I don't think the problem of the game is exactly the platform and either a 3DS or a NX port and it might not be of any benefit for any party involved to port it. However is all hope for it lost since it's like 1 or 2 days of sales?
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Media Create Sales: Week 52, 2015 (Dec 21 - Dec 27)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I don't think the problem of the game is exactly the platform and either a 3DS or a NX port and it might not be of any benefit for any party involved to port it. However is all hope for it lost since it's like 1 or 2 days of sales?
I guess he technically said "highest-profitable", which isn't necessarily unit sales.
I think that would instead put it up against Final Fantasy XI which made a gazillion dollars off of sub fees for 10+ years.
http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/pdf/ar_2013_01en.pdf
If this was an IGN interview I'd view it as a total whatever statement, but it's addressed to shareholders who use this report to project whether it's worth it to keep investing in the company which puts more weight on it.
They can manage the "Highest profitable" if they writeoff the 8 years when the game was FF XIII-Vs
otherwise that's a pipe dream. You won't get 10 million units sold with "boys band on a brotrip" image in the west.ohyouagain
Member
Lemme guess. Splatoon launched on Week 22 ? Inkredible indeed.
I think at some point we have to write off the sales potential of the title based on investment or titles released six years ago and instead base it on what the market is like now.
I get why they looked at their investment and went "Well Hitman Absolution should sell 4.5 to 5 million copies," but that was insanity.
At this point, unless they really, truly believe they can make titles that resonate on the level of the games I mentioned earlier, they should basically start budgeting the series to sell like BioWare titles do. Dragon Age: Inquisition didn't light the charts on fire compared to other games, but EA was ecstatic with how it performed.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Joke's on you. The game's development rebooted in 2012 and it was never in full development for a "decade".
Hajime Tabata has also talked about the budget and it certainly isn't some crazy figure despite all this development for a "decade" talk. Here is what he had to say for the budget of FFXV.
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/final-fantasy-15-director-qanda-the-race-to-the-fi/1100-6429741/
I hope this ends all the FFXV has a crazy budget talk.
I don't think anyone expects Final Fantasy XV cost $200+ million, which is what the question was asking him.
It's not hard to imagine they've sunk in $100 million over that time period, but that's not the value they should be trying to base their expectations on since presumably they're not expecting this type of development cycle for every future title.
It's not hard to imagine they've sunk in $100 million over that time period, but that's not the value they should be trying to base their expectations on since presumably they're not expecting this type of development cycle for every future title.
timetokill
Banned
The weird pseudo port begging going on in here regarding #FE is totally bizarre.
I often wonder if the money they poured into FF XIII Vs is what prompted them to release mediocre "sequels" to FF XIII in order to recoup their investment and, in the same process, tarnish the FF brand even worse than the original FF XIV did,
It's going to be an uphill battle for them in the west (and honestly? Even in Japan, FF XIII LR didn't exactly sell anywhere close to their expectations)
DarkLordMalik
Member
The Witcher 3 cost $81 million and that was in a country where the developers had low salary and expenses. If Witcher 3 was developed in Japan, it would have cost far more than what it did in Poland due to the difference in expenses.
Metal Gear Solid V had a reported development budget of $80 million, and while not cheap, it was in development for a while.
FFXV is obviously not cheap but I think it being developed along with an in-house engine is going to increase the development cost. But it is not due to the game being in development for a "decade".
While the sequels to FFXIII were from never anything special I don't think they can compare to the absolute mess that was Final Fantasy XIV vanilla.
I imagine the biggest driving factor was their inability to release anything else.
If they could have sat there and released a brand new full scale Final Fantasy game in three years they would have done it.
We've had a total of two non-MMO mainline Final Fantasy games in the past 15 years, so they probably weren't super positive on their odds of getting a new mainline game out quickly.
Okay let me try explaining this one a different way.
There are likely many extenuating circumstances causing Final Fantasy XV to cost more money to make relative to what they're creating than if they had started developing the game today with their current technology set and knowledge.
Given that, their expectations for Final Fantasy XV should be set based on what they feel they need in order to make Final Fantasy XVI in a timely and efficient manner based on what they know and have now.
Let's say they set expectations to 5-6 million copies. If they hit that, they can go "Well people still like what we're making and we can use this as a rough base for what we do next. We obviously need to improve the quality for the next game, as expectations are always rising, but we have a clear path and know-how on how to do this and likely result in a notably profitable product." This is a good outcome even if the combined development and marketing costs of Final Fantasy XV are not recovered by selling 5-6 million copies, since the path to future profitability is relatively clear.
If Final Fantasy XV instead sells 3 million copies, then they probably have to go back to the drawing board and predicting what to do becomes much harder. It also brings in a lot of questions about how they should go about making big titles like this in general, since they don't want to be losing money or only breaking even on this kind of investment.
Now, obviously there are factors like average selling price and DLC sales and digital ratios, but the general concept holds that the real concern is setting up for future success instead of judging this title in a vacuum.
FF XIV Vanilla was a mess experienced by a few
FFXIII-2 and 3 were messes experienced by many, especially among the japanese gamers.
Its not that weird, the game is a complete flop.
It's weird because somehow Sega should be unhappy about its inabillity to port a Nintendo IP for a crossover game Nintendo funded
It's weird because somehow Sega should be unhappy about its inabillity to port a Nintendo IP for a crossover game Nintendo funded
Well, the poster was probably unaware of that.
DarkLordMalik
Member
This makes a lot of sense. I agree with your post.
There is another factor that will matter a lot for FFXV though. How well it is received by the critics? Will it be another black spot in the history of franchise or actually regain the trust of fans and bring new ones to the series. If FFXV receives critical acclaim, it shouldn't have much issue in achieving its sales target. Sadly it is not as easy since the game is being released after FFXIII.
I don't think a game like FFXIII could have sold as well as it did (6-7 million) if it was released after a critical failure. So FFXV has a tough hill to climb.
So Nirolak depending on how much they actually expect to sell do you think they're only expecting 1:4 ratio for Japanese sales?
I speculated that the reason they were throwing so much at PS4 in Japan is because FF still gets around a third of its sales from Japan(and that's at a nadir).
I also wonder how the FF7R project might have affected their projections for FFXV. It's now facing competition within its own brand.
I speculated that the reason they were throwing so much at PS4 in Japan is because FF still gets around a third of its sales from Japan(and that's at a nadir).
I also wonder how the FF7R project might have affected their projections for FFXV. It's now facing competition within its own brand.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Nomura has said that the next update for the game will be after KH II.8 and WoFF releases so I am sure they don't have any competition in 2016, when the game is actually released. As in I don't expect any announcements updates for the majority of 2016.
Based on what has been said for the FFVII: Remake, I don't think we can expect it in early 2017. More like late 2017-early 2018 for the first Part -_-
Admittedly I am nitpicking tremendously, but there have been three non-MMO mainline Final Fantasy releases in the past 15 years, yeah? FFX was 2001.
Sorry, it's just that that quote really stopped and made me think ("mAdE mE tHiNk") and three is still a big problem but... hell, at least it ain't two.
(Still, FFX came out just after IX, which was just after VIII, which was just after VII. I suppose it makes the most sense to observe Square from 2002 onward. In which case, yikes.)
Sorry, it's just that that quote really stopped and made me think ("mAdE mE tHiNk") and three is still a big problem but... hell, at least it ain't two.
(Still, FFX came out just after IX, which was just after VIII, which was just after VII. I suppose it makes the most sense to observe Square from 2002 onward. In which case, yikes.)
Aaron Strife
Banned
Nintendo is nuts if they don't have Spla2n ready for NX launch, or failing that a GotY edition or whatever.
True but anyone waiting for the next FF might now instead wait for FFVIIR instead. Also maybe the "First on PS4" stuff was simply because they'll have to switch to PS5 before they finish the releases!
That's possible but that depends on people liking the changes to FFVII. It could backfire.
Sinister as this sounds, that may depend on how much Square is willing to divulge prior to FFXV's release.
Sinister as this sounds, that may depend on how much Square is willing to divulge prior to FFXV's release.
Judging by all the damage control they had to do once people learned about the splitting of FF VII, I'd say it may have already backfired
UnemployedVillain
Member
I'm not saying the game can't/isn't be technically better, but a lot of people do judge a game based on the story/theme/artstyle. A DMC game that looked like a generic anime game isn't going to appeal to DMC fans, even if it's gameplay is better
Eternal Gamer
Member
It's weird because somehow Sega should be unhappy about its inabillity to port a Nintendo IP for a crossover game Nintendo funded
I thought it was a collaboration like those crossovers between Capcom and Namco, so I was unaware Nintendo funded completely the project, my fault.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I see you are still taking averages.
What reality are you referring to? That PS4 will not be able to succeed its 2015 sales? FFXV not selling 1 million?
Ultimately, what is your point? You went from the absurd statement that 2015 was a stacked year for the PS4, then in an attempt to make it seem less absurd referred it as relative to the WiiU which takes nearly all weight from the initial claim and now you are saying that you don't see 2016 as a notable improvement in comparison to 2015, which I find incredibly hard to believe after seeing said 2016 lineup in its entirety.
GloriousBagel
Banned
Only to get killed off faster than Ebola
Reading through the thread I find it amusing how the discussion about #FE bomba is going into the "the RPG audience is not on Wii U" which is damn wrong excuse to use in the case of #FE. The reason this failed is because the idol audience is not on Wii U, but rather on the other born dead platform.
That's the truth. A lot of people who are not into idols but enjoy RPGs (me included) will not give the game any chance, no matter how good it is in reality, because the presentation is a major turn off.
That's the truth. A lot of people who are not into idols but enjoy RPGs (me included) will not give the game any chance, no matter how good it is in reality, because the presentation is a major turn off.
shadow2810
Member
Wii U has like 2 RPG games in its life time, saying the audience is not there isn't wrong.
Might be true (although based on very limited data), but it's irrelevant for #FE.
Heh, granted that hasn't gone over well. I'm interested in seeing what sort of messages are put out re: FFVII-R the next time it's in the limelight. No doubt the marketing team is gonna be working to ensure it's a more positive, comprehensive st -- eh, heh, naw, it's Square, I could see it being another odd moment.
I don't own a Wii U, so I don't technically have much ground to agree with you on here, but I'd own a Wii U if there were RPGs I were interested in. And I'm not an idol fan either (in fact, I detest the culture). The presentation was one of the fastest "holy heck, nope" things I've seen in a long time, and in the lead-up to the reveal I'd been listing SMT x FE as one of the reasons I might have been convinced to grab the console.
That written, I don't know that I can agree fully. I look at the sales for Mario Kart, for Splatoon, for Smash, and then, how has XCX fared? I think there's something to be said for the difference in units. I think the Wii U is not a total RPG no fly zone, but it isn't the most appealing system in that regard, either. I concur with the analysis that Nintendo allowed Sony to scoop up a hefty number of folks in that audience a long time ago.
January : 9 releases
February : 12 releases
March : 18 releases
April : 11 releases
May : 9 releases
June : 9 releases
July : 12 releases
August : 11 releases
September : 15 releases
October : 13 releases
November : 18 releases
December : 16 releases
So why are you talking about "average"? The PS4 has had a constant flow of games all year round, with new entries in all its major franchises (FF, DQ, MGS, Yakuza and the yearly western games selling more and more in Japan) and what's arguably the third best exclusive of the year for home consoles.
Most of that 2016 lineup is made of games that :
- were either part of the initial 2015 lineup and got pushed back to 2016
- will be pushed back to 2017 (because nope, SE isn't going to release DQ11, FF15, FF7r, KH 2.8 and KH3 in 2016 and I'll believe it when I see it that SCEJ will be able to release any game on time so I'm not expecting either TLG or GT to make it either).
And since you're seemingly prety slow to understand, my initial point was "at this rate, the PS4 won't be able to catch WiiU before mid 2017 since it barely move more hardware despite having a stacked year for games".
What's the context you're not understanding here? What's the comparasion between the PS4 and the WiiU that you seem to be completely oblivious to? Are you going to suggest that as far as home consoles go, the PS4 release schedule for 2015 wasn't stacked? Despite having at the worst 9 new games a month and at best 18? When just the month of november alone had almost more releases than the entirety of the WiiU this year?
And yes, I believe 2016 to be more of the same for PS4 as far as the game lineup is. Instead of some spinoffs and some major entries, we'll get some major entries and some spinoffs (FF? check, DQ? Check, Soul game? Check, Yakuza? Check, Tales of? Check). Which means, again, a prety stacked year as far as releases go but I doubt it will move a lot more systems than 2015 did (give or take 20%)
ArkhamFantasy
Member
I follow this thread weekly and i havent seen a successful RPG on the Wii U.
Maybe I didn't express my idea in the right way. I don't think that "the RPG audience is not on Wii U" is wrong. I think using this as an excuse for #FE bomba is wrong.
Edit: I edited the initial post too, I hope it made it more clear.
Define successfull, DQX performed above expectations, same with MH3U. Xenoblade more or less bombed. Are there any other RPGs that were released? I know the sentiment was the same for the original Wii but I believe it was more a case of missed opportunity and the DS/PSP cannibalizing the market as far as low budget/low level assets RPGs went.
Yeah, that was an odd post. PS4 didn't exactly have big releases from Japan side of things this year with the only exception of MGS. All things considering the PS4 did well in the 2nd half despite having long dry spells and the bump in hardware sales during holidays even though Sony systems don't usually have big bumps during it. Maybe it's selling because the consumers now have confidence in the PS4 after seeing the lineup for it's 2016 software releases making the PS4 an attractive buy?
Sakura
Member
But it's not really an idol game. Most of that stuff happens off screen and at least half the cast aren't idols.
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
They can manage the "Highest profitable" if they writeoff the 8 years when the game was FF XIII-Vs
In the West alone, no. Worldwide combined, I wouldn't be so quick to bet against a resurgence.
You'd need to define successful or, at least, what their intent was with a title (of the handful of RPGs that even exist). There's a performance like #FE (which is even below Bayo2), and then there's performances like DQX (sustained expansion sales, subscription) and XCX. They certainly didn't post impressive results but defining success or failure is hard to gauge. Especially with the two I mentioned since one has been going for ages now and has likely made a pretty penny on expansions and subs, and Xenoblade is definitely an ongoing portfolio play (with some actual proper market research done apriori) and Nintendo isn't paying itself royalties so its returns don't need to be as high.
Wait, you think FFXV will show significant growth from FFXIII in Japan?
FF VII sold 11 million units worldwide, 4.8 million of those came from Japan. That's (I believe) the best selling FF to date, followed by FF VIII. From there on, it's been downhill ever since. What makes people believe that after 3 mediocre games, FF XV will buck that trend?
Greater asian market, is probably his intention.
Sakura
Member
Niche rpgs don't always post crazy numbers anyway. How much did the devil survivor games, or etrian odyssey sell?
Just because it is ATLUS doesn't mean it's gonna do Persona or SMT numbers.
DarkLordMalik
Member
What did I miss with both of these games performing "above expecations"? What sort of expectations are we talking about here and whose?
Oh well then unless I'm mistaken it would have to do unprecedented monstrous numbers?
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
I believe FFXV can hold steady in Japan and potentially grow worldwide (compared to FF's since VII and perhaps VIII), including in the rest of Asia and the West. I don't think it's likely, but I do think it's possible to be the second FF to hit 10 million units sold, in this case as an absolute high water mark (it'd still be less than VII). The mass market in both Japan and the west has reacted extremely positively to some unusual Nomura designs, I would not count out anything right now, though I think an FFXIII-esque 6 million is a safer guess.
Imo you are drinking way too much of your own brand of cool aid.
It is plain to see that in terms of type (if not quantity) of releases 2016 will blow 2015 out of the water for PS4 releases.
FF XV, SF5, SO5, P5, KH 2.8, DQB, DS3, NiOh, DQ11, TLG, GT Sports, Gravity Rush 2, Attack on Titan... Only a few.
The only big ones in 2015 afaik were DQH, FF XV demo, MGS V and... Bloodborne?