This console will not release in 2019, people who ever thought otherwise are still kidding themselves. You're only looking at one part of the picture, because the tech is available doesn't mean it's available to cram into a $500 box when you're looking at least 12TF GPUs as well. A card that powerful now still runs you $1000 bucks, we're not looking at that much of a fall in a 12 month span when these would enter production.
You are ignoring 7nm factor here and possibility of multidiegpu. CURRENTLY 12TF gpus cost a lot because they are made on 14nm node and they are single die.
What AMD will try with Navi will be 7nm and multidie gpu which would
significantly reduce price and size of 12TFgpu in apu. As i said in my previous post only way consoles will not be released in 2019 is when 7nm process will be delayed but so far everything looks like is on track and as i stated main supplier
TSMC already is doing chips in volume on 7nm. Multidie gpu on other hand should also lower yields issues so as well price per finished unit as not many chips will be bad due to small sizes.
Second important part is volume of production and R&D costs. Usually a lot of gpu price is R&D and that cost needs to be adjusted per sold gpu. Which means the more gpus you sell the lower cost can be. Then you need to remember that both Sony and MS are helping with funding GPU for their consoles so R&D cost is significantly lower compared to normal gpu price.
So you add up:
- volume
- shared R&D cost
- 7nm
- possibly multidie gpu
And it is perfectly possible to achieve great gpu for next gen consoles. Only difference will be clock speed.
Mind you also that 12-13TF is current almsot 2 year old limit for architecture. When 7nm cards release i have no doubt strongest gpus will reach 25TF which would put 12-13Tf in midrange.
What LOL? Vega 64 alone does 12.66 @499, with VEGA 56 @ $399 MSRP capable of 10.5 & that was well over a year ago. Current consumer prices due to mining have little affect on manufactaturing cost as well. With the new Navi tech already being sampled & tested, they'll have no problem with late 2019/2020.
Navi is not being sampled. Rumor goes AMD will first release Vega on 7nm for companies by end of this year while Navi will be song of 2019.
how can people rest so assured about what will happen in the future. I have trouble predicting what will happen from day to day.
If you follow technology you can easily predict events and tactic used to ensure best possible scenario to ensure most units sold. If you know great "stop" that will happen right after 7nm, MS and Sony are competing for same market then you can easily put yourself in their shoes and try to answer simple question. When it is right to release new gen console ?
Sony would love to milk PS4 for few next years, MS on other hand is already in bad performance situation and they need solid PR boost.
So as MS when would you release new console ? Answer when 7nm is ready, first holidays. Which means as long as Sony isn't dumb they don't want to release next gen console 1 or 2 years after because they will loose initial PR boost from "wow factor" as they won't be able to get better tech than MS in next 1-2 years.
Couple that with rumors about traditional gens being thing of the past and mobile format of upgrades you can easily see them both releaseing b2b consoles holiday 2019. What is more important we already have legit information about devkits being in hands of developers for some time already supposed 1,5 year before release of those consoles which would be normal time mind you using previous devkits situation and release dates of consoles.
So it is not like those companies don't want to keep as long as possible generation they just can't give away initial shock reaction because this causes huge impact on later performance. Best case scenario of that was X360/PS3 era where x360 release almost full year before PS3 and PS3 lost all its shock factor on graphics despite claims and struggled for most of gen to catch up to X360.
Also 2020 or 2021 would be reasonable date IF there was noticeable improvement on performance front coming through later. BUT THERE ISN'T. 7nm is single biggest jump in years and there is nothing in next 3-4 years that would give you such strong boost.