Support NeoGAF

[N.Domixis]

In the late 80s people said the very same about Nintendo.

Nintendo probably would have continued to be top, but then play station happened. Which is what I was saying.
A brand will continue to be on top unless something new disrupts the market or the top brand shoots itself in the foot.

 

[AniHawk]

You have this oriented in a parabola shape, but I think it's more linear. The story of the Xbox brand since 2005 has been one of profitability. I really think we ascribe too much "personality" to the hardware manufacturers, talking about the "Phil Spencer Effect" or Shu tweets. I think the shift to "console for everyone" was more about reducing the absolutely aggressive pace at which they secured exclusives, developed partnerships, featured titles, and things like that. In other words, they had to find a way reduce their customer acquisition costs, which were very high (especially because they were forced to rip customers away from Sony, the leader last gen). Kinect is logically, to me, part of that (part of the ERA OF BIG SPENDING, which is why they were so happy to just write it off now). That's not to say that Sony hasn't done the same thing, though obviously they have to do that for different reasons.

Take your point about Rare and acknowledging the rich legacy of the some of the developers within the company. They get to put out Rare replay and it's a celebration of Rare's history, but last generation they got to work on a brand new AAA entry in one of their biggest franchises that was completely and totally separate from the games that came before it (illustrating that they had complete creative freedom). They also got to develop an entirely brand new transmedia IP in Viva Pinata. I don't know much about Sea of Thieves, so I'm not going to talk about it because ultimately we don't know what it will be like, but the story of Rare is clearly "doing more with way, way less" so far.

I think both manufacturers were looking at this generation as a chance to lick some wounds, a logical and necessary conclusion to what happened last generation and the generation before that.

Errrrybody just getting cheap. That cheapness just has a public face now and the face is so friendly. But everyone is far more conservative, far more focused around increasing their ARPU, etc. Shu has basically admitted WWS is making big budget AAA games or they're not making anything. There are some token efforts around the edges...like unlocking XBL non-gameplay features from XBL or getting rid of Online Passes at Sony-- but they basically had to do these things because they were key advantages of competitors and there was no more effective way to reduce acquisition costs.

edit: This also describes Nintendo, I think. They were certainly surprised by the costs of HD development and basically all of their profitability improvement in the last 2-3 years has come from dramatically slashing costs at the operating level. It's not a topline growth story anymore for any of these guys (well, maybe Sony).

i didn't mean to make it sound like microsoft had turned a corner and had gone back to their roots from 2005. the audience they're chasing now is a little different from the one they were after in 2005. stuff like recore and quantum break seem to me to be more like games you would find on a sony platform since 2006 or so, where cinematics and making games seem like art are more appreciated. we might find out more about the behind the scenes for rare this gen and how they were forced to make an online game against their will, but we're currently aware of what was shot down during the 360 era, how sequels to properties were shot down and how veterans were told to go back to the drawing board. the difference here seems to me like they're not being used as a tool to compete with nintendo (avatars, first-party kinect games). i admit i am not too up on my history with viva piñata to know whether that was inspiration from within rare or if microsoft wanted their cartoon game for kids and had rare knock one out for them.

i just wanted to point out that the xbox of today isn't necessarily the xbox of may 2013, and that you can see that direction has changed in the past. it doesn't mean that they're still set on a trajectory put in place by don mattrick four years ago.

in addition to that, the biggest threat xbox faces appears internal. this is where the xbox one fell flat on its face. the idea of an always-online console might have made sense if there was no way to play physical games. it was a compromise between wanting a presence at retail and having complete control over the library, and maximizing profits through their game sales and subscription fees. the issue for next gen probably isn't too much external forces, such as people not caring about the brand or the games (i think 60 million sold is a pretty significant number, even if it is down 25-28 million from its predecessor). the issue is more where microsoft will want the brand to go. this is where 60 million units sold, and having ultimately failed to capture the living room (which was the goal of project midway) might lead to another change in direction for the brand. it could be a different compromise, like xbox turning into a steam-like service that can be played on pc and also a microsoft-made retail device. it could also be a more hardline move away from the living room and just turning xbox into a brand that means 'microsoft games' across mobile and pc.

the 9th generation is definitely the era of last chances though. it's probably going to be the culmination of spencer's efforts in the marketplace. if that fails (losing subscriptions, dropping another 20m in hardware sales, etc), then xbox would probably be done for, at least where microsoft is concerned.

 

[Fredrik]

Very unlikely.

I'm sure the usual MS/Sony supporters will sit at the front row cheering but will the rest keep doing that over sub 30fps downports if/when PC popularity increases?
Like I said, I'm playing Witcher 3 right now on Ultra at 60fps with a wireless controller in the living room through a dead silent box. I definitely think something needs to be done to counter this.

 

[Collateral22]

I'm sure the usual MS/Sony supporters will sit at the front row cheering but will the rest keep doing that over sub 30fps downports if/when PC popularity increases?
Like I said, I'm playing Witcher 3 right now on Ultra at 60fps with a wireless controller in the living room through a dead silent box. I definitely think something needs to be done to counter this.

Majority of console market isn't going to fork out nearly a grand to do that though.

 

[ethomaz]

Okay. Did it outsell Knack?

Neither Mario could

Spoiler

in UK.

 

[Fredrik]

At the same time, I have a really hard time seeing Nintendo splurge on the amount of cash needed to compete with Sony and Microsoft by releasing a console with similar specs. They've been immensely tight-fisted with their money since the Gamecube generation ended, and I just don't see that changing anytime soon.

If money is the issue then why end the generation early? It will cost them much more to launch another console than simply sit out this gen and keep releasing first party games for the current WiiU fan base. They're obviously sitting on something good, otherwise they would never bother launching the console early.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

I see this as a possibility, but the problem is they are competing against against free games on mobiles and tablets.

Maybe to a certain extent, but I'm not sure how much this is actually the case. There's a very real difference in use case between playing a game on a console and playing a game on a phone or a tablet that tends to get elided. For certain consumers, and in certain situations, the two use cases may very well be in direct competition. But I get the feeling that most people currently in the home console market (post-Wii collapse), or most potential purchasers of home consoles, are not going to view playing a game on a tablet as being a sufficient substitute for playing a game on a console.

Now, clearly we saw that in Japan people were more than willing to view playing a game on a mobile device (including a handheld console) as a substitute for playing a game on a home console. But that phenomenon doesn't appear to have happened in the West, and so I think it's safe to attribute it to particularly Japanese realities - cramped apartments, prevalence of public transit, games are for kids, etc.

 

[Boombloxer]

I'm sure the usual MS/Sony supporters will sit at the front row cheering but will the rest keep doing that over sub 30fps downports if/when PC popularity increases?
Like I said, I'm playing Witcher 3 right now on Ultra at 60fps with a wireless controller in the living room through a dead silent box. I definitely think something needs to be done to counter this.

Your anecdote does not trump the general market perception.

Price, ease, form factor, unified login, all games.
Until they can all be addressed, nothing is changing.

If money is the issue then why end the generation early? It will cost them much more to launch another console than simply sit out this gen and keep releasing first party games for the current WiiU fan base. They're obviously sitting on something good, otherwise they would never bother launching the console early.

The WiiU is a failed product. It's been that way for a while now.
Putting resources into anything except the WiiU is actually a better bet.

 

[Fredrik]

Majority of console market isn't going to fork out nearly a grand to do that though.

True, but PC tech evolves quickly and the price difference goes down as fast as the performance difference goes up, the console makers can't keep looking the other way much longer, you already see lots of people choosing PCs for multiplats even though the prices are still higher, in a year it'll be even worse.

 

[Melchiah]

If money is the issue then why end the generation early? It will cost them much more to launch another console than simply sit out this gen and keep releasing first party games for the current WiiU fan base. They're obviously sitting on something good, otherwise they would never bother launching the console early.

Well, they did pretty much the same with Wii U, and they weren't sitting on something special back then, eventhough some might have thought so prior to its reveal.

 

[ethomaz]

As a brazilian this is (anedoctally) true. Playstation just has way more mindshare and recognition here, mostly because of the PS2.

I can confirm that anedoctally.

Most of my friends that had a 360 are buying PS4 in the Gray Market.

My PS4 is a launch console bought at Santa Efigenia priced R$2700 (Brasilian model box and manual in PT BR).

 

[Banjo-Kazooie]

Bad month for Microsoft. Sony selling more consoles, Halo 5 not even in the top 5 and Tomb Raider not charting

I love how selling almost 1.3mil consoles is considered a "bad month".

My god lmao

 

[ethomaz]

Nah. With the more powerful console, a concept that is not fucking consumers, a focus on games and some well-chosen exclusives and marketing partnerships it could have played out differently.
I just don't like this thought that the outcome has been totally clear to everyone except me from the start (before the first presentations).

They did that with 360 and PS3 ended catching it... max they could do is sell the same with 1 year more in the market... PS3 hold strong in terms of sales with all the issues.

PS4 could have crushed 360 because it didn't have all PS3 faults.

Brand power is strong with PlayStation.

 

[A Human Becoming]

It's been a couple days. Please fill me in with a 3DS number cream. <3

 

[system11]

The number of people who told me Star Wars would outsell Call Of Duty..... Nice to see it doing well, it deserves to. Came out of the gate with a good amount of content, and it's not horribly broken which these days seems to be unusual. It's almost like they tested it!

 

[John Harker]

Mr. Harker, now that you're here I have the same question as every month:

How is the Wii U SW going? I'm interested in evergreen Nintendo titles (such as Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze and Mario 3D World) and others like Bayonetta 2 and Wonderful 101. Did they have a jump or are selling mostly the same as other months? (No need for hard numbers, only if they're selling better, the same or worse)

Thanks in advance!

No extraordinary curve if that's what you're asking.
No game you listed above was in the top 10 wii u this month, so all were below 34k

Smash and Kart are still in the top 10 though, around 45 and 35 respectively.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Sony by default should always win WW. Unless something like wii happens again or they fail at launching the system like ps3.

"Should" isn't the correct operative word. Makes it sound like they're entitled to it. NONE of these guys are entitled to success; they have to work for it each and every single time.

 

[Mpl90]

No extraordinary curve if that's what you're asking.
No game you listed above was in the top 10 wii u this month, so all were below 34k

Smash and Kart are still in the top 10 though, around 45 and 35 respectively.

Since Orgen asked about them as well, can we get an update about LTDs for both Bayonetta 2 and The Wonderful 101?

 

[StrongBlackVine]

No exclusives of any real note and ps4 won.

Damn, there's literally nothing that MS can do to stop sony. Halo, ROTR (the bigger crying shame here) and still its not enough. This could be a watershed moment in the generation.

People wanted ROTR, but not badly enough to buy a Xbox One.

 

[Boombloxer]

True, but PC tech evolves quickly and the price difference goes down as fast as the performance difference goes up, the console makers can't keep looking the other way much longer, you already see lots of people choosing PCs for multiplats even though the prices are still higher, in a year it'll be even worse.

No, we actually don't see this in the greater market.
COD/FIFA/BF/Madden/etc do not sell more on PC.

For multiplats, the consoles beat PCs pretty handily most of the time.

I love how selling almost 1.3mil consoles is considered a "bad month".
My god lmao

Context. It's a great month, just not as high as the market leader.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

I love how selling almost 1.3mil consoles is considered a "bad month".

My god lmao

The same way Halo 5 selling 1.3 million is seen as a disappointment: they're good numbers, but they're not Halo good.

 

[Bastables]

I love how selling almost 1.3mil consoles is considered a "bad month".

My god lmao

I love how they things are going so well that MS is unwilling to report 1.3 million sales and instead go half arse MAU.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

The same way Halo 5 selling 1.3 million is seen as a disappointment: they're good numbers, but they're not Halo good.

1.3 million is damn good number. I think the issue is losing to PS4 with their decisive advantage in holiday exclusives is a clear signal that Xbox lost the U.S. for good this generation. Winning the in U.S. would at least give them something to be boast and be proud about. Now they have nothing.

 

[Fredrik]

Price, ease, form factor, unified login, all games.
Until they can all be addressed, nothing is changing.

Steam adresses most of those points already and more with a unified login, free online, big picture mode, big harddrives, Steam Box/Link, cheap prices, fast installs, fast load times, mods, etc. And pretty much all games that plays better with a controller have the same controls on PC now, give it a year and it'll be even better. Consoles and PCs are closer now than ever before.

 

[Boombloxer]

Steam adresses most of those points already and more with a unified login, free online, big picture mode, big harddrives, Steam Box/Link, cheap prices, fast installs, fast load times, mods, etc. And pretty much all games that plays better with a controller have the same controls on PC now, give it a year and it'll be even better. Consoles and PCs are closer now than ever before.

Can I login to Steam and play Diablo?
Wow?
LoL?
Titanfall?
Mass Effect?
FIFA?

Can I login to Battle.net and play Dota 2?
Madden?
COD?

No, and yet I can do that on either console for the games available. That's a unified login and platform. PC doesn't actually have that. Nor does it have all of those games and their sequels for the next 5 years available at a 299 price point.

Literally everything else you named has no basis in sales reality that matters to the greater market.

And that's fine, PC and console get along fine. The idea that one will kill the other is simply outdated.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

XB1 may have sold 1.3m but they have big problems coming up.

They still couldn't beat the PS4 even with their biggest franchise and there is no way they can match the PS4 line-up next year with Uncharted 4 and SF5 spearheading Sony's releases.

At this point we need to start looking at other reasons why the US market prefers the PS4 and why the rest of the world isn't interested in the Xbox.

Aside from a smaller game library (the disparity between the two is set to widen looking at the stacks of Japanese games alone coming up for the PS4), the weaker processing power and butt-ugly aesthetics of the XB1 console unit itself are not insignificant factors. I mean I really think in the pantheon of ugly consoles, the XB1 has to be right up there. It's design is terrible compared to the PS4.

Aesthetics of the controllers are debated a lot as being a factor but the console unit itself is not something that buyers will overlook when both cost the same.

 

[heidern]

But I get the feeling that most people currently in the home console market (post-Wii collapse), or most potential purchasers of home consoles, are not going to view playing a game on a tablet as being a sufficient substitute for playing a game on a console.

Now, clearly we saw that in Japan people were more than willing to view playing a game on a mobile device (including a handheld console) as a substitute for playing a game on a home console. But that phenomenon doesn't appear to have happened in the West, and so I think it's safe to attribute it to particularly Japanese realities - cramped apartments, prevalence of public transit, games are for kids, etc.

The thing with Japan was that the Japanese third parties didn't keep up with the tech curve and mostly stopped making AAA games. Unspectacular graphics means a big screen and expensive console is less of a draw while the extra convenience and lower price of handhelds aids in the shift.

I agree the current dedicated niche(Post Wii but also I would say post Kinect/PSP/Touch Generations) has limited exposure from the smart device market, the issue with Nintendo is they want to expand their market. Free games may stop any attempt to target casuals with $20-$60 games making a significant impact. If they can't expand the market the only option for Nintendo would be to compete better within the existing market. Mostly that's taking Sony and MS head on.

 

[shandy706]

XB1 may have sold 1.3m but they have big problems coming up.

They still couldn't beat the PS4 even with their biggest franchise and there is no way they can match the PS4 line-up next year with Uncharted 4 and SF5 spearheading Sony's releases.

At this point we need to start looking at other reasons why the US market prefers the PS4 and why the rest of the world isn't interested in the Xbox.

Aside from a smaller game library (the disparity between the two is set to widen looking at the stacks of Japanese games alone coming up for the PS4), the weaker processing power and butt-ugly aesthetics of the XB1 console unit itself are not insignificant factors. I mean I really think in the pantheon of ugly consoles, the XB1 has to be right up there. It's design is terrible compared to the PS4.

Aesthetics of the controllers are debated a lot as being a factor but the console unit itself is not something that buyers will overlook when both cost the same.

LOL

I love these joke posts.

Well done 10/10!

 

[StrongBlackVine]

LOL

I love these joke posts.

Well done 10/10!

Everything but the part about how the console looks seem grounded/realistic to me.

 

[shandy706]

Everything but the part about how the console looks seem grounded/realistic to me.

I thought he was just setting up the funny "looks" part.

Was serious?

 

[Kyoufu]

LOL

I love these joke posts.

Well done 10/10!

I'm not seeing any jokes.

 

[De_Legend]

LOL

I love these joke posts.

Well done 10/10!

He's not wrong though?

 

[cartographer]

Can I login to Battle.net and play Dota 2?
Madden?
COD?

Can't even log-in to Origin and play Madden

Spoiler

I don't even like the NFL but I probably would buy a Madden game on PC.

 

[Kyougar]

Can I login to Steam and play Diablo?
Wow?
LoL?
Titanfall?
Mass Effect?
FIFA?

Can I login to Battle.net and play Dota 2?
Madden?
COD?

No, and yet I can do that on either console for the games available. That's a unified login and platform. PC doesn't actually have that. Nor does it have all of those games and their sequels for the next 5 years available at a 299 price point.

Literally everything else you named has no basis in sales reality that matters to the greater market.

And that's fine, PC and console get along fine. The idea that one will kill the other is simply outdated.

What is the point of this?

Can you play Halo 5 with EA Access? Witcher? Elder scrolls online?


The PC is the free access point to all the games you listed (minus madden, thats a Console game)
Your Argument has no pillar to stand on because the Login isnt requiered for most of the Console Games, be it Xbox Live or PSN.
After THAT you have different Login's and pockets of game Companies that have their own service.
EA Access is one of them. I dont know how most of the MMO's handle their Business but I'm pretty sure that each has their own service where you have to log in to play the game. But I can be wrong.

 

[shandy706]

I'm not seeing any jokes.

He's not wrong though?

Ah, guess I didn't realize people buy consoles based on aesthetics.

I probably would skip out on the 360, PS3, DS, and PS4 in that case.

The Vita looks good though. That's why it's selling millions. Heck I bought one.

 

[Xenus]

He's not wrong though?

His reasoning is flawed but the end conclusion that the numbers mean Microsoft has issues in the future and is due some self reflection is correct. If Microsoft still considers the console market worthwhile they have to work on where things went wrong.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Don't think console aesthetics mean that much but every thing else seem right .

 

[Intrigue]

LOL

I love these joke posts.

Well done 10/10!

I love these damage control posts, belittling others.

Spoiler

See what I did?

On a serious note, Oct-Dec is the only months MSFT have a chance to catch up in the US, based upon history, however this year they keep slipping behind during same period, that is not good for them.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Ah, guess I didn't realize people buy consoles based on aesthetics.

I probably would skip out on the 360, PS3, DS, and PS4 in that case.

The Vita looks good though. That's why it's selling millions. Heck I bought one.

Vita is so good looking. I've always wished I had an excuse to buy one.

 

[QaaQer]

Steam adresses most of those points already and more with a unified login, free online, big picture mode, big harddrives, Steam Box/Link, cheap prices, fast installs, fast load times, mods, etc. And pretty much all games that plays better with a controller have the same controls on PC now, give it a year and it'll be even better. Consoles and PCs are closer now than ever before.

Can I get a pc + controller + $60 game + $50 gift card for $299? That is hard to beat, and next year it will be even lower.

 

[Crimson_Gold]

Can I get a pc + controller + $60 game + $50 gift card for $299? That is hard to beat, and next year it will be even lower.

You can get a yoga and a Xbox One from best buy for like $599.99 I think. No gift card though

 

[Deputy Moonman]

Hos reasoning is flawed but the end conclusion that the numbers mean Microsoft has issues in the future and is due some self reflection is correct. If Microsoft still considers the console market worthwhile they have to work on where things went wrong.

That's not exactly hard to do though. Everyone here seems to think it's not correctable - that MS is just doomed in the console market and has no chance of competing in the future - but clearly it can. It's easy to see where MS went wrong. The architecture/specs of the X1 put it at a real disadvantage from the starting gates even without the E3 debacle. All MS needs is another 360 that has simple architecture for devs, yet is sufficiently powerful enough to compete in the multi-platform market and voila.

 

[Bananajama]

Speaking as an inherently 'lazy' gamer.

If its not on Steam. I generally don't bother with the game.

I don't want multiple launch platforms. So I'll either let the game pass me by or pick up on the console

 

[StrongBlackVine]

That's not exactly hard to do though. Everyone here seems to think it's not correctable - that MS is just doomed in the console market and has no chance of competing in the future - but clearly it can. It's easy to see where MS went wrong. The architecture/specs of the X1 put it at a real disadvantage from the starting gates even without the E3 debacle. All MS needs is another 360 that has simple architecture for devs, yet is sufficiently powerful enough to compete in the multi-platform market and voila.

It can clearly compete(in the U.S and UK), but it can't win unless Sony screws up. All things being equal PlayStation wins.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

It can clearly compete(in the U.S and UK), but it can't win unless Sony screws up. All things being equal PlayStation wins.

I wouldn't quite say that. It's dangerous to say one brand is stronger than the other just because reasons. There are factors tying to products under that brand umbrella that incidentally increase the power of the brand, but the brand itself has no power.

I mean, people used to say this same thing about Nintendo. Then Sega came and wrecked things up in U.S and Europe (and Brazil). Then Sony came and did that globally, and also knocked Sega out of the race in due time. The PlayStation has already proven it's not infallible, even when everything's on a fair playing field, otherwise the XBO would not even be an afterthought in the US and UK at this point of the race. I mean, Sony probably thought the same thing: PlayStation was infallible. That's how the 360 got to eat so much mindshare and marketshare in the West, b/c that thinking made them rest on their laurels. I'd rather Sony not do that again, because we're seeing Microsoft pay the price in thinking that about the Xbox brand in the West.

When you strip away everything aggregated to PlayStation and Xbox, they are worth exactly the same: worthless. These companies have to work to get the sales, and Sony has simply been putting in more work. Twice as much in fact, that's why they're 2:1 (if not 2.5:1 by this point) in sales WW. And it looks like they and their partners will continue doing so, increasing the workload even.

Point being, PlayStation doesn't sell consoles the way it does simply for being PlayStation; they put in the work to justify their existence worthy of those sales.

 

[spatenfloot]

I love how selling almost 1.3mil consoles is considered a "bad month".

My god lmao

No, the issue is that in their best possible month, they are still falling further behind in their strongest territory. If they can't catch up now, when will they be able to? Sony has even stronger releases in 2016 to improve their lead. Once a console is perceived as "the loser" by the market, it will be harder than ever to convince people to buy it.

 

[viHuGi]

No, the issue is that in their best possible month, they are still falling further behind in their strongest territory. If they can't catch up now, when will they be able to? Sony has even stronger releases in 2016 to improve their lead. Once a console is perceived as "the loser" by the market, it will be harder than ever to convince people to buy it.

You dont need to win to be sucesseful.

 

[spatenfloot]

You dont need to win to be sucesseful.

I am quite certain that Microsoft doesn't consider the current state of affairs a success.
They will try to put a good face on things, but this not at all what they wanted.

 

[etta]

I am quite certain that Microsoft doesn't consider the current state of affairs a success.
They will try to put a good face on things, but this not at all what they wanted.

They also know that not much can be done aside from slashing prices and taking the loss.
They know that there are market forces due to perception, strength of PS4, hardware differences and how developers work with that, marketing deals...etc that cannot be changed this generation. The best they can do is readjust their goals, keep bringing good exclusives and soldier on. I'm sure they got the cash to do that. Next generation Xbox will have a different focus, so it won't be exactly Xbox One Part 2. Nadella I am sure will want it to be designed to fit the new strategy and to work even better with Windows 10 and the rest of the Microsoft devices.

 

[creamsugar]

Anything you didn't know yet?