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[Japan] As Switch comes after PS4, Sony should be worried
- Thread starter Tadaima
- Start date
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
You sound exactly like the people saying Wii U would dominate Japan because of MH and Dragon Quest. Not to mention, I never understand why people keep harping on about "it's a successor to 3DS, not Wii U" when you could just as easily make the argument it's a console instead of a handheld and Nintendo has said clearly said it's a successor to neither 3DS or Wii U. Look at the size of the thing and the inevitable flaky battery life. Y'all calling that a true 3DS successor? Stop it, you're killing me.
Shouting that Switch is a 3DS successor in hopes that will somehow make it a success is futile. The market will decide what happens but people are kidding themselves if they think there won't be a decline from 3DS. In a year that 3DS had Monster Hunter, Pokemon, Animal Crossing and god knows what else, 3DS hardware was still down YoY in Japan. When will this idea that Nintendo doesn't face steep decline in their home territory on the handheld front, albeit at a slower rate compared to consoles.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
They didn't they didn't sell your usual core games on it (those that only sold those core games and were playstation only just didn't bother).. The wii had had attach ratio of 8 and sold a ridiculous amount of software.
broncobuster
Banned
I truly want it to do well in Japan, but I see parallels to pre-Vita/NGP attitudes in the OP and other optimistic posts.
Also interested to see how they show it to the Japan market. The reveal was very western focused.
Also interested to see how they show it to the Japan market. The reveal was very western focused.
StereoVsn
Member
Let's be frank, Sony does not depend on Japanese PS4 sales. Its still a decent market but it's probably what, similar to UK or Germany in size? Sony is all about the rest of the world for the PS4. Heck, Japan didn't get initial PS4 roll-out till months after West.
So, no, I don't think Sony is threatened by Switch. Hell, if Nintendo manages to hit the market well, Sony could release a competitor.
So, no, I don't think Sony is threatened by Switch. Hell, if Nintendo manages to hit the market well, Sony could release a competitor.
So what I've gathered from this thread is that the Switch has all of the perceived positives of being a handheld (namely the successor to the 3DS, naturally guaranteeing a boatload of sales) with none of the downsides of being a new entry into the 2017 mobile-racked handheld market, and certainly none of the baggage associated with being the Wii U's successor.
And the third parties who supported the 3DS due to its large install base will be happy to (exclusively) start from scratch with the Switch because... reasons.
And the small niche Vita titles the likes of which have historically performed poorly on Nintendo handhelds despite the install base advantage will make their way on over too, because, well, it just makes sense.
And the third parties who supported the 3DS due to its large install base will be happy to (exclusively) start from scratch with the Switch because... reasons.
And the small niche Vita titles the likes of which have historically performed poorly on Nintendo handhelds despite the install base advantage will make their way on over too, because, well, it just makes sense.
Some Nobody
Junior Member
Wow. I just got it, lol.
Spiritwalker
Member
Yep, Sony is done. Finishing at 50 million isn't too bad tho.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
This is a dumb question, but how important is the Japanese game consumer to Sony? They're ceding the handheld market to Nintendo, the console market is dead there, and mobile is a bigger threat to them there than Nintendo ever was.
I guess that question was rhetorical. I just don't see the premise of this article bring particularly salient. I guess that there is also an argument that it would lure Japanese devs away, but I doubt that. At most, there would just be more PS4/Switch multipliers.
I guess that question was rhetorical. I just don't see the premise of this article bring particularly salient. I guess that there is also an argument that it would lure Japanese devs away, but I doubt that. At most, there would just be more PS4/Switch multipliers.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
To split by region, latest shipment numbers for WiiU+3DS
JP: 25.35m
NA: 27.02m
EU: 22.22m
It's quite possible those all release within 2017.ArkhamFantasy said:
I wondered the same, but I think it's a bit of a stretch. By the end of its first calendar year, 3DS was around 4.5m. PS4 is already at about 3.8m. So it would pretty much take Switch to have the all-time best first year and for PS4 to have an especially shitty next 13 months.Duxxy3 said:
JoshuaJSlone
Member
It's not like publishers played wait and see with 3DS. They supported it because it was the successor to an already successful machine, which is the norm unless there's some compelling reason to do otherwise, like with N64.
If you're going by the first Google result as I am, the first party accounts for a third of that which is quite skewed.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
JP to PS4 is around the same as UK/Germany so still one of the top markets. In terms of software its incredibly important to Sony hence you still see Sony push for it.
LOL what? Market will obviously decline further in Japan after Switch. Japan is going mobile even Nintendo is embracing this.
Japan may not be the juggernaut it once was, but it's certainly still a market worth fighting for as long as Nintendo continues to exist. Even Apple recently reaffirmed this when they decided to create customized iPhones that support Japanese NFC standards.
Sony doesn't necessarily have to worry about anything. However, for Nintendo itself, the Switch doing well in Japan is an absolute must.
I find the size to be a non-factor. People in Japan carry bags with them everywhere (unlike many Americans) so if the games were enticing enough, they will buy it regardless. Moreover, the 3DS XL proved people will take a larger handheld when presented with the choice.
Sony doesn't necessarily have to worry about anything. However, for Nintendo itself, the Switch doing well in Japan is an absolute must.
I find the size to be a non-factor. People in Japan carry bags with them everywhere (unlike many Americans) so if the games were enticing enough, they will buy it regardless. Moreover, the 3DS XL proved people will take a larger handheld when presented with the choice.
calc84maniac
Member
Tablets are a joke.
Unless it's an iPad, you're right
Sanctuary
Member
Are you talking about console sales in Japan specifically, or in general? Because in general, even if they are on the decline, they aren't exactly hurting right now.
You can't rationally explain naive hope.
Imperfected
Member
When you talk about markets, your consideration is what it takes to sell a product there. The physical dimensions of the territory only matter in so far as the distribution chain needs to account for that.
California is bigger than Japan, but we don't talk about the "California" market in isolation because there's no extra work required to sell something in California as compared to selling it in the entirety of North America. Japan, on the other hand, is increasingly becoming a market that's not only economically and geographically isolated (by its own currency, import/export laws, etc.), but also culturally isolated (by its decision to basically snub everything popular worldwide).
At a certain point, you just no longer find that market worth it. If they're interested in what you're making for other markets, great, they can also buy it; if not, too bad, it's just not worth bending over backwards for them.
(That said, the EU comparison may be slightly unfair since you do generally need to translate into four languages for an EU release, even if you can otherwise reach the entire market in a relatively homogeneous fashion.)
PuppetMaster
Member
The only party that needs to be worried is Nintendo. They still have a very tough mt to climb.
Nintendo success is not a negative for Sony. It was not in any generation.
Nintendo success is not a negative for Sony. It was not in any generation.
I have thought this is a way to say it's the successor from both the 3DS and Wii U (and a certain way, the original DS and Wii), but it's still a new brand. Until January we will know the games in this system, but if the Dark Souls and Pokémon Stars rumors are legit, then it's clearly what kind of console will be.
kenji_sama
Member
Lol no, i think both PS4 and Switch benefits to each other. 10m-15m Switch in Japan seems to be a safe bet thanks to its hyprid feature.
Funny, that's not what Nintendo thinks.
Father_Brain
Banned
I think it's important not to be wildly optimistic about Switch's sales or to assume that all Japanese third parties will be fully on board, but you're *kind of* overlooking the reality that 3DS and Vita are both EOL and that Switch will be the only dedicated handheld on the market before too long.
Yep, Sony should be worried a console with hardware on the range of an Xbox One - PS4 is coming after their 50 million PS4 sold. Some people are so delusional I sometimes believe it's sarcasm.
This will tank harder than the Wii U. Nobody is getting a new console to play Skyrim and Dark Souls ports, just like nobody bought the Wii U to play Arkham City and Black Ops II ports, no matter what gimmick you come up with this time around.
Nobody is getting a new console to play multiplatform games in what will be the worst graphical/performance version, especially now that the PS4 Pro is out and Scorpio is coming soon. Who's left to buy this? Nintendo fans to play the exclusive Nintendo developed games. So just like the Wii U then. Nintendo's gimmick strategy is back again, they don't learn.
I'll glady eat crow if this thing is a not a failure. My prediction is bomb the size of Mars. Especially in the west.
This will tank harder than the Wii U. Nobody is getting a new console to play Skyrim and Dark Souls ports, just like nobody bought the Wii U to play Arkham City and Black Ops II ports, no matter what gimmick you come up with this time around.
Nobody is getting a new console to play multiplatform games in what will be the worst graphical/performance version, especially now that the PS4 Pro is out and Scorpio is coming soon. Who's left to buy this? Nintendo fans to play the exclusive Nintendo developed games. So just like the Wii U then. Nintendo's gimmick strategy is back again, they don't learn.
I'll glady eat crow if this thing is a not a failure. My prediction is bomb the size of Mars. Especially in the west.
Can you lend me your time machine?
Deserted Maniac Island
Member
OP's point is that PS4's sales in JAPAN are not really that great, so potentially the Switch can be successful because it a merger of portable and console. Seeing how great Splatoon did in Japan and Japanese third party support for the 3DS, I think the Switch has potential to be successful in Japan.
I personally think the idea of Dark Souls I can take anywhere, sounds really cool.
RocketRacoon
Member
They'll both have their areas to carve out, should be good for both teams. MS is still boned, with zero presence in JP and Sony still swinging for the fences in NA. Maybe EU?
It's going be fun to revisit this thread. I fear for the Switch optimists. Even if the idea makes sense the product they're putting forth makes no damn sense. It's a big clumsy handheld with poor battery time and It's a weak console. It'll bomb everywhere. Personally I'll probably love it though.
As others have said already multiple times, Japan is probably the smallest of Sony's concerns this generation and half the last one. Even if the Switch steals a percentage of the market away from the PS4 (I wonder how this can realistically happen anyways), Sony would not care because they'd still be leaders.
Playing Dark Souls anywhere is great, true. Luckily I can already play Dark Souls anywhere, I do that all the time with my 2011 laptop and my plug and play DS4 that is natively supported with Steam and prior to that, with DS4Win or just an Xbox controller. I can even customize it to get the performance and resolution I want, and not the one that is dictated by the closed hardware of a console.
It might be a selling point for you, but I doubt a significant amount of people who are interested in playing Dark Souls haven't done that a million times already. With the hardware specs this thing is rumored to have, playing DS3 on portable mode should be quite the experience anyways. Again, people are being delusional.
Colonel Mustard
Banned
You really only need two check boxes.
-Is the price reasonable?
-Does it have mainline Pokemon?
If both boxes are checked, the thing is a success at market.
Granted, this is the same forum that back in '06, when I was lurking, someone made a post about a Walmart (near me) that had 'stacks of Wiis they couldn't sell' near Christmas. I shot the guy a PM and pleaded with him to hold me one and that I would be at his Walmart in 15 minutes with the cash to buy it and $50 for his trouble...I got some weird, long-winded PM back stating, 'I don't really hate Nintendo, it's just..."
on one side we have people saying that the switch is not a portable device because of size and blah blah blah
on the other we have people that the portability is not a big selling point since they can take their laptop anywhere they want with a controller and play some of the games rumored to being ported to Switch..
i find that really funny
on the other we have people that the portability is not a big selling point since they can take their laptop anywhere they want with a controller and play some of the games rumored to being ported to Switch..
i find that really funny
jabberwocker
Banned
IdreamofHIME
Member
Or maybe it's time to just cut off Japan and treat them like the irrelevant territory they are in terms of sales?
Adults' gaming needs in Japan are already spoken for with smartphones. Don't forget Mario comes to iPhone in a week.
The Switch is too big (size-wise) to grab the elementary school kids' market that makes up so much of the 3DS' user base here.
Someone mentioned that 3DS will remain the "go-to" platform. Look for that to be the case until Nintendo realizes that while the Switch makes sense from a development/cost perspective, the consumer demand just won't be there, and ends up making a more portable version of the Switch with identical specs but no detachable controllers that becomes the 3DS' formal successor.
The Switch is too big (size-wise) to grab the elementary school kids' market that makes up so much of the 3DS' user base here.
Someone mentioned that 3DS will remain the "go-to" platform. Look for that to be the case until Nintendo realizes that while the Switch makes sense from a development/cost perspective, the consumer demand just won't be there, and ends up making a more portable version of the Switch with identical specs but no detachable controllers that becomes the 3DS' formal successor.
CrispyBoar
Banned
Edited.
Nintendo should be more worried about the mobile market than Sony should be of Nintendo. Especially if they eventually reveal a true mobile Switch, as the one prepping to launch in 2017 isn't being pushed as their new handheld. They really need to focus on building up a console base with their games and then piggy back off of those sales with the release of their mobile Switch console.
Sony and Nintendo, btw, should focus on other markets entirely if the home console market continues to shrink in Japan at the pace it has over the past five years.
Sony and Nintendo, btw, should focus on other markets entirely if the home console market continues to shrink in Japan at the pace it has over the past five years.
Sony is far from fine in Japan after the mobile market took over the industry. Although FFXV did sell pretty well it didn't sell to the expectations of the previous games. Nintendo is the one that is fine and its not concerned with their user base. We already know the Switch will do well given how the Switch was built.
This is exactly what I was thinking. If anything the Switch doing well is a boon for Sony. Japanese developers aren't just going to ignore 50 million PS4 owners because sales are a little slower in Japan.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Nintendo isn't fine either far from it. A sizeable drop Fri the 3RD is inevitable and a slow start means Japanese 3rd parties aren't going to care about the switch. Nintendo is arguably in a much more precautions position. The PS4 has Japanese support by default
Deserted Maniac Island
Member
I don't know if the Switch is going to be successful and I don't care, I just think the idea behind is cool and fresh in a way. The Switch is a cool idea, that has great potential for really fun games. A gaming laptop is expensive, not convenient and doesn't have *New* Nintendo games. It's appeal is the simplicity of playing games anywhere and having bit-sized games alongside bigger games like the new Zelda. I think a lot of people are looking forward for something a little different. The PS4 has great games but is kinda of bland, if Nintendo tried to makes a Nintendo box, people would saw "I'm already invested in the PS4, why do I need another system like this."
Just the thought of having all Nintendo Devs working on one systems, makes me want the Switch.
Poimandres
Member
Irrelevant territory? Please. Japan may not be a dominant force in the industry anymore but any country that can move ten's of millions of units of gaming hardware is far from "irrelevant".
The rise of mobile has bitten Nintendo as well. Of course they are concerned!
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