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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?


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Like usual with Nintendo now, it depends on third party support. I always bought a Nintendo console at launch but after a month or 2 it usually collects dust as I mainly play on PS4/Xbox. So i'll wait this time around. I'm sure they'll be a pack-in with Zelda for $300, if not cheaper, sometime this year.
 
Can someone confirm if this is meant to replace 3DS? I cant believe this will kill off portable Nintendo devices. They sell extremely well, no? Why kill it for a hybrid?
 

PaNaMa

Banned
If it launches in Canada at $400, when people are still paying off their Christmas bills and already have PS4 or XB1...I can't see people making the switch (!).. Not at that price point.

$349 CDN i think is the absolute ceiling. I paid $349 for my wife's WiiU, and I think (in spite of everything) that was a more appropriate price.

Switch went from being on my radar, to a big no thanks in the span of an instant. It's Nintendo who has to convince its customers to come back. The onus is not on us to take a $400 leap of faith.
 

Maximus P

Member
I'm picking one up. But mostly because I travel a lot with my work and the mobile nature of the console appeals to me.

I'm not sure if it's going to be a success. I think it's all down to the games, if casual titles like the one two thingy, Arms and Mario kart end up being smash hits then I think the console will do very well indeed. Hopefully they keep the titles flowing and we have loads of indie developers on board that take advantage of the consoles unique features.
 

thefro

Member
It's almost like we are foolishly placing the fate of the console on a late night Japanese press conference.

The problem is it might already be too late for 3rd party support if this thing stalls out in April/May in sales.

You'd ideally like this thing to sell gangbusters in the first few months, causing other devs to hop on board with some more ports of stuff and lots of indie titles by Holiday 2017.
 
I like how you ignore all the points that have been discussed in this thread.....Yes what evidence do we have that games will be "Rolling Out' Compared to other Nintendo consoles? There was nothing in that event that shows that, third parties were nearly non-existent.,

I've mostly seen" lol no chance in hell." And it's what people have been saying since day one with the rumors. Focusing development on one system would lead to more first and second party titles than the Wii U or GameCube.

The problem is it might already be too late for 3rd party support if this thing stalls out in April/May in sales.

You'd ideally like this thing to sell gangbusters in the first few months, causing other devs to hop on board with some more ports of stuff and lots of indie titles by Holiday 2017.

I'll give you that. I think it's just going to depend on how aggressively they market this thing and press releases in the next couple of months that expand on the launch lineup.
 

fossi8

Member
It will work for Nintendo-fans, casual gamers which can afford gimmick stuff and kids.

A nope for some casual and hardcore gamers that already have PS4 or XBX1.

And that's it.
 

iMerc

Member
would be interesting to see the comments of this thread and compare it to the wii or DS reveal threads and see if there is a high correlation....

i remember all the hyperbole when the wii controller was first revealed, or the reception the DS got in the heels of the psp unveil.

GAF or any other gaming msg boards have an absolutely terrible track record when it comes to predicting not only nintendo system performance, but have a knack at being completely oblivious to non-hardcore tastes.

if so many 'internet msg board gamers' hate this thing, it may just be a pretty decent success, lol.

i personally hope it succeeds so there can continue to be 3 successful hardware manufacturers.
the types of games nintendo are known for & specialise in are solely underrepresented on the ps/xbox ecosystem & vice versa.
they all need to continue to co-exist and remain healthy.
 
Very limited launch units to where stores had to put how many they're getting in, overpriced accessories, worse performance than consoles at the same price point, paid online services, tiny number of launch titles...

Stillborn

can anybody tell me which console in recent memory had a really great launch? all consoles had really just ports from last gen with a few exclusives that were not that great
Can someone confirm if this is meant to replace 3DS? I cant believe this will kill off portable Nintendo devices. They sell extremely well, no? Why kill it for a hybrid?

because nintendo is struggling to support two devices at once. and yes they sell extremely well which is why i think the switch will be doing just fine
 

Nesther

Member
What is Nintendo even going to do if this one (deservingly so) bombs?

I don't see how this is supposed to bomb once Pokemon, Animal Crossing and MonHun hit the system. Remember that all the past handheld exclusive games are going to be moving over to the Switch, that's a pretty big thing.
 

Bowl0l

Member
Also presumably this will actually drop in price unlike the Wii U.
NoA already revealed the price of the accessories and it's not that great. Probably Nvidia didn't give them a good price for the SoC so they have to nickel and dime the accessories.
 

border

Member
At this point I think the only interesting debate is whether or not Switch will sell more than the WiiU.

Crazy to think that Nintendo is killing their relatively good handheld market so they can gamble on this thing. Yeah, cell phones and tablets would have eaten their lunch eventually but this is like committing suicide the moment the doctor tells you you have cancer.
 

lachesis

Member
I don't really get why people are saying price is too high for a launch console.
Yes 299 isn't exactly cheap, but Nintendo is selling 3ds xl for 200 bucks.

Of course other home consoles have similar price (and more powerful performance to boot at base level, most likely) - but Switch also has capabilities that none of the others have - true portability.

Pro controller and all the accessories seem way too expensive, but heck, it's accessories, not a must-have. (crossing my fingers on ergonomics..) - but having so, 299 price isn't that bad IMO.
 

Klart

Member
I'll say that as disastrous as this may be (I don't think it'll be particularly worse than Wii U, but then again I'm not expecting much better) Nintendo still has the money to weather this out. It's not like this is an existential mistake at this point.

Yeah, but this time it's both their handheld & their console at stake. When the WiiU flopped, they still had 3DS doing ok. Now it's all their eggs in one basket.
 

YoodlePro

Member
Not sure how successful it will be, but I'm there day fucking 1.

It is what I wanted the Vita to be and the Vita is my favourite console soooo....
 
I expect it to be sold out at launch due to the momentum Nintendo have with Mario Run and NES mini. They would need a good showing at E3 o the sells will dry up quickly.
 

Yaari

Member
I really think online will be awful for this thing. The subscription barrier is just going to be too much for people and divide the player base even more. And its going to have to sell a fair bit to even have a healthy one in the first place.

I'm sure Mario Kart and such will be fine but eh..
 

Amneisac

Member
I don't understand the pessimism. I'm definitely not quite as "plugged into the industry" as a lot of you all, but to me, it seems like it could succeed.

Everyone I know with kids has bought them some kind of tablet device to play games on. I could see this appealing to parents who remember Nintendo from their own childhood, and now they have kids who want to game on a tablet.

I think with more "Western" advertising that features the "Wii Sports" aspects of the Switch would go a long way to increasing demand.

I'm not sure what price people expected, there was no way it was ever going to be cheaper than $249, so only being $50 more than that doesn't seem like a dealbreaker. I realize it's not a great price for a hardcore gamer who can only afford one system, but I think Nintendo is looking beyond only that market to try to get more people on board like they did with the Wii.

I think the name is a great idea, because will realize it's something new and different. Wii U lacked marketing and the name was a mistake because the average consumer had no idea if it was different from the Wii that had been sitting in their closet for 3 years collecting dust.

If Nintendo markets this thing properly in the West I see no reason why it can't be successful.

That being said, no pack-in game is a huge mistake and the peripherals are too expensive. I think the pack-in game is going to hurt sales far more than the expensive peripherals.
 

Ryan_MSF

Member
raw


no
 

shark sandwich

tenuously links anime, pedophile and incels
Where are the Wii U ports that would have been perfect for the launch period until the big new games like Mario Odyssey start hitting? Let´s face it, the console flopped so bad it would be no problem to relaunch most of its late lineup. All missing: Xenoblade Chronicles, Mario Maker, Smash Bros, Pokken Tournament, Super Mario 3D World, Paper Mario, Yoshi´s Woolly World, Donkey Kong Country and the list goes on...
This is the most puzzling thing. Iwata claimed that NX would "absorb the Wii U architecture." I took this to mean that Switch would extend the APIs/development tools that Nintendo developed for Wii U. Which should mean very easy porting of games from Wii U -> Switch.

It makes so much sense. Wii U has a bunch of top-quality Nintendo exclusives that so many people missed out on. What better way to fill out Switch's launch window?
 

Hex

Banned
Jesus Christ is GAF that pessimistic? I'm going to say yes it will do well. It seems like they have their marketing back again because the Switch logo and animation is pretty neat, the concept itself is easy to explain, and even if the launch lineup could be better games are going to start rolling out for this thing compared to previous Nintendo consoles.

And $300 is too much? Really?

Well I am glad that they put more effort into marketing it seems than the system itself.
Would you possibly have the receipts for that "games are going to start rolling out" bit?
I did not see and indication of Nintendo studios bulking up on manpower.
Your token third party sacrifices already lay upon the alter (when eventually released) and the rest will be up to performance
 

Duxxy3

Member
Can someone confirm if this is meant to replace 3DS? I cant believe this will kill off portable Nintendo devices. They sell extremely well, no? Why kill it for a hybrid?

I've never subscribed to the idea that it's a 3DS replacement. Even more so after last night.

It's far too expensive to replace the 3DS.
 

Kintaco

Member
Hard to say. The price of entry is pretty high, console, extra controllers, microSD card, and games, All that adds up fast. I can see an ambassador's program 2.0 coming. Launch lineup is lacking as well. Still a lot of unknown info though so who knows. Nintendo needs to clarify a lot of vague information, such as the free NES/SNES game, is it a rental or not? Either way one free 30-20 year old game compared to 4 from Xbox live? Hmmm.
 
People who think it will do worse than the Wii U are delusional. It's basically the successor to the Wii U, 3DS *and* Vita, so it's pretty much guaranteed to get most of the people who are currently gaming on those. That's not necessarily a PS4/XBone-sized audience, but it's bigger than ~10-15m.

How well it does beyond that, I'm not sure- a lot of that depends on how quickly they can get the price down. But it has a half-decent floor.
 
I don't understand the pessimism. I'm definitely not quite as "plugged into the industry" as a lot of you all, but to me, it seems like it could succeed.

Everyone I know with kids has bought them some kind of tablet device to play games on. I could see this appealing to parents who remember Nintendo from their own childhood, and now they have kids who want to game on a tablet.

I think with more "Western" advertising that features the "Wii Sports" aspects of the Switch would go a long way to increasing demand.

I'm not sure what price people expected, there was no way it was ever going to be cheaper than $249, so only being $50 more than that doesn't seem like a dealbreaker. I realize it's not a great price for a hardcore gamer who can only afford one system, but I think Nintendo is looking beyond only that market to try to get more people on board like they did with the Wii.

I think the name is a great idea, because will realize it's something new and different. Wii U lacked marketing and the name was a mistake because the average consumer had no idea if it was different from the Wii that had been sitting in their closet for 3 years collecting dust.

If Nintendo markets this thing properly in the West I see no reason why it can't be successful.
The tablet argument doesnt work when you realize that little kids can stick to their tavlet, and that wiiu was supposed to be the console appealing to tablet gamers


Thats not whats going to sell the console.
 

MadOdorMachine

No additional functions
I'll say that as disastrous as this may be (I don't think it'll be particularly worse than Wii U, but then again I'm not expecting much better) Nintendo still has the money to weather this out. It's not like this is an existential mistake at this point.

If they continue doing what they've been doing, then there will become a point when it doesn't matter how much money they have saved up. The damage will have been irreversible and the cost of turning things around prohibitive. Remember, the 3DS launched at $250 and had a weak line-up. This caused Iwata to take drastic measures to turn it around. Right now it looks like Nintendo has learned nothing from their mistakes on both the handheld and console side. It's nothing to take lightly.
 
it also has splatoon, fire emblem musou, arms and xenoblad 2 comming this year but whatever suits your image

1,2 switch though

on a more serious note: If you look at how pokemon moon and sun sold after pokemon go I could see a pokemon stars selling quite well too. also mario might get a serious boost after the succesful launch of mario run

its the first year though.

Two supremely unsuccessful franchises and a new unproven entry that looks unbelievably gimmicky.
 

Sizzel

Member
No not by current (ps4,xbone) standards. It is for a large portion of the gaming consumers going to be a secondary console. It is hamstrung by technology and lack of multiplats. This is just a fact.

imagine you only have resources for one video gaming console -

You can have one system is lesser technology, less games and comparable price, but niche games you totally love and portability

or

You can have another system "cutting edge for consoles" technology all of the multplats everyone is talking about, some niche/exclusive games you love (PS and to a MUCH lesser degree XBOX), comparable price, but no portability


Nintendo's path to glory is either a cutting edge android based phone (or better application that runs on phones that you buy games in) that is also a gaming system or a cutting edge console that can support multi plats.
 
Whatss there for the casual gamer tho?

Wii Sports was the perfect party game; 1 2 Switch seems not so much particularly since the focus seems to be playing without the screen (i remember casuals at party being geeked at making their avatars and people cheering on the game on screen).

I have been to parties where people played games like 1 2 Switch, so they exist.
 
As sad as it makes me - I'm betting no.

The launch titles, aside from LoZ are meh and you can just get LoZ on the Wii U.

The launch window titles are...mostly underwhelming or things you can get elsewhere.


All this at $300? DOA unless people are really blown away by the mobility aspect of the switch.
 

low-G

Member
I think it'll track no better than 90% of Wii U's sales. That means at any one point it'll be selling less than Wii U by ~10%+.

Also I suspect those that guy it won't even like it nearly as much as the Wii U.
 

AngryMoth

Member
I was optimistic but the new info about price etc is a real disappointment. Definitely don't think it will be a success out on the gate
 

TheFlow

Banned
People who think it will do worse than the Wii U are delusional. It's basically the successor to the Wii U, 3DS *and* Vita, sose it's pretty much guaranteed to get most of the people who are currently gaming on tho. That's not necessarily a PS4/XBone-sized audience, but it's bigger than ~10-15m.

How well it does beyond that, I'm not sure- a lot of that depends on how quickly they can get the price down. But it has a half-decent floor.

why would someone stop playing their 3ds/vita and buy a Switch?

the switch at the moment is a sequel to the wii u. not the 3ds.
 
Jesus Christ is GAF that pessimistic? I'm going to say yes it will do well. It seems like they have their marketing back again because the Switch logo and animation is pretty neat, the concept itself is easy to explain, and even if the launch lineup could be better games are going to start rolling out for this thing compared to previous Nintendo consoles.

And $300 is too much? Really?

People have provided many well thought out reasons as to why they are skeptical, did you read any of them? You think it's going to sell because of a logo and concept? I just don't see how anyone looking at this rationally without any emotion could think Nintendo is going to do much better than Wii U numbers. Let's go down the list:

- Underpowered hardware that is too expensive compared to the competition just like the Wii U. Will most likely alienate 3rd party devs in the west and Nintendo will be forced to seek partnerships again

- 32GB internal storage in 2017

- Obscenely expensive controllers and peripherals

- Paid online when Nintendo has a history of incompetence in regards to this

- Poor battery life and too large to function as a dedicated handheld yet too weak and expensive compared to their competition in the console space. Essentially the worst of both worlds.

- $300 price tag and that's before tax or buying games/an extra controller. Might be cheap to you but it's not to many others and you have no right to question other people's purchasing decisions or budgets

- Poor launch line up propped up by Zelda which they delayed in an attempt to provide Switch with something compelling

Did I miss anything?
 

Chao

Member
Always go with the opposite of GAF's reaction, so yes.

DS was going to get eaten alive by PSP,
Wii was two gamecubes ductaped together and was laughable against PS3 and Xbox 360
3DS was going to get eaten alive by PSvita

The only one time GAF was right was the WiiU, but if you hate every new Nintendo hardware at least one time to have to get it right I guess.

So I will go with "massive success"
 

orhnsnmz

Member
I mean, as a gamer my first thought after the presentation was that this thing will bomb hard.

But after thinking about it a little, being able to play a new full console version of Zelda on a plane/train? And what about Mario, Skyrim, FIFA, all on the go and not the terrible handheld or mobile versions you usually get!

Casual gamers don't care about FPS, low res or no 8h battery life, they will eat up this shit (and hell, I will too).
So I think it will be a success, maybe will have a similar trajectory to the Wii (albeit in smaller scale).

EDIT: It should've had the "1, 2, Switch" game packed in though, huge mistake on that front.

Oh and it will also get multiple Pokémon and Professor Layton games, which will probably be exclusive to the Switch (if they decide to drop 3DS entirely next year or shortly after that).

They should really have marketed this thing as a handheld console which you can also play at home on your couch, then everyone would certainly be more optimistic about this thing!

I mean Skyrim on a handheld device (even though it's a 6 year old game by now) sounds amazing!
 

pvpness

Member
I don't think the outlook is great because I don't know who they want to buy it. People that really want to play video games at social events that would otherwise lack video games? Is this a portable with a focus on local mp gaming truly? Who wants this kind of thing as a home console when there is vr and 4k and shit like that with a similar price of entry? Really curious to see how the market responds across 2017.
 
maybe

- The pricing is a colossal problem. It would have worked fine as competition to the PS4/XB1 at the beginning of the generation but there is honestly very little reason to shell out that much money when you can purchase either of those consoles (likely in a bundle) and immediately have access to way more games.

- Extending on the pricing issue is the cost of the accessories. The Joy-Cons look like pretty damn cool controllers IMO but holy shit there is no way I'm paying $80 for a set of them. For a console emphasizing local multiplayer with friends (on the go!) it makes no sense. Nobody is going to buy them, especially not parents for their kids and their friends to play with.

- Paid online sucks ass but might as well have been inevitable with the huge profits from XBL and PS+. But it better be comparatively cheap for anyone to actually buy-in.

- The games announced excited me, but the launch window is terrible. There's really no reason to buy a Switch until the summer, and even then you might as well wait until the winter for Mario. 2018 needs to deliver on the games and prove itself as a sort of 3DS successor or it is probably destined to flop.

My biggest frustration with the system reveal is the lack of information on things like the OS, UI, VC, eShop, account system etc. which makes me think many of them are still being worked on for "completion" lining up with the beginning of paid Nintendo online. Which makes me wonder why they didn't delay the system further which would have benefited the console in numerous ways.
 

hohoXD123

Member
it also has splatoon, fire emblem musou, arms and xenoblad 2 comming this year but whatever suits your image

1,2 switch though

on a more serious note: If you look at how pokemon moon and sun sold after pokemon go I could see a pokemon stars selling quite well too. also mario might get a serious boost after the succesful launch of mario run

its the first year though.

I will figuratively eat my sock if XC2 releases this year.
 

reKon

Banned
Jesus Christ is GAF that pessimistic? I'm going to say yes it will do well. It seems like they have their marketing back again because the Switch logo and animation is pretty neat, the concept itself is easy to explain, and even if the launch lineup could be better games are going to start rolling out for this thing compared to previous Nintendo consoles.

And $300 is too much? Really?

It is when your competition is less. Pricing is key and Nintendo fans are not enough to provide good sales. Do prospective buyers really need to buy this day one if that already have a Wii U? Will enough of them get it to play an upgraded Zelda?

A lot of people are seeing limitations in power, battery life, and the storage of the device. I understand why Nintendo priced it like that, but they will definitely need a price cut at least 6 months after.
 
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