. They really cannot rest on their laurels, especially when it comes to the communication of their products which they've massively struggled with this gen.

Even less people play their console than their handheld in the west. It will be DOA.

 

[Eolz]

I mean a reveal in the sense that we know what the actual system is. DQXI being announced isn't actuall that notable, games are announced for nebulous next gen systems quite often. It also actually tells us nothing about the system because it could easily just be the 3DS version, which is probably the only reason they got away with it.

If you are talking about just which kind of system it will be, I'm pretty sure we'll know that in the January Investors Meeting yeah. Seeing it physically and with complete details? After the fiscal year meeting imo.

 

[Oregano]

If you are talking about just which kind of system it will be, I'm pretty sure we'll know that in the January Investors Meeting yeah. Seeing it physically and with complete details? After the fiscal year meeting imo.

That's possible, I guess. Important DS specs(like dual screens and the fact that it was portable) were announced in January 2004 for a release in November 2004. That was over a decade ago though.

The full 3DS reveal was a full 9 months before launch(and it was formally announced 12 months before launch) and the full Wii U reveal was nearly 18 months before launch(and it's formal announcement was 2 months earlier).

I think Nintendo will cut down from both of those(especially the Wii U) but less than six months build up is cutting it short and both 3DS&Wii U were announced early to pre-empt leaks.

 

[horuhe]

Rakuten Books Ranking Week 44, 2015.

01./00. [PSV] God Eater Resurrection
02./01. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: TriForce Heroes
03./00. [PSV] Yomawari
04./02. [3DS] PriPara Mezase! Idol Grand Prix No.1!
05./04. [WiiU] Splatoon
06./00. [PS4] God Eater Resurrection
07./07. [3DS] Picross 3D 2
08./05. [3DS] Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer
09./08. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters: White Dog Squad
10./09. [WiiU] Super Mario Maker

 

[Ōkami]

1. [PSV] God Eater: Resurrection - 383pts
2. [PSV] Yomawari - 72pts
3. [PS4] God Eater: Resurrection - 62pts
4. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Triforce Heroes - 48pts
5. [WIU] Splatoon - 35pts
6. [PSV] Alia's Carnival! Sacrament - 21pts
7. [PS4] God Eater Resurrection (Crossplay Pack & Anime Vol. 1) - 18pts
8. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition - 17pts
9. [3DS] Famista Returns - 17pts
10. [WIU] Super Mario Maker - 15pts
11. [3DS] 7th Dragon III: Code VFD - 14pts
12. [PS3] NBA 2K16 - 13pts
13. [3DS] Yokai Watch Busters: White Dog Squad - 13pts
14. [PS4] NBA 2K16 - 12pts
15. [3DS] Picross 3D 2 - 12pts
16. [3DS] Yokai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team - 11pts
17. [WIU] Dragon Quest X: Inishie no Ryuu no Denshou Online - 10pts
18. [PSV] Grand Theft Auto V (Bargain Edition) - 9pts
19. [3DS] Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer - 9pts
20. [PSV] Love Revenge (Limited Edition) - 8pts

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

Holy friken shit Splatoon is up.
Also I know Amazon JP isnt reliable but the Splatoon bundle is almost in the top 20(mk8 bundle never did that).

 

[ivysaur12]

What da fuq Splatoon

 

[Kresnik258]

Wonder what the points:sales ratio for Yomawari will be, because that is a good result on COMG weekly for an NIS game.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Splatoon seems pretty high.


Hard to judge Zelda legs from that....

 

[Sammy Samusu]

I'm such a flop Nintendrone, I still haven't bought Splatoon.

At this point I'm just waiting for a digital Black Friday sale. Do not disappoint me, Nintendo.

Here's the current.

28 days remaining:

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 2467pt
[3DS] Monster Hunter Cross - 1706pt
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4G - 1531pt

Thanks!

 

[Scum]

I love how Splatoon is referred to as a 'series' in Nintendo slides during the meeting just gone. Looking at these numbers, Spla2oon must happen.

 

[BishopLamont]

there is absolutely no point in rushing or releasing the nx prematurely, the ds and wii u is both in their own world at this point in terms of competition as one has been DOA and the other is going through the natural stage of end-life, releasing them early won't affect the ps4/xb1 as the success of it relies on it's own strength and offerings, rather than strategic timing against other platforms

a successful launch is top priority, look at 3ds and wii u which both suffered severely due to premature or inadequate launches, if nx flops out of the gate then it's gonna be another generation of nintendo consoles being ignored again by third parties and consumers alike on a WW basis

i have always been for a launch asap but not if it compromises a successful launch and with the nx's concept of "shared games" it'd be a bone-headed move not to take advantage of that by bolstering the launch period library of games to its full potential

with the delay of miimoto, i assume their overall plans have been delayed slightly to q4 2016 release, when it was likely going to be a bit earlier before

the fact that nintendo managed to get dq11 as a nx title shows that they are focusing on a solid library in its early life and as it should, like i said, a successful launch is top priority, theres nothing worse than droughts for a console that relies so much on first party support only, nintendo simply can't play it like sony and ms does, they have to be much more proactive than that

dq11, pokemon z, yokai watch, monster hunter stories, zelda are all easily early nx titles if nintendo wants it to happen and i dont see why they wouldn't when 3ds is no longer a priority

Here's the current.

28 days remaining:

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 2467pt
[3DS] Monster Hunter Cross - 1706pt
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4G - 1531pt

looks like X will open up bigger than 4G but legs won't be as great as capcom expects 2.5m by Q1 2016, which is a bit less than the expectactions for 4G, but it's also possible capcom lowballed X after overestimating 4G sales expectations based on better than expected sales from MH4

 

[Nirolak]

I think it's a November launch but then a summer reveal is super late. Do you think they'll have less than six months between reveal & release? That gives them no time to adjust anything based on public reaction and going from the present it gives leakers about 8 months to divulge every detail.

...and in the case of the 3DS they have to consider their weakest market, not their strongest. If the 3DS is completely dead in the west it makes it much harder to launch its successor regardless of strength in Japan.

EDIT: The Xbox One was revealed in May and they quite obviously had to scramble to readjust. I don't think that's an ideal path to take.

I don't think the DRM stuff was actually the core issue with the Xbox One. It didn't help, obviously, but I'd frame the Xbox One's primary issue as follows.

Almost everyone buying a non-Nintendo console is doing so to play third party games. It's the vast, vast majority of what they purchase, and even on just the individual platforms themselves, third party games significantly outsell first party titles.

Sony was selling a $400 box that ran games well. Microsoft was selling a $500 box that ran games notably worse. Early adopters are overwhelmingly core gamers, so they definitely noticed this. Even when Microsoft dropped the price, they couldn't get rid of the latter problem. Since there were no gaping flaws in the PS4's setup like the early generation multiplayer setup of the PS3, the PS4 was the easy choice for everyone buying a console to play Call of Duty: Ghosts, Battlefield 4, Assassin's Creed 4, or Far Cry 4, which was basically everyone.

Once those people jumped on, all their friends were going to buy a PS4 no matter what, since they wanted to play multiplayer with their early adopter friend. After about six months of that, the generation was effectively over, and was extremely solidified after the following holiday period.

The issue the NX console will face is that even if it's more powerful, since it won't be a full generation leap, it's not going to peel friendships off the existing two consoles. The NX handheld will be a market unto itself from a dedicated device perspective, but given how much Western publishers are cutting out of their line-ups, it's not going to have meaningful Western developer support. Mobile will continue to eat at the children's and casual markets.

In Japan though, barring absolute catastrophe, it will have the market position the PS4 does as far as dedicated devices go. As long as the handheld device satisfies as many Japanese developer wants and needs as possible, I doubt they'll need a strategy change in the region.

As such, I don't think the reveal time is meaningful. They'll get whatever indie developer support they were going to get regardless. Western publisher support might as well have been set in stone two years ago. I doubt there's much they can do to combat market conditions beyond simply offering something as attractive as possible for the people who would still actually consider buying their hardware and hope that some of them sell their friends. I see this as an exercise in managing what's left of an audience instead of trying to completely reboot a business.

 

[Eolz]

Releasing the NX for fall 2016 is certainly not something premature, be it in Japan or WW.
edit: whoops, was before Nirolak posted.
To clarify further: I'm pretty sure Nintendo knows that they need a successful launch, both 1st and 3rd party wise (as much as they can on this side at least).

 

[Napalm_Frank]

Define "reveal".

NX was "revealed" earlier this year.

If you want to see the console itself, I think you are going to have to wait until E3.

I definately think Ninty wants to have it's own event before E3 to have no competition for media space. Considering how easily they seem to namedrop it I wouldn't be surprised at Q1 reveal.

 

[Mory Dunz]

there is absolutely no point in rushing or releasing the nx prematurely, the ds and wii u is both in their own world at this point in terms of competition as one has been DOA and the other is going through the natural stage of end-life, releasing them early won't affect the ps4/xb1 as the success of it relies on it's own strength and offerings, rather than strategic timing against other platforms

a successful launch is top priority, look at 3ds and wii u which both suffered severely due to premature or inadequate launches, if nx flops out of the gate then it's gonna be another generation of nintendo consoles being ignored again by third parties on a WW basis

i have always been for a launch asap but not if it compromises a successful launch and with the nx's concept of "shared games" it'd be a bone-headed move not take advantage of that by bolstering the launch period library of games to its full potential

with the delay of miimoto, i assume their overall plans have been delayed slightly to q4 2015 release, when it was likely going to be a bit earlier before

the fact that nintendo managed to get dq11 as a nx title shows that they are focusing on a solid library in its early life and as it should, like i said, a successful launch is top priority, theres nothing worse than droughts for a console that relies so much on first party support only, nintendo simply can't play it like sony and ms does, they have to be much more proactive than that

dq11, pokemon z, yokai watch, monster hunter stories, zelda are all easily early nx titles if nintendo wants it to happen and i dont see why they wouldn't when 3ds is no longer a priority


looks like X will open up bigger than 4G but legs won't be as great as capcom expects 2.5m by Q1 2016, which is a bit less than the expectactions for 4G, but it's also possible capcom lowballed X after overestimating 4G sales expectations based on better than expected sales from MH4

yea, getting it out in 2016 will be meaningless if the console is garbage. And doesn't have a killer lineup.


Pokemon usually doesn't jump the next handheld immediately though right? I expect the next one to be on the 3DS still.

 

[BishopLamont]

yea, getting it out in 2016 will be meaningless if the console is garbage. And doesn't have a killer lineup.


Pokemon usually doesn't jump the next handheld immediately though right? I expect the next one to be on the 3DS still.

u mean pokemon is usually the last of their main IPs to have a mainline release on their new consoles? if so yes, but theres nothing stopping them from changing that

the fact that the console/handheld can share games means they can push up their mainline releases as they basically only have to develop one title for each series

third parties might not be as keen on releasing big mainline games early as the fanbase isn't there but nintendo can afford to do that if they choose to do so

the fact that nintendo released a side-title for a mainline game like AC shows they're willing to change their schedule and type of releases for their big titles, i hope this means that we will be getting the big games sooner than we think

 

[Sammy Samusu]

I definately think Ninty wants to have it's own event before E3 to have no competition for media space. Considering how easily they seem to namedrop it I wouldn't be surprised at Q1 reveal.

E3 draws a lot more attention. Only gamers would watch some random Nintendo event.

I do think they should host some sort of presentation in Q1, to reveal some small details and tease some stuff, build the hype. But they should save the NX showcase, pricing and release date for E3.

 

[Exterminieren]

I expect us to know what the NX is, and the shape of Nintendo's future business, by March- they'll be including profit projections for the NX in their FY2016 forecasts, and they'll disclose the specific format of the console(s) and the effect that they expect it to have on their overall business in order to better advise investors.

Pokémon Z will assuredly not be on the NX (I expect it in March or April time, judging by the promotion it's currently going through), but I would be flat astonished if there were any 3DS mainline titles after that. Game Freak stuck with the DS for Gen V as a result of the stunning hardware sales across the world, and Gen IV's better-than-expected software sales- say what you want about the 3DS, but it's pretty clear that's not a factor this time out. I'd expect Gen VII to hit NX Autumn 2017.

 

[BishopLamont]

e3 will be the big unveiling, theres no point in announcing it earlier as that will just affect wii u/ds sales for wat little hype they might gain, when the success of the console's launch will based on the offerings and games it has

a well-received reveal of the console will generate the same amount of hype regardless of whether it was revealed 3 or 6 months prior, the world we currently live in doesn't need much to spread around the good news as it did in the previous eras, it's a double-edged sword, just make sure the unveiling is on point,

 

[horuhe]

Splatoon seems pretty high.


Hard to judge Zelda legs from that....

Well, some retailers expect good sales at the end of the year. So, having legs could not be that weird, though.

 

[Napalm_Frank]

E3 draws a lot more attention. Only gamers would watch some random Nintendo event.

I do think they should host some sort of presentation in Q1, to reveal some small details and tease some stuff, build the hype. But they should save the NX showcase, pricing and release date for E3.

I disagree. If Nintendo does an event buildup in the vein of PS4 reveal at a quiet news period it will draw eyes. And I'd imagine gamers are the ones who they want to capture, it's not like non-gamers watch E3 press conferences.

If they go for full E3 blowout they better have a damn good showing to overshadow Sony+MS shows and lineups unless they try to go for another Wii situation with totally different audience or heavy handheld focus.

 

[BishopLamont]

I expect us to know what the NX is, and the shape of Nintendo's future business, by March- they'll be including profit projections for the NX in their FY2016 forecasts, and they'll disclose the specific format of the console(s) and the effect that they expect it to have on their overall business in order to better advise investors.

Pokémon Z will assuredly not be on the NX (I expect it in March or April time, judging by the promotion it's currently going through), but I would be flat astonished if there were any 3DS mainline titles after that. Game Freak stuck with the DS for Gen V as a result of the stunning hardware sales across the world, and Gen IV's better-than-expected software sales- say what you want about the 3DS, but it's pretty clear that's not a factor this time out. I'd expect Gen VII to hit NX Autumn 2017.

if Z was 3DS bound then it should be out right around now or at the latest this holiday, nintendo did say that theres still unannounced games that will be releasing this q4 but i doubt it'll be pokemon

if it isn't out yet by the end of the year then it's likely for nx instead

I disagree. If Nintendo does an event buildup in the vein of PS4 reveal at a quiet news period it will draw eyes. And I'd imagine gamers are the ones who they want to capture, it's not like non-gamers watch E3 press conferences.

If they go for full E3 blowout they better have a damn good showing to overshadow Sony+MS shows and lineups unless they try to go for another Wii situation with totally different audience or heavy handheld focus.

hardware reveals at e3 will always have the mindshare over just software reveals and if it's a good unveiling it'll overshadow sony/ms instead, e3 is best time to reveal it as u have the attention of the gamers that are likely early adopters, the ones u want on ur side

they're entering the mobile market now so i doubt nintendo will box themselves into any type of audience, they'll be offering something for everyone because that is wat they do best

same thing with "heavy handheld focus" they want to succeed on a global scale, it'll be the home console that will be the focus, regardless of whether the handheld part is the same thing or not, as the western market doesn't care about handhelds like they do home consoles

 

[AniHawk]

I disagree. If Nintendo does an event buildup in the vein of PS4 reveal at a quiet news period it will draw eyes. And I'd imagine gamers are the ones who they want to capture, it's not like non-gamers watch E3 press conferences.

If they go for full E3 blowout they better have a damn good showing to overshadow Sony+MS shows and lineups unless they try to go for another Wii situation with totally different audience or heavy handheld focus.

i really think they'll use nwc as an opportunity to showcase the new 3d mario game, which may be super mario galaxy 3, and that way they have their screaming fans segment. the digital even the next day should focus on things like release date and the lineup. any system features can be demonstrated with little fear of technical difficulties or other flubs that are possible in a live conference. i expect the attitude to be more like when the gamecube was first shown off versus when the wii u was first shown off, with known franchises and lots of them to get the right people excited, and vague release dates accompanying them. one of the biggest issues with nintendo's 2012 e3 is that they weren't showing off 2014, 2015, or 2016 titles like microsoft and sony were, and instead saved that information for a nintendo direct in january when the wii u was already dead.

oh and no one will like the names and want them to go back to 'nx' because it was cool.

 

[Exterminieren]

if Z was 3DS bound then it should be out right around now or at the latest this holiday, nintendo did say that theres still unannounced games that will be releasing this q4 but i doubt it'll be pokemon

if it isn't out yet by the end of the year then it's likely for nx instead

No, I don't agree, I'm afraid. Pokémon's twentieth anniversary comes around in February, and I would be far from surprised if there was a game in quick succession of that date- it's probably too late to get a game ready for that date now, but there's plenty of time between that point and the NX's launch to get a game out. Game Freak has never been quick to the platform transition- even setting aside the DS-3DS transition, it took two years to get the first DS RPG out the door, and it was well over a year before Ruby and Sapphire came to the GBA. I also don't see any reason why they'd give up the easy money of a third version or a sequel to squeeze as much as possible out of that shitty 3DS engine as possible before they move on.

 

[Arzehn]

[PSV] God Eater: Resurrection - 383pts

GERB2 had 666pt sales on Vita iirc. Puts GER at around 135k not counting cross-play pack.

 

[Moor-Angol]

GERB2 had 666pt sales on Vita iirc. Puts GER at around 135k not counting cross-play pack.

bomba confirmed


about NX, anyone knows about it here in japan, and probably anyone must not know anything until winter holiday ends

even if a January announcement would make angry all the people who just bought a Nintendo console a couple of weeks before
but that worked with DSLite so it might work again

 

[BishopLamont]

No, I don't agree, I'm afraid. Pokémon's twentieth anniversary comes around in February, and I would be far from surprised if there was a game in quick succession of that date- it's probably too late to get a game ready for that date now, but there's plenty of time between that point and the NX's launch to get a game out. Game Freak has never been quick to the platform transition- even setting aside the DS-3DS transition, it took two years to get the first DS RPG out the door, and it was well over a year before Ruby and Sapphire came to the GBA. I also don't see any reason why they'd give up the easy money of a third version or a sequel to squeeze as much as possible out of that shitty 3DS engine as possible before they move on.

if their aim is to maximize profits then it should be out by now, as every other third entry has released after 2 years, by delaying it til next year they'll just have less time to sell the game before nx comes along, all for the sake of what? 10th year anniversary?

bomba confirmed


about NX, anyone knows about it here in japan, and probably anyone must not know anything until winter holiday ends

even if a January announcement would make angry all the people who just bought a Nintendo console a couple of weeks before
but that worked with DSLite so it might work again

ds was a beast and when dslite came around it was still in shortage, people were glad to even buy one, 3ds isn't in the same situation

dslite was like the second coming of jesus whereas 3ds is the crucifixion