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[ArkhamFantasy]

The first year is going to be rough, i think Nintendo knows its not going to be able to compete with the PS4/XBO without Pokemon so its just going to maximize the profits it gets from the hardcore nintendo fans. Thats why you are seeing $299 for a 32GB console, 70 for a pro controller, etc.

The thing will start selling well whenever it gets a slim revision that makes it small enough to fit in your pocket. Then you are looking at a $199 pokemon bundle. Fire Emblem and Animal Crossing wont be far behind that pokemon game. Thats when it will start selling.

If i were to wager a guess, i'd say it will do about 40 million on low end , 60 on the high end, good enough for Nintendo to keep making hardware.

 

[MegaManTrigger]

It had a LOT to do with performance value to consumers, lower powered higher price is a sure way to lose customer mindshare especially in the casual market. Look at apple vs pc for decades.

Except at the time of the Xbox One reveal, PS4 specs weren't even revealed, so consumers didn't have a point of comparison in both specs and price. Once the Xbox One was revealed, and all of this negative reaction about their poorly conceptualized system took effect.

 

[forknknife]

It's going to be a spectacular failure, finally forcing Nintendo to become a third party developer.

Can't wait to play the next Zelda on a Sony console in a few years.

More and more I'm wishing that would happen. Imagine this Zelda on a PS4. Some will say Zelda looks good enough on the switch but i don't buy it, the image quality is crap , the filters are just distractions to hide the lack of geometry and hi resolution textures and the pop in is terrible. All those defects really take away from the immersion and I'd say that's the second most important thing to a Zelda game after the gameplay.

 

[benjammin]

I WANT it to be a success, but I expect it to do as well, or slightly better, than the Wii U. Nintendo just makes too many questionable decisions to be competitive, and I don't expect that the majority consumers are going to want to spend $400+ on a second console.

 

[BeauRoger]

Feels like the only thing that truly can get the ball rolling is a ambitious Pokemon game, which i think is coming sooner or later. That alone should propel it above the Wii U and GC, especially if it incorporates Pokemon Go elements. Mario and Zelda arent really system sellers like they used to be, and i doubt nintendo can create another hit mainstream franchise. No, its all on pokemon along with a 199- or less pricetag.

 

[The_Endgamer]

I love people mentioning price here haha...

PS3 launched at $1000AUD and look how they switched that around.

GAF has a short memory.

 

[HardRojo]

It's going to be a spectacular failure, finally forcing Nintendo to become a third party developer.

Can't wait to play the next Zelda on a Sony console in a few years.

The only reason I'd want this to happen is so that we can finally have a new and amazing Metroid game worthy of the franchise. The way Nintendo treats it is just laughable and sadly it is my favorite IP from then. Still, it'd be much better if it was Nintendo managing their own IPs in their own hardware, but reveals like the Switch aren't helping at all.

 

[Parapraxis]

You guys have short memories.

PS4 - First Year
Resogun, Killzone Shadow Fall, Knack, Infamous: Second Son, First Light and Drive Club

vs.

Switch - First Year
Zelda: Breath of the Wild, Super Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (will make it by March 2018), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Splatoon 2, Ultra Street Fighter 2, 1, 2, Switch, Super Bomberman R, Snipperclips, Fire Emblem Warriors, Arms

Even if you take Zelda away for being on Wii U, and Mario Kart for being an enhanced port (arguably Mario Kart 8.5), it is still a wash Switch wins and we haven't even played any of the games, because we know almost all of the first year PS4 titles were not that good.

All 180 games in the first year of PS4 were not good...colour me surprised, I thought I had enjoyed quite a few of them.

 

[ClayKavalier]

Where's the Thor option in the poll?

They really fucked up on the price IMO. This will show really well on stuff like Jimmy Fallon's show. There's no way 1 2 Switch isn't featured on an episode. It could be huge in schools too. If they would have priced it closer to $200 I think it would have been a huge hit. But $300, and $60 per game, and expensive accessories are going to make people really consider whether they need it, especially when many, many people have Wiis that have been gather dust since they lost interest in Wii Sports and NSMB.

 

[2Smashed4U]

By the way - where the hell are all of Nintendo's second party devs? Where is a new Retro game? Either Metroid or DKC, *something* from them?

Nintendo has known this has been coming for probably at least 3 years now. Those devs haven't really done jack in that time. Why not focus those resources on the big console reveal that's coming and try ensure that it's a massive success?

 

[Toki767]

As an adult I have no interest in it.

As a parent? It is too expensive and the lineup is awful. If it comes good in a couple of years I might pick one up cheap but I can't see this being anything else than an unsupported failure.

To be honest I don't think even Nintendo are taking this launch seriously and it seems like it is being sent out to die. This is likely while Nintendo transitions fully to a mobile company and it is on iphones that my kids will get their Nintendo fix.

Nintendo are basically doing one thing with this launch: Targeting and price gouging diehard fans who want to play Zelda.

This seems like a worse launch scenario than the Wii U.

 

[Gator86]

This will, in the end, have a fantastic set of third-party games. The DS era is proof of this. This if the first year. I don't need Call of Duty or Assassin's Creed or any other AAA-shovelware.

You guys have short memories.

PS4 - First Year
Resogun, Killzone Shadow Fall, Knack, Infamous: Second Son, First Light and Drive Club

vs.

Switch - First Year
Zelda: Breath of the Wild, Super Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (will make it by March 2018), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Splatoon 2, Ultra Street Fighter 2, 1, 2, Switch, Super Bomberman R, Snipperclips, Fire Emblem Warriors, Arms

Even if you take Zelda away for being on Wii U, and Mario Kart for being an enhanced port (arguably Mario Kart 8.5), it is still a wash Switch wins and we haven't even played any of the games, because we know almost all of the first year PS4 titles were not that good.

So AAA games are shovelware and you ignore indies altogether. Why waste so many words just to say "only Nintendo games are real games!"

Some of this shit is embarrassing.

 

[TheChaos]

Everything about this screams Wii U 2.0.

Also where the fuck is Retro?

 

[darkside31337]

You guys have short memories.

PS4 - First Year
Resogun, Killzone Shadow Fall, Knack, Infamous: Second Son, First Light and Drive Club

vs.

Switch - First Year
Zelda: Breath of the Wild, Super Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (will make it by March 2018), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Splatoon 2, Ultra Street Fighter 2, 1, 2, Switch, Super Bomberman R, Snipperclips, Fire Emblem Warriors, Arms

Even if you take Zelda away for being on Wii U, and Mario Kart for being an enhanced port (arguably Mario Kart 8.5), it is still a wash Switch wins and we haven't even played any of the games, because we know almost all of the first year PS4 titles were not that good.

Except... the PS4 isn't 1 year old. And its cheaper than the Switch. This comparison is really silly. Even if you think the Switch's initial lineup is better than the PS4/XB1... those systems aren't on their first year.

I think numbers wise it will sell better than the Wii U, and really not all that close, but thats kind of a given. If it sold double the Wii U it'd still be disappointing for them because thats half of what the 3DS is at.

 

[Piggus]

You guys have short memories.

PS4 - First Year
Resogun, Killzone Shadow Fall, Knack, Infamous: Second Son, First Light and Drive Club

vs.

Switch - First Year
Zelda: Breath of the Wild, Super Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (will make it by March 2018), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Splatoon 2, Ultra Street Fighter 2, 1, 2, Switch, Super Bomberman R, Snipperclips, Fire Emblem Warriors, Arms

Even if you take Zelda away for being on Wii U, and Mario Kart for being an enhanced port (arguably Mario Kart 8.5), it is still a wash Switch wins and we haven't even played any of the games, because we know almost all of the first year PS4 titles were not that good.

The way you worded your post made it seem like you were saying that Switch's launch lineup is better than Sony's entire first party lineup to date.

 

[KiefbladeMaster]

I love people mentioning price here haha...

I remember the PS3 was $1000AUD and look how they switched that around.

GAF has a short memory.

And where is the part when Nintendo finally decreased their consoles price after three years of lackluster sales? Being pretty one sided here.

At least Sony actually responded to the criticism and dropped the price quickly, lol.

 

[reson8or]

I'm a little more optimistic. I estimated N64 tier sales in my first lengthy reply here. Nintendo isn't competing with Xbox and PS4, and they operate differently.

Nintendo is here for the long term.

I also think I was being a bit pessimistic, but this is coming from a place of excitement pre-reveal to a place of indifference after. If I were in a better mood, I'd probably go higher than GC level.

 

[Parapraxis]

By the way - where the hell are all of Nintendo's second party devs? Where is a new Retro game? Either Metroid or DKC, *something* from them?

Nintendo has known this has been coming for probably at least 3 years now. Those devs haven't really done jack in that time. Why not focus those resources on the big console reveal that's coming and try ensure that it's a massive success?

This is a question that really needs answering, given the time since WiiU was dropped software-wise the Switch should have had 25+ games at launch and a 20 minute sizzle reel.

 

[2Smashed4U]

So AAA games are shovelware and you ignore indies altogether. Why waste so many words just to say "only Nintendo games are real games!"

Some of this shit is embarrassing.

Cmon man, are you really gonna sit there and act like ARMS isn't a clear GOTY contender?

 

[J@hranimo]

I have no doubt that the Nintendo fan choir will sing it's praises. Beyond that? I'm not expecting it to make any real noise at all, but we shall see.

Yeah that's true, although as a Nintendo fan and gamer in general I'll give them a year to see how it does.

 

[Yazzees]

weak launch lineup + the shortages nintendo has been so insistent upon lately + price on the higher end of what was expected = bombaaaa

 

[Pifje]

Calling 20 million in lifetime sales. Better than Wii U, but still incredibly poor.

 

[Steel]

Imagine it'll do better than the wii u seeing as it'll pull in some of the 3ds audience as well.

I have no doubt that the Nintendo fan choir will sing it's praises. Beyond that? I'm not expecting it to make any real noise at all, but we shall see.

I have a feeling even some of the nintendo faithful will be somewhat shaken by the joke of a paid online service they're pushing.

 

[The_Endgamer]

And where is the part when Nintendo finally decreased their consoles price after three years of lackluster sales? Being pretty one sided here.

At least Sony actually responded to the criticism and dropped the price quickly, lol.

I'm saying, at launch the prices aren't as bad as the PS3. The 'Dead on Arrival' comments are over the top considering the precedent for something much, much more expensive being a success.

 

[jackdoe]

All 180 games in the first year of PS4 were not good...colour me surprised, I thought I had enjoyed quite a few of them.

I'm looking at that list and I realize it's missing a bunch of big PS4 titles. Last of Us, Destiny, and GTA V all came to the PS4 within its first year right?

 

[Rurunaki]

It will sell, but not Wii tier levels. Switch first year would be on par with xb1 first year imo.

 

[Kssio_Aug]

To be honest I think Switch's line-up is pretty decent for a launch console. The problem, in my opinion, relies on the hardware, price and the paywall for a service that will probably continue being shit.

If you don't care for 2.5 hours battery (maybe you will only use it docked, or mostly anyway) and you can afford the price where you live; if you don't care for paying one more subscription for a dubious service; then you should be fine. It probably will offer a good ammount of Nintendo games, as any Nintendo console will ever do.

I was planning to grab it. But the console price summed up with a new subscription and with the fact that Nintendo accessories and games hardly drops price totally pulled me away. The battery life when undocked also plays a quite negative role for me. That said, I may afford the console when it's generation ends or I will just grab a cheaper Wii U since I haven't played it's games yet.

But I don't think I'm alone. I believe a very expressive number of potential buyers won't get the console giving it's price and all things involved to keep it stellar high.

 

[facetheslayer92]

By the way - where the hell are all of Nintendo's second party devs? Where is a new Retro game? Either Metroid or DKC, *something* from them?

Nintendo has known this has been coming for probably at least 3 years now. Those devs haven't really done jack in that time. Why not focus those resources on the big console reveal that's coming and try ensure that it's a massive success?

They're sending the Switch out to die. Even Nintendo might not believe in it. They could have avoided some of the blowback by not saying anything until E3 and launching in November. They have way bigger issues over there clearly, then getting their Studios in line.

 

[Melchiah]

Except at the time of the Xbox One reveal, PS4 specs weren't even revealed, so consumers didn't have a point of comparison in both specs and price. Once the Xbox One was revealed, and all of this negative reaction about their poorly conceptualized system took effect.

The PS4 specs were revealed in February 2013.

 

[Toparaman]

Ah yes, the ol' "here's a list of every game that's coming out for it" argument.

Arms and 1, 2 Switch man, they're definitely sleeper hits, you're onto something here.

Learn to read.

 

[2Smashed4U]

Except... the PS4 isn't 1 year old. And its cheaper than the Switch. This comparison is really silly. Even if you think the Switch's initial lineup is better than the PS4/XB1... those systems aren't on their first year.

I think numbers wise it will sell better than the Wii U, and really not all that close, but thats kind of a given. If it sold double the Wii U it'd still be disappointing for them because thats half of what the 3DS is at.

That's what Nintendo has dug themselves into by staggering their launches and releasing new consoles in the middle of a new console generation the last couple times out now.

I'll echo what I've seen a lot of people saying - if this is truly the best they can do right now, I would've preferred they just ride out the Wii U a couple more years and wait until better tech to pull this concept off with better execution becomes cheaper and they couldve launched a system that's at least somewhere in the ballpark of the competition, so at the very least they could get SOME major third party AAA support.

But if they're going to keep launching mid-gen and playing catch up with vastly inferior hardware, I just don't see them really turning it around.

 

[ironcreed]

I have a feeling even the nintendo faithful will be somewhat shaken by the joke of a paid online service they're pushing.

As they should, honestly. Nintendo were considered the good guys on this front, but now they are going to charge for what will without question be the worst service. And that is on top of being overpriced in general and unappealing as a console or a portable unit.

 

[TreasureHunterG]

Jesus, lots of cynicism and fanboyism in this thread already. Yeah, third-party support isn't really that stellar and the specs could have been better, but blaming price and paywall aren't really valid complains as many here bought PS4 day one, and it had a very lackluster launch line-up, it was 400$ and had a paywall. Ok, it's alright with Sony but bad with Nintendo... I got the point.

 

[Parapraxis]

I'm looking at that list and I realize it's missing a bunch of big PS4 titles. Last of Us, Destiny, and GTA V all came to the PS4 within its first year right?

That's correct.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Jesus, lots of cynicism and fanboyism in this thread already. Yeah, third-party support isn't really that stellar and the specs could have been better, but blaming price and paywall aren't really valid complains as many here bought PS4 day one, and it had a very lackluster launch line-up, it was 400$ and had a paywall. Ok, it's alright with Sony but bad with Nintendo... I got the point.

Nah I think it went over your head, like way over.

 

[2Smashed4U]

They're sending the Switch out to die. Even Nintendo might not believe in it. They could have avoided some of the blowback by not saying anything until E3 and launching in November. They have way bigger issues over there clearly, then getting their Studios in line.

Yeah honestly I got the vibe, everything about that presser last night seemed oddly hastily thrown together and very poorly planned, as if they didn't know they were building up to this the past few years. That was the most shocking thing is how last-minute and unprepared everything about it felt.

 

[SpiceMelange]

Maybe in the US. Here in Canada it's going to be dead on arrival. PS4 had to get some common sense back that you can't just currency convert and scaled back the price after the xbone started dominating here (a console that didn't price convert), people won't pay outrageous prices.

 

[KOHIPEET]

Overpriced. Third party support on a bare minimum (Imagine bf1 on that hardware).

Not a high chance of great success.

 

[LordRaptor]

Arms and 1, 2 Switch man, they're definitely sleeper hits, you're onto something here.

Cmon man, are you really gonna sit there and act like ARMS isn't a clear GOTY contender?

Why are you bagging on ARMS so hard?
I get with a kojipro avatar you might not like games that are short bursts of unpretentious fun, but still.

 

[Shpeshal Nick]

It'll do better than the WiiU, but the pricing of everything and the charging for online will prevent it hitting GameCube numbers.

 

[Rurunaki]

Jesus, lots of cynicism and fanboyism in this thread already. Yeah, third-party support isn't really that stellar and the specs could have been better, but blaming price and paywall aren't really valid complains as many here bought PS4 day one, and it had a very lackluster launch line-up, it was 400$ and had a paywall. Ok, it's alright with Sony but bad with Nintendo... I got the point.

Problem with this logic is basically Switch is going up against ps4 and xb1 which have higher specs and are on the same price range with bundled games. Ps4 and xb1 launch price was competing with WiiU which at that point hasn't even dropped.

 

[IndustryX]

I think it will tank

 

[Future]

I'm not seeing the games. OG content like Zelda and Mario are the only biggies besides enhanced ports and experiments). Nintendo fans already got Wii U's so no rush till the holiday

I'm not seeing the gimmick. Motion was a kind of revolution of ideas for the wii that people felt and bought into. For the switch it's the transference from console to portable, which needs the games that players are currently talking about to be relevant. If new dark souls was on this with full console capability and multiplayer? YES! Bomberman.... wat?

I'm not seeing the casual appeal. What new killer app emphasizes the portable multiplayer? No one could possibly believe it's 1 2 switch. What new twist, like dual ds screens, 3D, etc does it have? What social media apps and content will it have?

I'm not seeing the catch up to modern gaming. Power is weak. Online features strange (what's this focus on an app?). 3rd party support weak at launch. OS an after thought. Streaming on twitch? Forget it

Price is high enough, and newness weak enough, that I imagine people don't rush and get this one besides the core Nintendo fan

 

[xxracerxx]

I could see a Switch console that is a box only and not the display unit in a year and a half or two.

 

[KiefbladeMaster]

I'm saying the prices aren't as bad as the PS3. The 'Dead on Arrival' comments are over the top considering the precedent for something much, much more expensive being a success.

Well, I'd argue you have to look at the current state of the market and especially at what the competition is offering.

Right now, someone could go buy a system for $250, brand new, that is vastly more powerful than the Switch. Compile that with a huge selection of titles already released, with more to come and the Switch doesn't seem like it's in a good spot at all. The Switch has more expensive peripherals, a worse offering for online play, minimal storage, etc.

We're getting ports of games from 2013 that released on the Wii U already. Rayman Legends, Lego City Undercover, Mario Kart 8, (Can argue the new battle maps are extra content), Smash, etc. It's ridiculous. Their flagship launch title is already coming out for the previous console as well, so that leaves them with a drought until, what, late summer/holidays? Sans a couple indie titles and mini-game compilations.

Sony decided to get competitive with the PS3 and sold it at a loss, still kept third party relations and pushed out good exclusives. That's what turned them around.

 

[The_Endgamer]

Yeah honestly I got the vibe, everything about that presser last night seemed oddly hastily thrown together and very poorly planned, as if they didn't know they were building up to this the past few years. That was the most shocking thing is how last-minute and unprepared everything about it felt.

Surely this is a joke post? You might not like the games/Nintendo in general but their communication for their concepts were spot on.

 

[2Smashed4U]

Why are you bagging on ARMS so hard?
I get with a kojipro avatar you might not like games that are short bursts of unpretentious fun, but still.

It just seems like a game that was put together in the hour before the presentation backstage or something. It's a store brand video game. Everything about it is super generic, the title, the characters. Maybe it's fun (though I've already read it gets old very fast from reports on the floor), but the reveal from the presentation last night was pretty lol-worthy.

 

[Steel]

Jesus, lots of cynicism and fanboyism in this thread already. Yeah, third-party support isn't really that stellar and the specs could have been better, but blaming price and paywall aren't really valid complains as many here bought PS4 day one, and it had a very lackluster launch line-up, it was 400$ and had a paywall. Ok, it's alright with Sony but bad with Nintendo... I got the point.

The instant game collection on PS3 had proven the value of PS+ beyond just online with the instant game collection(which nintendo is not copying). Not to mention Sony might've had an inferior online service to Microsoft, but it wasn't complete trash tier like Nintendo's has been. Furthermore, you said it yourself, the Switch doesn't have 3rd party support. The majority of major online titles are 3rd party. Unless you think everyone's gonna roll over and pay for a second or third online service, people are gonna choose the system that has more popular online games to pay for online.

On top of all that, yes you had people complaining about the PS4 going paid online.

 

[Corine]

Wasn't impressed at all by the show so my vote is no.

 

[Melchiah]

All 180 games in the first year of PS4 were not good...colour me surprised, I thought I had enjoyed quite a few of them.

I'm looking at that list and I realize it's missing a bunch of big PS4 titles. Last of Us, Destiny, and GTA V all came to the PS4 within its first year right?

Funnily enough, the 3rd party games can pretty much be considered exclusives, as they weren't available on Wii U, and most likely won't be available on Switch. That's why it's pointless to compare only the 1st party titles, as PS4/XBO users have a lot more multiplatforms to play.