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February 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 8th

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD February 2016 retail period (January 31-February 27, 2016) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, March 8th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 31-February 27, 2016 (4 weeks, January was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, March 10th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:
Note: WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. It is not included for point results directly.

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in February:
Tax Refunds coming in
Fire Emblem Fates n3DSXL - $200 (Feb. 19) - 9 days
Pokemon 20th Anniversary Edition n3DS - $200 (Feb. 27) - 1 day

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

January's Results (used for predicitons)
1. PS4 - 230K
2. XB1 - 130K
3. 3DS - 70K
4. WIU - 40K

January 2015 NPD thread
February 2015 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 

Welfare

Member
Alright, so this wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of January and February. Both months are 4 weeks long. Should help you guys.

Code:
2010

Xbox 360 January: 333K / 4 = 83,250
Xbox 360 February: 422K / 4 = 105,500

Weekly average up 27%

PS3 January: 277K / 4 = 69,250
PS3 February: 360K / 4 = 90,000

Weekly average up 30%

Wii January: 466K / 4 = 116,500
Wii February: 398K / 4 = 99,500

Weekly average down 15%

Code:
2011

Xbox 360 January: 381K / 4 = 95,250
Xbox 360 February: 535K / 4 = 133,750

Weekly average up 40%

PS3 January: 267K / 4 = 66,750
PS3 February: 403K / 4 = 100,750

Weekly average up 51%

Wii January: 319K / 4 = 79,750
Wii February: 455K / 4 = 113,750

Weekly average up 43%

Code:
2012

Xbox 360 January: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Xbox 360 February: 426K / 4 = 106,500

Weekly average up 58%

PS3 January: 195K / 4 = 48,750
PS3 February: 347K / 4 = 86,750

Weekly average up 78%

Wii January: 152K / 4 = 38,000
Wii February: 224K / 4 = 56,000

Weekly average up 47%

Code:
2013 (January 2013 is a 5 week month. Only happens once in awhile)

Xbox 360 January: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Xbox 360 February: 302K / 4 = 75,500

Weekly average up 34%

PS3 January: 200K / 5 = 40,000
PS3 February: 262K / 4 = 65,500

Weekly average up 64%

Wii January: 100K / 5 = 20,000
Wii February: 99K / 4 = 24,750

Weekly average up 24%

Wii U January: 57K / 5 = 11,400
Wii U February: 66K / 4 = 16,500

Weekly average up 45%

Code:
2014

Xbox 360 January: 48K / 4 = 12,000
Xbox 360 February: 114K / 4 = 28,500

Weekly average up 138%

Xbox One January: 141K / 4 = 35,250
Xbox One February: 258K / 4 = 64,500

Weekly average up 83%

PS3 January: 53K / 4 = 13,250
PS3 February: 102K / 4 = 25,500

Weekly average up 92%

PS4 January: 271K / 4 = 67,750
PS4 February: 269K / 4 = 67,250

Weekly average down 1%

Wii January: 10K / 4 = 2,500
Wii February: 30K / 4 = 7,500

Weekly average up 200%

Wii U January: 49K / 4 = 12,250
Wii U February: 82K / 4 = 20,500

Weekly average up 67%

Code:
2015

Xbox 360/PS3/Wii = Basically dead (and no numbers were leaked for Feb-Oct) 

Xbox One January: 150K / 4 = 37,500
Xbox One February: 276K / 4 = 69,000

Weekly average up 84%

PS4 January: 189K / 4 = 47,250
PS4 February: 342K / 4 = 85,500

Weekly average up 81%

Wii U January: 63K / 4 = 15,750
Wii U February: 95K / 4 = 23,750

Weekly average up 51%

2016 January Weekly averages

Xbox One: 132K / 4 = 33,000
PS4: 230K / 4 = 57,500
Wii U: 40K / 4 = 10,000

Some notes:

- February is tax returns month! -Parties- That is why there is a huge increase in sales seen this month, and in fact, February is either one of or THE biggest month in the pre season.

- Always expect the weekly average to go up (At least 40% is a safe bet). There were only 2 instances in the past 6 years where this was not the case. Subject 1 is the Wii in 2010, which just came off of the biggest December ever recorded (3.81m) and sales in January were still feeling the effect of Wii's being restocked (?) back in December. Subject 2 is the PS4 in 2014, and that was because of stock issues.

- The highest February ever recorded between the 7th and 8th gen was the Wii with 753k back in 2009. Second biggest? The 360 with 535k back in 2011.

[PS4] 385K
[XB1] 241K
[3DS] 110K
[WIU] 66k
 
PS4 is going to do big things the next 3 NPD months (Feb, March and April) I feel...Uncharted and mindshare are going to help a lot.
 

Abdiel

Member
Ps4 doing very well, but it's still tax season, we've seen folks picking up both consoles. Just comfortable lead by Sony's machine.

Also. No one gives a shit about the the division bundle. Seriously.
 

Kysen

Member
Ps4 doing very well, but it's still tax season, we've seen folks picking up both consoles. Just comfortable lead by Sony's machine.

Also. No one gives a shit about the the division bundle. Seriously.

Same sort of difference like last month?
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
[PS4] 385,000
[XB1] 235,000
[3DS] 130,000
[WIU] 65,000

TOP TEN Software

#1 Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO; PS4; 360; PS3; PC)
#2 Fire Embelm Fates (3DS)
#3 Far Cry Primal (PS4; XBO; PC)
#4 Grand Theft Auto V (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3; PC)
#5 NBA 2K16 (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3)
#6 Minecraft (360; XBO; PS4; PS3)
#7 Fallout 4 (PS4; XBO; PC)
#8 Star Wars: Battlefront (XBO; PS4; PC)
#9 Naruto shippuden: Ultimate Ninja storm (PS4; XBO; PC)
#10 Lego Marvel Avengers (360, PS4; XBO; Wii U; PS3; 3DS; Vita)


Fire Emblem: Fates (combined SKUs) < 400,000 [retail+digital]
Far Cry Primal > 300,000 [retail]
Naruto > 250,000 [retail]
Streeth Fighter V < 180,000 [retail]
Digimon < 100,000 [retail]
 

Ray Down

Banned
Ps4 doing very well, but it's still tax season, we've seen folks picking up both consoles. Just comfortable lead by Sony's machine.

Also. No one gives a shit about the the division bundle. Seriously.

Isn't it at a higher price point then the rest of the skus/bundles?
 

Boke1879

Member
I see the PS4 doing very well this month. the COD bundle will continue to push it's sales until Uncharted 4 releases.
 

ethomaz

Banned
This month will be an easy one I guess.

PS4 will be up YoY due the price cut.
Xbone will be down YoY due MS doing nothing about and just re-releasing high priced bundles.
Wii U will be down YoY because you know it already near to be replaced.
3DS will be a lot down YoY.

[3DS] 177k
[PS4] 371k
[WIU] 66k
[XB1] 242k
 
[PS4] 405k
[XB1] 285k
[3DS] 110k
[WIU] 49k

Still feeling the sting of last month, my worst performance yet. I want to be a little safer, but I really want to believe that they can get these numbers...
 
Hardware probably the same as last month with sony leading the way. And software probably the same with two entries are FC primal and FE. With super disappointing numbers for SFV.
 
[3DS] 125k
[PS4] 325k
[WIU] 40k
[XB1] 250k

whew a quite a bit of sub 100k 3ds predictions in here
fire emblem should prop it more than enough to pass that, well I would think at least perhaps not
 

jjonez18

Member
[PS4] 370k
[XB1] 260k
[3DS] 150k
[WIU] 75k

Digimon - 100k*
SFV - 200k
Far Cry - 400k
Gravity Rush - 25k*
Naruto - 350k**

*Believe!
**Believe it!
 

RexNovis

Banned
Seeing a LOT of really high 3DS estimates again. What is it with people and severely overestimating 3DS? It only sold ~70k last month guys. Unless you think FE is going to push substantial numbers of HW in which case: you crazy. Cool your jets.

[PS4] 405k
[XB1] 285k
[3DS] 110k
[WIU] 49k

Still feeling the sting of last month, my worst performance yet. I want to be a little safer, but I really want to believe that they can get these numbers...

My PS4, 3DS and WiiU numbers are higher than yours. I find your optimism ... lacking. ;)
 
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