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[Mikey Jr.]

Dunno, I don't have high hopes for Tomb Raider.

I guess a year later will feel fresh to PS4 fans? If they do another marketing push.

I'll consider it, but they sure as shit better not sell me a year old game for $60. I supported Crystal and Square. I bought TR brand new on PS3 and brand new on PS4. Loved what they were doing with the franchise and wanted to support them. Shit, I would absolutely bought it this year instead of Fallout 4.

 

[Trojan]

There has to be some type of wording in the deal that sales numbers determine how much they pay for it being exclusive. SE would have to protect itself against the possibility of such a sales failure that just happened.

You are assuming that SQE took logical countermeasures for illogical deals

The same applies true for MS as well though.

I can't imagine that they'll sign a deal that will significantly increase/affect their payout to Square depending on the sales.

I would hope that someone in accounting would bring this up.

I've had some exposure to deals like this in my past job. I'M ONLY SPECULATING BELOW, but here's how I would think the deal is structured based on my experience:

• Guessing that MS paid somewhere in the range of $25M - $50M for deal. I think that it would make the most sense if MS agreed to pay a guaranteed lump sum regardless of sales, but then have tiered sales thresholds that split out payment between MS and SE (e.g sales <1M split 45/55, sales from 1M - 2M split 40/60, etc). The deal could also have some bonuses tucked in to further incentivize SE...maybe metacritic scores or GOTY accolades, etc
• I'm saying this cost based on the fact that they could split dev costs somewhat-equal across both MS and SE, but with SE taking a slight majority of the burden since they're developing the game and have control over that.
• Speculating that MS signed this deal knowing they would probably lose some money in the short term (TR sales), but thought it was worth it to drive X1 sales with its exclusivity. Pretty common for large corps with shit tons of cash to sign a deal that has a much longer payoff than the deal's terms.
• Square Enix wants this deal because it allows them to leverage MS for a big marketing push and also so they can mitigate cost risk for their developer. They basically are getting a security blanket with MS if things go south because MS will help eat the sales deficits, but they relinquish some up-side for profitability in the long run. They specifically lose up-side because there is significant lost sales momentum when the game releases on PC and PS4 well after the X1 release.
• MS is a joint publisher with SE, but MS structures deal so they are less liable for a sales deficit. This is because SE is developer and has more control in the game's success.
• MS fronts and executes the majority of marketing (for X1 release only) in return for exclusivity. MS has a huge marketing arm already, so they can use economies of scale to get marketing for cheaper than SE can on their own.

I really would love to see a leaked copy of this contract!

EDIT: added clarification for fixed vs variable payment

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Ah, so 400-500K is what's expected for a launch title, ROTR is 1/2 of that two years later. So then a good expected number for ROTR would have been like 800K-1M?

A okay number for TR would have been to match the first one sales on MS platforms .
A good number would have been to show some growth from the first one since it exclusive .

Dunno, I don't have high hopes for Tomb Raider.

I guess a year later will feel fresh to PS4 fans? If they do another marketing push.

I'll consider it, but they sure as shit better not sell me a year old game for $60. I supported Crystal and Square. I bought TR brand new on PS3 and brand new on PS4. Loved what they were doing with the franchise and wanted to support them. Shit, I would absolutely bought it this year instead of Fallout 4.

If FFXV comes out late next year SE not going to spend a cent on TR .
This deal really hurt the IP.

 

[oSoLucky]

What perception? Going by the factual numbers, PC is the largest market by many miles.

And what do you mean by nothing is changing? PC has been growing year after year.

The point though is whether there is any evidence that PC's growth is coming at the detriment of consoles. It doesn't seem to be so far. I'd guess that percentage of multiplats sold versus consoles over time could be an indicator. It seems like they can happily coexist, as most of PC's biggest games are ones that you can't get on console.

 

[Nightengale]

Ah, so 400-500K is what's expected for a launch title, ROTR is 1/2 of that two years later. So then a good expected number for ROTR would have been like 800K-1M?

Not really. But 2 years later is long enough that the install base argument is not strong anymore. The fact that publishers are releasing current gen only games even though dev cost is not cheaper means they believe the current gen install base, while smaller, are strong enough to make up for last gen volume.

Personally the minimum measure of success for ROTR IMO is no more than a 30-35% decline from the combined PS3/360 sales of TR2013.

 

[Primethius]

Ah, so 400-500K is what's expected for a launch title, ROTR is 1/2 of that two years later. So then a good expected number for ROTR would have been like 800K-1M?

Well, to start off with, at least matching the number that TR 2013 did on 360 back when it launched would be a good start (348k).

 

[Bastables]

Ah, so 400-500K is what's expected for a launch title, ROTR is 1/2 of that two years later. So then a good expected number for ROTR would have been like 800K-1M?

Bloodborne did 1 million in it's first couple of weeks (digital and blu Ray) world wide on a single format.
http://gematsu.com/2015/04/bloodborne-sales-top-one-million-worldwide

 

[Saucycarpdog]

PC is the largest market depending on the game type .
The same can be said for mobile and consoles depending of the game type .

No it isn't.

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=997985

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Uh, no it isn't.

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=997985

What does active accounts have to do with anything ?
Certain games sell more on consoles , WRPG , FPS , Open world games , Japanese games etc etc

 

[DaleinCalgary]

I've had some exposure to deals like this in my past job. I'M ONLY SPECULATING BELOW, but here's how I would think the deal is structured based on my experience:

• Guessing that MS paid somewhere in the range of $25M - $50M for deal. Saying that based on the fact that they could split dev costs somewhat-equal across both MS and SE, but with SE taking a slight majority of the burden since they're developing the game and have control over that.
• Speculating that MS signed this deal knowing they would probably lose some money in the short term (TR sales), but thought it was worth it to drive X1 sales with its exclusivity. Pretty common for large corps with shit tons of cash to sign a deal that has a much longer payoff than the deal's terms.
• Square Enix wants this deal because it allows them to leverage MS for a big marketing push and also so they can mitigate cost risk for their developer. They basically are getting a security blanket with MS if things go south because MS will help eat the sales deficits, but they relinquish some up-side for profitability in the long run. They specifically lose up-side because there is significant lost sales momentum when the game releases on PC and PS4 well after the X1 release.
• MS is a joint publisher with SE, but MS structures deal so they are less liable for a sales deficit. This is because SE is developer and has more control in the game's success.
• MS fronts and executes the majority of marketing (for X1 release only) in return for exclusivity. MS has a huge marketing arm already, so they can use economies of scale to get marketing for cheaper than SE can on their own.

I really would love to see a leaked copy of this contract!

Thanks for the info.

 

[etta]

A okay number for TR would have been to match the first one sales on MS platforms .
A good number would have been to show some growth from the first one since it exclusive .



If FFXV comes out late next year SE not going to spend a cent on TR .
This deal really hurt the IP.

Not really. But 2 years later is long enough that the install base argument is not strong anymore. The fact that publishers are releasing current gen only games even though dev cost is not cheaper means they believe the current gen install base, while smaller, are strong enough to make up for last gen volume.

Personally the minimum measure of success for ROTR IMO is no more than a 30-35% decline from the combined PS3/360 sales of TR2013.

Well, to start off with, at least matching the number that TR 2013 did on 360 back when it launched would be a good start (348k).

Okay, thanks for the perspective.
I thought the expectations were more linear and based off of an attach rate.

 

[Square2015]

HIstorical NPD for November!
Big releases this month, check 'em out. Records broken (for their respective times) in 3 out of 4 of the past cycles.

 

[Intrigue]

SE did it to themselves.

I hope this example stops all 3rd party developers from holding back games from the entire audience on either side of ps4 or XBO.

What 3rd party AAA games have PS4 payed for to not have it released/delayed for XBO?

 

[watdaeff4]

What 3rd party AAA games have PS4 payed for to not have it released/delayed for XBO?

You serious?

 

[Primethius]

HIstorical NPD for November!
Big releases this month, check 'em out. Records broken in 3 out of 4 of the past cycles.

Christ, the MW2 difference.

 

[spatenfloot]

So only when would 175K be acceptable, maybe if it was a launch title day and date as the console?

175k would never be acceptable for a big budget AAA game.

 

[NoMoreTrolls]

You serious?

Hooray, here comes another SFV derail! Well, the thread was good while it lasted!

 

[Saucycarpdog]

What does active accounts have to do with anything ?
Certain games sell more on consoles , WRPG , FPS , Open world games , Japanese games etc etc

Did you read what you posted? You said PC is the largest only in certain game types but 125 million active accounts shows PC has the largest amount of players.

 

[watdaeff4]

Hooray, here comes another SFV derail! Well, the thread was good while it lasted!

I never mentioned any game specifically.

And (s)he asked a question I was just asking if it was a serious question.

 

[theprodigy]

Nintendo's line up for the last quarter of the year has been a complete disaster, I don't remember something like this. The only game that is performing well is Yoshi’s Woolly World.

Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon didn't do too bad since it sold on par with Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Gates to Infinity.

October:

[WIU] Yoshi's Woolly World - 165,000
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Tri Force Heroes - 83,000
[3DS] Chibi-Robo! Zip Lash - 35,000
[WIU] Fatal Frame: Maiden of Black Water - Nintendo eShop only

November:

[3DS] Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon - 115,000
[WIU] Animal Crossing: amiibo Festival - 36,000
[WIU] Mario Tennis: Ultra Smash - 18,000

December:

[WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X

This is a pretty weak field.

Spoiler

time for XCX to sneak into 1st!

 

[JohnnyFootball]

I saw some people saying Fallout 4 actually sold more on X1? What am I missing?

 

[watdaeff4]

I saw some people saying Fallout 4 actually sold more on X1? What am I missing?

Bundles

 

[Bastables]

175k would never be acceptable for a big budget AAA game.

Unless we are in 1994.... Or an alternate universe where the order's 200k was regarded as a smashing success.

 

[Welfare]

I saw some people saying Fallout 4 actually sold more on X1? What am I missing?

The bundle helped.

 

[NoMoreTrolls]

I saw some people saying Fallout 4 actually sold more on X1? What am I missing?

The difference between the two is roughly 10k AFAIK.

 

[Raist]

I saw some people saying Fallout 4 actually sold more on X1? What am I missing?

Bundles

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Did you read what you posted? You said PC is the largest only in certain game types but 125 million active accounts shows PC has the largest amount of players.

Unless we talking past each other what does that have to do with sales ?

Unless we are in 1994.... Or an alternate universe where the order's 200k was regarded as a smashing success.

Funny enough The Order might sell more than TR WW until it get on PC\PS4.

 

[Primethius]

Unless we are in 1994.... Or an alternate universe where the order's 200k was regarded as a smashing success.

I mean, the Order's numbers should put ROTR in perspective.

The Order was:
- A critical failure
- Met with extremely negative WOM
- A brand new IP (probably the most important aspect, generally)

It sold about the same as ROTR (more if you compare current gen vs current gen), which has none of those things going for it.

 

[jayu26]

I saw some people saying Fallout 4 actually sold more on X1? What am I missing?

COD sold better on PS4 and Fallout on Xbone...Bundles, I mean Bunduru.

 

[VillageBC]

I don't know if TR would have done that well if it was released on everything at once. Having playing TR2013, I was definitely not going to be dipping into that franchise again with the direction it went. I found it's violence and gore to be unpalatable. I wonder if the more mainstream, more casual found the same turn off. That and frankly, TR2013 wasn't that interesting anyway.

 

[Jigorath]

HIstorical NPD for November!
Big releases this month, check 'em out. Records broken (for their respective times) in 3 out of 4 of the past cycles.

Thanks.

These are always interesting.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

The bundle helped.

which bundle? i dont recall there being a bundle for Fallout...

 

[xaosslug]

i think peeps writing off the PS4 release of RotTR are speaking too soon. Releasing after U4 + it being well-reviewed will help the remastered (LOL) definitive edition sell well on PS4.

 

[Game Guru]

Your anecdote does not trump the general market perception.

Price, ease, form factor, unified login, all games.
Until they can all be addressed, nothing is changing.

Price: PCs come in a variety of price points from cheapass intergrated laptops to monster gaming rigs.
Ease: The most popular PC Games are also the ones which can run on any sort of hardware. Conversely, knowing which sorts of games will run on a PC is only somewhat more complicated than knowing what apps will run on a mobile device.
Form Factor: PCs come in a variety of form factors include console-like ones.
Unified Login: Consumers today have more usernames and passwords than ever for various services that companies like Microsoft, Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, Netflix, Hulu, Vudu, Spotify, etc, etc, etc have. Having both a Steam account and an Origin account isn't that complicated comparatively.
All Games: Not even a single console has all games.

That being said, PC does seem to be coexisting with consoles rather than supplanting them. What declines there are in console sales can be more attributed to mobile than PC if anything.

 

[watdaeff4]

which bundle? i dont recall there being a bundle for Fallout...

Google it

 

[Welfare]

which bundle? i dont recall there being a bundle for Fallout...

.

 

[Loudninja]

i think peeps writing off the PS4 release of RotTR are speaking too soon. Releasing after U4 + it being well-reviewed will help the remastered (LOL) definitive edition sell well on PS4.

It is too early to say but a year wait and releasing in the Holiday season does not help its chances.

 

[Primethius]

The Battlefront PS4 bundle is at #43 on the yearly charts for Amazon. Was it always in this position or is this post-299 price?

 

[jackdoe]

Well, to start off with, at least matching the number that TR 2013 did on 360 back when it launched would be a good start (348k).

Actually, I'd suspect that S-E wanted/expected growth over the 360 version as they sold the reboot for bargain bin prices AND gave it away for free with GwG to try to drive growth for the sequel.

One thing is for certain though. S-E definitely did not expect sales to be this poor when drafting the timed exclusivity deal with MS. If they had expected sales to be this bad, MS would have balked at how much money/incentives S-E wanted for the deal to offset the damage to the franchise and the deal never would have been signed.

 

[BigSoftieFF]

i think peeps writing off the PS4 release of RotTR are speaking too soon. Releasing after U4 + it being well-reviewed will help the remastered (LOL) definitive edition sell well on PS4.

I hope it doesn't. Fuck em...

 

[xaosslug]

It is too early to say but a year wait and releasing in the Holiday season does not help its chances.

i wonder what incentives they'll have by then, tho? Like, maybe, do some PS4-exclusive DLC? There has to be something! LOL

 

[spatenfloot]

i think peeps writing off the PS4 release of RotTR are speaking too soon. Releasing after U4 + it being well-reviewed will help the remastered (LOL) definitive edition sell well on PS4.

I think most people will be unwilling to pay full price for a delayed game when all the new stuff is out next year. Personally, I will be waiting for $20-30.

 

[xaosslug]

I hope it doesn't. Fuck em...

aw, XD

 

[Primethius]

Actually, I'd suspect that S-E wanted/expected growth over the 360 version as they sold the reboot for bargain bin prices AND gave it away for free with GwG to try to drive growth for the sequel.

One thing is for certain though. S-E definitely did not expect sales to be this poor when drafting the timed exclusivity deal with MS. If they had expected sales to be this bad, MS would have balked at how much money/incentives S-E wanted for the deal to offset the damage to the franchise and the deal never would have been signed.

For sure, you'd definitely expect some sort of growth. But at the very least, matching the prior version should be the start. Not a 50% decline on that basis alone.

But I don't know about SE not signing the deal. By all accounts and details of the deal we do have, after the UC4 delay, SE actually agreed to increase the timed exclusivity period from 6 months for the PS4 version to 1 year.

I mean... god, that's dumb.

 

[Saucycarpdog]

Unless we talking past each other what does that have to do with sales ?

So now we're talking about sales? OK then. PC revenue surpassed console revenue last year.


http://www.pcr-online.biz/news/read/pc-games-have-surpassed-console-games-globally/033849

 

[xaosslug]

I think most people will be unwilling to pay full price for a delayed game when all the new stuff is out next year. Personally, I will be waiting for $20-30.

would they be dump enough to charge full price? I'm hoping they would have self-awareness to do $39.99 reasonable.

 

[BigSoftieFF]

But I don't know about SE not signing the deal. By all accounts and details of the deal we do have, after the UC4 delay, SE actually agreed to increase the timed exclusivity period from 6 months for the PS4 version to 1 year.

I mean... god, that's dumb.

Did not know that. Wow

 

[gundamkyoukai]

So now we're talking about sales? OK then.


http://www.pcr-online.biz/news/read/pc-games-have-surpassed-console-games-globally/033849

I give up you seem to be missing my point completely .

 

[Saucycarpdog]

I give up you seem to be missing my point completely .

And what point exactly is that? You said at first that PC gaming is only the largest if you look at certain games. But all the evidence I'm providing to you right shows PC going is the largest in every category, player numbers and software sales.

PC is the largest market. Period.

 

[Ray Down]

would they be dump enough to charge full price? I'm hoping they would have self-awareness to do $39.99 reasonable.

If they add all the DLC in there mind that would justify a year late port released in the busiest time of the year. Hopefully SE has some sales clause to let them release yearly.

Also if it does release this time next year, expect zero marketing since SE will be busy with FFXV.