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Sony: Next update to PlayStation is 3 years away
- Thread starter GoldenEye98
- Start date
ThatStupidLion
Member
Maybe spring/fall 2021? Need that extra year to add in hybrid capability! 
Trogdor1123
Member
So 2021 then I guess. I was thinking 2020 but 2021 isn't too bad.
GoldenEye98
posts news as their odd job
When you think of it....they are in a strong position this gen and every new gen presents a blank slate of sorts. I don't blame them wanting to wait...
TGO
Hype Train conductor. Works harder than it steams.
I saw so many people saying he meant they would support the PS4 till 2021 and PS5 would be at E3, and they was correcting everyone who thought exactly what this article says.
It didn't make sense for Sony to announce the PS4 sale by date.
Glad it's cleared up now.
It didn't make sense for Sony to announce the PS4 sale by date.
Glad it's cleared up now.
RokkanStoned
Member
I don't feel done with PS4 yet and if there's not a huge enough jump, I don't see the point releasing PS5.
Hendrick's
If only my penis was as big as my GamerScore!
I'm still betting on Fall 2020.
GoldenEye98
posts news as their odd job
Yeah hoping this means we'll get slim revisions for PS4 and PS4 Pro.... espically Pro.
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Yup, I can definitely see GTA6 happening this gen now.
Koala Driving a Ferrari
Member
This would be great news for me. A slim and quiet revision of the Pro is what I'm holding out for (before upgrading my second gen model). Hopefully we'll get one this year or next.
GoldenEye98
posts news as their odd job
I'm thinking next year when 7nm will likely be available for console makers...
I want a Pro as well but Microsoft engineered the X so well it makes the Pro a bit less desirable from a hardware standpoint.
it_wasn't_me
Banned
So, fall 2020. Because of this, 2020 is missing :
Dontero
Banned
Why are people taking at face value Sony employe talking about their future products ?
Their goals is to sell for now PS4. Which means regardless of their plans for PS5 they will say PS5 could be even decades away because they want maximalize PS4 sales instead suggesting people they should wait for PS5.
IT is basically saying what Nintendo said about WiiU when there were releasing Switch. That they will still support WiiU same as 3DS. Not even a year later and WiiU support is completely dead with 3DS support dying as well as Nintendo moves everything to Switch trying to maximalize platform potential (forcing people to move from 3DS to Switch)
When will next generation begin will be dictated by technological progress and competition.
What that tells us ?
7nm node is effectively done and TSMC already is using it to make stuff while other big one GF is launching mass scale production early next year. This will also be timed with release of both Zen2 processors and Navi GPUs from AMD.
Thing is after than 7nm upgrade there is nothing on horizon to provide another jump like that. So by releasing in at the end of 2019 you are effectively locking up spec of consoles for next 5-7yeras and you are first to market.
Which means both MS and Sony will release their consoles when 7nm will be ready along with AMD new architectures which means end of next year. What is more important both Sony and MS will be looking at situation where they will be using effectively same architecture for the first time ever going from previous gen to next gen, which means they will be able to even release PS5 games that could potentially work on PS4s same way PC games work on lower hardware and it is something which both MS and Sony looks for going by some interesting interviews.
By 2020 or 2021 there will be literally nothing that would improve performance of console which compared to 2019. For significant upgrade you would need to wait at least to 2022 which would be almost 9 years and longest gen ever.
Other than 7nm delay (which seems impossible at this point) i don't see either MS or Sony waiting for 2020 or later.
Look at dates closely. March 2019, March 2021 etc
March 2019 effectively means 2018 sales as it is from march 2018 to march 2019. Which in this case means that they will be releasing console by holiday 2019 which would be in this chart march 2020 which would nicely correlate with chart because 2019 sales would still see PS4 nicely selling while they just release PS5 but 2021 sales on other hand would fall down because people would be moving from PS4 to PS5 and that means overall less games sold (which is prime income method for Sony)
Their goals is to sell for now PS4. Which means regardless of their plans for PS5 they will say PS5 could be even decades away because they want maximalize PS4 sales instead suggesting people they should wait for PS5.
IT is basically saying what Nintendo said about WiiU when there were releasing Switch. That they will still support WiiU same as 3DS. Not even a year later and WiiU support is completely dead with 3DS support dying as well as Nintendo moves everything to Switch trying to maximalize platform potential (forcing people to move from 3DS to Switch)
When will next generation begin will be dictated by technological progress and competition.
What that tells us ?
7nm node is effectively done and TSMC already is using it to make stuff while other big one GF is launching mass scale production early next year. This will also be timed with release of both Zen2 processors and Navi GPUs from AMD.
Thing is after than 7nm upgrade there is nothing on horizon to provide another jump like that. So by releasing in at the end of 2019 you are effectively locking up spec of consoles for next 5-7yeras and you are first to market.
Which means both MS and Sony will release their consoles when 7nm will be ready along with AMD new architectures which means end of next year. What is more important both Sony and MS will be looking at situation where they will be using effectively same architecture for the first time ever going from previous gen to next gen, which means they will be able to even release PS5 games that could potentially work on PS4s same way PC games work on lower hardware and it is something which both MS and Sony looks for going by some interesting interviews.
By 2020 or 2021 there will be literally nothing that would improve performance of console which compared to 2019. For significant upgrade you would need to wait at least to 2022 which would be almost 9 years and longest gen ever.
Other than 7nm delay (which seems impossible at this point) i don't see either MS or Sony waiting for 2020 or later.
Look at dates closely. March 2019, March 2021 etc
March 2019 effectively means 2018 sales as it is from march 2018 to march 2019. Which in this case means that they will be releasing console by holiday 2019 which would be in this chart march 2020 which would nicely correlate with chart because 2019 sales would still see PS4 nicely selling while they just release PS5 but 2021 sales on other hand would fall down because people would be moving from PS4 to PS5 and that means overall less games sold (which is prime income method for Sony)
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PuppetMaster
Member
Good. No need to rush.
daibaron
Banned
2021 is 8 years, longer than with the ps3! 5 years after the pro! 3 more years with fucking jaguar holding back game design! 11-12 Tflops on 2021 will be shitty, with the pc cards going around 30 tflops easily.
I really hope MS releases their new console before 2021 and cuts sonys lead.
I really hope MS releases their new console before 2021 and cuts sonys lead.
Iced Arcade
Member
2021 called it. not surprised or bothered by it. now I want a pro slim
selling software and subscriptions is where the money is, not hardware sales.
selling software and subscriptions is where the money is, not hardware sales.
Mattyp
Gold Member
This console will not release in 2019, people who ever thought otherwise are still kidding themselves. You're only looking at one part of the picture, because the tech is available doesn't mean it's available to cram into a $500 box when you're looking at least 12TF GPUs as well. A card that powerful now still runs you $1000 bucks, we're not looking at that much of a fall in a 12 month span when these would enter production.
octiny
Banned
What LOL? Vega 64 alone does 12.66 @499, with VEGA 56 @ $399 MSRP capable of 10.5 & that was well over a year ago. Current consumer prices due to mining have little affect on manufactaturing cost as well. With the new Navi tech already being sampled & tested, they'll have no problem with late 2019/2020.
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Mattyp
Gold Member
Everyone on the planet doesn't live in the U.S a Vega64 here is $1,150 from any retailer. So Sony will be able to launch a console with everything else included, watercooling, cpu, ram, hdd etc for $499 within just over 12 months? And where's a Vega64 available at $499 even in the states so I can grab one. No it doesn't have anything to do with manufacturing cost, but they still need to be capable of pumping out millions of very complex chips at what, 1/3 the price they are now to make the rest of the console viable in 12 months.
I'll take a bet with anyone here for $50 bucks we won't see a 2019 release.
octiny
Banned
It doesn't matter how much it costs from a retailer, it matters how much the actual manufacturing cost is. Which at this point, is much cheaper well over a year later. Two completely different areas. Consumer demand means jack. So yes, it has EVERYTHING to do with manufacturing cost as deals are cut ahead of time in that regard. That's without taking into account that Navi tech is going to be a huge jump in performance as noted by AMD in the same way Ryzen was. All systems are planned accordingly with manufacturing windows & AMD has been on track with it's recent Ryzen APU's & soon to be NAVI tech. I'll take your $50 for a late 2019/spring 2020 (at the latest) launch.
Edit: You can come find me when they announce the majority of the info at next years E3. I'll use the $$$ towards my pre-order
.On a side note, smart move by Sony, it's never good for any company to give any "official" info on the next iteration while it's current product is still selling well.
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LordOfChaos
Member
2021 ain't bad. Reveal late 2020, launch early 2021 maybe.
My guess was 2020 for the line up of several technologies, but a delay past that also increases fab node maturities, more mature = more efficient = higher clocks for your target wattage.
Maybe PSN also isn't ready for it, and they're expecting most PS4s to stay online for a while.
My guess was 2020 for the line up of several technologies, but a delay past that also increases fab node maturities, more mature = more efficient = higher clocks for your target wattage.
Maybe PSN also isn't ready for it, and they're expecting most PS4s to stay online for a while.
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FriedCarbonyte
Member
This is where many of us say, “I told you so.” 2018/2019 was always a pipe dream and didn’t make sense from a business/hardware perspective.
bitbydeath
Member
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
YES! No way they will honestly wait until Fall of 2021. Unless we think they will sell the PS5 starting in Spring of 2021......
GenericUser
Member
I really dig how they tell their competitors when they'll release their next console. This is dominance.
Tarin02543
Member
What are the chances of a ps4 slim 2.0 ? I might get that.
S
SLoWMoTIoN
Unconfirmed Member
I don't buy this. Expect Ps5 by November of next year.
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
I wouldn't expect Sony to say anything different.
I have 1 xbox friend thinking of trading in for a Pro and he has asked me more then once should I do it now or wait for the PS5.
If Sony hinted at a possible PS5 in 18 months it would kill PS4 sales right now.
I have 1 xbox friend thinking of trading in for a Pro and he has asked me more then once should I do it now or wait for the PS5.
If Sony hinted at a possible PS5 in 18 months it would kill PS4 sales right now.
ReadyPlayer2
Neo Member
I think the PS4 has a lot more life to it
FloatingIslands
Member
I read 'Sony: Next update to PlayStation 3 is years away'
Dontero
Banned
You are ignoring 7nm factor here and possibility of multidiegpu. CURRENTLY 12TF gpus cost a lot because they are made on 14nm node and they are single die.
What AMD will try with Navi will be 7nm and multidie gpu which would significantly reduce price and size of 12TFgpu in apu. As i said in my previous post only way consoles will not be released in 2019 is when 7nm process will be delayed but so far everything looks like is on track and as i stated main supplier TSMC already is doing chips in volume on 7nm. Multidie gpu on other hand should also lower yields issues so as well price per finished unit as not many chips will be bad due to small sizes.
Second important part is volume of production and R&D costs. Usually a lot of gpu price is R&D and that cost needs to be adjusted per sold gpu. Which means the more gpus you sell the lower cost can be. Then you need to remember that both Sony and MS are helping with funding GPU for their consoles so R&D cost is significantly lower compared to normal gpu price.
So you add up:
- volume
- shared R&D cost
- 7nm
- possibly multidie gpu
And it is perfectly possible to achieve great gpu for next gen consoles. Only difference will be clock speed.
Mind you also that 12-13TF is current almsot 2 year old limit for architecture. When 7nm cards release i have no doubt strongest gpus will reach 25TF which would put 12-13Tf in midrange.
Navi is not being sampled. Rumor goes AMD will first release Vega on 7nm for companies by end of this year while Navi will be song of 2019.
how can people rest so assured about what will happen in the future. I have trouble predicting what will happen from day to day.
If you follow technology you can easily predict events and tactic used to ensure best possible scenario to ensure most units sold. If you know great "stop" that will happen right after 7nm, MS and Sony are competing for same market then you can easily put yourself in their shoes and try to answer simple question. When it is right to release new gen console ?
Sony would love to milk PS4 for few next years, MS on other hand is already in bad performance situation and they need solid PR boost.
So as MS when would you release new console ? Answer when 7nm is ready, first holidays. Which means as long as Sony isn't dumb they don't want to release next gen console 1 or 2 years after because they will loose initial PR boost from "wow factor" as they won't be able to get better tech than MS in next 1-2 years.
Couple that with rumors about traditional gens being thing of the past and mobile format of upgrades you can easily see them both releaseing b2b consoles holiday 2019. What is more important we already have legit information about devkits being in hands of developers for some time already supposed 1,5 year before release of those consoles which would be normal time mind you using previous devkits situation and release dates of consoles.
So it is not like those companies don't want to keep as long as possible generation they just can't give away initial shock reaction because this causes huge impact on later performance. Best case scenario of that was X360/PS3 era where x360 release almost full year before PS3 and PS3 lost all its shock factor on graphics despite claims and struggled for most of gen to catch up to X360.
Also 2020 or 2021 would be reasonable date IF there was noticeable improvement on performance front coming through later. BUT THERE ISN'T. 7nm is single biggest jump in years and there is nothing in next 3-4 years that would give you such strong boost.
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diablos991
Can’t stump the diablos
The PS4 will feel long in the tooth if we go 3 more years without a console revision.
MS should take note and exploit their delay.
MS should take note and exploit their delay.
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A.Romero
Member
Sony can't "bluff" with forecasts. It's illegal. There have been many threads about this in the last few weeks due to baseless rumours.
Let's see a named developer stating that they have PS5 devkits or whatever. If we want to think PS5 would be released next year, games should be in development right now and as far as we know, that's not the case unless you would like to state that TLoU2 is going to be a PS5 game (I highly doubt there won't be an exclusive PS4 TLoU) and that Death Stranding is a PS5 game (which could be but it's not what has been stated so far).
Let's see a named developer stating that they have PS5 devkits or whatever. If we want to think PS5 would be released next year, games should be in development right now and as far as we know, that's not the case unless you would like to state that TLoU2 is going to be a PS5 game (I highly doubt there won't be an exclusive PS4 TLoU) and that Death Stranding is a PS5 game (which could be but it's not what has been stated so far).
Lionel Richie
Member
2020 just makes total sense. It's the 25th anniversary of the Playstation family in the west and come on. 25th anniversary? Playstation 5? 2020?! It needs to happen.
Eliciel
Member
Don't you ever forget that Sony as all other companies are about profit/loss considerations. The answer is very easy: In 2020-2021 the general costs will be lowered by a lot and if they manage to add a few extra specifics for console game onto the chips as with PS4Pro / Xbox OneX, it might be a very attractive deal for Sony to wait.
Overall, it seems that the PS4Pro will be content driven and provided all studios deliver at full speed in the next 3 years what is there to fear? Would you say no to more games coming from ND, SSM, SuckerPunch etc.? I would welcome every single game and enjoy it thoroughly with the graphical fidelity of GOW and Horizon. I think there is an awful lot of improvement they can achieve if they follow the path of Uncharted 4, GOW and Horizon.
Sony simply did an analysis how long Xbox will take to catch up in terms of game offer and they simply came to the conclusion that it will take at least 2-3 years until Xbox delivers great exclusivity content. For all other issues the customer base of PS4 will do the rest. There are simply twice as much PS4/PS4pro out there in the open field - easy quick math.
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Dontero
Banned
I already included that in my post.
- volume
- shared R&D costs
- 7nm for cpu and gpu
- possibility of multidie gpu
Secondly when 7nm releases, 12 TF will become midrange quickly. Back in 2013 PS4 GPU was solid midrange only better gpus from AMD were 7970 slightly faster from same gen and new 290/290X which was new high end.
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Real intersting part imo is that both MS and Sony will be choosing again AMD which means they had around solid 5-6 years to come up with what they want. Which also means they maybe come up with some custom design in vein of ALUs on PS4 GPU which was way ahead of amd gpus. And this was basically when they bought up parts off shelves with very minimal changes. Maybe some custom hardware for raytracing ? maybe some other fun stuff that could be standardized thanks to total AMD control over console market.
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