giancarlo123x
Banned
I think it will sell worse than Wii u.
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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
- Thread starter Gurish
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Same thought too. Once the 3DS titles dry out, price drop then a steady upward climb. But it's gong to be meh to the end of the year though.
SporeCrawler
Member
price will go down eventually so yes I think it will be a success mainly because I think its the 3ds successor
there is a very hardcore nintendo crowd that will gobble up the little units they have at launch. the real question is will it have mass market appeal at holiday 2017
Bony Manifesto
Member
Depends how you define success. It'll sell better than the Wii U no doubt, but considering this is Nintendo consolidating their handheld and home platforms, it should be really be selling more than the Wii U and 3DS combined to be considered a success. And I can't see a scenario where that happens.
Sidewinder
Member
How to define success?
- Better than WiiU? Hell yeah, portability and being the 3DS successor will guarantee it thanks to amount of quality software that'll start coming out for it 1 or 2 years from now.
- Better than 3DS? Probably not, too expensive for now and less portable...but if the price drops fast I expect it to do very well, but still under 3DS sales. Mobile gaming ate that lunch.
Gonna check out LTD data for both WiiU and 3DS and then I'll make a bold prediction which will probably amuse everybody in 5 years
Update:
Scenario No.1 - They won't significantly lower the price any time soon and won't release a docking-less cheap edition -> 35.8 Mio. sold WW
Scenario No.2 - They will either significantly lower the price (100$) in its first year, or bring out a cheaper docking-less edition -> 55.2 Mio. sold WW
- Better than WiiU? Hell yeah, portability and being the 3DS successor will guarantee it thanks to amount of quality software that'll start coming out for it 1 or 2 years from now.
- Better than 3DS? Probably not, too expensive for now and less portable...but if the price drops fast I expect it to do very well, but still under 3DS sales. Mobile gaming ate that lunch.
Gonna check out LTD data for both WiiU and 3DS and then I'll make a bold prediction which will probably amuse everybody in 5 years
Update:
Scenario No.1 - They won't significantly lower the price any time soon and won't release a docking-less cheap edition -> 35.8 Mio. sold WW
Scenario No.2 - They will either significantly lower the price (100$) in its first year, or bring out a cheaper docking-less edition -> 55.2 Mio. sold WW
SomethingInTheSea
Member
I think the decisions made at launch will prevent if from being a run away success, although its possible with a course correction after the first year they could achieve some modest success with it.
In my opinion a smaller, cheaper proper portable version is needed as soon as its possible to do so, even as early as this time next year. The Switch looks like it'll only really appeal to the wii u audience, which leaves most of the 3DS people with nowhere to go.
It'll be another case of them limping along slowly losing ever more market share (in this case combined 3DS + Wii U) as they go.
In my opinion a smaller, cheaper proper portable version is needed as soon as its possible to do so, even as early as this time next year. The Switch looks like it'll only really appeal to the wii u audience, which leaves most of the 3DS people with nowhere to go.
It'll be another case of them limping along slowly losing ever more market share (in this case combined 3DS + Wii U) as they go.
Bioshocker
Member
I think it could have a moderate success in Japan but right now, at that price and with no big exclusive third party title from a Western developer to speak of, it's very hard to see Switch succeed in the West.
I expected much more than this. Frankly, I'm a little bit at a loss of words. I think most of what we've heard these past 18 months has pointed to that Nintendo has really learnt a lot of the failure with the Wii U. What they showed tonight indicates that they haven't, and that surprises me.
I expected much more than this. Frankly, I'm a little bit at a loss of words. I think most of what we've heard these past 18 months has pointed to that Nintendo has really learnt a lot of the failure with the Wii U. What they showed tonight indicates that they haven't, and that surprises me.
Not a lot to go on right now, I feel.
My gut feeling is that this will do better than the initial reactions around here. A whole lot of this is going to come down to hardware marketing. I think there is a space to play into here, for what it's worth; I think they are correct to play much harder into the "tablet" angle rather than back off from it. I don't feel there was much of any chance of a dedicated home console doing well for them.
My gut feeling is that this will do better than the initial reactions around here. A whole lot of this is going to come down to hardware marketing. I think there is a space to play into here, for what it's worth; I think they are correct to play much harder into the "tablet" angle rather than back off from it. I don't feel there was much of any chance of a dedicated home console doing well for them.
Pureauthor
Member
Emotions will also play a part in whether or not it actually does succeed so it might not be that bad to see emotional reactions.
Price, lineup, online
thecouncil
Banned
Exactly. It will sell 0 units.
Inferno313
Banned
Honestly, I wonder how this thread would fare if there hadn't been all those last minute $250 rumors? I remember everyone predicting $300-$350 after the reveal trailer.
Feels like y'all just worked yourself into a shoot.
Feels like y'all just worked yourself into a shoot.
I have no fucking idea if I'm using that right
Laieon
Member
Probably not, but I'm getting one on day 1 regardless. I'll mainly be playing it as a portable system (do most of my gaming on PC) and 3 hours battery life is fine, I live in a tiny country and that's about enough time to get all the way from the north to the south.
I also apparently have a weird opinion in the sense that I think the Mario game looks great. I'm not a Mario fan at all and haven't really enjoyed a traditional Mario game since 64, but this looks sweet.
That being said, I do have quite a few friends that haven't owned a nintendo system (handhelds included) since before the Wii who are heavily considering picking it up.
I also apparently have a weird opinion in the sense that I think the Mario game looks great. I'm not a Mario fan at all and haven't really enjoyed a traditional Mario game since 64, but this looks sweet.
That being said, I do have quite a few friends that haven't owned a nintendo system (handhelds included) since before the Wii who are heavily considering picking it up.
Movalpolos
Banned
This.
Stairouais
Member
InquisitorAles
Member
I'll be surprised if we'll see more than 10 millions LTD sales without price cut. Terrible messaging and weak lineup with payed online doesn't look good at all.
Immaculate
Banned
No
They learned nothing from the Wii U
They learned nothing from the Wii U
Hentailover
Member
No... and I kinda don't want it to. The more I read about it, The more I feel like it's a bad deal for consumers.
Crazy Diamond
Member
Yes. It will have Pokémon. It will be okay. A rocky start is easy to forget if those games start coming. Just like 3DS.
I don't think it'll be a runaway success, but it'll probably do alright.
At this point everyone charges for online and a barren launch schedule is the norm with more than just Nintendo, so neither point seems like it'll harm the system in a major capacity.
As long as they can get the games out that justify the system, it should be successful but probably not dominant.
At this point everyone charges for online and a barren launch schedule is the norm with more than just Nintendo, so neither point seems like it'll harm the system in a major capacity.
As long as they can get the games out that justify the system, it should be successful but probably not dominant.
I'v feared the very same issues they unveiled today for months.
the only emotion I feel is a sort of sadnass in having been right since the beginning
I've fight againts many GAF users in the past months/weeks, tryingto analize and share in a constructive way my concerns in order to explain myself to GAF without being attakced.
So, I've maybe even more over analyzed the many issues concerning the Switch, and I don't think that there are many emotion blinding my sight
It is a gimped overpriced home console, with no actual sign of advantages for the consumers from the hypotetical hybrid concept, so far withou any kind of sign to be able to increase the stream of games, neither from a first paty perspective nor from a thitrd party one, with the cassical Japanese portable franchises/brands from both first party and third parycompletely missing in action
so
which is the demographics the Switch is aiming at?
300+ more bucks
paid online service
few western third parties on board
few japanse third parties on board, nor from the portable side of things
weaker hw as home console
big size and price and low battery as portable console
I can't understand who should buy this piece of hw, honestly
we can assume...the hardest nintendo fans? ok, so we can assume less than 13 million pieces sold LTD
One of the problems with the Wii was that all of the bells and whistles Nintendo threw into the hardware. They had an attitude of "Well someone will think of something cool to do with this", but that never materialised to the point where the extra utility could justify the increased cost.
As cool as the Joy Cons are they represent exactly the same attitude that made the Wii U fail.
As cool as the Joy Cons are they represent exactly the same attitude that made the Wii U fail.
breakfuss
Member
Octavianus
Banned
Outside of neogaf, yes.
swearing-circle
Member
Unfortunately the price in the UK will hold it back from being a success imo.
I still think it will do better than Wii U. A lot of non-videogamers / Ultra casual people I know actually know about this thing and are interested. Not to say that anecdotal evidence means much but at least it's in a better mind space than when Wii U was coming out.
Wait and see I guess. It'll be sold in the marketing at the end of the day.
Wait and see I guess. It'll be sold in the marketing at the end of the day.
PhilipDoesMatter
Member
At that price (accessories are outrageous) and 32gb, no.
I would buy on launch. I have just reviewed my decision.
I would buy on launch. I have just reviewed my decision.
Hydrargyrus
Member
At that price and with this online conditions... it will flop.
Unfortunately i guess not, price, especially here in Europe, is too high, it is 329 which surpass the 299 illusion of being competitive price wise, another reason is the lack of third parties AAA games which would make the difference like COD, Assassins Creed, Battlefield and even a full version of FIFA(since Switch version is a custom one)...I still hope it'll manage to do better than WiiU and at least as good as 3DS(which is not a clear success but still a good result)
JimJamJones
Member
GAF seems like it's the worst of the worst reactions compared to everywhere else.
Some of the impressions I've seen on Twitter from people at the event are pretty damn positive.
Some of the impressions I've seen on Twitter from people at the event are pretty damn positive.
northead
Member
It will be better than the U, that's for sure, but at the same time saying very little.
The further we dive into the future, the more gaming becomes split between mobile/indie and AAA high-end. Nintendo going in between the two may look like a shortcut, but I fear it'll just end up being crushed. I truly hope not, but heh.
The further we dive into the future, the more gaming becomes split between mobile/indie and AAA high-end. Nintendo going in between the two may look like a shortcut, but I fear it'll just end up being crushed. I truly hope not, but heh.
Skeletos311
Junior Member
I'm buying it, but I don't think this version will do well at $300 with overpriced controllers. It seems to be mainly for the hardcore and early adopters. When they release a $150 handheld only version for the kids, then it'll take off.
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