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Media Create Sales: Week 28, 2017 (Jul 10 - Jul 16)

N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
ArkhamFantasy said:
I think it depends on review scores. Back in the PS1/PS2 era JRPGs were so plentiful that it was easy for a good game to get buried and forgotten about in the west. But there's alot less physical releases now that stuff like Nioh, Persona, and even Nier is able to succeed if reviews are good enough.

If it gets an 85+ metacritic score people aren't going to ignore it.
Click to expand...
So I went to look up a counter example, but then I noticed there are only 90 PS4 games with an 85 or above, and like less than a third of those are $60 retail games from this generation, so if it can get in that surprisingly exclusive club, I agree it should be fine.
 
O

OfficerRaichu15

Member
Ōkami;244268493 said:
Most predictions are in.

Average puts PS4 version over the 3DS one, by less than 50k, but still. Average for Splatoon 2 is below 150k.
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That's more than I thought it would have lol.
And great Dfor DQ11 PS4
 
M

MoonFrog

Member
Well, I hope it is multiplatform in the west. I think they have more to gain that way than by being multiplatform in Japan. (Well, they have a lot to gain from expanding to 3DS--I mean if they instead did the traditional route and just did a 3DS game).
 
F

Father_Brain

Banned
Nirolak said:
I'm curious if they will change anything for the Western release.

Like, IIRC, the game doesn't have voice acting and instead has a booping noise you might associate with an indie title or an old DOS game. I think it's going to be pretty hard to market a $60 PS4 game overseas with stuff like that.
Click to expand...

Didn't the Western release of DQVIII add voice acting, an orchestral score, and redesigned menus for that reason? I could see that happening again, though it only helped sales so much the first time.
 
S

sinonobu

Banned
Ōkami;244268493 said:
Most predictions are in.

Average puts PS4 version over the 3DS one, by less than 50k, but still. Average for Splatoon 2 is below 150k.
Click to expand...

PS4 version over 3ds version? That's kinda surprising.
 
D

Datschge

Member
Liabe Brave said:
That's not how it works, though. Manufacturing doesn't stop and start again based on calendar months. It's continuous, so any 4-week period has the same limits as "July" or "August". A sequence of weeks at 200k/75k/75k/50k in Japan alone is not plausible, whether they're spread out over two calendar months or not.

And even if we did treat calendar months as quanta, you're still suggesting that Nintendo ship about 67% and 45% of the entire worldwide supply to Japan in those months. That'd make stock levels elsewhere disastrous.

Of course, this is assuming Nintendo's shipment forecast is still correct. And also that they would not starve the Splatoon 2 launch in other regions in order to better supply Japan (but still not enough supply to meet demand). And also that they wish to supply the holidays at double the rate of the summer months. I think those are plausible assumptions, however.
Click to expand...
Note that shipping time to other regions (like US east coast and Europe) can exceed one month. So while production should be steady (not a given considering shortage of parts may fluctuate as well) actual stock arriving at stores globally at a given time varies depending on when allocations are put to further away markets.
 
V

Vinnk

Member
sinonobu said:
PS4 version over 3ds version? That's kinda surprising.
Click to expand...

Might have to do with the announced Switch version? I know I personally am waiting to see what that one is like before investing in either of the current 2 versions. I figure I will only play through it once so I might as well have the best experience (which might not turn out to be the Switch version depending on what it is).
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
ArkhamFantasy said:
Yeah, i dont understand how thats possible. Is Japan starting to care about HD visuals now?
Click to expand...
We did see this kind of behavior in the West in the lead up to the PS4/XB1.

Even people who weren't getting a PS4/XB1 didn't want to pick up new games until they eventually got one, and 360/PS3 software suffered far more than PS4/XB1 software was gaining.

I suspect there's a lot of customers who are interested in DQXI, but don't want to get it until they have a PS4 or Switch since the visual difference is so large versus something like cross-gen Yakuza.
 
T

Tratorn

Member
So 2m for PS4 + 3DS if those predictions become reality. Could someone post FW numbers for some (or even all) older main line titles?
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
If Splatoon 2 behaves how I think most of us think it will, it will have a crazy drop next week then stay really consistent for a long time.
 
M

MoonFrog

Member
Nirolak said:
We did see this kind of behavior in the West in the lead up to the PS4/XB1.

Even people who weren't getting a PS4/XB1 didn't want to pick up new games until they eventually got one, and 360/PS3 software suffered far more than PS4/XB1 software was gaining.

I suspect there's a lot of customers who are interested in DQXI, but don't want to get it until they have a PS4 or Switch since the visual difference is so large versus something like cross-gen Yakuza.
Click to expand...
Hmmm...I wonder if Switch sales of it will bear this out. Or if PS4 will have better legs as new consoles are sold than we'd predict.

But copies just lost as I was waiting to buy it but never did could also be the result of this and we can't measure that so much.
 
L

LordKano

Member
Nirolak said:
We did see this kind of behavior in the West in the lead up to the PS4/XB1.

Even people who weren't getting a PS4/XB1 didn't want to pick up new games until they eventually got one, and 360/PS3 software suffered far more than PS4/XB1 software was gaining.

I suspect there's a lot of customers who are interested in DQXI, but don't want to get it until they have a PS4 or Switch since the visual difference is so large versus something like cross-gen Yakuza.
Click to expand...

If that's the case that could potentially lead to a good Switch debut if it doesn't release too far away but I just think that it's another case of 3DS userbase not willing to play on that old system anymore.

NintendosBooger said:
Didn't stop BotW.
Click to expand...

BoTW sold to 80-90% of the current userbase when it launched ?
 
M

Mory Dunz

Member
Nirolak said:
I'm curious if they will change anything for the Western release.

Like, IIRC, the game doesn't have voice acting and instead has a booping noise you might associate with an indie title or an old DOS game. I think it's going to be pretty hard to market a $60 PS4 game overseas with stuff like that.
Click to expand...

I've felt this way for a while.
I don't know about about Dragon Quest growing in the west.

The game just doesn't seem to have modern features that we've come to expect.

The no voice acting, MIDI like music, cutscene direction, silent protag, etc
 
V

Vena

Member
MoonFrog said:
Hmmm...I wonder if Switch sales of it will bear this out. Or if PS4 will have better legs as new consoles are sold than we'd predict.

But copies just lost as I was waiting to buy it but never did could also be the result of this and we can't measure that so much.
Click to expand...

Long term PS4/3DS legs will be crippled by the used market barring some truly long winded, unexpected performance.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Madouu said:
yeah I guess it's really not that surprising when you factor switch availability these last few weeks
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It's worth keeping in mind that a large segment of people who have bought the Switch thus far might not be into multiplayer gaming, since the main motivation was Zelda.

Those who pick it up later could very well be a different case in regards to legs.
 
O

Oregano

Member
Nirolak said:
We did see this kind of behavior in the West in the lead up to the PS4/XB1.

Even people who weren't getting a PS4/XB1 didn't want to pick up new games until they eventually got one, and 360/PS3 software suffered far more than PS4/XB1 software was gaining.

I suspect there's a lot of customers who are interested in DQXI, but don't want to get it until they have a PS4 or Switch since the visual difference is so large versus something like cross-gen Yakuza.
Click to expand...

I think it perhaps mischaracterizes Japan as not caring about visuals. The choice between Vita/PS4 skus or in case 3DS/PS4 skus isn't just visuals but convenience/portability too.

The reason Switch will throw a spanner in the works for 3DS is because it has the same level of convenience but with the higher production values.
 
D

Datschge

Member
Nirolak said:
We did see this kind of behavior in the West in the lead up to the PS4/XB1.

Even people who weren't getting a PS4/XB1 didn't want to pick up new games until they eventually got one, and 360/PS3 software suffered far more than PS4/XB1 software was gaining.

I suspect there's a lot of customers who are interested in DQXI, but don't want to get it until they have a PS4 or Switch since the visual difference is so large versus something like cross-gen Yakuza.
Click to expand...
It's interesting since for a long time the Japanese market showed the opposite behavior going from PS3/Vita to PS4.
 
V

Vena

Member
Datschge said:
It's interesting since for a long time the Japanese market showed the opposite behavior going from PS3/Vita to PS4.
Click to expand...

Well, portability is still what keeps the 3DS chugging along in its 6th year at par. But this title in particular came too late in its life and, even still, we're looking at/talking about a 50/50 spread.

Vita has fallen off because the games have turned to tire fires on the platform.

schuelma said:
And again, no multiplayer.
Click to expand...

Right. There's no long-term hook here.
 
Z

Zedark

Member
OfficerRaichu15 said:
Honestly if Splatoon 2 has a 100k+ 2nd week I would be shocked.
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Really? Switch numbers will be at 1.2 million this week, so 350k users are left assuming S2 sells 850k as predicted. From there, 350k user's are available to buy Splatoon, plus the several 10k users picking up a Switch the next week, whose attach rate to Splatook 2 wiLL very likely be very high as plenty of people ade lookING for a Switch to play Splatoon. 100k+ seems very likely to me.
 
M

MoonFrog

Member
Vena said:
Long term PS4/3DS legs will be crippled by the used market barring some truly long winded, unexpected performance.
Click to expand...
So Switch sales are the test for Nirolak's guess at what could be going on and they're not a perfect test by any means, as people could be getting it used as they buy PS4s or just losing interest as they wait on it and those would be other ways for that possibility to express itself...
 
M

Mory Dunz

Member
Zedark said:
Really? Switch numbers will be at 1.2 million this week, so 350k users are left assuming S2 sells 850k as predicted. From there, 350k user's are available to buy Splatoon, plus the several 10k users picking up a Switch the next week, whose attach rate to Splatook 2 wiLL very likely be very high as plenty of people ade lookING for a Switch to play Splatoon. 100k+ seems very likely to me.
Click to expand...


because that's still an insane attach rate, even for a game like Splatoon 2. But it's looking more likely now from these yso predictions.
 
D.Lo

D.Lo

Member
Normal stuff for Japan, but was weird for me to see: copies of Splatoon 2 already for sale second hand at Book Off.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Just to make certain, early famitsu report would be out at the earliest a day before usual correct?
 
D

Datschge

Member
Vena said:
But this title in particular came too late in its life and, even still, we're looking at/talking about a 50/50 spread.
Click to expand...
That may apply for the current release. We don't know yet how big the audience is that is supposedly waiting for maybe PS4 graphics but portable.
 
O

OfficerRaichu15

Member
schuelma said:
Just to make certain, early famitsu report would be out at the earliest a day before usual correct?
Click to expand...
Honestly we may not even need Famitusu report. Since Splatoon 2 is going to be the biggest opening for the system by far it'll probably or hopefully get PR tomorrow like MK8D and Zelda did.
 
Å

Ōkami

Member
[FC] Dragon Quest: 50.000 / 1.500.000
[FC] Dragon Quest II: Luminaries of the Legendary Line: ? / 2.410.000
[FC] Dragon Quest III: The Seeds of Salvation: 1m sold in 24 hours / 3.800.000
[FC] Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen: Over 150.000 units sold a week before the official release / 3.100.000
[SFC] Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride: Over 500.000 units (second week was higher) / 2.790.000
[SFC] Dragon Quest VI: Realms of Revelation: 1.274.857 / 3.200.000
[PS1] Dragon Quest VII: Fragments of the Forgotten Past: 1.862.065 / 4.140.000
[PS2] Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King: 2.236.881 / 3.750.000
[NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies: 2.343.440 / 4.400.000

[SFC] Dragon Quest I & II: ? / 1.200.000
[SFC] Dragon Quest III: The Seeds of Salvation: 409.082 / 1.400.000
[GBC] Dragon Quest I & II: 269.937 / 763.760
[GBC] Dragon Quest III: The Seeds of Salvation: 154.143 / 637.749
[PS1] Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen: 620.802 / 1.300.000
[PS2] Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride: 1.048.925 / 1.850.000
[NDS] Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen: 601.737 / 1.350.000
[NDS] Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride: 679.442 / 1.400.000
[NDS] Dragon Quest VI: Realms of Revelation: 909.981 / 1.400.000
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII: Fragments of the Forgotten Past: 836.654 / 1.250.000
[3DS] Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King: 615.651 / 1.000.000
 
V

Vena

Member
MoonFrog said:
So Switch sales are the test for Nirolak's guess at what could be going on and they're not a perfect test by any means, as people could be getting it used as they buy PS4s or just losing interest as they wait on it and those would be other ways for that possibility to express itself...
Click to expand...

I don't what's really a test for what. I don't think DQXI is going to have much of a tail on any platform, its a JRPG and, bizarrely, they moved *backwards* from DQIX by removing the multiplayer component entirely. So used or not, after the first few weeks (and pre-launch weeks, ala now) most people interested are going to jump in and that's it. Used copies vs. shipped is going to potentially result in another mess like FFXV, though, so that will depend on SE's plans here vs. how much they can get retailers to buy.

From there, as per sinobi's analysis, others (probably 3DS) are just content to wait for the switch version. 3DS in general has also slowed its ability to move software in its old age.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
OfficerRaichu15 said:
Honestly we may not even need Famitusu report. Since Splatoon 2 is going to be the biggest opening for the system by far it'll probably or hopefully get PR tomorrow like MK8D and Zelda did.
Click to expand...

True. Although I'm not sure that would include a Japanese sales breakdown.
 
O

Oregano

Member
Datschge said:
That may apply for the current release. We don't know yet how big the audience is that is supposedly waiting for maybe PS4 graphics but portable.
Click to expand...

I'd wager the 3DS sku will still represent at least 40% of all sales LTD despite being vastly inferior and releasing six years into the platform's life(and after its successor has been on the market for several months).
 
E

EDarkness

Member
D.Lo said:
Normal stuff for Japan, but was weird for me to see: copies of Splatoon 2 already for sale second hand at Book Off.
Click to expand...

This used to freak me out, too when I was in Japan, but I learned that there are those who will buy a game, play through the story as fast as they can, then trade it back to save money. They aren't interested in the other parts of the game, which I do find crazy...especially for a game like Splatoon where the main focus is on multiplayer matches.
 
A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
EDarkness said:
This used to freak me out, too when I was in Japan, but I learned that there are those who will buy a game, play through the story as fast as they can, then trade it back to save money. They aren't interested in the other parts of the game, which I do find crazy...especially for a game like Splatoon where the main focus is on multiplayer matches.
Click to expand...

Does Japan have game rental stores or something similar?
 
M

MoonFrog

Member
Vena said:
I don't what's really a test for what. I don't think DQXI is going to have much of a tail on any platform, its a JRPG and, bizarrely, they moved *backwards* from DQIX by removing the multiplayer component entirely. So used or not, after the first few weeks (and pre-launch weeks, ala now) most people interested are going to jump in and that's it. Used copies vs. shipped is going to potentially result in another mess like FFXV, though, so that will depend on SE's plans here vs. how much they can get retailers to buy.

From there, as per sinobi's analysis, others (probably 3DS) are just content to wait for the switch version. 3DS in general has also slowed its ability to move software in its old age.
Click to expand...
Test for the idea that people want to wait for better visuals.

My point is, those people either get the game on PS4 when they have PS4, on Switch when it is on Switch and they have Switch, or just stop waiting and don't get it. I guess, thinking about it, a fourth option is they settle for 3DS version, but not at launch.

You pointed out that we probably won't see all PS4 sales of the game down the line because of used market. We also probably wouldn't see later 3DS sales for this same reason.

We also aren't going to see sales lost to waiting.

What we might see is healthy Switch sales. But if we don't see that, it doesn't mean the hypothesis that launch is "weak" because people are waiting is wrong.

That's what I'm trying to say.
 
M

MoonFrog

Member
It would be strange if 3DS were not a thing that appeared in Japan. If it were just not visible or perhaps even otherwise tangible, but still there.
 
D

DarkLordMalik

Member
Color me surprised for DQXI on PS4 since I never expected it to open to something closer to 1 million.

DRAGON QUEST IS BACK ON PS PLATFORMS!
 
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