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November 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 6th

N

N.Domixis

Banned
Saitama said:
That is pretty weird considering Sony and Activison have deals this gen and I'm sure Activison would have loved to bundle Infinite Warfare with PS4s to get them more CoD sales...Very strange...
Click to expand...
Crash ain't cheap, maybe they sacrificed the bundle for times crash exclusivity
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Sony is just waiting for MWR to be released as a standalone so they can bundle that. Has more selling power than IW.
 
B

BaasRed

Banned
Elandyll said:
So far, afaik, we have 4 info sources for November and BF.

* Adobe Data (online only): XB1 took BF online, but PS4 took the whole of November (PS4 also won Cyber Monday online, but that's for Dec NPD)
* Infoscout reports PS4 winning BF at retail while XB1 won BF online (BF being largely a retail thing, unlike Cyber Monday)
* Amazon (about 8% of gaming market? Maybe 10?) has the PS4S winning the month by a (seemingly) large margin as far as they are concerned (can't extrapolate much in periods of big retail deals)
* Sony now announces that the Black Friday week period (unknown if only US or WW) was its largest -ever- for Playstation, including last year when it did 1.5m+ units in US in November with a large BF week.

More anecdotally, but also significant, Abdiel reported for his district (Best Buy) a PS4 win on BF.

That's what we know.
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I see, things are looking far better than I thought for Sony. Maybe they can even break last year's sales? I'm excited for the results!
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
Whoa.



Just looking back at the comp month, just how spectacular Nov was last year, and then at this year's SW slate and deals, the math just doesn't get me to anything better than declines of at least 25%, maybe more.

Gaming's not dead, certainly. Oh well, maybe I'm wrong.



Pretty much.
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The day Sony says they had their best BF week ever for PS?

Let's say they are talking WW and you are specifically talking US (NPD thread after all), I'm not even sure how that would not also be the case or close for the US by extension, and then (BF week being by en large about the cheap PS4S) you have to add the Pro effect with 3 months of pre orders.

...
I don't see it, unless you mean about the market overall and expecting a complete collapse of XB1? (WiiU not having that much room for collapse - not a dig).

Hope!!! ;)
 
demigod

demigod

Member
Can't wait for results tomorrow, return of the MAUs? Or will it be Xbox One Family are the best 1080p consoles for the month of November?
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
Elandyll said:
The day Sony says they had their best BF week ever for PS?

Let's say they are talking WW and you are specifically talking US (NPD thread after all), I'm not even sure how that would not also be the case or close for the US by extension, and then (BF week being by en large about the cheap PS4S) you have to add the Pro effect with 3 months of pre orders.

...
I don't see it, unless you mean about the market overall and expecting a complete collapse of XB1? (WiiU not having that much room for collapse - not a dig).

Hope!!! ;)
Click to expand...
you can take uk as an example. ps4 was up just below 3% on black friday and they had insane bundles and pricecuts. way better offering than the us.

the console was down to £179 and the bundle games were CoD, Watchdogs, Uncharted, 3 first pary games, lego star wars, GTAV, and retailer Fifa Bundles. both in 500bg and 1tb version

the us had one single bundle for $249
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Thought this would be relevant.

CzF6PkvXAAAo1Co.jpg
 
E

Elios83

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Oh sorry, units. Hadn't considered spend.
Click to expand...

I think you're being a bit pessimistic (unless you know something so it's an other matter), it's very possible that they're both down but XB1 below 1m like you're suggesting....that would be incredibly disappointing and PS4 should have the help of the Pro launch to stay close to flat yoy.
Also PS4 had growth in UK, Japan and worldwide as far as know atm. Why US should be alone against the trend and go for a marked yoy sales decline instead?
I guess that even without precise numbers tomorrow we'll find out winner and who is up or down so it will still be an interesting discussion.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
Kyrios said:
So what is everyone's prediction on #1 game for the month up to Black Friday? Pokemon or Call of Duty?
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Call of Duty #1 on the npd chart, because the chart is based on revenue and includes digital. also pokemon will be tracked on a sku base.

physical units sold, pokemon could be ahead
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Thought I'd pop in, see if there were any questions I may be able to answer (knowing there are many I probably won't be able to answer).

I see the Shopping Bag chart got posted. Cool.

I bought a Vita today. I have no idea why. Guess that's a +1 for December.

What else is going on?

NeoMetallix said:
Hardware! Are any of them up year over year?
Click to expand...

Good to get this one of the way. I cannot divulge any particulars until the public release which comes out the 15th. I'm sorry.

I'll give you one though... the NES Classic sold more units in Nov 2016 than it did a year ago.

NeoMetallix said:
So NPD actually control the market? Secret society confirmed.
Click to expand...

I'm told vita means life.

Vena said:
Vita is up, he bought one.
Click to expand...

Gauging by the thread I've read so far, I believe this takes Vita jokes up by an infinite %.
 
Unknown?

Unknown?

Member
MatPiscatella said:
Thought I'd pop in, see if there were any questions I may be able to answer (knowing there are many I probably won't be able to answer).

I see the Shopping Bag chart got posted. Cool.

I bought a Vita today. I have no idea why. Guess that's a +1 for December.

What else is going on?
Click to expand...
Hardware! Are any of them up year over year?
 
K

Kyrios

Member
hanspampel said:
Call of Duty #1 on the npd chart, because the chart is based on revenue and includes digital. also pokemon will be tracked on a sku base.

physical units sold, pokemon could be ahead
Click to expand...

That's what I figured, I could honestly see Pokemon edging out CoD in physical units though.
 
K

Kyrios

Member
Kill3r7 said:
How many units do you think Pokémon sold?
Click to expand...

No idea, I'm just saying I wouldn't be surprised if it goes either way. Of course even if you take digital copies of CoD into account, with how well the CoD franchise sells, it most likely did sell more physically.

I was just thinking of the $99 3DS Black Friday deal might add more Pokemon Sun/Moon sales, but then again it's just one day.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
MatPiscatella said:
Thought I'd pop in, see if there were any questions I may be able to answer (knowing there are many I probably won't be able to answer).

I see the Shopping Bag chart got posted. Cool.

I bought a Vita today. I have no idea why. Guess that's a +1 for December.
Click to expand...

Vita is a godsend for PS1 Classics and JRPGs so if you dig those you'll probably love it to death. Did you get a new LCD model to the old school OLED? I'm partial to the OLED screen myself.
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
Kyrios said:
No idea, I'm just saying I wouldn't be surprised if it goes either way. Of course even if you take digital copies of CoD into account, with how well the CoD franchise sells, it most likely did sell more physically.

I was just thinking of the $99 3DS Black Friday deal might add more Pokemon Sun/Moon sales, but then again it's just one day.
Click to expand...

I asked because I wanted to gauge how far you thought COD would have to drop in order for Pokémon to overtake it. I am not saying that it could not happen but we would be talking about a massive COD decline in order for this to come true. Like FFXV in Japan kind of drop.
 
K

Kyrios

Member
Kill3r7 said:
I asked because I wanted to gauge how far you thought COD would have to drop in order for Pokémon to overtake it. I am not saying that it could not happen but we would be talking about a massive COD decline in order for this to come true. Like FFXV in Japan kind of drop.
Click to expand...

I think what got me considering it was reports that CoD didn't sell as well as Black Ops III (I think 50% less or so?), but like I said in my previous post that's probably still a huge number lol

Also the reports of Pokemon Sun/Moon being the biggest and fastest Nintendo title ever in the Americas with 3.7 million copies sold in two weeks.

But it could be as simple as the numbers just always being insanely high for CoD even if there was a 50% drop. Hell CoD probably did 3.7 million in less than a week lol
 
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