Thread has been... interesting.
Long post incoming:
Ultimately, it depends on what the objective of the exclusives are. Sony are using their AAA current-gen exclusives to drive hardware install base, which in turn drives up first and third party software sales through the economies of scale, earning Sony their revenue.
This means they want to restrict access to those AAA current-gen exclusives to a per-licence basis. Every 1 licence sold roughly - and I stress roughly - equates to a sold unit of hardware in the wild. You either buy the licence - either via the disc or digital download - and play it on the machine you purchased, or you don't get to play the game. After that initial hardware purchase, you're in their ecosystem, and buying new content. This strategy puts Playstations under TVs, and will continue to do so.
Microsoft lost that game when the Xbox brand imploded under Mattrick. Much like Nintendo, they've indirectly acknowledged that they just cannot break Sony's stranglehold on the home console market. And you don't spend billions hand over fist to come out second.
So, wisely, they're now playing a different ball game. Nintendo did the same, and they leaned into their niche, and have the stranglehold on the handheld market - and God help whoever wants to compete with Nintendo there. Because Nintendo's strategy is ultimately the same as Sony's, Nintendo won't be offering up their exclusives for pennies any time soon.
This leaves Microsoft in the not-great position of being unable to compete in home consoles, or in handhelds. So, they've leaned into their own niche - Xbox is multi-platform, while Sony and Nintendo are single-platform.
The end result is, effectively, Microsoft attempting to create the mythical "Netflix for Games". The console is simply an access point for their service. Can't afford a gaming PC? Buy an Xbox, get their service, play all the games you want. Do have a gaming PC? Cool, just buy their service anyway, and play all the games you want.
This gives their service the potential customer base of all of Windows 10 -
which is more than every console Sony and Nintendo have ever made combined.
The benefits of this are obvious and enormous - Sony needs to convince you their latest 10 hour mostly-cinematic game is worth AU$100.00. Microsoft just needs to convince you that their latest title is worth AU$20.00, with the added benefit of the entire back catalogue of the Xbox brand thrown in. And once you're in Microsoft's ecosystem, and realise the value on offer, you're much more likely to throw them another AU$20.00 then fork out another AU$100.00 to Sony.
Microsoft are banking on sheer volume - that they can convince millions more people to pay AU$20.00 than they ever could to pay AU$100.00. And make no mistake - while Stadia is going to crash and burn, Microsoft are banking on local compute for their service - you download and execute the game on your local machine, giving you the full-fat experience.
Sony need the absolute highest quality exclusives - enough to justify the full price tag - to drive their business model. And so far, they're doing pretty darn well, so they have no reason to change.
Microsoft with their service, on the other hand, really just needs decent quality releases, but at a much higher volume. New releases every month to keep you paying that monthly fee. They can fall back on the full price sales for a while, but they're banking on gamers thinking getting a full play through of Gear 5 for a few bucks is such crazy value that Microsoft have lost their minds. Judging from this thread, Microsoft know their market.
Interesting times ahead, but you'd be a fool if you think Microsoft aren't going to make some serious money in the days ahead.