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Are you inside Nintendo's headquarters?
By the way, what should we expect of Fire Emblem Warriors ? Alongside Pokkén Tournament DX these are the two "big" releases of next month. I know Hyrule Warriors barely did 70k FW and musous are kinda dying, but on the other hand, it's Fire Emblem, and the brand is as its peak right now in terms of popularity.
I expected a drop due to the info from BiC, but not this big. I suppose we'll see what happens after MHXX is out.
I guess maybe similar numbers to Zelda (not including the 3DS one).
Why?
Because knee-jerk reactions often give the most informed conclusions.
Minsc
Gold Member
I don't imagine the bump will be bigger than ARMS do you? Even if so, probably not bigger than Splatoon 2 I'd imagine? Whatever it is, I expect it will come in go in a week, it's going to be a drop in the bucket compared to MHW regardless.
ethomaz
Banned
Yes.
Thinking a bit about digital I believe 3DS + PS4 can reach 4m... I was saying 3.6-3.7m retail... add Switch.
DQXI has high changes to become the best selling DQ game in Japan... maybe crossing 5m.
Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
Not sure buying out Apple is realistic.
Maybe you should go back and look at the initial sales numbers for Yo-kai Watch.
If with a miracle PS4 version reaches 1,6-1,7m at retail 3DS will end close to 2,5m.
Vital Tundra
Member
Literally blew their stock on Splatoons launch. Man I hope they can handle stock for Nov Dec.
Skittzo0413
Member
It should be a bigger bump than ARMS simply due to the MHXX bundles. But probably nowhere near Splatoon 2, yeah. 40-50k seems reasonable, especially with the Amazon restocks we've been hearing about.
The big question obviously is how much of that is bundling/stockpiling and how much is representative of the baseline. Since they said the increased production would be seen in the Fall I'm a bit worried that the baseline until "Fall" will still be closer to what we have this week.
Minsc
Gold Member
While there have been no numbers attached to the "extremely limited" bundles, that is sorta making me think the hardware bundles will be under 10k, probably closer to 5k. Perhaps that is too pessimistic? I really don't know how to interpret the range of "very limited" to numbers, other than very low (which 20k+ doesn't sound like to me, but I could be totally off here).
Lol, nah I get that. It's just frustrating that these issues are holding them back and their hands are practically tied. I know there's little they can do to rectify this. It's a shame.
5K would be so low as to make the whole thing pointless IMO.
Geez, I didn't even notice that SnackWorld drop. I'm skeptical of its legs. Though we'll need to watch it for a few more weeks. The opening was definitely stronger than I was expecting
Like your previous estimates for Switch stock during July and August you are totally off if you think Nintendo would bother to make a bundle and ship only 10k.
They mentioned it was very limited earlier on, but last weekend BIC had another shipment of them available online. It could be that Nintendo has since upped the number by a 20k or so. I think we'll see numbers that will be much better than the ARMS week, ie about 50k-60k, and that is assuming that the new baseline is not all that much higher than it was before the Splatoon 2 and Obon excesses.
Skittzo0413
Member
I would imagine somewhere around or over 10k, but I'm also treating this week's numbers as a bit of an anomaly due to the stock supplied over the last 4 weeks likely siphoning from this week's numbers. So I'd expect the baseline to be closer to 30k normally, adding the bundles gives you around 40k, and if they want to push MHXX anymore they may have stockpiled a few additional consoles too.
EDIT: Or maybe way higher than 10k, I really have no idea. I just don't think any lower would make much sense but you never know.
Yeah, one week of lower sales doesn't disprove a trend of a higher sales anymore than a week of random higher numbers proves a higher baseline. Unfortunately we will have to be patient and see what the coming weeks bring before declaring a new baseline.
Yokai Watch's cartoon didn't start airing when the game came out, nor did it have drops like this.
Look to Little Battlers X for a better comparison.
Eolz
Member
Expecting a bit more than Hyrule Warriors at launch but not much tbh. It's still a Warriors game.
Gotdatmoney
Member
Why are we anticipating low bundle numbers? Why would Nintendo bother wasting time creating special printed hardware and packaging for 10k units when they can't even stock the normal edition?
I thought Kirby with feet was freaky!
Gotdatmoney
Member
What did you predict?
Edit: nm 900k
I think it's pretty known early predictions for DQ11 PS4 were way out
If you told me 1.5m would happen I'd have been skeptical. I think I was predicting 1.2-1.3 as a ceiling.
Thought the 3DS version would eat its lunch.
It's in there, 899.999
How a game that is predicted to sell around 80-100k at launch could have a that significant bundle ?
Jawbreaker
Member
Hah, it definitely exceeded expectations. I'm really happy it's selling so well on the PS4.
Gotdatmoney
Member
See edit.
Monster Hunter bundle could be anywhere between 20 and 50k but I could see extra shipments for Splatoon bundle because of the update. Only the amazon bundle will be close to 5k if it follows previous bundles from them.
lyrick
Member
Why didn't you include the 3DS predictions as well?
Spieler Eins
Member
Maybe you should look at the odds of catching lightning in a bottle twice.
Because that wasn't part of the point on my reply and it would make the post even bigger, it's already ugly as it is.
They are a click away and most of them are ~3mllion
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
Hello old friend
theprodigy
Member
rofl at duckroll's "it's not actually releasing this year" prediction
Weird sentence about level 5
Probably the most successful company in Japan about new IP results in the last decade
ethomaz
Banned
lol at the reply, as if I did not quote myself too.
I'm not the one concerned every week and talking about miracles.