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[J@hranimo]

Does anyone know what Kimishima has for breakfast on the morning of a FY Investor Meeting/Briefing/Q&A? If we can find out what he eats for breakfast, this could clue us in to what he may or may not say about NX. A few ingredients might even suggest the direction they're taking the next 3D Mario game. I'm just trying to be rationale here.

If it's a heavy breakfast then we'll know he'll drop the deets

 

[Javier]

The first 10 minutes of the next Direct is going to be Kimishima eating breakfast. He won't say anything until he's done.

 

[Tempy]

"This FY" can still mean March 2017 :|

 

[MuchoMalo]

Approximate countdown to Nintendo's 2015 Fiscal Year Earnings Release/News Conference:

This counts down to the market close of the JPX day session (15:15/03:15 PM JST). I do not know if the news conference will start right away, so allow for maybe half an hour to 45 minutes extra.

I'm actually excited to see the results.

"This FY" can still mean March 2017 :|

Yes, but that would only be three extra months and, really, what are the odds of a new console being released outside of the holiday season in the west?

I suppose - but they can just say "We will be releasing our new console in the coming fiscal year" and that's basically something we already know

That's not confirmed and a lot of people (including our favorite analyst) insist otherwise, so that confirmation isn't meaningless.

 

[Squall5042]

Nintendo is going to give their forecasts for the new fiscal year this week.

If NX is coming out this fiscal year, the forecasts will reflect this.

Nintendo has already said in the past that this is the FY during which they will return to "Nintendo-like profits."

They'd be stupid to expect investors to believe their presumably really high and optimistic forecasts without explaining where the forecast revenues will come from.

I suppose - but they can just say "We will be releasing our new console in the coming fiscal year" and that's basically something we already know

 

[LegendofLex]

I suppose - but they can just say "We will be releasing our new console in the coming fiscal year" and that's basically something we already know

They've never announced it.

 

[Anth0ny]

Smart expectations! Expect a statement akin to this:

keep in mind this is what we got 18 months before launch. it's all but confirmed that nx will be dropping this november, so I honestly expect a bit more.

if not today, I expect a firm date for when they will provide more details on NX, whether that's a nintendo direct or a press conference.

I think they'd be absolutely nuts to wait until E3 for the blow out. get the spotlight and do a separate thing, like MS and Sony did in 2013. at this point, a new console unveil is bigger than E3.

 

[Eradicate]

The first 10 minutes of the next Direct is going to be Kimishima eating breakfast. He won't say anything until he's done.

At the end, he's totally saying, "Good soup."

(Kimishima looks like a waffle man as far as breakfast choices.)

 

[Rösti]

Does anyone know what Kimishima has for breakfast on the morning of a FY Investor Meeting/Briefing/Q&A? If we can find out what he eats for breakfast, this could clue us in to what he may or may not say about NX. A few ingredients might even suggest the direction they're taking the next 3D Mario game. I'm just trying to be rationale here.

Special K for a special K.

 

[Pinky]

Still going for the Nintendo Cereal System theory, I see.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

Special K for a special K.

Notice the Wave-ey line separating the cereal from the logo on the box.

 

[KingWool]

At the end, he's totally saying, "Good soup."

(Kimishima looks like a waffle man as far as breakfast choices.)

He looks so sad

 

[MuchoMalo]

Notice the Wave-ey line separating the cereal from the logo on the box.

Nintendo Wave confirmed at last.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

He looks so sad

He just swallowed a morphball.

 

[Skittzo0413]

I like to think this is served in Nintendo's cafeteria.

Maybe along with a Birdo omelette station and (since it's japan) some Octorok and Blooper calamari

 

[spekkeh]

Notice the Wave-ey line separating the cereal from the logo on the box.

Kimishima eating the WiiU for breakfast, it's a sign.

A sign! Eat your Wii U and follow him!

 

[TunaLover]

They will not talk about NX this time though
Just a guess, I don't have any insider info, don't panic

 

[Menitta]

The first 10 minutes of the next Direct is going to be Kimishima eating breakfast. He won't say anything until he's done.

A Nintendo direct with no content would be the best! Kishimoto just fills for time.

 

[MuchoMalo]

They will not talk about NX this time though

You have confirmed this? Damn.

Kimishima eating the WiiU for breakfast, it's a sign.

A sign! Eat your Wii U and follow him!

Can I eat someone else's Wii U? I don't have have one. I guess I could walk down to GameStop and...

 

[Skittzo0413]

They will not talk about NX this time though

They have to at least briefly talk about the NX, even if they don't refer to it as NX.

I guarantee we will get SOME info on it, regardless of how minor it may seem.

Spoiler

Not an insider

 

[TunaLover]

You have confirmed this? Damn.

No, just a guess

 

[Dark Cloud]

They will not talk about NX this time though

Dang that sucks. I had hoped Kimishima would say something about the NX tonight or tomorrow.

 

[Ogodei]

Lemme just break down my logic here.

1. The 17-35 Western male demographic coveted by AAA third parties is already being exceptionally well served by Sony and MS.
2. Consequently, the only chance Nintendo has of making any real inroads with that demographic is with significant exclusive content targeting that demographic.
3. The only way to secure such content in time for NX launch would be if, several years ago, Nintendo had started investing massive amounts in first-party Western development well beyond the scope of their partnerships with the likes of Monster and NLG, and in moneyhatting third-parties.
4. In the past few years, I haven't seen a single rumor indicating that any such investments have been made, and it seems unlikely that they could keep such a huge sea change in their approach to Western development under wraps entirely for that long.
5. Consequently, I expect that NX, as with the last few Nintendo consoles, will have little to no exclusive content aimed at that demographic, and thus no real hope of making inroads into the Sony/MS market.

They have literally no chance of being considered as a credible alternative to Sony/MS if their advantages are limited to slightly better graphics and "our system has both CoD AND Mario on it!" Period.

But you're saying the third parties aren't even going to *try*, which i think is a bridge too far. With CoD in particular, Nintendo had a pretty good relationship there at one point, despite always being the little-known side version, they'll probably try a few versions this time.

All you really need are sales enough to justify the port, which is a low bridge especially if the thing's UE4 compatible and x86 based. I don't see getting back to Wii levels of multiplat support being out of the question. Even Gamecube levels could be possible.

 

[GamerJM]

The final day @___@.

(I'm guessing we won't get much, but at least a mention and then maybe some info in the coming days/weeks)

 

[Kaneda Shotaro]

How far ahead do they usually announce a Direct? Is it too late to expect a Nintendo Direct that announces the NX in early May?

 

[Zalman]

How far ahead do they usually announce a Direct? Is it too late to expect a Nintendo Direct that announces the NX in early May?

A couple of days. Anything is possible.

 

[Eradicate]

Special K for a special K.

 

[Rösti]

How far ahead do they usually announce a Direct? Is it too late to expect a Nintendo Direct that announces the NX in early May?

They usually announce Nintendo Direct broadcasts a day or two prior to the actual broadcast.

 

[Pinky]

Lol!

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

A couple of days. Anything is possible.

I think they'd announce an NX Direct more than a few days before it was happening.

 

[Possumowner]

OK I laughed way to hard.Well played

 

[Kaneda Shotaro]

A couple of days. Anything is possible.

They usually announce Nintendo Direct broadcasts a day or two prior to the actual broadcast.

Thanks! Then I would probably expect they have a big one in May announcing the system and name along with some surprises followed by E3 where they show off everything and the price. September, go over some of the Japanese release details.

 

[MuchoMalo]

But you're saying the third parties aren't even going to *try*, which i think is a bridge too far. With CoD in particular, Nintendo had a pretty good relationship there at one point, despite always being the little-known side version, they'll probably try a few versions this time.

All you really need are sales enough to justify the port, which is a low bridge especially if the thing's UE4 compatible and x86 based. I don't see getting back to Wii levels of multiplat support being out of the question. Even Gamecube levels could be possible.

ARM is much more likely than x86 at this point, unfortunately. The major engines all support ARM natively though. CoD's engine probably doesn't, but porting it shouldn't be too hard if there are no other bottlenecks.

That was quick.

 

[thefro]

Takashi Mochizuki (of the Wall Street Journal) on twitter's teasing that he's going to be sharing information from the briefing tomorrow. Not sure if he's going to do a liveblog again or not.

How far ahead do they usually announce a Direct? Is it too late to expect a Nintendo Direct that announces the NX in early May?

First week of May is likely out because that's Golden Week in Japan.

 

[Kaneda Shotaro]

Takashi Mochizuki (of the Wall Street Journal) on twitter's teasing that he's going to be sharing information from the briefing tomorrow. Not sure if he's going to do a liveblog again or not.



First week of May is likely out because that's Golden Week in Japan.

I was going to mention that. Week after Golden Week would be a perfect fit then E3 is only a few weeks away.

 

[Pinky]

I love this thread.

FY Investor Briefing --------> Arguments about Zelda --------> Cereal

Never change, GAF.

 

[Aostia]

I love this thread.

FY Investor Briefing --------> Arguments about Zelda --------> Cereal

Never change, GAF.

At least this temper the hype!

 

[usmanusb]

Normally by when we get the confirmation which company is gonna use the hall to present at e3?

 

[Father_Brain]

But you're saying the third parties aren't even going to *try*, which i think is a bridge too far. With CoD in particular, Nintendo had a pretty good relationship there at one point, despite always being the little-known side version, they'll probably try a few versions this time.

All you really need are sales enough to justify the port, which is a low bridge especially if the thing's UE4 compatible and x86 based. I don't see getting back to Wii levels of multiplat support being out of the question. Even Gamecube levels could be possible.

It may well get better AAA support in its first 6-12 months than Wii U did, before third parties start pulling support due to the early ports not selling. But that's as far as I'll go, and it's not exactly a high bar to clear.

Again, third parties are being very well served by Sony and MS right now. There's no reason to think they're desperate for new platforms to port to, and no reason yet to believe that Nintendo is taking a more proactive approach to courting them than "if you build it, they will come."

Finally, "sales enough to justify the port" is not actually that low a bar to clear, because you can't evaluate success strictly in terms of making a profit, as opposed to opportunity cost. Any NX port will involve resources that could otherwise be allocated to the PS4/XB1/PC versions, all of which will probably sell far better.

 

[Rodin]

Holy shit that special k box lol

He looks so sad

NX is bad confirmed

ARM is much more likely than x86 at this point, unfortunately.

Unfortunately? Lol

 

[Eradicate]

I've been looking for messages about the NX in my cereal for a week now and all I'm getting is "ooooooooo!"

(If I see Kimishima in my cereal bowl I'll be dead.)

He just swallowed a morphball.

That will do it! Morphball Soup.

I like to think this is served in Nintendo's cafeteria.

Maybe along with a Birdo omelette station and (since it's japan) some Octorok and Blooper calamari

They have to have a Nintendo-themed cafeteria! The Birdo omelettes are always fresh!

That was quick.

Hey...jeans don't lie!

 

[Mithos]

It may well get better AAA support in its first 6-12 months than Wii U did, before third parties start pulling support due to the early ports not selling. But that's as far as I'll go, and it's not exactly a high bar to clear.

Again, third parties are being very well served by Sony and MS right now. There's no reason to think they're desperate for new platforms to port to, and no reason yet to believe that Nintendo is taking a more proactive approach to courting them than "if you build it, they will come."

Finally, "sales enough to justify the port" is not actually that low a bar to clear, because you can't evaluate success strictly in terms of making a profit, as opposed to opportunity cost. Any NX port will involve resources that could otherwise be allocated to the PS4/XB1/PC versions, all of which will probably sell far better.

Thirdparty self-fulfilling prophecy to fail right there.

They have not released games on Nintendo platforms before, or if they did, subpar CRAP (to late, no dlc, more expensive etc etc), 1 or 2 games will not be enough for them to get gamers to buy into their stuff on Nintendo platforms in the 10 of millions, that will happen after many many years of their games always also coming to Nintendo platforms at same quality and support as other platforms.

 

[EhoaVash]

can't wait for tomorrow when we get NOTHING and so back to square 1

 

[LegendofLex]

Thirdparty self-fulfilling prophecy to fail right there.

They have not released games on Nintendo platforms before, or if they did, subpar CRAP (to late, no dlc, more expensive etc etc), 1 or 2 games will not be enough for them to get gamers to buy into their stuff on Nintendo platforms in the 10 of millions, that will happen after many many years of their games always also coming to Nintendo platforms at same quality and support as other platforms.

I guess the real question is why third-parties would be incentivized to add additional investments in Nintendo platforms when they're theoretically already peaking their franchises' performance just on Xbox/PlayStation/PC. It's not like Nintendo customers represent millions of people who actually increase the install base for their games, otherwise Nintendo customers would have bought the Wii U ports because that would have been the only way they could have played them.

If Nintendo customers are already customers for their games, they are customers for their games on other platforms. In which case investing in NX just splits the userbase and makes each individual SKU less profitable.

 

[FZZ]

Hey brehs just remember worse case scenario is Nintendo saying they will not announce any NX info at E3 and its not launching this year

Like it's still possible so don't get too hyped, this is still just a FY meeting

 

[StickSoldier]

I'm excited but I'm not expecting just a ton of news. Hopefully we get something at least. Just whisper the name at least!

 

[Starchasing]

Hey brehs just remember worse case scenario is Nintendo saying they will not announce any NX info at E3 and its not launching this year

Like it's still possible so don't get too hyped, this is still just a FY meeting

we are getting nothing

that or a miitomo update

 

[Mithos]

I guess the real question is why third-parties would be incentivized to add additional investments in Nintendo platforms when they're theoretically already peaking their franchises' performance just on Xbox/PlayStation/PC.It's not like Nintendo customers represent millions of people who actually increase the install base for their games, otherwise Nintendo customers would have bought the Wii U ports because that would have been the only way they could have played them.

Another flawed viewpoint ala thirdparty thinking (bold). You see the CRAP sub-par thing I mentioned, that was 90% of the Wii U ports that came, and even when it wasn't sub-par it was months and months later and more expensive.

 

[LegendofLex]

Another flawed viewpoint ala thirdparty thinking (bold). You see the CRAP sub-par thing I mentioned, that was 90% of the Wii U ports that came, and even when it wasn't sub-par it was months and months later and more expensive.

Yes, but speaking for myself, I never owned an Xbox 360 or PS3 when I got my Wii U, so for me those games couldn't have been "late" since that was the first point at which I would've been able to play them anyway, and I couldn't have known they were "crap" because I had nothing to compare them to.

Not to mention that there's a healthy market for remasters on PS4 and Xbox anyway.

 

[udivision]

If Nintendo customers are already customers for their games, they are customers for their games on other platforms. In which case investing in NX just splits the userbase and makes each individual SKU less profitable.

That's a good point...
If Nintendo's success means getting people who were going to by PS4's/Xbox One's buy the NX this year instead, than that doesn't really mean much for 3rd parties. There aren't any "new" customers in that scenario.

If Nintendo's success means "expanding the pie" and bringing in people who weren't going to buy any console to begin with, then that represents a new market for third-parties to benefit from, in addition to their already established markets.

Not like it has to be one or the other... and even in the last 2 gens from Nintendo we've seen what happens when they go to both extremes.