Uno Venova
Banned
Someone still hasn't confirmed what the leaderboard looks like in the demo?
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Xbox One wins 3 consecutive months in NPD for the first time, #1 UK, up YoY
- Thread starter Obliterator
- Start date
Statistically speaking, 600,000 sales is the absolute minimum that can be proven, she says, because some may be playing cross play. But that is only assuming that every single person played cross play. Obviously that isn't likely, and I would have thought that only 10%-20% tops make use of the feature. So in reality it is probably about 1 million sales.
That's assuming the cross players used different gamer tags. There's 1.2 million gamer tags registered on that leader board which surely must be about 1 million sales when you remove borrowing/preowned/multi accounts on one console.
Given that the US is the main base for the console, that the game had 150k sales (physical) over its launch week (which includes pre orders) in the US... Unless the game had an amazing amount of digital sales and big Rotw sales, which in theory isn't impossible, 1m WW first month seems incredibly optimistic tbh.
I do agree that 600k seems to be the minimum though.
Same, same, and same. I would not have bought an XBO S if it didn't have the UHD player. I wanted to see UHD Blu-Ray on my TV now, not in a year. I also would not have bought an XBO S had the Pro come with a UHD player.
Isn't 22-23m kinda.. terrible?
Yes.
This absolutely isn't happening. People here are grossly overestimating the demand for physical UHD Blu-Ray discs.
There are less than 100 UHD Blu-Ray discs that you can buy right now. It's an absolutely niche medium.
SmartWaffles
Member
I mean come on use your common sense. Horizon 3 is barely out for 3 weeks, in no way used sales is significant, and in also no way game share takes up significant portions of the playerbase. Less than 1M sure, but saying 600k is pure madness.
It is also outpacing normal bluray in terms of title release count for the same duration since launch.
It is also outpacing normal bluray in terms of title release count for the same duration since launch.
Eh it just started... IIRC when Blu-ray started, it was also a slow start.
Diatribe1974
Member
Makes sense for them to be doing well right now. I've friends who only bought a PS4 because the hardware was better this gen, but they loved Live! far more than PSN. Now they've gotten themselves some Xbones and are popping back up online there on a regular basis versus when they were on their 360s.
Physical media sales were down 11% in 2014 and 12% in 2015. Digital media sales were up 18% last year, and more movies were sold digitally than physically. Streaming memberships are up substantially.
Do you really believe 4K UHD is going to reverse this trend?
SmartWaffles
Member
I'm talking strictly about releases. I never said anything about anything else.
150k in week one is 15% of 1million, then add digital sales, then week 2 (it's been out 2 weeks now right?), then the fact that the Rotw is actually the best market for racing games. Racing games sell much better in Europe than the US; Gran Turismo, Mario Kart and Need for Speed have all sold more in Europe than the US. So I wouldn't say it's *that* optimistic. There are 1.2million times on that leaderboard after all. It can't be a hell of a long way off that number really.
Would be quite easy to determine. Leaderboards are per specific items in game, most of those items are not in demo.
It is happening and it's called Spider-Man (exclusive to PS4 tho)
Welfare
Member
We could assume digital week one was ~30%, but racers do much better outside of the US, even if the Xbox One has most of its consoles sold in the US.
Just looking at the UK, the install base difference between it and the US is close to 5x less, yet week one estimates for Horizon 3 are between 57,700 and 78,800. The difference proportionately is less than 3x and less than 2x compared to the US. Also note that this is 3 weeks worth of sales that leaderboard would represent. We know in the UK that week 2 sales fell 71%, so the total in the UK as of 2 weeks ago was between 74,400 and 101,700. Assuming the US had a similar week 2 drop, US + UK totals anywhere between ~270k and ~300k without factoring in week 3 or digital.
ROTW will also be picking up a big portion of sales. 600k is the absolute minimum.
Well it is still outpacing the Xbox 360, and I'm actually going to update my estimate to ~23m since we now have updated numbers. The PS4 is just doing so much more, like ~20m more.
360 hit 30 million after 3.5 years
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360_sales
And those were official numbers, not the estimates that people come up with because MS refuse to give an actual number.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360_sales
And those were official numbers, not the estimates that people come up with because MS refuse to give an actual number.
Meh, I may check it out, but I need Sunset Overdrive 2
CosmicQueso
Member
Connected console rates are over 90% now, so it wouldn't be a very meaningful amount.
Unless you were doing a /s post.
Steelyuhas
Member
Cross buy and therefore cross play is tied to the same account, so players wouldn't be counted twice if they played it on Xbox and PC.
Obviously, with leaderboards you have cases where more than one gamertag plays the game on an Xbox.
Bitch Pudding
Member
I was taking the piss.
Ah, of course. But how prevalent is that, really? I can't imagine more than 25% of consoles have more than one local player.
I'm sure we'll get official sales numbers at some point but I'd be stunned if this didn't pass 1 million by this time next month.
Frankly, even looking at your own numbers (literally 450k US/UK at week 2 including 50% digital), you should know that 1m sales @ 1month looks like a borderline pipe dream, and that's what Driveclub did. It's not (very) good.
Not for any AAA multi installment franchise particularly and yes, if GTS was doing anything close to that it would be a disaster and there would be calls for heads to roll and a reboot/ shelving of the franchise.
We're not there for Forza though, it was never as popular as GT ever was.
But is a yearly installment warranted or even beneficial (and profitable)? I seriously doubt it myself.
Of course it is not meaningful. Just like the talk about used sales and play anywhere to infer less sales.
CosmicQueso
Member
Disagree on play anywhere.
We are specifically talking about less packaged sales.
But when a cross-buy type benefit is gained when buying digitally it does make that digital offering more appealing than it would normally be. This would result in an assumed higher digital share of some unknown amount.
.. I don't get it, are you suggesting XB1's sales are higher then that ?
DriftingSpirit
Member
I think so. They probably reuse a lot of assets and they always come out toward the fall/holiday season. Nothing to throw a parade about but I think there is enough there to keep it all going. I also think MS would have nipped it in the bud a while ago if it wasn't positive in some shape or form in that regard.
Welfare
Member
I'm not arguing it is at 1 million yet. It'll probably hit that at the end of the month, but looking at the week one sales at US retailk is not going to have the full picture for almost a month of world wide sales.
Xbox One (including Xbox One S) has sold how many now, in nearly 3 years ?
DriftingSpirit
Member
Got to be ~25M by now. Give or take a mil or two.
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
Wasn't Blu-ray a niche medium too? Until it wasn't? I mean, aren't all new formats technically niche until they start to sell more?
DriftingSpirit
Member
Just like the Wii U and Vita.
ethomaz
Banned
Robot Pants
Member
UHD Blu Ray was enough for me to jump on board. Sony, you dolts.
PS VR is niche, I wonder what they say about that.
Microsoft won't say.
That it's niche.
Brad Grenz
Member
You'd think so. If I had an Xbox One I'd do it myself.
I really fucking hate these posts and posts like it. Your basically saying "fuck options, less options are good because no one wants a disc, see sales are down 13.678733%, and u only have 100 movies to chooses from whaaaaaa."
Newsflash, peeps absorb all types of media. Be it streaming, downloading, or buying a disc. I do all three, because I have that option. Options are good, and in the case of this thread... x1s is the only console that does all three.
That was not the reaction I expected.
it's an NPD thread breh
Because it's not needed?
StudioTan
Hold on, friend! I'd love to share with you some swell news about the Windows 8 Metro UI! Wait, where are you going?
It's declining, but it's hardly dead. Even still niche formats can last for years, like laserdisc. All the major movies had laserdisc releases and they had special features when it was never a thing on VHS.
I prefer digital for most stuff but you can't match the quality of UHD discs in any streaming format so I buy them because it's the best quality you can get. Also the fact that most of the UHD movies are not available in 4K HDR streaming outside of the US.
Aside from that, streaming isn't a selling point of consoles as pretty much every 4k TV has stuff like Netflix built in, you don't need a console for that.
I think it is.
It's easy to measure and it would also be easy to get to something with leaderboards that is not in the demo. It doesn't need to be 1.2 million but anything above 700k would be telling us that 600k because of second hand sales and cross-buy was crap.
unapersson
Member
I should think more that 25% of console households have kids. I remember that Aqua was quite dismissive of the numbers on the Driveclub leaderboards, our house would have counted as three users for that one.