ethomaz
Banned
Hello.
This will be a thread to have some talk about the sales and estimates of the Polyphony Digital's Gran Turismo Sport, a driving/racer simulation game for PlayStation 4.
Polyphony Digital Changed from Sell-in to Sell-through reports
The company changed it sales reports recently where they no more release Sell-in sales each title in the franchise choosing to Sell-thought sales for the franchise. The time of the update is not defined so you can it next quarter or just when it reaches a new milestone (like 90 million).
Below you can see the latest report:
Actual Sell-through vs old Sell-in comparison
I saw a lot of mistakes made trying to comparing these different type of reports that ended with wrong claims like "GTS sold only 3.3m as of May 5, 2018" when in fact we don't know how much it sold but of course we can draw some conclusions.
Let's see what PD reported:
We can only guess how much Sell-through for Sep 30, 2017 (or Sell-in for May 5, 2018) and estimate the sales of GTS as of May 5, 2018:
Actual Sell-through from some countries
It is a simple idea.
Using the know sales of countries posted above we can compared and draw some estimates using Profiles found here: https://www.gran-turismo.com/br/gtsport/user/.
UK
484,933 units sold as of End of 2017
431,622 profiles as of Jan 24,, 2018
Profiles are lower than sales at that period in UK even if we remove the 24 additional days of profiles.
Perhaps due copies of the game not being used due end of the year holiday/gift.
JP
193.741 units sold as of End of 2017 (no digital included)
260,157 profiles as of Jan 24, 2018
That is a bit hard to compare due the additional 24 days of profiles and the lack of digital sales... if we account digital sales and remove these 24 days of profiles perhaps it could be a really close call between sales and profiles in Japan... even not removing these 24 days of profiles we are looking at max 20% difference between profiles and sales.
Germany
> 200k units sold as of Nov 30, 2017
369,865 profiles as of Jan 24, 2018
Here I can't get any hint because the date period is too longer and > 200k and < 500k is not something I can work with.
Estimates based on profiles as of Dec 20, 2021
If we get use the actual profile/sales ratio for the countries above and extrapolate to that date we will have the actual scenario:
UK: ~1.1m units sold (90% of the profiles)
JP: ~675k units sold (80% of the profiles)
JP and UK profiles accounts for about 15% of the Worldwide profiles.
Using that info we can draw a estimate for Worldwide sales:
WW: ~11,833,333 (estimate)
Of course that is an estimate and it can be lower or higher but we can start to compare actual sales from countries with profiles to become more accurate with with these estimates.
If you know more data about sales across the world I will be happy to add to the OP.
Overall Profiles as of Dec 20, 2021
Profiles by Country as of Dec 20, 2021
For reference I have extracted profiles date in the follow dates:
Notes
This will be a thread to have some talk about the sales and estimates of the Polyphony Digital's Gran Turismo Sport, a driving/racer simulation game for PlayStation 4.
Polyphony Digital Changed from Sell-in to Sell-through reports
The company changed it sales reports recently where they no more release Sell-in sales each title in the franchise choosing to Sell-thought sales for the franchise. The time of the update is not defined so you can it next quarter or just when it reaches a new milestone (like 90 million).
Below you can see the latest report:
With sell-through sales totaling 80.4 million units worldwide*, Gran Turismo has become an international sensation, with strong followings in Europe and North America in particular. It burst onto the video game scene in 1997, steadily evolving alongside the PlayStation® console, and continues to promote the enjoyment of driving to people of all ages all over the world.
*as of May 5, 2018
Actual Sell-through vs old Sell-in comparison
I saw a lot of mistakes made trying to comparing these different type of reports that ended with wrong claims like "GTS sold only 3.3m as of May 5, 2018" when in fact we don't know how much it sold but of course we can draw some conclusions.
Let's see what PD reported:
- 77.02 Million Sell-in as of September 30, 2017.
- 80.4 Million Sell-through as of May 5, 2018.
We can only guess how much Sell-through for Sep 30, 2017 (or Sell-in for May 5, 2018) and estimate the sales of GTS as of May 5, 2018:
- 76.5 Million Sell-through as of Sep 30, 2017 = 3.9 Million Sold-through for GTS as of May 5, 2018 (estimate)
- 76.0 Million Sell-through as of Sep 30, 2017 = 4.4 Million Sold-through for GTS as of May 5, 2018 (estimate)
- 75.5 Million Sell-through as of Sep 30, 2017 = 4.9 Million Sold-through for GTS as of May 5, 2018 (estimate)
Actual Sell-through from some countries
- Japan: 193.741 units as of End of 2017 (no digital included)
- UK: 484,933 units as of End of 2017
- Germany: > 100k as of Oct 31, 2017
- Germany: > 200k as of Nov 30, 2017
It is a simple idea.
Using the know sales of countries posted above we can compared and draw some estimates using Profiles found here: https://www.gran-turismo.com/br/gtsport/user/.
UK
484,933 units sold as of End of 2017
431,622 profiles as of Jan 24,, 2018
Profiles are lower than sales at that period in UK even if we remove the 24 additional days of profiles.
Perhaps due copies of the game not being used due end of the year holiday/gift.
JP
193.741 units sold as of End of 2017 (no digital included)
260,157 profiles as of Jan 24, 2018
That is a bit hard to compare due the additional 24 days of profiles and the lack of digital sales... if we account digital sales and remove these 24 days of profiles perhaps it could be a really close call between sales and profiles in Japan... even not removing these 24 days of profiles we are looking at max 20% difference between profiles and sales.
Germany
> 200k units sold as of Nov 30, 2017
369,865 profiles as of Jan 24, 2018
Here I can't get any hint because the date period is too longer and > 200k and < 500k is not something I can work with.
Estimates based on profiles as of Dec 20, 2021
If we get use the actual profile/sales ratio for the countries above and extrapolate to that date we will have the actual scenario:
UK: ~1.1m units sold (90% of the profiles)
JP: ~675k units sold (80% of the profiles)
JP and UK profiles accounts for about 15% of the Worldwide profiles.
Using that info we can draw a estimate for Worldwide sales:
WW: ~11,833,333 (estimate)
Of course that is an estimate and it can be lower or higher but we can start to compare actual sales from countries with profiles to become more accurate with with these estimates.
If you know more data about sales across the world I will be happy to add to the OP.
Overall Profiles as of Dec 20, 2021
- Total profiles: 15,673,020
- Total GTS profiles: 15,157,366
- Total Beta only profiles: 515,640 * Beta profiles turn in GTS profiles after play the final game
- Total status 255 profiles: 14
- Deleted profiles: 36,981 * profiles that where removed due unknown reasons (banned?)
Profiles by Country as of Dec 20, 2021
Code:
us 2295934
gb 1232029
de 1112769
fr 1068191
jp 844389
es 786572
it 744511
ru 716805
br 563287
sa 407591
au 391347
ca 342569
nl 324317
pl 318609
hk 296492
be 239388
pt 210678
ar 203572
mx 173419
kr 143436
cl 125885
tw 123313
tr 122770
gr 120932
cz 120793
za 120123
ch 112547
ua 108922
se 102513
dk 101883
fi 101360
ae 100584
at 99758
no 89860
in 88016
nz 86179
co 81071
hr 79233
my 74993
hu 70649
ie 65472
ro 56415
id 51239
sk 48747
th 47938
sg 47020
pe 43344
cn 42724
bg 40925
cr 30307
kw 26205
il 23360
om 18994
si 18006
qa 17651
uy 16365
ec 16282
gt 14802
pa 14694
lu 11385
bh 9366
cy 7842
lb 7422
mt 6419
sv 6110
bo 5723
py 5381
is 4648
hn 3858
ni 1433
For reference I have extracted profiles date in the follow dates:
Code:
Jan 24, 2018: GTS 3481248, Beta 726004, Total 4207252
Jan 26, 2018: GTS 3504429, Beta 721183, Total 4225612
Jan 30, 2018: GTS 3548375, Beta 721183, Total 4269558
Feb 5, 2018: GTS 3621652, Beta 718789, Total 4340441
Feb 9, 2018: GTS 3647602, Beta 718789, Total 4366391
Feb 19, 2018: GTS 3740505, Beta 713310, Total 4453815
Feb 26, 2018: GTS 3818613, Beta 713310, Total 4531923
Mar 4, 2018: GTS 3885703, Beta 708733, Total 4594436
Mar 12, 2018: GTS 3962581, Beta 704265, Total 4666846
Mar 19, 2018: GTS 4030113, Beta 704265, Total 4734378
Mar 26, 2018: GTS 4088249, Beta 704265, Total 4792514
Aug 6, 2018: GTS 5262454, Beta 660346, Total 5922800
Aug 13, 2018: GTS 5305518, Beta 660346, Total 5965874
Aug 21, 2018: GTS 5367021, Beta 660346, Total 6027367
Aug 29, 2018: GTS 5442650, Beta 640842, Total 6083492
Sep 10, 2018: GTS 5540585, Beta 636684, Total 6177269
Sep 27, 2018: GTS 5656841, Beta 636684, Total 6293525
Dec 18, 2018: GTS 6235947, Beta 636684, Total 6872631
Jan 15, 2019: GTS 6795169, Beta 621204, Total 7416373
Feb 21, 2019: GTS 7095110, Beta 621204, Total 7716314
Feb 13, 2020: GTS 9481623, Beta 569362, Total 10050985
Feb 20, 2020: GTS 9528488, Beta 568948, Total 10097449
Feb 26, 2020: GTS 9572976, Beta 568948, Total 10141937
Mar 29, 2020: GTS 9910480, Beta 568948, Total 10479428
Apr 4, 2020: GTS 10034395, Beta 568948, Total 10603343
Apr 15, 2020: GTS 10194394, Beta 568948, Total 10763355
Dec 20, 2021: GTS 15157366, Beta 515640, Total 15673006
Notes
- All the data were extracted from the API URL https://www.gran-turismo.com/us/api/gt7sp/profile/ (yeap GTS is called GT7SP internally) where I made a basic POST call calling Job 1 that returns 4 data: psn_id, status, profile number and country.
- I use the most basic call to get the data called Job 1. There are others Jobs that returns more data like hours player, cars owned, races won, etc... all activity data can be extracted.
- There are others sites with similar data but they just extracted 10% of the base and extrapolated to get the full picture. My data will divert from them a lot because mine is exactly what you have on GTS site without any extrapolation or estimations.
- Status are divided in two numbers: 1 - Profile that played GTS final game and 2 - Profile that played only the Beta. If a profile with status 2 (Beta only) play the game today then it changed to status 1. I will try to track these Beta only profiles to see if they changed to 1 regularly.
- Some profiles numbers can't be extracted because the API returns error while the GTS site works fine, it is about 700 profiles that I will try to cover manually in the future.
- The country is determined by the PSN location (I'm from Brasil but my PSN is US so I'm counted in US numbers).
- Profiles are PSN users that played the game and not game sales. Used games and family sharing can increase that number even when you had only one copy sold.
All the data extracted can be checked in this csv file (comma separated values): https://1drv.ms/u/s!AsRlMSDzwvw8g3OPhbR6SzdjVjqqold data.- I will try to update the file and thread at least once per week. That way you will know how many profiles where created in GTS since the last time.
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