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[ZSaberLink]

Why are folks taking YSO's predictions as gospel? They've been pretty wrong before.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Potentially seeing a decline to somewhere above DQVII but below DQVIII. Nevermind DQIX.

I mean a decline was inevitable to me even though Duckroll suggested otherwise. But I am just surprised that the PS4 version is keeping so close to 3DS despite the HUGE gulf in the audience on both platforms.

 

[Jawbreaker]

Does Japan have game rental stores or something similar?

No, thanks in part to Nintendo.

 

[LordKano]

So, someone mentionned it before, but Pokkén Tournament DX has entered Comg , with 10 pts 63 days before release. To give a comparison, Pokkén on Wii U entered the charts 76 days before release with 11 pts. It ended its run with 70 points, and launched with 69.675 sales on Media Create.

 

[Vena]

I mean a decline was inevitable to me even though Duckroll suggested otherwise. But I am just surprised that the PS4 version is keeping so close to 3DS despite the HUGE gulf in the audience on both platforms.

Oh that wasn't directed at you, I was looking at Okamis numbers.

 

[Jon Carter]

Why are folks taking YSO's predictions as gospel? They've been pretty wrong before.

Yeah, it baffles me. Every week we have people talking about them like a sales report just came out. They've been way off many times.

 

[Fukuzatsu]

Yeah, i dont understand how thats possible. Is Japan starting to care about HD visuals now?

I mean, the primary commercial I have seen (I live in Fukuoka) is for the PS4 version, of a guy reminiscing about his days of playing DQ on the Famicom or Super Famicom, going "oh the games I used to love are now on the big HD screen with awesome graphics". I don't think I've seen much 3DS-exclusive promotional material, so who knows. Maybe it'll do better than we all think.

 

[Vena]

Yeah, it baffles me. Every week we have people talking about them like a sales report just came out. They've been way off many times.

Sinobi tends to be accurate. On the flip, his current expectations would be... a bad result.

 

[LordKano]

Sinobi tends to be accurate. On the flip, his current expectations would be... a bad result.

What are his expectations ?

Spoiler

I actually thought Sinobi was a member here, but now that I look closer I see that it's not exactly spelled the same...

 

[Vena]

What are his expectations ?

Spoiler

I actually thought Sinobi was a member here, but now that I look closer I see that it's not exactly spelled the same...

800k PS4, 3DS down from previous expectations and potentially at or around a million.

It'd be a really big drop in total for the series for FW performance.

 

[Liabe Brave]

So I went to look up a counter example, but then I noticed there are only 90 PS4 games with an 85 or above, and like less than a third of those are $60 retail games from this generation, so if it can get in that surprisingly exclusive club, I agree it should be fine.

"Only 90"? "Surprisingly exclusive"? The console with the highest number of 85+ games is the Xbox 360, with 184. Over 8% of these were added during 2013, so I'd argue it was relevant until then. So we're talking about 8 years of releases to hit 180 such titles (or if you'd prefer, 7 years to hit 164). PS4 is at 90 titles in 3.5 years, so that strongly suggests it's getting great games at a faster rate than any previous platform.

The above should be convincing enough, but in fact I also just hand-counted all the 85+ games through the 360's fourth July (the same age as PS4). There are only 60 such titles. So right now PS4 is beating it not just by a little bit, but by a lot. Note that Xbox One has 53 titles in the same period, so it too is far exceeded by PS4. In other words, your impressions are exactly backwards: PS4 is a high outlier, not a low one.

For legacy devices the numbers aren't really comparable, but in case you're curious here are all tracked consoles' quantity of 85+ Metacritic titles:

360: 184
PS3: 177
PS2: 144
XBX: 106
PS4:  90
GCN:  65
PS1:  56
XB1:  53
NDS:  48
Wii:  43
GBA:  35
3DS:  34
N64:  29
PSP:  29
WIU:  28
SDC:  26
PSV:  19

If we look past dedicated consoles, then iOS is the platform with the most such titles, at 464. However, grading seems less reliable for phone games. The user scores are almost uniformly far lower, unlike the noisy up-and-down in the console lists. PC follows with 421, and its critic/user ratios are more consistent too.

Note that shipping time to other regions (like US east coast and Europe) can exceed one month. So while production should be steady (not a given considering shortage of parts may fluctuate as well) actual stock arriving at stores globally at a given time varies depending on when allocations are put to further away markets.

In the US shipping almost never exceeds a month for China-sourced electronics. Though the new Panamax size has helped, it's almost always a better plan to land goods on the West Coast (21 days shipping) and use rail cross-country. And there is little quantization of delivery from carriers. Stores operate on retail week or every-other, yes, but as far as freight companies are concerned the enduser is the DC. And they schedule ad hoc.

I can't believe te first mainline game in the series will sell just 1M FW

The predictions are to sell 2m, though.

 

[LordKano]

800k PS4, 3DS down from previous expectations and potentially at or around a million.

It'd be a really big drop in total for the series for FW performance.

Hey, these are exactly my predictions. I hope he's right. Well, I hope he's wrong too, because I don't want to play the next DQ on my smartphone.

 

[Ōkami]

Dragon Quest III was the first game to sell over a million units first week and was the best selling third party game until Dragon Quest VII.

Dragon Quest VII is the only game to have sold over a million units in more than one week, its the best selling game on the PlayStation and was the best selling third party game in Japan until Dragon Quest IX.

Dragon Quest VIII is the game to have made the most money in a single week in Japan, its the best selling game on the PlayStation 2.

Dragon Quest IX had the biggest ever first week sales at the time and became the best selling third party game in Japan, it'd keep these milestones for less than 2 years, its the best selling game in the series and in turn the best selling non Pokémon RPG.


I can vouch for the what's been happening on the advertisements, PS4 version is front and center, its the one that gets the most attention.

 

[u_neek]

800k PS4, 3DS down from previous expectations and potentially at or around a million.

It'd be a really big drop in total for the series for FW performance.

What are their predictions based on?

 

[cw_sasuke]

At the end DQXI didnt make much less money DQ compared to DQIX - the PS4 version almost costs twice as much as DQIX was on DS. People play DQ all the time on mobile or as the MMO with DQX....DQXI will end up on Switch next year, in addition to a western release and probably a mobile version after that.

Obv. the 5m some people like the Enterbrain/Famitsu chef expected at some point arent happening.....but it will sell 3-4m as it should.

 

[Kanann]

I don't what's really a test for what. I don't think DQXI is going to have much of a tail on any platform, its a JRPG and, bizarrely, they moved *backwards* from DQIX by removing the multiplayer component entirely. So used or not, after the first few weeks (and pre-launch weeks, ala now) most people interested are going to jump in and that's it. Used copies vs. shipped is going to potentially result in another mess like FFXV, though, so that will depend on SE's plans here vs. how much they can get retailers to buy.

From there, as per sinobi's analysis, others (probably 3DS) are just content to wait for the switch version. 3DS in general has also slowed its ability to move software in its old age.

DQ fans who want multiplayer go DQX, they don't want to overlap themself.
Also, you can use your password in DQXI to get item in DQX LOL.

 

[Oregano]

At the end DQXI didnt make much less money DQ compared to DQIX - the PS4 version almost costs twice as much as DQIX was on DS. People play DQ all the time on mobile or as the MMO with DQX....DQXI will end up on Switch next year, in addition to a western release and probably a mobile version after that.

Obv. the 5m some people like the Enterbrain/Famitsu chef expected at some point arent happening.....but it will sell 3-4m as it should.

At the same time it almost assuredly cost a lot more to make, especially when you consider they made two entirely different versions of the game.

 

[LordKano]

At the end DQXI didnt make much less money DQ compared to DQIX - the PS4 version almost costs twice as much as DQIX was on DS. People play DQ all the time on mobile or as the MMO with DQX....DQXI will end up on Switch next year, in addition to a western release and probably a mobile version after that.

Obv. the 5m some people like the Enterbrain/Famitsu chef expected at some point arent happening.....but it will sell 3-4m as it should.

But probably needed more than twice the money to develop. I doubt it will bring more cash than DQIX, especially since it most likely won't be as successful in the west.

 

[Skullwaker]

SE dropped the ball by not having the game out by last year, I think. Sure, the PS4 is able to sell software much better than it could 1-2 years ago, but not enough to mitigate the hit that the 3DS has taken in that regard, especially now that its successor is on the market. They really just took too long to start development.

 

[kinger256]

DQXI will most likely beat DQIX in revenue though. At least there's that.

 

[Magicpaint]

SE dropped the ball by not having the game out by last year, I think. Sure, the PS4 is able to sell software much better than it could 1-2 years ago, but not enough to mitigate the hit that the 3DS has taken in that regard, especially now that its successor is on the market. They really just took too long to start development.

It only feels this way because the 3DS version was a later consideration. They probably expected much stronger market penetration for the PS4 but when the userbase didn't grow big enough to exclusively host a mainline DQ they had to consider a 3DS version. If the game had been conceived originally as a 3DS title it'd have been out much earlier.

And as a general point, I think we shouldn't draw too many conclusions based off of predictions. I too think this might fall a little short of recent DQ standards but I hope I'm wrong and we see great numbers.

 

[Oregano]

It only feels this way because the 3DS version was a later consideration. They probably expected much stronger market penetration for the PS4 but when the userbase didn't grow big enough to exclusively host a mainline DQ they had to consider a 3DS version. If the game had been conceived originally as a 3DS title it'd have been out much earlier.

And as a general point, I think we shouldn't draw too many conclusions based off of predictions. I too think this might fall a little short of recent DQ standards but I hope I'm wrong and we see great numbers.

The idea that they were genuinely going to let the 3DS come and go without a new mainline DQ game is honestly astonishing.

 

[Skullwaker]

It only feels this way because the 3DS version was a later consideration. They probably expected much stronger market penetration for the PS4 but when the userbase didn't grow big enough to exclusively host a mainline DQ they had to consider a 3DS version. If the game had been conceived originally as a 3DS title it'd have been out much earlier.

And as a general point, I think we shouldn't draw too many conclusions based off of predictions. I too think this might fall a little short of recent DQ standards but I hope I'm wrong and we see great numbers.

I agree. I'd be interested to know what the outcome would've been if DQXI was a 3DS exclusive and released a few years ago, with DQXII on the horizon for PS4/Switch.

 

[Vena]

SE dropped the ball by not having the game out by last year, I think. Sure, the PS4 is able to sell software much better than it could 1-2 years ago, but not enough to mitigate the hit that the 3DS has taken in that regard, especially now that its successor is on the market. They really just took too long to start development.

As noted above, 3DS was a late addition. This was a PS4-only title at conception but the PS4 failed to make headway and even though it has managed to achieve respectable software potential for its base, its ceiling performance is generally low and there'd have been no way to actually sustain DQ. Rather than discussing coming short of DQVII/DQVIII/DQIX, we'd be talking about DQIII.

The realities of the market became clear after the first-into-second year of the PS4, and by then making it to market with both the PS4 and 3DS versions wasn't going to be possible until now. Games take time to make, especially those that are greelit at the last moment. Problem is that in arriving so late, the title has come at a time when the 3DS is starting to wind down and its successor has already hit the market.

This is why the Switch version was probably added even before its performance was known, they needed more sources of sales because the current platforms were expected to underperform based to some degree.

The idea that they were genuinely going to let the 3DS come and go without a new mainline DQ game is honestly astonishing.

They expected far better from the PS4. Had it done better rather than our attempts at grasping at straws like "well at least its doing marginally better than the PS3", one probably could not have blamed them. But what this thread uses a coping mechanism vs. what major projects actually need are different.

 

[cw_sasuke]

At the same time it almost assuredly cost a lot more to make, especially when you consider they made two entirely different versions of the game.

But probably needed more than twice the money to develop. I doubt it will bring more cash than DQIX, especially since it most likely won't be as successful in the west.

I mean..yeah the budget for both games were likely higher, than again Level 5 working for a couple years on the DQIX probably wasnt that cheap either especially after they had to scrap the initial gameplay vision.

Thats just the way it is with more powerful hardware and higher ambitions - all the Switch games Nintendo develops will also have a higher budget than their DS/3DS games of the last two generations while not selling much more if at all.

We already saw it with Pokemon S/M there are just so many games of this type that can be sold in this market environment. I still would assume the 3DS version to have longer legs and to chart again for the Holidays.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

I expected DQXI to open somewhere between 500-600k on PS4 and 800k-900k on 3DS. I know we were talking about predictions and not actual estimates but still I would be really surprised if the PS4 version opens closer to a million.

 

[Principate]

I expected DQXI to open somewhere between 500-600k on PS4 and 800k-900k on 3DS. I know we were talking about predictions and not actual estimates but still I would be really surprised if the PS4 version opens closer to a million.

That would have been an extremely poor result for SE domestically. FFXV level.

 

[Vena]

I expected DQXI to open somewhere between 500-600k on PS4 and 800k-900k on 3DS. I know we were talking about predictions and not actual estimates but still I would be really surprised if the PS4 version opens closer to a million.

My initial expectations were in line with your PS4 numbers and more bullish on the 3DS (like 1.3-1.5m) but that was before software began to decline and Pokemon struggled despite the GO successes.

With commercials focusing almost exclusively on the PS4, and the 3DS atrophying in software engagement, I think rounding both to ~800k isn't unreasonable but would be a fairly poor result for DQ.

 

[Skullwaker]

As noted above, 3DS was a late addition. This was a PS4-only title at conception but the PS4 failed to make headway and even though it has managed to achieve respectable software potential for its base, its ceiling performance is generally low and there'd have been no way to actually sustain DQ. Rather than discussing coming short of DQVII/DQVIII/DQIX, we'd be talking about DQIII.

The realities of the market became clear after the first-into-second year of the PS4, and by then making it to market with both the PS4 and 3DS versions wasn't going to be possible until now. Games take time to make, especially those that are greelit at the last moment. Problem is that in arriving so late, the title has come at a time when the 3DS is starting to wind down and its successor has already hit the market.

This is why the Switch version was probably added even before its performance was known, they needed more sources of sales because the current platforms were expected to underperform based to some degree.

I know that. I was just saying that I wonder what a 3DS exclusive DQXI released in an alternate reality a few years ago would've been able to achieve, as well as a future PS4/Switch DQXII in 2018, comparatively to the 3DS/PS4/Switch release of DQXI we're getting now (well, down the road for the Switch version obviously).

 

[MoonFrog]

What was PS4 supposed to be?

Was the thought "Wii U is doing so bad, PS4 is a more attractive device than PS3, so PS4 will do PS3+, eating into Wii's numbers?"

But we're talking 2012 and earlier, right? So the Wii U stuff is probably not pertinent.

So just, it's more attractive than PS3?

Or is there some other reason to expect PS4 to have performed better?

 

[LordKano]

What was PS4 supposed to be?

Was the thought "Wii U is doing so bad, PS4 is a more attractive device than PS3, so PS4 will do PS3+, eating into Wii's numbers?"

But we're talking 2012 and earlier, right? So the Wii U stuff is probably not pertinent.

So just, it's more attractive than PS3?

Or is there some other reason to expect PS4 to have performed better?

PS4 is doing way better than PS3 everywhere but Japan. That's probably why they expected more than the current situation.

 

[Man God]

Sony knew what it was doing with the PS4 in Japan which is why they released it there later.

 

[Oregano]

I mean..yeah the budget for both games were likely higher, than again Level 5 working for a couple years on the DQIX probably wasnt that cheap either especially after they had to scrap the initial gameplay vision.

Thats just the way it is with more powerful hardware and higher ambitions - all the Switch games Nintendo develops will also have a higher budget than their DS/3DS games of the last two generations while not selling much more if at all.

We already saw it with Pokemon S/M there are just so many games of this type that can be sold in this market environment. I still would assume the 3DS version to have longer legs and to chart again for the Holidays.

Right the main issue is the fact that they didn't just go from DS to 3DS or even to DS to PS4 they went from DS to distinct versions for both 3DS and PS4. It's not like FFXIII when adding 360 was a relatively small cost.

 

[Skullwaker]

SE was really banking on the PS4 to revive the home console market in Japan. They didn't really have any reason to believe this, but they did, so looking at it now, their massive push for the system in comparison to their underwhelming 3DS support seems questionable. It looks as if they're going to be a bigger advocate of the Switch however.

 

[Kanann]

About development pipeline in my opinion, DQ with Orca is better then DQ with LV5.

 

[NintendosBooger]

That would have been an extremely poor result for SE domestically. FFXV level.

It's pretty obvious by making the game exclusive to PS4 originally that domestic sales prioritization came second to potential global growth, by that meaning western penetration. The strategy makes sense when the game itself possesses some western appeal intrinsically (MH, for example) but I'm at a loss as to why SE would make such a gamble with a franchise as deeply embedded in Japan as DQ.

 

[cw_sasuke]

What was PS4 supposed to be?

Was the thought "Wii U is doing so bad, PS4 is a more attractive device than PS3, so PS4 will do PS3+, eating into Wii's numbers?"

But we're talking 2012 and earlier, right? So the Wii U stuff is probably not pertinent.

So just, it's more attractive than PS3?

Or is there some other reason to expect PS4 to have performed better?

The thought process was - we are going all in with PS4 from Day 1. This wasnt the case with PS3 where alot of SE content ended up on portables and on other consoles.

This generation they really focused all on PS4 early on - Remakes, spin.offs new games they made sure from Day 1 that this will be the system you need for SE RPGs, it made only sense for Horii to follow the company strategy since he wanted to develop a big screen console DQ anyway....PS4 was pretty much the only option with WiiU bombing,PC/Xbox being a non-factor and no UE4/multi development with a handheld.

 

[LordRaptor]

"Only 90"? "Surprisingly exclusive"? The console with the highest number of 85+ games is the Xbox 360, with 184. Over 8% of these were added during 2013, so I'd argue it was relevant until then. So we're talking about 8 years of releases to hit 180 such titles (or if you'd prefer, 7 years to hit 164). PS4 is at 90 titles in 3.5 years, so that strongly suggests it's getting great games at a faster rate than any previous platform.

I don't know why you would use that methodology to come to that conclusion, because apart from the fact thats not the argument Nirolak was making, a not inconsequential number of those titles are 'remaster' games that are still contemporary enough to not suffer any form of review decay to a reviewer that played the original maybe a year or two before the remaster.

 

[Principate]

It's pretty obvious by making the game exclusive to PS4 originally that domestic sales prioritization came second to potential global growth, by that meaning western penetration. The strategy makes sense when the game itself possesses some western appeal intrinsically (MH, for example) but I'm at a loss as to why SE would make such a gamble with a franchise as deeply embedded in Japan as DQ.

Which is why SE eventually came to their senses. Somewhere all the chain someone went wait, this is a bad idea.

 

[gtj1092]

It only feels this way because the 3DS version was a later consideration. They probably expected much stronger market penetration for the PS4 but when the userbase didn't grow big enough to exclusively host a mainline DQ they had to consider a 3DS version. If the game had been conceived originally as a 3DS title it'd have been out much earlier.

And as a general point, I think we shouldn't draw too many conclusions based off of predictions. I too think this might fall a little short of recent DQ standards but I hope I'm wrong and we see great numbers.

Wait when it was finally revealed everyone was saying the ps4 version was the after thought and holding up the 3DS version which was farther ahead. But lately it's been described as the opposite. When did this change?

 

[Chris1964]

Week 30, 2017 (Jul 24 - Jul 30)

new releases

{2017.07.24}
[PS4] Typoman _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Brainseed Factory) (¥1.203)

{2017.07.27}
[3DS] Monster Hunter Stories Ver.1.2 Update <RPG> (Capcom) (¥3.990)
[PSV] Kenka Bancho Otome: Kanzenmuketsu no My Honey <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft) (¥5.980)
[PSV] Kenka Bancho Otome: Kanzenmuketsu no My Honey (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft) (¥5.500)
[PSV] Hiiro no Kakera: Omoi Iro no Kioku # <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥6.300)
[PSV] Hiiro no Kakera: Omoi Iro no Kioku (Limited Edition) <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥9.800)
[PSV] Hiiro no Kakera: Omoi Iro no Kioku (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥6.000)
[PSV] Wagamama High Spec # <ADV> (iMel) (¥4.980)
[PSV] Wagamama High Spec (First Press Limited Edition) <ADV> (iMel) (¥7.980)
[PSV] Wagamama High Spec (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (iMel) (¥3.980)
[PSV] Grisaia no Kajitsu: Side Episode <ADV> (Prototype) (¥4.000)
[PSV] Grisaia no Kajitsu: Side Episode (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Prototype) (¥3.333)
[PSV] Utsusemi no Mawari <ADV> (Matatabi) (¥6.800)
[PSV] Utsusemi no Mawari (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Matatabi) (¥6.400)
[PS4] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare Remastered <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥5.900)
[PS4] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare Remastered (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥5.900)
[PS4] Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm Legacy <Naruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm \ Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 2 \ Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 3> <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.800)
[PS4] Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm Legacy <Naruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm \ Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 2 \ Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 3> (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.800)
[PS4] DiRT 4 <RCE> (Ubisoft) (¥7.980)
[PS4] DiRT 4 (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RCE> (Ubisoft) (¥7.100)
[XB1] DiRT 4 <RCE> (Ubisoft) (¥7.980)
[XB1] DiRT 4 (&#949 _Download Version_ |DL| <RCE> (Ubisoft) (¥7.100)

{2017.07.28}
[NSW] Ultra Hyperball _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Springloaded) (¥907)

{2017.07.29}
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time # <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥5.980)
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time (New Nintendo 2DS LL Dragon Quest Liquid Metal Slime Edition) <BUN> (Nintendo) (¥22.480)
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥5.980)
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time # <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥8.980)
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time (PlayStation 4 Dragon Quest Lotto Edition) <BUN> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥39.980)
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥8.980)
___

YSO predictions

01. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time < 1,1m (average 1m)
02. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time < 1,1m (average 1m)
03. [NSW] Splatoon 2 < 170k (average 140k)

 

[Oregano]

Wait when it was finally revealed everyone was saying the ps4 version was the after thought and holding up the 3DS version which was farther ahead. But lately it's been described as the opposite. When did this change?

When SE said outright that the original plan was for only the PS4 game.

 

[MoonFrog]

I think it mostly makes sense:

1- the presumption, despite Nintendo's attempts to make a device attractive to Japan, that consoles are "doomed" there and mobile is the ~only future, is a common one (and for them, partly a self-fulfilling presumption), and not without reason.

2-After Vita, Sony is probably never going to make a device with Japan in particular in mind again: they make PlayStation for the rest of the world where it does well. I'm sure that many developers would prefer Japan be on the same page wrt PlayStation.

3-PlayStation has an ecosystem where new forms of monetization are more tried and true than on Nintendo portables.

4-Developers often simply want to develop for hardware with more grunt or that's stationary (Horii's professed reason for going PS4).

What I don't get is expecting PS4 to have done markedly better than it did in Japan. I guess, as suggested above, it is a case of wanting to make it true that it did? And then on that failing to happen, things like DQ going 3DS happened?

I mean, that is, iirc, the attitude Nomura or someone at Square expressed about PS4, but I didn't think we took that at face value...

 

[Chris1964]

Yeah, it baffles me. Every week we have people talking about them like a sales report just came out. They've been way off many times.

What's the last time they've been way off? Monster Hunter Stories comes in mind and that was way back. They are close with almost everything.

 

[Oregano]

I think it mostly makes sense:

1- the presumption, despite Nintendo's attempts to make a device attractive to Japan, that consoles are "doomed" there and mobile is the ~only future, is a common one (and for them, partly a self-fulfilling presumption), and not without reason.

2-After Vita, Sony is probably never going to make a device with Japan in particular in mind again: they make PlayStation for the rest of the world where it does well. I'm sure that many developers would prefer Japan be on the same page wrt PlayStation.

3-PlayStation has an ecosystem where new forms of monetization are more tried and true than on Nintendo portables.

4-Developers often simply want to develop for hardware with more grunt or that's stationary (Horii's professed reason for going PS4).

What I don't get is expecting PS4 to have done markedly better than it did in Japan. I guess, as suggested above, it is a case of wanting to make it true that it did? And then on that failing to happen, things like DQ going 3DS happened?

I mean, that is, iirc, the attitude Nomura or someone at Square expressed about PS4, but I didn't think we took that at face value...

Horii actually said people would get bored of mobile and go back to home consoles.

 

[Sterok]

What's the last time they've been way off? Monster Hunter Stories comes in mind and that was way back. They are close with almost everything.

Mario Maker 3DS doubled their predictions.

 

[MoonFrog]

Horii actually said people would get bored of mobile and go back to home consoles.

Interesting.

 

[Chris1964]

Mario Maker 3DS doubled their predictions.

That's 8 months before and an exception like I said before, they can't be right with everything.

Mario Maker 3DS beat everyone's expectations in here too.

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

Any hint of the shipment number for Switches this past week??? Sounds like a lot of stores had a few big lotteries so it surely must be over 100k?

 

[Zedark]

What's the last time they've been way off? Monster Hunter Stories comes in mind and that was way back. They are close with almost everything.

Didn't they predict like 60k for ARMS? That'd be the most recent one I could think of.