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May 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 7th

RexNovis

Banned
So, persona 5 just had its preorders open, so they've just started accruing. It's not really a fair comparison, when we've been accepting then for xv since the 2013 reveal. However, ps4 sku seems healthy, it's not going to be the same mainstream volume (persona is not final fantasy) but it could do really well, and I hope it does. It looks awesome.

As to the uncharted bundle, our stock of them mostly sold, but there's still some available in each store. We had more than just a few per store, quite a few actually, more than enough to cover any preorders and then some. My store has two left.

Thanks Abdiel. So in your experience were those limited bundles additive to the sort of traffic you would normally see for the month or was it more that people who otherwise bought a PS4 opted for the limited edition SKU? Mainly did you see the UC4 SKU having a noticeable/meaningful impact on the sales for the month of May?
 
So, persona 5 just had its preorders open, so they've just started accruing. It's not really a fair comparison, when we've been accepting then for xv since the 2013 reveal. However, ps4 sku seems healthy, it's not going to be the same mainstream volume (persona is not final fantasy) but it could do really well, and I hope it does. It looks awesome.

As to the uncharted bundle, our stock of them mostly sold, but there's still some available in each store. We had more than just a few per store, quite a few actually, more than enough to cover any preorders and then some. My store has two left.

Seems UC is a bigger hardware mover then some say.
 
As to the uncharted bundle, our stock of them mostly sold, but there's still some available in each store. We had more than just a few per store, quite a few actually, more than enough to cover any preorders and then some. My store has two left.

So, may I ask, based on your own assessment, does Uncharted 4 qualify as a "system seller"?
 

donny2112

Member
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - May-2016

1. PS4 - 213K
2. XB1 - 139K
3. 3DS - 72K
4. WIU - 29K

Of note is that the maximum prediction from anyone for Wii U was 40K. The most optimistic person here thinks Wii U sold 10K per week in the U.S. Yeah. :lol
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - May-2016

1. PS4 - 213K
2. XB1 - 139K
3. 3DS - 72K
4. WIU - 29K

Of note is that the maximum prediction from anyone for Wii U was 40K. The most optimistic person here thinks Wii U sold 10K per week in the U.S. Yeah. :lol

And that's still a WTF prediction. Why should Wii U be up MOM in a worse month, and with nothing?

Also intereting how the avg. show XBO the same as last year. :D
 

Welfare

Member
200k plus for PS4 in May would be a really good result. Wonder how well GAF did on that one.

And donny, was I the lowest Wii U predictor?
 

cilonen

Member
Damn, all the genres I love seem to be dying :(

Thanks though

ps3ud0 8)

I know how you feel. I've been reduced to playing The Crew and whilst I devoured it and played it solidly for a month, it's clearly flawed. The arcade open world racer I really want is not going to happen as it won't sell and I'm sad.

Hell, the Gran Turismo game I want isn't happening because Yamauchi sees he way forward in GT Sport and not car collecting like the previous entries in the series. Even then, I doubt GT Sport will do gangbusters like the old GT games.

The single player games I like are getting dusted, I just hope Deus Ex does super well to keep experiences like that alive.
 
Wow that PS4 number seems aggressive. Hope it's hit and exceeded, would imply great software sales for a May.

EDIT: reduced to playing The Crew? The Crew is great. I could only dream of being "reduced" to play good games like that.
 

Abdiel

Member
Thanks Abdiel. So in your experience were those limited bundles additive to the sort of traffic you would normally see for the month or was it more that people who otherwise bought a PS4 opted for the limited edition SKU? Mainly did you see the UC4 SKU having a noticeable/meaningful impact on the sales for the month of May?

Seems UC is a bigger hardware mover then some say.

So, may I ask, based on your own assessment, does Uncharted 4 qualify as a "system seller"?

To all three:

The thing is, the hardware itself presented as preordered hardware with an established franchise, as a collectors item, special edition, that included the game as it is. It sold on top of usual purchasers, and there were also a few folks who traded in standard editions towards their new models as well.

The cod bundle continued to sell as always, but the u4 did well for itself. Would have done even better if it were the same price, but eh, it was a special item. It's limited.
 

allan-bh

Member
Wow that PS4 number seems aggressive. Hope it's hit and exceeded, would imply great software sales for a May.

Funny how the market changed. 213k in may for the market leader w/ a big game launched is "agressive".

Sales are much more concentrated on holidays these days...
 

donny2112

Member
When exactly has the market leader sold more than that in May?

PS2
May-2001
May-2002
May-2003
May-2004
May-2005
May-2006

Wii
May-2007
May-2008
May-2009
May-2010
May-2011

360
May-2006
May-2011

Nothing since 2011. When allan-bh is talking about the consolidation of sales to the holidays at the expense of the rest of the year, this is what he's referring to.
 

donny2112

Member
2 of the greatest selling systems of all-time...so sounds pretty normal then.

The market leaders. Annual distribution of sales in the market has clearly changed.

360 only did it twice and that sold what 50 mill lifetime in the US?

360 sold forever, so it's LTD number needs to be taken in context of its much longer life. Found it interesting that it did it in 2006 (right after launch) and not again until 5 years later in 2011 (Kinect resurgence). System really was a 2-humped seller.
 
The market leaders. Annual distribution of sales in the market has clearly changed.



360 sold forever, so it's LTD number needs to be taken in context of its much longer life. Found it interesting that it did it in 2006 (right after launch) and not again until 5 years later in 2011 (Kinect resurgence). System really was a 2-humped seller.

True but does it matter if the distribution has changed at the end of the day?
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
PS2
May-2001
May-2002
May-2003
May-2004
May-2005
May-2006

Wii
May-2007
May-2008
May-2009
May-2010
May-2011

360
May-2006
May-2011

Nothing since 2011. When allan-bh is talking about the consolidation of sales to the holidays at the expense of the rest of the year, this is what he's referring to.

Handhelds including:

GBA

May-2002
May-2003
May-2004
May-2005

DS

May-2007
May-2008
May-2009
May-2010
May-2011


...Yeah, even including handhelds 2011 was the last year with a console at >200K in May.

COINCIDENCE!? :0

2 of the greatest selling systems of all-time...so sounds pretty normal then. 360 only did it twice and that sold what 50 mill lifetime in the US?

360 sold under 45 million. ( probabily even under 44 million)
 
So the PS4 is pretty much guaranteed to win. Uncharted 4 will dominate. The only question is: will we get a Cream sighting?
 
Software is defo more interesting this month. Is Uncharted bigger than Halo. How will Doom and Overwatch fare in comparison. Where will Battleborn (un)chart. Does QB have any legs and did Ratchet fall off or stay strong. Find out next time...
 
As we are dying from boredom I propose a collective bet:
Those who have a lower prediction result ranking than Edson Farley should wear a Bubsy avatar until next NPD.
 
Nintendo is taking a sabbatical until further notice, hope they come back fully recovered and ready to show who's boss.

There's that single Zelda thread about E3 and that's pretty much it. Everone's talking about MS new hardware and an IP which for some reason no one talked about in ages and suddenly is the next big thing.
 

Moskalova

Member
MS PR

CkiivkIUoAASOS7.jpg
 
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